You are correct, however, did you notice.... and I'm sure you did.... there is a larger stain closer to the house, on the soffit. That stain is not from the kick-out flashing at the gutter. There is also staining.... mold.... under the siding on the wall of the house.... I'm guessing the garage wall. It should have some staining on the drywall inside the garage.... maybe even the ceiling. The reason: there is another defect in the flashing at the corner 2 feet up the roof. Check me. Let me know what you find out.