The DFS Build brings you a fresh look at daily fantasy slates regularly. Join Kevin Roberts and Taylor Smith as they breakdown player salaries, game environments, and point you to the best and worst plays for your DFS lineups.
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in theory. it's the plays most likely to land there, although nothing is guaranteed. a player landing in the optimal 1% can be in the winning lineup and a player 99% optimal can not, etc
Even last season, ATL & TX ALWAYS fail me, so maybe you two should go all-in on them lol. I like Luzardo a LOT. Go check out the game logs of good/elite lefties SD have faced this year. Shota, Ranger, Lidolo, Sale, even Kyle Harrison ALL have had between 20-35ish FP against them. Imma 🔒Luz at 8k, and NY, COL, PHI stacks for my three lineups. Thanks Kevin & Taylor!
When I say over weight, I just mean if you're max entering a contest (20 max, 150 max, etc) that I'd increase my exposure for some low-owned guys to be over-weight (more owned than the field/other people) and then decrease my exposure/ownership on some chalkier guys. Ex: if Naz Reid is going to be that owned, I will gladly play Jaden McDaniels more than the field and play Naz considerably less than the field. I don't mean to say you have to do ALL of these leverage plays at the same time, especially for SE. It's not possible, either. So one decent strategy for SE could be to eat the Luka/Edwards/Naz chalk, and just play a low-owned guy at captain and then maybe play NAW or Jaden Hardy instead of Kyle Anderson or Josh Green at Util. Using that strategy, I have PJ in the captain, I am eating the edwards/luka/gafford/kyle chalk, and I am fading Naz and playing a low-owned McDaniels instead. That ensures you get the top plays that are high-owned, but you still make your lineup different. Another option is to just captain Luka and not worry about how owned he is, eat the chalky Naz, kyle, and gafford, and get different by playing a low-owned naw instead of josh green. IMO that isn't really different enough to avoid duplicate lineups and tying up top, so I prefer the first strategy. Just keep in mind that giving you a lineup guarantees nothing. It's more about the process and whether you get the exact combination/lineup that actually wins is going to require a little luck (and probably a lot of lineups). Hope that helps!
Ownership can inflate in SE. dfs hero projections are general so the numbers aren’t always going to be exact but typically you can assume players will be a bit more owned in SE if they’re good plays
Wonder if Jrue is the optimal CPT again? I hope not lol. I hope this slate makes sense at the least, but I'm afraid of a blowout. Thanks Kevin and good luck 👍
Leverage refers to a player at high ownership that we might fade or be under weight on. We can gain leverage on the field by playing another player at less ownership
@@TheDFSBuild Same. I had a stack with the Rangers that ALMOST got there, but like usual, whenever I stack elite teams when they're low-owned, they never do SQUAT when I need them lol. I smashed pitching, it's always the stacks that never go off when you need'em too smh.
@@TheDFSBuild Damn, that sucks...Today, my stacks sucked. I had a Baltimore stack today and they scored only 51 FP... while also scoring 11 runs! 😭 O'Hearn+Cowser+Henderson only scored 16 pts combined...💀
It would be tough to give advice without knowing the contest type and amount of people, plus your general strategy. If you have a lineup tool you can 1. run lineups to see what the system produces and also 2. check projections to view the best OF options for that slate.
You can do whatever you want at Captain for Showdowns, BUT I also look at how many times that player appears in the captain in the optimal lineup. Tatum is at 46% for tonight and TJ is at like 2%. Doesn't mean you can't do that, but ideally we have sound reasoning for those types of plays. Ex: Where does McConnell rank for projection, floor, or ceiling? Right now he's 9th for all 3. So while you can play him (esp if you think the game blows out, probably), he might not be the best play there in relation to the other plays.
I mostly look at player projections (floor/ceiling) and then look at ownership. I tend to go away from chalky captains, but keep them in UTIL if they warrant it
@@cnoforever depends on the slate and the player price. if a guy is priced at $9k and his projection is 40 pts, that's fine, but I'd want a bit more upside. if a guy is $6.5k and has the same projection, he is a smash play and I'd want to roster him a ton. This is less helpful for showdown slates, where I'd be focusing a lot on captain ownership and overall ownership when deciding my player exposure.
@@cnoforever if your mission is simply to cash, sure. to actually score a takedown, you probably still need another low-owned play. Ex: the top lineup last night had Jaden McDaniels in captain (3%), had 3 chalky plays (40% owned or much higher), had Kyrie at 32% and had kyle anderson at 13%. you don't necessarily have to go crazy and you don't want to play low-owned guys just for the sake of getting different. it all depends on what you deem to be "good" chalk, too. I'd say Tatum is very good chalk in the UTIL, personally, and then a lot of the top plays I broke down would also be good chalk to play and you'd just want to make 1 or 2 pivots to use some solid plays that might be going overlooked
I ended up getting to him a little in captain and it still wasn't enough haha. But yeah, maybe this is just who he is now for them? My gut is that it won't keep up, though.
Kat and Rudy just play similar positions. If Rudy gets all the rebounds and blocks then kat would need to blow up as a scorer. There really isn’t a ton of direct correlation in general in nba but I would rather not play them together due to pricing and ownership mostly. You totally can, I just probably won’t do it much.
If price is not an issue I prefer Siakam, as he projects better and has a higher ceiling. I also just feel like he's due for a big game. I like both, but I prefer Siakam if I have to choose one.
UPDATE: The more I look at this slate, the more I also love Miles McBride in the captain slot. I still prefer rolling with higher ceiling/floor options, but the lineup you get with McBride is very appealing. Good luck!
His price is nice and his own % isn't crazy, so he's viable in GPPs. I personally want a low owned Luka on this slate. But Kyrie can pop off at any point, so at this salary and ownership he's very much in play. I just won't personally be prioritizing him.
Yeah, my big move was going Luka (22% owned) over Tatum and it didn't really work out. My cavs plays all smashed. Horfy was again lame. He was my worst play. Had a decent lineup at 289 that couldn't cash.
Lineups are 8 players so you're basically asking for a lineup, which isn't something I am providing right now. The Knicks/Pacers game has more value when you look at salaries, high-end stars, and actual low salary options. My favorite plays are Hali, Brunson, Jamal Murray, Myles, Hartenstein, and Rudy. For punts, Miles McBride and Naz Reid look the best to me, but things can change.
Great as always. I love that you two aren't afraid to disagree with each other. I love transparency, so keep it up guys! I also love Oakland and paying up for pitching.
UPDATE: Donovan Mitchell is OUT. All Cavs are in play. Levert/Garland are core plays. Evan Mobley also looks fantastic. Blowout risk is very real here, of course.
I'd certainly get Garland/Levert into your lineups. I really like Luka at his current own %, too. Those are probably my 3 core plays. I also really like Dort/DJJ/Gafford/Horf for value.
Ik I'm late, but I had to let you know that I wasn't even THINKING about rostering Tatum AT ALL till I watched your vid and you noticed his trends of rebounds as of late. He's doing good early, so hopefully he keeps it up. Thanks and good luck!
@@TheDFSBuild I wanted to at LEAST fade him at CPT, but I couldn't pull the trigger! There wasn't a world tho where I was full fading him. No way. I did get different with Precious/Nesmith etc.
Kevin, you helped me BIG time on Friday. I locked Spida in cause of you, along with DiVicenzo & Harden. You even put me onto Gafford and I came in 4th place! My biggest win in about 3 months! Thanks a TON! 💯
