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Thank you Michael, that is very useful. I tend to go wrong in FMFR because of confirmation bias, I am looking for anything to support my selection and often just look at that 1 horse. Does this horse do OK over the distance/going/class? Good, then bet it without even looking at the opposition! Doesn't work out so well. I knew I was doing FMFR incorrectly, so this video will really help me to refocus my analysis.
Runner Jacket 8. Tillietudlem (FR) 4/1J Slowly into stride, held up in rear, headway 6f out, effort on inside over 3f out, chased leader approaching final furlong, edged left stayed on to lead towards finish, all out (op 9-2) 2 (8) hd 6. Mason Hindmarsh 9/2 Mid-division, headway 6f out, soon chasing leaders, slipped bend over 3f out, stayed on well inside final furlong (jockey said gelding slipped on bend turn for home) (op 11-2) hd [½] 9. Capable Guest (IRE) 16/1 In rear division, headway 6f out, ridden and outpaced over 3f out, stayed on well approaching final furlong, finished well nk [¾] 11. Drop The Hammer 8/1 Led 1f, with leader, led over 4f out, 3 lengths clear over 1f out, headed, crowded and no extra near finish (op 13-2) 1¼ [2]
Absolutely it can. We have an updated version on www.raceadvisor.co.uk called the Race Predictor. This tool automatically finds the most predictive factors based on the race conditions, then uses these to run a monte carlo simulation, which gives a percentage chance of winning and is then compared directly with the live markets to indicate value. You can run it free on five races once you've registered an account.
This video was taken on our Classic website, which is now only available to our Pro users as we are migrating the tools over to our new website at www.raceadvisor.co.uk
Our RA Pro membership has a system builder to do the analysis on our Classic website. We will be migrating and updating it for our new website later this year. You can find out more about RA Pro at welcome.raceadvisor.co.uk/race-advisor-pro and you can see our new website at raceadvisor.co.uk/
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@@raceadvisor I appreciate that, and I can tell a lot of work has gone into the site, but like so many things, you don't know the value until you try it for a while, even if it's 24h access. But because the price on a race by race basis is cheap, I know why you've replied as you have. It's a product confidence thing I guess.
Not quite, a spin of coin is a 50/50 chance of it landing heads or tails. In horse racing one horse will have a greater (or lesser) chance of beating the other. Determining that chance is the key to assessing if the odds are offering value.
Nope we do not hit 80%, the top three are 53%. Although I believe the 80% was what he claimed to get after his entire selection process, not just from the ratings alone.
I'd recommend always considering ground, distance, weight and race type as a minimum. Then ideally a form rating and a speed rating, or a rating which contains those elements.
Sorry thats all well & good showing a tabulated sheet of numbers in which all you did was change the number's to suit your approach of to you final explanation..... If for example all those number's/odds where in fact horses you would have had to back each of those animals at your amended odds or of course much better odds however, how does the form anylist(who has to find those winners at your given number's or better before the race/results)know at the time of that selection process if its value prior to the result/sp/gamble? All of this presentation is based on changeable post results and has nothing to do with finding the value prior to your tabulated explanation!!!! I fully understand what your saying however its all post race!... the successful punter has to find the winning result before.... Therefore value has to be found before mathematics can be even introduced.... As always good luck to us all 🏇😁👍
You will not know at the time of placing your bet, for sure, if you have value or not. Practice and instinct will allow you to make an accurate enough decision over time. As I say in the video, the only way to know is historically over a large number of selections. If you aren’t finding value then you research your statistics, find your strengths and weaknesses, tweak your analysis and keep going. Repeat these adjustments over time with the aim of bringing your winning percentage higher than the average odds percentage.
@@scary19682 you would think so, that is what seems logical, but it's mathematically it's not the case. You can get a lot of winners and make a loss. A common example of this is the favourite. How do you make the loss? Because you win less than the odds indicate you should. Take 2023 (13,852 horses) the odds of the horses indicated there should have been 4582 winners. There were actually 4516. Meaning that the odds indicated a 33% winning rate and there was actually a 32.60% winning rate. This means there is no value, and the cause of the -3.68% loss. If they had won more than 33% then they would have been winning more than their odds indicated, which would have meant a profit.
@@raceadvisorI cannot agree Sir, further explaining of your Math is not justifying the knowledge of subject required in the first place to get or understand you have got the value/beating the price... in this case horses(the subject can be anything of course) your giving out fictitious figures as if you have already secured the value over a long term in the first place!!! Selection of wager is first thereafter the figures worked out in relation to results those results are not changeable in real terms once selections are made & played, you have however changed the figures to suit your presentation!!!! My point being you cannot change the horse/golfer/football team after you have bet can you.... You're basically getting the tail to wag the dog Sir.... Should you proof you wagers first in whatever sphere you choose to punt over say 10 bets then put up a show of how you staked prior to your Math & repeating say 20 times you would then be showing a true value presentation 👍 & in turn proving that the value came at the Selection stage & not with just number's.... Anyone can do number's, let's face it we all know 2+2=4 however if I can make it 5 does that mean I got the value? No, it just means I got 3/1 for a horse that was/should be 2/1... proving that value is in the source not the figures😮😮😮 As always good luck to us all 👍🏇😁
@@raceadvisor Really...are you saying with all these data points for each horse...checked and cross checked...then millions of simulations run...it still won't be profitable as a stand alone and further analysis will be needed....How can we do more analysis than you have already done?? I guess we are just banging our heads against a wall trying to find something that actually works as is...Even with all the data on every horse..Wow
@@davidhampson1958 we can never say anything will be guaranteed profitable. But there are a few things at play. If it was stand alone profitable, it may not be for long with a lot of people using it as any advantage would become eroded. That doesn't mean it won't be predictive, it just means the odds on the strongest horses will be pushed lower than they should be. However, if you use this alongside the FMFR method, or any other form of additional analysis, everybody will be betting on slightly different runners, this helps to prevent odds from being pushed down.
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Grade one, class one, my first dekba is second & third favourites. Nearly rllays call G1, class 1 favourites as a bookies bonus, like All Wednesdays runnings, flrt, NH & nationals, ROI divna ken but Weds racing lost, phenomenal.
Just for information , because apart from the horse who actually won no mention is made of any of the other results in the race ( which suprises me when you are trying to demonstrate a winning system - or was it a software demonstration I forget) . The important results were :- 1st : Esspeegee 2nd : Thawry 3rd : Smart Lass 4th : Convivial 5th : Oakmont 6th : Liva So that pesky good for nothing horse Convivial managed to finish 2 places higher than the chosen one !! Worth a ponder ....
That was a great video Michael both in terms of the information and the overall presentation of the video. Thanks for including the links in the description for the written information so we can delve further into them. Im relatively new to following the race advisor website but have found the information so beneficial already and love the fact that you only pay for what you use. Look forward to the next video.
Thank you, Michael - very useful! I have had some success with "The Biggest Class Movers" section on the Race Advisor site. (Something you were alluding to at the end of this Vid?) Please keep these videos coming! 👍👍
Great to hear you found it useful, and even greater to hear you are having some success with the Biggest Class Movers on the website. I will definitely keep the videos coming, I'm aiming at getting faster at making them :D
Cheers mate - presentation really jazzed up. Maybe a little more on using Prize Money instead of/in addition to and some info on Irish Racing would be the next step.
Thank you Jonathon, it was a learning curve on the jazzing, but getting there :) good thought on the more details on using Prize Money and info on Irish racing. It's on my list now!
