Ashville has become a democRAT stronghold. Godless, baby killing war mongers. It's very sad that innocent decent people from Tennessee have to suffer due to the justice being handed down to the filthy democRATS.
I think we'll continue to waffle up and down near 500k median until some kind of economic event. But considering middle TN only lost ~20% during the 08 crash where the greater market lost 50+, and since then we've had crazy net inbound migration, I think the market here will (unfortunately for buyers like me) remain resilient. I also heard a podcast recently that said the "back to office" thing has kind of stabilized based on some recent data and the 20-25% remote work should be the norm for the next 5 years, then will likely slowly increase with technology making it easier and more productive. So at this point I'm just watching the balance between rents and mortgage payments. When they get pretty close, or I can find a deal that gets a payment comparable to rents, I'll consider buying. With those numbers out of balance, that tells me there is more room for downside (which of course may never come).
I was the guy who told you couple videos ago not to worry too much about Asurion. As you mentioned in the video, no big deal. It’s their annual “purge” they do every Q4 start. It literally happens every year-according to my two friends that are long-time employees there.
As someone who was a licensed property and casualty agent (insurance), I had to take flood insurance training. This hospital was put in a fish bowl. River on one side and interstate on the other. You need to put important infrastructure and facilities on higher ground. The high school wasn't flooded. Local residents need to make their public officials accountable and show up to local meetings when these things are decided. You may not be interested in politics but politics is interested in you!
It was! And apparently built in 2018!? I have so many questions. Would be curious if you’re open to a phone call or interview. Would like to get your perspective on flood insurance and risks. I think this would be interesting to viewers.
I do not think inflation is all about fed spending. What about all these countries dropping the dollar. The last one to drop the dollar was Japan. This will cause more damage than fed spending.
The scale of the damage from hurricane Helene will certainly push lots of people inward, at least temporarily. I suspect the absorption of multi-family and new builds will see a considerable bump in the upcoming months from enhanced relocations. Just a thought.
So sad to hear about East TN and what they are going through. Glad you and family are ok. Why are 50% of the homes empty? Investor owned flips, previous rental, AirBNB, or are owners just moving out of the area?
I don’t think it’s people moving out of the area. A lot of it is new builds. But a lot of people have moved first then decided to sell. I have seen this a lot. I do think Airbnb is significant too though I would need to do more analysis to prove that.
🌴🌴🌴. It would really surprise me if the Nashville and surrounding areas are going to be a hot market for the next six months or so. I still believe that triple digits have to happen before things get any better. But then again it’s just a very strange market and no one really knows. I wonder if all those areas that flooded were actually in flood zones? Thank you Ethan, Carlos
The housing market always drags behind the other economy indicators by months. The next couple months will be interesting to watch. In Sumner County we still see the homes below 600k move after several price reductions, but the million dollar homes are sitting. Only 4 times has a Federal rate cut helped the economy and that was because the economy was healthy. All the others signaled a serious recession and a housing crash. They say inflation is down but every restaurant we've gone to lately has new menus with higher prices. Ask people who work in the grocery business and they will tell you every price change continues to increase by $ to $$. The stock market is almost at 200% over value again after a slight down turn. Everyone knows it can't hold here and history shows there is always a big crash coming. Is the government manipulating the numbers like they have been with the jobs numbers to make the economy look better than it is? A lot to consider before buying a home right now.
Warren Buffet said if something seems impossible it will correct itself. I like that line. The math isn’t adding up right now. Will be interesting to watch.
Have you considered there is a increase in violent crimes, murders and that tornado that took out half of Madison, and it was low income areas without insurance?
That tornado took out a large number of houses and even a year later they aren't fixed, many people took the money and left. My neighbor moved out because of the crime rate, another person had a homeless man od in their back yard, they moved .... We have large corporations buying the land and removing the houses here in favor of apartments. There is no bus or public transit, and you have to deal with the airport.
Three has been three shooting in my neighborhood in the last six months after years of no gun crimes..... And the tornado ruined a lot of the walking trails and public areas and the city is doing nothing to reopen it, they do nothing about the increase in homeless here....
This current administration is the most corrupt in USA history. They're lying, stealing, giving inside information to ALL the big Institutional traders well in advance of official releases. Unemployment data, A lie, GDP data, a lie, Housing data, a lie, inflation data, a lie. The illegal mega tech monopolies, amzn, googl, meta, appl ALL own this government lock stock and barrel. The entire country is based on a massive bunch of lies.
Selling equities and paying full cash for a 4 bedroom home with a pool in Nashville that costs less than our one bedroom apartment in NJ. Moving down in two months without a job.
@@idlewild that’s amazing. Would be interested to hear more if you’re willing to share your story. Is it 100% about affordability or is there more to it?
It's logical that, after a long period where 'too-high' interest rates just stopped people from selling or buying, there is pent-up demand. - there are people who have been wanting to move but qualifying for their next home was tough due to high rates - there are first-time buyers who have remained stuck being renters for the same reason, high rates Inventory locally of available homes for sale has doubled over last year. If not for the high interest rates, a lot of those homes would have been sold, and the inventory wouldn't be so high. The Fed just announced they're likely going to be lowering rates a couple more times this year. "Why try to qualify for a home loan now, with rates coming down." That's a factor. Another factor: correct or not, a lot of people believe "home prices will drop" because "they're too high" .
@@EthanFlynn Yes, agreed, for at least 2 reasons: 1) pent-up demand. The longer someone's been waiting, they're more willing to be flexible on terms 2) most people listen to experts and 100% know that the 10 years of 3% rates are not returning, it was an 'outlier' caused by the 2008-09 crash There are likely hundreds of thousands who have put off a move and 5% will do it for a lot of them. Only exception: if the job market deteriorates more. That might prolong the return to normal buying
As recession & job losses hits, people are called back to the office you will see prices go down in these rural areas like east TN. Its a nice place to get away to but if there is no industry there, the only permanent residents will be retirees and locals who are already used to substandard economic opportunity.
Did you watch the video? Not sure what it is you’re referring to.
12 дней назад
@@EthanFlynn yes, I enjoyed the video as always. You have developed a sharply negative bent towards the economy. You mentioned multiple times that the recession has started. This is not backed up by any data. But cheers!
Way more layoffs right now than a year ago. I don’t know what evidence I should be showing. I would be curious your take on the Anna Wong interview. She is very compelling about the timing of incoming data and how it correlates to her base case.
You are spot on. I’m a local business owner here in Nashville (lived here since 2017). We are going remote and I am getting out of here for greener (cheaper pastures) in Wilmington NC. The beach def won’t hurt 😉 My biggest regret for sure was never thinking to buy a home in the nations / downtown (all places I rented). As much as the economy is truly nearing a recession and/or in one I think Nashville will be rather insulated. Hell, my high rise apartment complex downtown is filled with people from CA and NY that have no complains on the insane rent prices and hikes. What we pay now for our nicer unit I’d never imagine being possible in 2018. The fact of the matter is Nashville will grow faster than most other cities in the next 10 years. There isn’t much stopping it. Who the hell wants to get taxed to death for year round for sunshine with a side of crap public schools and rampant crime? No one.. I’ll miss some of TN but what Nashville is becoming is a glorified LA of the south. A lot of local businesses I’ve come to love (bars, restaurants, etc) have all gone out of business and are replaced by PE backed chains. Not to mention the city itself caters to the tourists that disrespect our downtown city and treat it like the Vegas strip. I’ll get off my soapbox now but very interesting seeing your channel spit the data to back my basic theories! Keep it up 👍
I think and I could be wrong but, the more people go to one place, the census there changes. And when they do the census for government, and find that population went up, surely taxes will follow.
@@Bossdup yeah, I just doubt it pushes anyone away besides a few locals which is sad. The no income taxes and others benefits alone keep the CA/NY folks happy.
This is clickbait folks - Want the truth (the legal truth in Tennessee - where you can net Felonies for almost literally everything) go to Tennessee's Warn Act Notice listing and click on Davidson county (where Nashville is located). The only lay offs have been food industry sectors and the last one occured in July. Employers with more than 50 employees must warn the state - per federal law. The only massive layoff in Tennessee period this year is National Aerospace Solutions a contractor for the Department of Defense that had 1700 employees at the old Arnold Air Force Base in Tullahoma. 2 hours + south of Nashville. And again....not banking
@@majordddd Yes, I know that. I am saying they are "MUCH" worse. By virtue of the massive leverage in ALL economic sectors. Not just real state, like in 07.
It's also worth noting that recessions are usually declared well after the fact. The recession that was declared in '08 was dated almost a year prior in '07.
The devil is in the details (deed/title records). Who are the buyers driving the demand and high prices? LLCs? Institutions? Hedge funds? Wealthy foreigners?
Employees have been the pawns of companies since the early 2000’s. Since contract labor has been widely available, unless you are a key player in revenue for your company, you’re expendable.
the job market is soft, but it's not crazy layoffs just yet. i think with the feds cutting rates and going through a cut cycle you will see some steady job reports until inflation kicks back in q4 2025 and then the mass layoffs happen. then the real estate market will finally hit the correction to maybe around 2020 prices. the feds dumped so much liqudity into the market that i dont think you will see a great recession reset, but who knows.
Define crazy lay off These big tech companies doing batches of 10k people hitting the fan Most job numbers are revised DOWN 800k jobs just got erased I’m not crazy to say books are cooked but just how bad can it get at this rate?
I have 2 close friends who work at Asurion. They have done layoffs every Q4 for the last 3 years. This isn't anything new or alarming unless it's a unusally large layoff or something.
🌴🌴🌴 This Country has been laying off people by thousands a day and it’s only going to get much worse. We are in a recession no matter what the terms have changed for this. Thank you so much Ethan for covering this. I listen to the Economic Ninja every day and when he said about a year ago that we would see layoffs happening by thousands a day… Well I just didn’t believe it but now it’s Definitely happening. I’m saving my money 💵, paying off debts and getting my credit score as high as possible so that when TSHF I’ll be ready to take advantage of some of the best awesome deals because of this crash 💥. Thank you Sir, Carlos
@@EthanFlynn Well all I can say is that I’ve learned tons from watching “the Economic Ninja”, he’s a good friend of mine and he really does some heavy deep dives into the news and then brings it to us. You really should check out his channel. He also has many friends who give him information from their sources (and he never gives out names to protect them). I know that you would enjoy watching his channel. Thank you, Carlos
Anna Wong Interview here -> ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-hlA961XIJp8.htmlsi=abWTvdYMyOuqwSGr www.ethanflynn.com Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com/
Great analysis as always. I am curious, does that rental trend include incentives? I know in a previous video you showed that a lot of multi-family were offering 2-4 weeks free. Some folks even reported getting free months for renewal. If that isn't factored in rents may be down a good bit more than the data shows.
Thank you! Typically CoStar and other sources try to account for that calling it "effective rent" to account for the discounts. I would say the trend it shows is pretty good. How accurate the actual pricing they show is questionable.
How big are they? Also how unique are they? What's your pricing? I'm happy to look at it with you. I'm learning about the space. Feel free to reach out. Contact in the description.
That Building next to Loews was protested. It was stated to house Vanderbilt Students on the fencing along the road. I am seeing far more Florida tags than California tags now. The main reason? Insurance. People in Florida can not afford or can even get Insurance in FL. There are also huge Muti family residences in Donelson sitting empty. Rent rates are out of control and Locals will not pay that and are leaving in droves. I too, am leaving the state.. and possibly the country.
Maybe the Air(heads)B&B are giving up on their get rich quick schemes and maybe they'll actually come back to the real world and sell their house for a real world price.
We owned/operated residential CRE properties in San Jose, California from 1993 through 2017. This is in reference to the informative migration map you showed at time 1:35 thereabouts. This will partly explain the flight out of California. As you look at this video, I want to say something. When we sold everything and fled California in 2017, all the boarded-up businesses you see in the video - including a large Chase Bank branch (where I banked), the T-Mobile store (where I shopped due to having a T-Mobile phone) and all the others businesses *_WERE OPERATING, AND VIBRANT_* There's a list of reasons we left. But as you look at this video, keep in mind, San Jose is the largest city in what is known as "Silicon Valley" The wife and I graduated from college (Berkeley and UCSF) and built our early careers there. This is a shocking look at Silicon Valley's most important city. Silicon Valley (aka Santa Clara County, in the southern part of the San Francisco Bay Area) is home to: Apple Computer Google Ebay Paypal Intel Hewlett-Packard Adobe Systems (headquarters located in downtown San Jose) Nvidia ......and so on. Here is what San Jose collapsed to. There was a large Safeway supermarket that I watched being built in 2008-09. It closed in 2019. Nearly every business is boarded up. There is so much money in Silicon Valley, it's astonishing that this was allowed to happen: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-xX3UjVgyb60.html San Francisco is just as bad, or worse. It's like a clueless 3rd world country that lost its mind.
My realtor friend said the consensus is that the rate drops will likely bring more people to sell & so more listings… then again we would also see more buyers if those people were waiting for a more favorable time to buy.
Sounds like what I predicted a couple of years ago. New builds are a better value than existing, especially when you consider depreciation and remodeling cost. I think I could be my own general contractor again and save a few hundred thousand $. That's would do again except I don't want to tie up that much cash when I sense a better opportunity coming in the stock market.
Eathan..Check out Twelve Twelve in the gulch. Two bedrooms and selling for the price of one bedrooms a few years ago and several of the sellers are going to loose substantial $$.
Great stuff as usual! Actionable data weeks before everyone else confirms it. Inbound Migration seems to justify the supply of existing and new builds supply we see coming 2024-2025.
