My personal finance and investing journey. Growing up poor I had the odds stacked against me and didn't know anything about money. I was working in construction while going to college and could never get ahead. Eventually I went to law school and graduated at the top of my class with a law degree and a lot of debt. I began working in mergers and acquisitions and learning about investing. Now I'm debt free, own a house in DC (still with mortgage) and a condo in Florida (paid off) and have enough money that I thinking about early retirement.
Nothing here should be interpreted as investment advice or recommendations. All content is for educational and informational purposes only. The accuracy of any statement can not be guaranteed and should not be relied upon. I may change my mind about anything I said at any time and will not update any prior statements. Everything here is my opinion only, nothing I see here is the opinion of the place I work or anyone I work with.
I’ve been into kracken for over 6 years . I got into it when it was $0.28-$0.38 bought shares and held and still will hold ! This is an amazing company and will be $10-$20 dollars in 5-10 years 🫡💯but the dips …. But now we are off to the races 🐎
I just do what Buffett suggested. I "start with the As". I read a lot and look at a lot of stocks and 99% of them I will reject in 30 seconds. But if you keep doing that, then eventually you find something good like bargain hunting in a flea market.
@@AlmostELV you can find news articles on it. Their was a lawsuit by a large shareholder who wanted to keep it together etc. Bottom line, that's off the table.
@@musclerussell8109 yes. The Ammo business is mismanaged and the new factory rollout is not going according to plan. GunBroker is still and interesting asset, but "the pickle is in the jar" and if you can't get it out, it's not great.
Yes. They own small percentages of larger stuff and when someone drills there, they can kick in for the cost of drilling and they get to participate or they can pass on it and they don't put up money but don't get the profit if the well makes money. I will do another video on VTS soon. I still own most of my shares (up 50% or so plus divendends) but I think there is cheaper stuff out there and I don't like that they are buying more leases if they still haven't been monetizing the other 80% of stuff they already own. Some people are obsessed with empire building and in real estate they keep building or in shipping buying more ships, or in oil getting More wells. I hope it's not the case with VTS. In any event, if they price if oil goes higher they will make a lot of money even if they do make some foolish decisions along the way. And there is heavy insider ownership and you tend to make less dumb mistakes when your own money is on the line.
Nothing much. I will sell about 10% of highest cost shares (up about 40% in the last 12 months ) and hold onto the shares I bought cheaper. Even If the red sea situation ends tomorrow prices won't drop immediately because s lot of those ships have already been booked. Long-term STNG will probably do fine but I'm trying to focus on buying more long term compounders instead of cyclical companies or special situations.
Thanks, might be back in a few weeks. Been busy. Planning on doing something on Fairfax India, Nintendo or Coupang which I own. TV which I was bullish on did terribly, but STNG, SWBI, JOE, ATEX And VTS all did really well so it's a good idea for me to record the ideas so that I can get comments on what I might be overlooking or so that I don't give myself credit for being right for the wrong reasons.
I haven't been looking at it lately. Potash prices are below $300/ ton, they were twice that price when the video came out so I was right to be cautious about it. On the water side, frackers are suffering because of low oil prices. You can currently buy OXY for 10% less than Buffett was buying at. However, if you are patient IPI probably will come back because it has no debt so it's not likely to go under, and if you look at the price it's way below replacement cost for the assets. They will do about $75mm of capex this year, and the whole company is trading for $250mm, and if you include prior capex over the years, it's replacement cost is at least 2x. But it might take a while to get your money back because potash prices are lower so that's the left engine on the plane, and the new contract looks good but oil prices are low, and water for fracking is the right engine on the plane.
@@tanner9956 I didn't see it mentioned in the conference call transcript. I think those last for 3 years so would check to see when they filed those last one to see if they are just renewing it of if they plan to use it for something.
Thanks. It's only a small position but it's a nice bump. I don't want to chase it up, but if it comes down again I would buy more since the backlog increased and they bought back a lot of shares.
Excellent review enjoy the whole video especially the simplicity and your knowledge given your background actually myself looking into buying some of this company which I see enormous potential and I think just like all the advertising companies that went down and also because of the interest rate on loans going up I think if you buy four the long-term like you said I’m readyhave you purchase any more at a lower price after you had your position? Just curious.😊
I think you were early. That said, you’re right, they’re are a lot of assets buried in this company. Hopefully the new management will do a better job of realizing that value. One of the things I like about this company is their capital structure. At first glance they have a mountain of debt, but look how long they termed it out: late 2030’s, 2040s for a lot of it. That’s why they are repurchasing bonds at the long end, it’s been clobbered by higher rates. I think this company screens horribly. Which is why not to many people realize there is a gem here.
I hope you are right. I haven't bought more because I have a lot already, so I'll just sit and wait. I probably should have bought slower over time. The spinoffs of the sports team and Univision are the catalysts so I just need to be patient until then.
@@theunderdoginvestor if you like pure asset plays, look into the situation with Lufax. Chinese adr, has more cash in bank than market cap. PB is less than .20. I like TV better, because the delisting risk, but I believe the financials are above board because it’s a Ping An subsidiary. Good luck investing!
I don't usually comment but your video is aging well. Great research and I respect your approach. Not only did I learn a good deal about IPI beyond what I already had I particularly enjoyed you sharing general fundamentals of investing. Thanks for the effort you put into this.
If I were a shipowner I would have oil products tanker / chemical vessels, there are many bulk carriers, there is an oligopoly about container (and of course car carriers / cruise vessels) , everybody wants gas carriers , and oil tanks = problem (black fleet and pollution risk)... ferry and general cargo maybe good also... but as I said If I were a shipowner I would have oil products tanker / chemical, MR, LR1, LR2.... I believe this is an area that is not much explored
I sold out of NETI. Cadeler looks okay but they have 6 new ships to pay for now instead of 4 and interest rates are going up. They have also diluted shareholders in the past . And there have been some cancellations of projects/ bids recently in offshore because of price increases which make the project more expensive. Orstead just took a huge write down. Too hard pile for now.
Thanks for doing this video - very helpful. Are you still long this stock? If so, do you have a take on the recent 10K? NICS showed a slight decrease in long gun demand, and SWBI had a big decrease in sales and units shipped when compared to 2016-2019. SWBI cited 'competing products became more available through the replenishment of depleted channel inventory.." Curious if this has any affect your thoughts on long guns and overall thesis.
Earnings report comes out Thursday. The stock price is just noise. Quarterly numbers are a data point. Still holding probably until the new factory is operational and the efficiency starts flowing through the income statements
Yes, you're right. The shadow fleet should be counted, but it's like counting criminal behavior in GDP. You can make guesses about it but no one knows for sure how many ships are doing it because they don't want to be known.
If owned this stock since 2020. It has preformed well. But i am wondering if we are on the top of the cycle. Orderbooks have grown fast. Interesting video looking forward to an update
I haven't looked at the order book in a while, thanks for reminding me. I did see an article last month that when VLCC rates were spiking some older product tankers switched from clean to dirty, so that should help offset some of the new orders since you can't switch back from dirty to clean.
@@theunderdoginvestor that indeed might help but its more difficult to find information on tankers leaving the market . But there are a lot of old clean tankers that might counter balance the new orders.
Yes, shipping is a rough ride on the way down, but is great when you catch a wave. You have to know what you own and not overpay and it can be great if you have great timing or great patience.
@@tanner9956 great job 👍. www.offshorewind.biz/newsletter/ this is a free daily newsletter for the offshore wind industry which is good for keeping an eye on what is going on in this space. Tradewinds is a good one for shipping in general, but it requires a subscription. Good luck
Ive made a few thousand from vts, sinfe the spin off... Their mangement is very experienced and smazing. And they have a .50 cent dividend per share. Amazing company few have herd of. Expect big things from these guys!!!
Wonderful video, thanks a lot. Learnt a lot about shipping. A request can you please post or write about stocks which are down also. That would be very useful. Also how does this company compare to trmd which also have approval of Howard marks and a very similar valuation
I haven't looked at TORM. Marks recently filed something to sell his stake so he may have gotten the shares in some Pvt offer or debt restructuring rather than buying in the market. Last time I checked stng and the youngest fleet which makes it less risky bc you have more time for the thesis to play out. But with these terrible commodity cos sometimes you can make more in the worst company if the market moves in your direction. Management can help or hurt earnings a little, but like with an oil company most of your outcome will be a result of the market price for what you are offering. So I could find a terrible company to make more if I'm right, but I'd rather make less and protect my downside by investing with the best in breed.
Yea I was looking at this one. I wanted to wait until the quarterly report came out and I thought that the stock based compensation was way too much for a long term investment. I wish you and other investors the best of luck.
Most things in energy are trading sardines. If you don't like the way energy companies operate then don't even look at shipping. One company I know of the stock is down 80% , management did a merger by diluting the hell out of shareholders and laid themselves a $30 mln bonus for doing such a great job 😂
You might be right. I didn't like it at 30, but I have a small position now. $20 looks cheap, but there are other things on sale now. If it goes lower, I may add to it.
@@theunderdoginvestor agreed stocks I’m looking into is UFI for a turnaround in textiles TPC CMLS TV LL BIG I can’t remember all the ones but there’s some
@@tanner9956 there is a company called Itafos that is selling itself and taking bids. Price looks cheap, but I passed on it because I'm trying to get away from commodities. If you understand IPI it is a similar commodity fertilizer play. Not a recommendation, but look at the filings. I believe the major negative was the expiration of one of their mines. They may have gotten that taken care of before they put it up for sale.
Any comments on stock based compensation? from the income statement of this quater, it seems they are spending a significant amount of revenue in Equity-based compensation which is up by 370%?
I haven't looked at the quarterly statement to be honest. In the sec filing for the IPO i noticed that for the top people, there was a good amount of stock based comp, but it vested 50% in 2024, 25%in 2025 and 25% in 2026. So I felt like that was a good incentive to think longer term about monetizing the assets. What are your thoughts on the comp vs other competitors,?
I believe he owned Jefferies and got it in the spinoff, but haven't looked into it. It's always better to do your own pushups otherwise you can get burned like many did following Ackman into NFLX or Munger into BABA, or Buffett into IBM etc.
Given the size of the position, it was probably Todd or Ted, and they are smart enough to find it on their own, but it's good to know that they agree with me :)
Yes, that is me on COBF. I don't use my name bc i want to keep my hobby separate from my work life. My boss gave me permission to do this, but I prefer people not to Google me and associate my work with my personal opinions about things outside of the office.
Thanks. As Peter Lynch said , if you can add 8 + 8 and come up with a number close to 16, then you know enough math to be an investor. So there is still hope for me 😂
