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I started Wunderdog Sports in 2001 as a guy with a knack for picking NFL underdogs. I now provide sports predictions to half a million sports fans every day.
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I have recently started keeping track of scoring first in NHL and have found that out of my criteria, faster skating teams, more offensive zone time, winning more faceoffs and simply teams who shoot the puck more tend to get the first goal. Yesterday I went off my stats and bet with opinion that a +52% would not hit 3 times in a row. I lost and if I would have stayed with what my stat sheet was telling me I would have won. Where is the line drawn between stats saying 1 thing and outright probability of something? Inevitability does raise its ugly head. How do you decipher between what should and probably happen? I also bought a statistics for dummies book to see if I can learn anything.
Sounds like you are really digging in here, trying to educate yourself, and experiment. That is the best way! Part of the learning process is trying things in a safe way and internalizing the results. We make mistakes (cheaply) and learn from them, and try to avoid making the same mistakes in the future. So I think you are in the right path. In terms of deciphering between what should happen and what will probably happen, I am not sure exactly what you mean. We analyze and then try to predict what we think will happen, but we know that given the randomness, we can never be 100% right. On an even odds bet, we can only expect to be right about 54% of the time. That means when we are doing this right, we will be wrong 46% of the time.
This is what i call an idiot. Stop endorsing gambling its a statistical scam. Nobody who isnt wealthy and cant negotiate the games to make them more reasonable not even cause vegas will never give up their edge. If you're not super wealthy you 100% of the time will lose in the long run. Vegas dosent pay equal odds to the risk you are taking. Its a legal scam.
Hi. Theoretically if you had a bet that REALLY had a 70% chance of winning and you could get that at +120 or +125, that's an amazing bet and may justify a higher bankroll risk. But I am here to tell you that bet does not exist. True odds on a bet that has a 70% chance of winning is -233. VERY rarely would you find odds of +120 on that kind of bet. Theoretically it's possible, but you likely won't find that.
@@WunderdogSports okay this is nice information and I agree 💯. I don't understand how to find out probability of winning in football & tennis. And I'm from India where most of the betting sites are banned. It sucks 😔
There's no such thing as intelligent sports betting. People get in to it because they're "action junkies." They are there for the adrenaline rush. They don't care if they lose as long as they can cover it.
The NFL buzz has been on the injury to QB Aaron Rodgers, and with Dallas coming off that 40-0 blowout win over the Giants, this sets up as a classic overlay. Are you betting on this game? Post your predictions below!
Am from Africa Gambia and am very good in football and I play many role but my main role is midfielder and I get certificate on that just last year but due to poorverty am currently in Qatar working but I really want to go for my dream because I know that I can do it especially if I have help so how can I get one of taiwanese football team so that I can build my new carrier
Great topic... we all know that higher juice means you need a higher win percentage to stay profitable, but if you're hitting 75% with faves in the -200 to -250 range, that's golden.
Hey mate I’m from Australia trying to sign up to your website, but it won’t allow me to continue because I don’t have an American number. Is there anything you can do to help ?
Sign up here. No number required: www.wunderdog.com/free-picks. If you are having trouble purchasing or anything, hit us up here: www.wunderdog.com/support
Hey jeff chris from vegas last 11yrs and over 12000 hours i have been following numbers and patterns recognition at its finest from the odds makers opening lines everyday daily last 11yrs years. I just went live with my channel and tik tok .. question we on the same page?
Remember its very important to shop for positive EV bets 👈 that way when you lose on a team that CANT COVER? you can join all the other losers in your circle and talk about the "great value" you got on your team lol. Positive "ev" betting can lick the bottom of my sack!......im sure their is something Positive you'll find down there 🤣
This was so on point.. and the message well put. I recently lost a big bet by listening to so called experts on ESPN, so that part got me laughing so hard. I just subscribed to your channel Great job 👍
Hey boss, hope you were able to find it 🍗🍗 If you're looking for options for a new sportsbook, I suggest checking this list www.wunderdogsportsbooks.com/
