Join Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir each week as these two traders get together to discuss the market action while having a little fun in the process. So go ahead, grab a beer!
Great show, @spotgamma is fabulous. Delightfully coherent discussion of short vol trade starting to unravel Weds Aug 1 along w yen carry unwind more proximate cause of what was a bound to fail situation waiting for a suitable deleveraging kickstart. Thx for simple explanation
Meanwhile 99% of the world uses the dollar for trade. It's not even bipolar buddy, it's still just the US and will continue to be until somebody starts a war and beats the US.
Lots of overconfident cherry-picking from Marko, but maybe slightly less arrogant than during his Clocktower tenure. Marko left Clocktower because those "great hedge funds" that they seeded basically all failed, and the VC fund returns have been poor. Also, despite stating otherwise, he has regularly attempted to time short-term geopolitical outcomes, such as the Russia-Ukraine war. In that case, he suggested the war would never happen, that investors should buy Russian assets (which dropped 80-90% post-invasion), and that Putin would be out of office by March 2023. It's also worth noting that his geopolitical prognostications/conspiracy theories about the Fed's reaction function have been wildly wrong. For example, he repeatedly asserted that the Fed was "political" and would cut rates aggressively this year (without supporting data) in order to get Biden re-elected!! The much-discussed short oil call seems to be the only actual winner over the past several years and Marko continues to present that as unassailable proof that his "framework" actually works.
I do not think anyone knows anything about what will happen in the next 5 years. Everyone wants to believe life Is in an eternal continuation mode. I will not be offended if this comment is removed. My intent is not to rain on anyone's parade, I simply try to live within reality.
What is the obsession with reshoring manufacturing? Its like people want our grandchildren to be working on assembly lines bolting together robots that we sell to wealthy knowledge workers abroad.
At least they would have something to do not just fade away into death and despair. Rich people are not going to share without the poor doing some kind of work even if it is theatrical. They have a moral objection to increasing living standards.
Very selective summary of AI expert opinion. LeCun is one end of the spectrum. Do Hinton or Karpathy or Schmidhuber not count as experts? I enjoy this podcast but too often it sounds like you start with an opinion (pro commodities, anti-tech) and then look for evidence that supports that view.
Agree about the U.S. Ivy Leagues - they aren't worth the price tag today. I'm speaking as someone who went to a Seven Sisters college decades ago when it was more affordable. You can get a world-class education at U of T, U Waterloo, McGill and other schools in Canada. They don't toot their own horn, there's no snobby "prestige" element as such, but the brightest of these graduates are basically feeder-farm recruits for U.S. companies. I know a few of these students right now. Our AI research is cutting-edge. Sheridan College animation graduates are all over Hollywood animation studios.
Back to 1914 geopolitical environment. Let's hope there's no parallel to the Archduke assassination. But thinking probabilistically, there will be some analogue that happens. How it will play out will be interesting.
I don't know why the news media and macro podcasts like giving convoluted answers. Markets got stretched, growth is slowing after 2 years of elevated rates.
Great interview Patrick. I always love hearing Jesse's views on the market, he's one of the few that seem to really get it in regards to market actions.
