I take issue with this explanation. It's more or less split down the middle, with respect to whether the Fed reduces interest rates before or after the crash. The other problem I have with it is that, in my lifetime, the substance of the crash (economic deterioration) begins long before interest rates were dropped. The Austrian explanation of malinvestment is certainly correct; but the correlation between interest rates and the bust doesn't seem to be much better than chance.
before Milei (nov-2023): inflation rate: 10% exchange rate: appreciated. real wages: higher than now. first month after Milei devaluation: inflation rate: 25% (pass-trought of heavy ER devaluation) real wages: really low. exchange rate: really competivie, made a 120% ER variation but fixed it after to a 2% crawling peg. now Milei: inflation rate: 4% in last fourth months, inflation decelerated because of the fixed exhange rate. real wages: catching up to (nov-2023). exchange rate: even more appreciated than before the devaluation, it's the main nominal anchor. Argentina is one of the most expensive countries in USD dollars now. Big problem with Milei's plan: the economy is running out of USD dollars, the economy is in a recession (because of the fiscal adjustment and lower real wages) so it needs less imports (paid in dollars) and real wages are lower: but it's starting to wake up slowly and another devaluation is coming soon because the few dollars the central bank can buy are being used to fix the financial and commercial dollars price. Let's see how it goes, I don't think it's going to work because the same thing happened in all other administrations that used the ER as a nominal anchor to tame inflation: is the correct way to tame inflation but you need reserves (i.e. dollars) to do that: risk prime is going down so perhaps can borrow from financial markets a bit, but the country is already indebted heavily in foreign currency.
I'm from Argentina, This seemed like a impeccable explainition to me, sometimes the socialism ideologist always looking for founding the bad of the politicate right , open mouth when the right-wing president have mandate and they are blind when a socialist or comunist make a dictatorship(Nicolas Maduro) or deceptive and threatening political campaign(Sergio Massa "campaña del miedo")
@@benja3174 jajaja the fear campaign in which Massa claimed that ALL the things that were going to happen.. already did? like the prices doubling even 5 times what they used to be? like public transport going from $100 to $600? like people who commute to the city who used to pay $350 paying $3000 for a bus ride now so they have to expend like 20/30% of their monthly wage on transportation (that is private, STILL GETS GOVERMENT FUNDING and works like shit)? like wages and pensions not being adjusted to inflation AT ALL? like public healthcare and public university being at risk, like corruptly appointing family members in all of the government positions? like laura bonaparte mental health hospital (which Milei tried to personally) shut down only last week? Like Garrahan hospitals workers on strike because they dont get the supplies to perform surgery on CHILDREN and they are paid shit? Like the entire college system on strike because professors are paid around $300 a month -IF PAID-? Like cutting out funds for everything that was important to protect a "fiscal deficit " WHILE REMOVING TAXING FOR THE RICH? lol.
I never intended to open the video in the first place, so thats weird but as an argentinian I can say my rent went up by $130 only in the last 6 months, being the total $260 for a tiny studio apartment which might sound good for you thinking it on american wages but here minimum wage is only $200. Comparatively I also got two electricity bills for sep and oct of $85 and $90 each, when I dont even have a washing machine installed here. My country is only getting worse and worse, and surviving on a normal wage is getting tough.
This president arrived late...sadly the corrupt socialist drained the value of our coin, i'm sorry for your situation, i hope this problem it solve soon😢
Only the pensioners who get the minimum pension get that amount. Mostly those are the ones who got their pension without contributing to the fund. Because of the previous law ( that had a ridiculous index that resulted in owners getting less than the apts expenses) people removed their property from the market. That made prices go up. Those who benefitted were the few who were able to secure an apt at the beginning. The rest could not find a place to live! Please be honest and describe the full picture!
@@MsLoumon thats.. a lie? my grandpa was a firefighter and he makes like 350 a month, BOTH my grandmas were teachers and one of them makes only 280 or so, while the other makes around 400 because she worked in "danger zones", while insurances have stopped covering a LOT of medicines.
@@benja3174 jajajajaj i already replied to your other comment. You're 18 and probably mooch off your parents, start WORKING and paying for your own stuff and you will see the reality of things. This isnt new, Menem already did this to our country in the 90s (and Milei publicly admires him) and our country suffered GREATLY. Up until 2015, under "socialist" (lol, braindead) Cristina we had the highest paying wages and pensions of all of LATAM in dollars. One dollar was only 12 argentinian pesos! and look at us after Macri. Of course you wouldnt know, you were still pissing your bed.
@@benja3174 Don't let the propaganda fool you mate!, Milei is a complete disaster to the economy of his country, he promoted himself as an expert in economics and with his plan poverty increased in nine months more than the previous governments did in eight years.
@@MsLoumon Milei said he deserved the Nobel prize, while he put his country in recession, lowered the GDP and raised poverty and unemployment dramatically, this is product of his madness, it is known he lives medicated with clonazepam and sommit, and he talks about his dead dog as if it were alive
he whole MV=TP is wrong except for the case of a stagnant economy. In a free market if the velocity increases then there are more transaction, which means there are more goods, which means that the prices of earlier transactions are no longer correct
Copernicus also became the first person to set forth clearly the “quantity theory of money,” . The supply of money, he pointed out, is the major determinant of prices.
The whole Argentina debate is so contrived and ideological. Left wing activists and "intellectuals" only began to take an interest in the country after Milei came to power, after 70 years of their own economic policies brought the country to breaking point. But now they want immediate results? Turning towards a more free market approach is the only answer, and you are already seeing some signs of improvement in the data, but this is a long clean up.
If you knew about Argentina you would know that free market was implemented three times recently (Cavallo, Martinez de Hoz and Dujovne), and all three ended the same, with a huge debt to the IMF, and this time it looks it will end much worse, because reserves are being used to keep the exchange rate artificially low
@@HélpitiMartinez There's only one way of ending up with big debts to the IMF, that's by running huge deficits and spending money that you don't have. Tell me, did those ministers you mention cut back spending significantly? Because Argentina is great at spending. Spending money that you don't have is not a consequence of the free market, it's a consequence of having a government that is too big for its own economy. First you grow the economy, then you can grow the government, not the other way around. If Argentina reverts to big government peronism you will keep seeing the same results that you have seen. The rest of us will enjoy the fruits of a free economy with growth as we have for many years and Argentinians will try to scrape a living from rocks.
@@Skantezz things are a little more complicated, but mainly yes, the three ministers(and Milei as well) have cut back spending significantly, but as they wanted to keep a low exchange rate(so that dollars could be taken outside the country), they had to ask the IMF for money, so it is what you said, spending money that the country didn't have Unfortunately, none of the three presidents that broke the country were peronists, Milei isn´t also, and he is doing worse than the others mentioned, notice that since he took office, consumption and industrial production have decreased, there is a recession, the GDP is 3.4% lower, unemployment has increased by 20% and poverty has increased to 52.9%, and all this was done while he increased the taxes that he promised not to increase
I know there is no better way but it always strikes me that if financial forecasting was a car, we would drive it by looking into the rear view mirror…
Take into account that since Milei took office, consumption and production have dropped, there is a recession, the GDP is 3.4% lower, unemployment has risen by 20% and poverty has risen to 52.9%, and all this has increased rates. who promised not to increase, so anything not-liberal is preferable(socialist, peronist or conservative)
@@HélpitiMartinez Former parasites being unemployed, unable to consume, etc. is preferable to them leeching off the people. Those parasites make up a majority of those statistics you're worried about.
That's not a misunderstanding from that Isabelle creature, that's a lie. Isabelle is clearly a liar doing what liars do. Where I disagree with Bob is on the government spending i.e. if the government only borrows existing money to spend it, then I would argue that this does create inflation - because it will cause the velocity of exchange to speed up. MV=PY means that, with Y fixed, prices can increase from either growth in the money supply or growth in the velocity of circulation.
The problem in Argentina ( like so many other countries) is that those who get jobs in the government do not always do so because of their skills but rather because of their political connections.
I hate CPI as a measure bcz it’s largely nonsense. In Australia we devalued the currency via printing, and is now decreasing economic value/person. Instead of allowing leverage to decline, they import 5% of the population in immigration to fill primarily government jobs. It’s economic insanity.
I appreciate your approach to teaching.. To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough, we just need to hold onto our hopes and wait to see how things turn out because market movements are almost always unpredictable. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green...
All you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that Will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fee attached...
I appreciate your approach to teaching.. To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough, we just need to hold onto our hopes and wait to see how things turn out because market movements are almost always unpredictable. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green...
all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that Will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fee attached...
I appreciate your approach to teaching.. To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough, we just need to hold onto our hopes and wait to see how things turn out because market movements are almost always unpredictable. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green...
all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that Will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fee attached...
I appreciate your approach to teaching.. To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough, we just need to hold onto our hopes and wait to see how things turn out because market movements are almost always unpredictable. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green...
all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that Will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fee attached...
I appreciate your approach to teaching.. To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough, we just need to hold onto our hopes and wait to see how things turn out because market movements are almost always unpredictable. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green...
all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that Will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fee attached...
Funny thing is, ever since the hike, rent is most stable, since the market set the price, wage stay higher than ever before. Government isn't printing like it did QE, so can't really say opposite that govt. Is not reason for inflation. Everything became cheaper in terms of higher dollar relative to peso.
Thats simply not true tho. Im argentinian and my wage IS in dollars, so I would know, my rent has gone up by $130 only in the last 6 months (it goes up by a calculated % every trimester thanks to Milei and the new renting law) and getting ANY places for less than $200 a month, even a room, is nearly impossible when our minimum wage here is around $200. Things keep going up like crazy, I have this little thing i call the empanada index. I used to be able to buy 3 empanadas in my favorite place for $1300 in march, now its almost $7000 for 3 in the same exact place (and in pretty much every other place, you can check videos of digital nomads living here and hear it first hand from them) we are not even cheap in dollars anymore, clothes are insanely overpriced, etc
That isa really dumb take. If your job can't provide a life, what is even the point of a job in the first place? If you can't pay people enough to live don't hire them in the first place. Minimum wage is made to protect the low skilled workers. Just because you are low skill doesn't mean your life and time is worthless. If your business can't operate if you pay your employ a bare minimum to live, you shouldn't have a business any way. And if your employ decides to dich work often, it has noting to do with his skill or how much money he generates per hour he is working. Showing up for work is minimum requirement for any skill level in order to generate revenue. Ofc the hypotetical person you speak of is not going to get hired. It prevents people in desperate situations from getting a foot in the door of slavery.
What I'm seeing over and over, is if it's Illegal for the govt to spy on us, but ok for companies to spy on us FOR THE GOVT. Pretending the govt is not breaking the constitution spying on with non govt people who will be penalized or possibly jailed is tyranny!
I'm from Europe and I think US is completely nuts. Anything with the word 'social' in it is 'a commie bro..' like sure rather you all get f++ked up the a+s by the corporate, while signing the praise to it. Seems like people back in USSR at least knew they'd been f+cked with. You all just eating it up. The irony is hilarious.
No that is not the issue, the issue is that when a high minimum is set, its the franchise owners that get their margins cut while the corporate side only get more profits, you make it so the kid cant get the job because hiring is not worth the profits earned. Laws need to target the cut the corporate side takes to finance liveable wages, and yes if you work full time you should be able to live off it, not in luxury but live.
Robert has said the point once or twice, and its definitely something I havent heard anywhere else. The money supply is increasing, the value of the money is dropping because of the printing press. The government controls the printing press... The Fed can invent new debt, but wouldn't it be nice if you were the person who had the printing press in YOUR basement so that YOU could expand the money supply? the problem with the federal government is that it is controlled by special interests, so that the USA right now explicitly backs and supports Israel and prints money to support Israel while Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. AIPAC owns the politicians, the politicians lay claim to the printing press, and then the printing press prints money to support Israel while they commit genocide in Gaza. The printing press exists, and its being used by the politicians for A-moral purposes.
Thanks for the interesting content! 😍 Need some advice: 🙏 I found these words 😅. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). I don't know what they are. What should I do with them? 🤷♀️
Thanks for the breakdown! 🤔 Need some advice: 🙏 I only have these words 🤔. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). What should I do with this? 🤷♂️
So, the problem wasn't companies jacking up prices? The problem wasn't companies just deciding they weren't making enough profit? Sounds to me like both of those were exactly the problem. The morons like you that lick the boots of billionaires are the ones that make life suck for literally everyone else.
