Thank you Dr. Franc for explaining the Delphi method so beautifully. I am currently conducting a Delphi survey, and I have a slight confusion. Some participants have not answered all the qualitative questions in the first round (left the questions blank). In this case, can I include them in the consecutive rounds of the survey? Or is there any restrictions against including them? Thank you again and I hope you will answer my question
As far as I know, there is no hard-and-fast rule about this. We usually allow our experts to complete the rounds of the survey that they are able, and include the results in the final analysis. Those missing one round of the survey can still the next one and are not automatically excluded.
The “Delphi Method” is a harmless sounding name for a devious means of manufacturing consent among groups of people. The Delphi Method is actually a subtle form of mind control which employs positive and negative reinforcement to psychologically manipulate people into joining the “group-think” mentality. That’s where the SME’s come in. SME’s are there to steer the group in the direction of the projects predetermined outcome. In order to accomplish this SME’s employ a variety of psychological manipulation techniques, all of which are used by law-enforcement, military and intelligence services during interrogations to gain compliance of and exhort force of will over a subject in order to achieve a predetermined outcome. SME’s reward blind conformity with positive feedback, complements and feel-good affirmations (ego-stroking) On the other hand, SME’s punish resistance and wrong-think with an inversely withering series of personal psychological attacks. One such technique is to single out anyone who opposes a critical aspect of the project by slanderously mischaracterizing their objections out-loud to publicly embarrass, humiliate and turn the others against them based on the SME’s deceptive mischaracterization. The overwhelming majority of people don’t want to be an outcast, let alone “The Outcast” so they will quickly abandon their principles or differing points of view in favor of the emotional security that accompanies acceptance within a group. In the event that the whole group voices disagreement with an important aspect of the project, the SME’s will sight obscure often unverifiable statistics, anecdotal evidence and other fabricated reasons as to why certain ideas or concepts which have been successfully implemented in identical projects “would not work for this project” and in the event that the SME’s are unable to sway the groups opinion, then the issue will be tabled for a later discussion and they will move onto the next item. When a planning meeting falls completely apart, the SME’s will conclude the meeting and reschedule it for a future date. Mysteriously though, the individuals who lead the opposition will be disinvited, barred or otherwise prevented from attending the rescheduled meeting, the opposition members will be subdivided into pre-designated (support-rich) tables in order to dilute the opposition and the above mentioned Delphi method will be applied to downplay, squash, marginalize, and ignore any further dissent. The Delphi Method provides the illusion of choice, when in fact you didn’t actually choose anything… You took what they gave you, you went where they lead you and ended-up at the predetermined outcome for that project. If you walked away from the planning meeting(s) thinking that you made a difference, that your input was appreciated or in any way helped to shape the project, then the SME’s did their job… Congratulations you’ve been Delphi’d lol.
Focus group / experto pannel got it. Dominant personalities...group preassure...Alexis de Toqueville : Dictatorship of the majority. I see it more like a polítical way to reach consensus. Because it is attached to beliefs and little facts. Research is the evidence needed.
Hi, Dr Franc. Thank you for the clear and systematic explanation about Delphi technique. May I know whether Delphi technique is considered as a quantitative method or qualitative method?
This is an excellent question. Generally, Delphi, and other surveys based on numeric data are quantitative studies, in that the analysis is numeric. That said, the content they address often bridges on the border of Qualitative studies.
Mr. Professor Franc @Stat59 , if you have reference materials about Delphi Technique for indication, it could be very useful for deeper studies and case studies. Thank you for the classroom.
Thanks for your comment. My favorite reference is this book by Kinney: www.wiley.com/en-ca/The+Delphi+Technique+in+Nursing+and+Health+Research-p-9781405187541
Can you use the Delphi method for a complex research problem to get more insight into important factors that influence this problem. I want to use experts opinions make a concensus and do more trustworthy research on their opinions. Is it helpfull to use this method in my case?
This is often a great use of Delphi studies, to get an expert opinion on the important factors and then use that knowledge to create a more robust study.
@@Stat59 Very good perspective! Delphi result does not need to be the endpoint (and anything must be the "final answer"). It can serve as a conductor, as collection of hypothesis for start-up other above layers of presented pyramid methods or methodologies.
Hypothetically, if you need to choose an expert for your brain surgery, what will you consider? Consider the same for Delphi questionnaires. But remember. The group should be diversified. Try to choose Cartesian technicians, mixed with more qualitative technicians, and mixed with specialists that manage others, so they are specialists and have generalist profile. It would be great!!! Best, Maurício.
Dr Franc, thanks for the deep and clear insight into the methodology! Very useful for anyone that wants to start working in this direction. As you mentioned: many topics don't have enough objective empirical data so Delphi is really useful in these cases and goes far beyond a simple survey. I would've given my left foot to have access to this video a couple of years ago! Looking forward to similar insights on many more stats topics. Barry Lynam, MD, MSc, EMDM
We have been studying how to develop clinical guidelines for an infrequent injury in resource constrained environments. Civilian and Military guidelines have limited application in a resource constrained environment, or have been found to have not been consistently accepted across specialities based on expert opinions. Recently there have been clinical guidelines released by leading humanitarian response agencies without a description of how they arrived at their conclusions. Dr. Franc's discussion beginning with the history of the Delphi Technique and where the result sits in the pantheon of science provides the path for clinicians to follow when faced with a problem they wish to solve. As we move towards evidence based practice, disaster medicine lacks rigorous scientific research due to the subject matter because a prospective random controlled double blind trial is difficult to design. Thus, if disaster medicine is to achieve the validity and acceptance amongst other specialties, we have to adhere to the highest level of EBM. The Delphi Technique presented by Dr. Franc demystifies and outlines a step-by-step process that is easy for the designers to follow and the participants to accept to commit to achieve acceptable results. As the WHO EMT Initiative gains acceptance by the Ministers of Health and team leaders, clinical guidelines developed through the Delphi Technique should become the minimum standard in lieu of higher levels of evidence based medicine. This lecture should become the first step in this process. Well done Dr. Franc, thank you. Eric S. Weinstein MD MScDM
