It's sick when u think about Villain's terrible equity as hand vs hand the AT vs K5 and let alone the hand vs range, which in reality is 3-4% or whatever he has OTF vs ur whole raising range :D .
Regarding the first hand, I think once the river brings in the front-door villains move from over-defending to over-folding. Hands like KQ QJ AK are all pretty much snap-folding when the spade comes in, and most aren't nearly good enough to turn these hands into bluffs. If anything I'd go for a blockish sizing, 1/4 1/5 to get hands like AK to sometimes come along. You're also just targetting such a narrow range that I'd probably prefer to just check
AK would be a pure bet for me and I would bet my entire range. The downside to playing a checking range is that it's very difficult to balance and basically always ends up being quite face up.
not much you an really do in the first one, as played I'm check folding river. I'd be curious what the sovle does on the turn given multiple bet sizes, I do intuitively like a bigger sizing on the turn.
Hand 1. I agree that this is over defended. But I’m 100% check folding river. You beat close to nothing. Everything you beat checks. Might Get value from AK or KQ.. but Even that’s hard on this runout
Great video. This high level thinking will pay dividends against great players, but having played many Bovada tournaments, I think I am insta folding. They are willing to play for stacks at any point with no consideration of ICM with terrible hands like J10s or A7o so much so that simply waiting for a big hand like QQ+ becomes extremely enticing knowing you will get paid
The fun part as you mentioned: They gain EV vs us in all those times when we do NOT have AA or KK, even though they're not thinking about it.. How often do we have AA and KK to "punish" this out of line play by them? :p (On a final table. WHEN we RFI and they 3b..) ICM (preflop sim) ASSUMES the 3betting (2nd chip lead) has the idea of how much they should be over folding after getting jammed on. They seem to be NOT even care about CeV (given their A6o call off to a jam earlier). I don't know, if we can feed in "maniac" ranges" and arrive at any good decision based on all the available sims at the moment. It is often far fetched to expect CeV correct play anyway. ICM compliant plays (for which the ICM solutions exist) are utopian to begin with, imho.
