Greedy Williams is one of those 'what could have been' stories. He never recovered from the nerve damage and although he had good cover skills and looked like he could have become a damn good starter, his ability to play physically against WRs fell completely in the dumpster. He would complain of numbness in it even after he returned, and I think he was honestly a one-armed man out there a lot of times. He was a very cool dude though. Friendly, happy, always laughing and joking with the fans, unbelievably optimistic. You wanted to see him succeed. Saban was right when he said Wilson needed another year in college. He had elite physical tools but absolutely zero instincts. I'll always remember him for taking Mahomes down by the neck into the turf, turning the rest of the Browns-Chiefs playoff game into prison rules football that ended with Hollywood Higgins getting speared in the head by a diving Sorenson. It was tough to watch that game.
It is super unfortunate for Greedy. I was super excited when he got picked up by Philly last year because I thought he'd maybe be able to slowly work in w/their older CBs and find a way to revive his career. Unfortunately, the injuries just caught up with him, but he is an awesome dude.
I meant it relative to how he was viewed by consensus. I'd agree that a 6th rounder starting 8 games and playing in 16 in their rookie season is above expectations, but relative to his 2nd round grade, his production would be below expectations. I should've been more clear!
disagree by a lot on Mack Wilson a player who turns into a solid LB who can start for multiple teams being a 2nd round player at 60 is closer to value than 155th. At best that was a push
I would respectfully disagree on the basis that Wilson has not started for multiple teams. The only season he has played over 80% of his team's snaps was in his rookie year. From 2020 -2023, his highest % of defensive team snaps played was 34.5% and his average % of snaps over that span was 24.9%. In those 4 years, PFR has him as only starting 18 of 61 games he played. The point I'm making with all of that is that he was only a starter in his rookie year - hes been a rotational player the rest of his career and just recently got the chance to start again. Maybe there is an argument that a good rotational player is worth a second round pick, so I could see that, but I'd say you ideally want your second rounders to start. He is going to be starting this year, so he definitely has a chance to reverse the verdict on that one by developing into a consistent starter, but I scored the video based on their career production up to this point - as indicated by the stats above, his career playing time indicates that he's a rotational player and his play had been average to poor until 2023. I'm looking forward to his 2024 though and hoping he can keep up his 2023 play to change the narrative. Thanks for watching!
@@TheJumboPackage I get what you mean but he feels more like a neutral than a wrong you need a neutral category . It felt like every single toss up went to the NFL.
@@nickbacherbaronsoc7193 that’s fair. I’ve done the grading for the next video and many of the toss ups will go to consensus, so it’ll even out! I tried to avoid ties as much as possible, so close calls unfortunately had to be decided in one direction
Man... my favorite "value" players in this draft were Rock Ya-Sin, Parris Campbell, Bryce Love, Blake Cashman, and Oruwariye... I was high on Khalen Saunders too. Good thing I'm not a pro scout!
Haha, we all have hits and misses! Blake Cashman was electric this past season - his issue has always been health but when he’s healthy he’s been a very good player!
Liked the video for that one part where you did an actual but brief investigation into ‘Chris’ who just dispenses information which may derail prospect’s careers
Thank you! To be fair to him, he had reported this after the draft already happened and he was likely just reporting something he learned from a team source. The main issue I had is that about 30 other media outlets just quoted to him and stated it as fact without pointing out that he was the only one who said something along those lines and that it couldn’t be corroborated.
Thank you! Been trying to get better and better with every video. Really appreciate you pointing that out because I’ve been putting a lot of work into raising the production quality! Also will definitely keep this series going - next up is the biggest reaches of the 2019 draft. Also will be documenting the biggest reaches and fallers/steals of every upcoming draft like I’ve done for the past 2 years!
Haha I’m sure it’s no bueno. Admittedly, I’ve revised my scouting process a bit so I’m more confident in my evals from this most recent season. But either way, gotta start somewhere, even if you’re wrong!
@@jacksonanderson9457 Definitely missed on him! I wanted to make a video along the lines of "the players who proved me wrong in 2023," but I didn't get around to it for lack of time. He definitely would've been the #1 player. One of my favorite players to watch now tbh!
Thank you! I knew it'd make the video a bit longer because I'd have to spend more time on each player explaining both sides, but I wanted to do it so it was a more accurate account of each sides' thoughts on a given player. Glad you appreciated it!
He was actually 388 on the consensus big board and taken 213 in the draft, meaning that, in the eyes of consensus, he was actually a reach of 175 spots at the time of the draft. Although he wound up being a steal, this video is looking at guys who were seen as steals at the time the draft happened and seeing who was right on their value.
Crosby was 112 on the consensus board and picked at 106, therefore not considered a draft “steal” at the time of the draft. He’s one now, but the purpose of the video is to see consensus rankings vs NFL. Both consensus and the NFL had Crosby in the same general range, so they’re both just wrong.
DK, saved the Hawks 2019 draft class from being a complete disaster . He's been everything we hoped he'd be when we drafted him, he opens the field for Lockett, JSN & Bono. Go Hawks
Crosby was 112 on the consensus board and picked at 106, therefore not considered a draft “steal” at the time of the draft. He’s one now, but the purpose of the video is to see consensus rankings vs NFL. Both consensus and the NFL had Crosby in the same general range, so they’re both just wrong.
Great idea for a video and even better execution. You strike a perfect balance of giving dense statistics but presenting them in a way that's easily digestible. Can't wait for the reaches vid; keep up the excellent work!
Would love to hear what you guys think! Think I was wrong in ruling who won? Is there someone else who should be on this list that I missed? Who should be included in the 2019 Draft reaches video? Let me know! Also it took me 3 full hours to make that 5 second graphic of the scoreboard, so I'd appreciate if you could validate me by telling me you like the scoreboard.... pls..... anyways, thanks for watching!
Too much time spent on data you had to organize vs the results. Also how many of the interm coaches kept their job? How did they do the following season? How many years did they coach for?
Interesting questions! Although I'm interested in the performance of interim coaches after the first year, it wouldn't have answered the question in this video - the impact of in-season firings on team performance - so I did not gather that information. If we look to the subsequent seasons for interims, we can't draw clear conclusions from that information because there are so many different variables that affect the teams in between seasons. There is a whole free agency period and draft that a team has to add new talent, assistant coaches leave, players retire and get injured, etc. For example, if a head coach has Brodie Croyle at QB (no offense Brodie) and gets fired in season, the interim coach still has the same QB or at least the same personnel decisions as the prior head coach to start that QB or play another one on the roster. But if we look to the next season, the interim coach may have the chance to bring in a better QB through the draft or free agency, which inherently muddies up the ability to compare the performance of the fired coach to the interim coach. When we apply that same logic to every other position, to assistant coaches, and to potential injuries, it would just be far too difficult to come to a conclusion about whether the in-season coaching change had any significance on that interim coach or the team in the long-term, although it is an interesting question. The questions you're looking for are ones that are best suited for a different video about the best / worst performing interim coaches, which is a video I may make in the future. In terms of your first comment, I'd agree that there wasn't much time spent on the results, but I'd argue that the results were straightforward without much explanation needed. It was necessary to present the specific data that I gathered so people knew how I arrived to the conclusion: relative to retaining an underperforming head coach, firing that head coach gives you a slightly better chance of winning the rest of the games that season and slightly increases team performance in terms of PA, PAPG, Yards, Yards Allowed Per Game, and EPA. However, it doesn't turn a bad team into a good one. The data doesn't really support anything more than that, so I can't really think of a way to expand on it much further. However, I could just be lacking in creativity, so if you have any ideas of how I could've expanded on it or made it more interesting, please let me know and I'll factor it into any future videos as I'm always looking to improve. Hopefully this comment doesn't come off as defensive, as I'm open to any constructive criticism, but I felt it'd be helpful to explain my thought process. Thanks for commenting!
I’m not a Carr guy, but the way McDaniels was allowed to scapegoat Carr for his own failures as a head coach that first season, and then bringing in a washed up Jimmy G, set the Raiders offense back 3-4 seasons. It’s a horrible crime of team mismanagement that I’ll never forgive as a Raiders fan. We could have a playoff caliber offense right now along with the Super Bowl caliber defense we currently have. It makes me sick and I hope that Josh McDaniels never has another head coach opportunity unless it’s for the Chiefs lol
Thanks for the feedback! I had thought my previous videos were too loud so its possible that I overcorrected and brought the volume down too low. I had listened on my phone and my laptop and thought the volume was good, but its also hard to tell since I've re-watched the video about 10 different times since I've finished it. Do you mind letting me know what you were using to watch the video? Thanks!
@@TheJumboPackage I was using my phone and earbuds. The thing that really made it noticeable was that I got a Kamala Harris ad that I was listening to at about 3/4 volume, and when it ended and the video started, I COULD NOT hear it.
Thanks for making such an interesting and nuanced video! The topic of NFL firings is interesting because as a Premier League fan there is a much stronger tradition of mid-season firings than in American football. The danger of relegation means teams need to scrape up a minimum of 17th place every year, which results in inevitable sackings to try and pump up the team and change their fortunes. It's also resulted in a class of coaches who are basically around just to be hired mid season for the "new manager bounce", though in recent years the trend of coaches at the club being promoted to interim like in the NFL is more common. For a league like the NFL where the only goal is to make the playoffs it does change the calculus of when to fire a coach, since finishing bottom of the league is basically a reward instead of a punishment. Thanks again for the thought provoking content and I look forward to more.
Thats fascinating! I actually don't follow Premier League very closely so I didn't know that, but that is super cool - it adds whole new stakes to head coaches, interim coaches, and gives owners less leeway to be patient. NFL is definitely very different in that sense like you said, but that gives me a really interesting idea for a video re: comparing the difference between the success of teams in the NFL and in the Premier League after in-season coaching changes. I'd imagine that, if there are substantially more in-season coaching changes, the NFL sample size will likely be far too small in comparison to really come to any concrete conclusion, but it could still be really interesting. I'm really glad you enjoyed the video. Thanks for watching!!
Interesting stuff, I'd watch more niche videos like this. As you mentioned, I think the key thing is that even if an interim HC had a successful plan for improving a team's play, there is only so much that can be done in-season. But I do think the context of a firing matters. Would it surprise anyone if a GM or owner intended to fire a coach, that they would do so right before facing a weak opponent to improve the odds of a win and seemingly justify their decision to the media/fans? I don't think it was a coincidence that McDaniels was fired and Pierce was named interim HC just before the Raiders faced a weak opponent in the Giants - a team that their interim coach happened to have played for the majority of his career. I also remember this because there were rumors floating that the Raiders were going to start a full rebuild and would put Davante Adams on the trade block but decided not to at the behest of Antonio Pierce. As a Jets fan, I can only wonder "what if" lol. Lastly, yay pickles.
That's a great point that I didn't even think of! I wonder how often owners even consider who their next opponent is. It definitely makes sense to want to set your interim up for success / gain public support for the firing by giving the team a weaker opponent in their first game after the firing, but I wonder how many times that has actually factored into the decision, especially given the W-L records of the teams in the "witch is dead" games. I'm also a Jets fan as well, so I'm in the same boat with you - hoping Davante finds his way to us this season (although its not looking likely at this point). Thanks for watching!
