I hope folks will forgive the slow start. I was struggling to talk about those conflicts in an even-handed way, but I think I filtered the emotional experience too much and it ended up sort of vague and weird. I think it gets stronger as I get into the talk itself, and I hope you'll stick it out until then!
You come across as though you are unable to accept criticism about Elm. That it's your thing and if others don't like it then they should leave it. Is this a personal art project or are you trying to make a great tool for others to use? You claim the latter, but behave as though it's the former in many of your responses to community involvement and critique. You can't ask people to use your thing in hopes of making change but then act like they are ungrateful if they question it in any way. I think a lot of the vitriol you sense in the critiques comes from a place of frustration with the closed nature of Elm development, being unwilling to comment publicly with coherent responses to their concerns. Apple has a similar M.O., and they are known for never acknowledging criticism and problems with their products, and a borderline hostile attitude towards their own customers. Is that how you want Elm to be? Elm has great potential, but a shadow of uncertainty lies over it. Maybe it's just too early yet.
Loved your reasoning. At start wasn't really sure where this talk will end up, but was clear and logical. You should but the aims what it is and what it's not on Elm-lang.org page as well =)
What an AMAZING presentation !!!! BRAVO. I will repeat another comment made below and Say this IS a "...Required watching for people who create stuff that becomes successful."
Go, Evan! Love the sensible opinions on solving difficult problems and release cycles. I came to find the gen on elm update frequency - I found so much more.
regarding the consulting firm saving $$$$ with elm, the cynical part of me wonders if more bugs = more hours which makes more $ (to a limit of course). so no incentive at all to track or report that. what you want is a product company that has for example a two sided marketplace and different apps to serve each side. elm will pay off more the longer the company has to maintain the codebase. harder to find, of course :)
I think you should focus on libraries like react-native and weex. They are two gross niches indeed: iOS and Android is much more productive for you than scientific computations and data visualization.