I just did it with A-League is Aussie and at HT it was Central Coast v Melbourne City - it were 0-0 at HT but XG states Home Team to win, but to be close - they both score in HT more so than First half so though lets do 2 things first O2.5 goals market at 3.0 and put £10 on then first goal went it a mintue later but left it on but took my liability out of this. Then I put on Melbourne City to win 10 mintues later when it were 19.5 only £6 on, then 5 minutes after they scored and the odds crashed to 5.5 got my money out and laibilty out of it complety - workse scenrios in all options i were breaking even best one was Melbourne to acutaklly win - it ended up as 2.1 home team as stated at HT were the Xg stating - but Melbourne looked good during 2nd half so that is why I made this trade. Thanks for this great info
Hi Ben, shouldn't the projection in your spreadsheet disregard the mins already played when calculating what the full time score will be? What I mean by that is despite there being an XG of 2.0 at HT, if the match is still 0-0 then we can assume that the XG is the same in the 2nd half and the chances are converted giving us 2 goals, whereas I think your calculation would say 4 😁
Hi mate, a few people have made that suggestion but we can't reasonably expect the second half to play out just the same as the first half. Very often teams lose momentum, matches tighten up and you actually rarely see the exact same xG in first half vs second half. This approach is based on what is expected "so far". That being said, we are considering a way to use the time left to help give a bit more depth to the calculations and projections. Work in progress!
@SportsTradingLife yeah exactly, I would always keep an eye on the stats to see if the match continues in the same way, funny how often it calms down after entering the market 😂 The point I was making was about the spreadsheet - you had a field for predicting the FT score based on current Xg, however, I think that would be better if it also took into consideration the time already gone and goals already scored (if any) Like you said though, work in progress. Personally I just use Xg as a secondary metric to validate games I have picked by looking at overall inplay stats 😁
Much would depend on the time of the goal but if you were to lock in a red screen it would be around 50-80% loss on average. There are still options available though if the goal goes the other way so it is not all over when this happens.
You reasoning like a portfolio 10k. 200 stake? ..and if score the others? Lose 100? Minimum. With 10k portfolio I can trade tennis Like now and I can permit to have a break as well The problem is only are breaks and other break. with no 2 breaks one after one, with100 200 stakes you can scalp every time and easy. And for ne it's the best mode for have profit
You lean how to analyse, interpret and translate the xG numbers so you can predict the matches yourself. You won't need the calculator after a while. More info here: ultimatefootballtrading.com/6tjo
I've started looking at correct score trading, but I've been stung the past 2 trades. Done research on the games, yet the underdog has gone 3 1 up at half time in both games!! Does anyone just take the loss or is there another approach to at least retrieve some of the losses?
You will have to do a lot more than 2 trades to see if this is a consistent pattern. Sounds like a freak event. Get more trades under your belt and you will see more "normal" results.
There are many games where the xG for a team is around 1 but they score 3 and xG around 2 or 3 where they score 0. In my eyes this just looks like gambling if you aren’t watching the game. If I had to place money blind solely based off xG I would much rather lay the draw instead. This are my 2 cents on this obviously, anyone is free to do any strategy
Fair enough mate. It is important to understand that xG is for "Expected" goals and not "guaranteed goals" Matches where a team had 3xG but scored 0, just means they under-performed on the day. These instances are the outliers and not the norm.
