朋友们大家好，今天是2024年7月6日星期六，欢迎大家收看本期内部视角看中国。三中全会即将开幕，很多朋友对此期望很大呀，我一直告诉他们，现在的政治形势是一个听话的中央委员会和一个听话的中央政治局，全会的意义已经不大，这样的中央委员会只会对元首的一切正确或不正确的决策高唱赞歌，山呼万岁。很多朋友都说，现在与十几年前的胡温时代相比退步了不少，也有朋友说，现在与胡温时代相比进步了许多，到底是进步了还是退步了呢？我从2010年5月5日，至2023年1月4日一直在监狱里头，出狱后1年半，观察体会。洞中方七日，世上已千年。这期间至今共计14年半，我们就简称十年吧，关于这十年间的变化，我个人的体会是剧烈的，今天就与朋友们分享一二。赞成反对都无所谓，欢迎大家评论区留言。我从来也没想过成为什么大V，大家一起聊聊就好。文明用语，畅所欲言，避免被删帖。
我们总结一下，就我自身的强烈感受而言，总的来看，过去十年间中共在多个领域的政策执行和实际效果相比十年前出现了显著的退步。政治集权和压制异见导致社会活力下降，经济政策的不确定性增加了市场风险，使得市场信心缺失，经济热情低迷，社会心理变化导致的全面经济和社会危机正在扑面而来，社会治理中的形式主义和官僚主义加剧了基层问题，国际关系的紧张和孤立感增强了外部挑战。这些退步在不同程度上影响了中国的整体发展和国际地位。在这样一个政治氛围中，我们还如何对三中全会抱有期待？我认为任何形式的期待都是不切实际的幻想。我不得不说，中国的未来正在面临越来越多的崩溃和解体的风险。大家多保重，我们拭目以待吧。
Friends, hello everyone. Today is Saturday, July 6, 2024. Welcome to this episode of Internal Perspective on China. The Third Plenary Session is about to open, and many friends have high expectations for it. I have always told them that the current political situation consists of an obedient Central Committee and an obedient Central Politburo, rendering the plenary session insignificant. Such a Central Committee will only sing praises for the leader’s every decision, whether right or wrong, and cheer "Long live." Many friends say that compared to the era of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao over a decade ago, there has been a significant regression. Others say that compared to that era, there has been significant progress. So, has there been progress or regression?
From May 5, 2010, to January 4, 2023, I was in prison. After being released, I have spent a year and a half observing and reflecting. "Seven days in the cave are like a thousand years outside." This period, totaling 14 and a half years, can be referred to as a decade for simplicity. Regarding the changes over these ten years, my personal experience has been intense, and today I would like to share a bit with you. Agree or disagree, it doesn’t matter; you are welcome to leave comments. I never aimed to become a big influencer, just sharing thoughts together. Please use civilized language and speak freely to avoid getting posts deleted.
In summary, from my strong personal feelings, overall, the past decade has seen significant regression in multiple areas of the CCP's policy execution and actual effects compared to ten years ago. Political centralization and suppression of dissent have led to a decline in social vitality. The uncertainty of economic policies has increased market risks, causing a lack of market confidence and economic enthusiasm. The comprehensive economic and social crisis brought about by changes in social psychology is approaching. Formalism and bureaucracy in social governance have exacerbated grassroots problems. Tension and isolation in international relations have intensified external challenges. These regressions have affected China's overall development and international standing to varying degrees.
In such a political atmosphere, how can we have any expectations for the Third Plenary Session? I believe any form of expectation is an unrealistic fantasy. I have to say, China's future is facing increasing risks of collapse and disintegration. Everyone, take care; let's wait and see.
5 июл 2024
