I love your video tutorials. Have been watching this channel for over a year now and have yet to begin my trading journey, but when I do, I will be referring to your channel. Keep up the good work and thanks again. Now for that irn bru! 👍🏴
What about over 0.5 goals? It's not trading of course. Or the full time market but from the second half, like it's 0-0 in HT you lay the draw or take the over 0.5 goals?
I have been laying the first half draw for quite some time. I never lay above 2.0 and usually aim for 1.8. Obviously this reduces the number of opportunities but the risk is less. I can see what you are trying to achieve in your examples but laying the FH HT at 3.2 isn't going to work long term, nor is LTD at 6!
I would argue that you probably wouldn't trade lay the draw in the first half with the match odds market anyway, so technically, by playing that market in the second half, you are also risking your whole stake. I'd also say that the law of averages stipulates that the majority of 1st half goals come after 30 mins so that would be your best entry. The couple of examples you showed were goals at 15 mins, whilst not rare, offer very little value as a risk/reward. By dripping in at 30m / 35m and 40m [maybe based on SOT's] you'd 1. Have better prices, 2. Have less risk. 3. Have bigger reward regardless of team who scores. Having said that, if you're going down that road, may as well hit the FHG0.5, right? Might be a nice exercise for the Football S[t]imulator :)
@@SportsTradingLife I took your advice btw with the 'summer leagues' video and highlighted a JLeague game for the first time ever with a 75m entry. Goal at 82 mns. Lovely. Thanks for the heads up. I owe you an Iron Brew!
Better to lay at half time if its 0-0,statistically more chance of a goal and lower liability. Tried laying the 0-0 half time, far to often the favourites come out and score in the first 5 minutes or so of the second half
Hi Ben, another great video for which many thanks! I have a question about how you are calculating the return. For the first live example (the Benevento match) in the match odds market you say that the return is 34% but that is because you are comparing the cash-out to the £10 potential win if either side is ahead at half time. Surely the comparison should be made against the liability (the -£54) which makes it a much smaller return? I appreciate that the whole £54 is not at risk and it is only a proportion, but my point is that the return percentage should be based on liability, not against the possible up-side. Or am I missing something?
So perhaps a better example is the HT one from the same match - the £5.75 profit should be compared against the £21 liability at half time (all of which will be lost if a draw at half time) rather than the £10 upside. (So respectively a 27.4% return against liability - which is still pretty good! - versus a 57.5% return against up-side)
You make a very good point and I wanted to keep it simple by showing the return on the stake. As keep in mind those trading the full match odds would have different exit points and thus might not be risking the same amount.
When I've watched 'Lay the Draw' videos it has often been mentioned that 'most goals happen in the second half' so you lay the draw at half time and probably when their have been no goals so the odds are better but if you are considering the number of goals scored up til then, then shouldn't you instead be considering the percentage of matched that have had goals scored in the second half but none in the first half. For example, if I worked it out correctly, the premier league for 2018/2019 had around 75% of matches that had goals scored in them, but 23% had goals scored only in the second half, with 50% having goals scored in both halves, so by laying the draw at half time you have halved your chances of being correct. Obviously you aren't relying on probability completely, but beginners will rely on past stats more that experienced traders might. I know you haven't covered this specific scenario in this video but I still think it is relevant enough to point out and hopefully get your more experienced view on. I suppose it is about how much you let the previous stats guide you?
My view is that you will find it hard to beat the market probability using freely available information such as that since the markets will already factor this into the price. The idea is to analyse a live match and see if there is something the market isn't taking into account and taking advantage of it.
Isn´t possible to win using LTD on Match Odds market only on the first time( but I mean full time market) on equilibrated games or odds but with very big tendencies of goals? For example: A match on Bundesliga II with Home: 3.20 and Away: 2.80, but the game starts with very shots on goals, corner kicks, etc? Because the DRAW won't fall in this case, in other words, we will be in favor of goal with the market stopped for a long time...What do you think about this? Sorry for my English, I'm still learning...
The biggest problem with this strategy is that no team HAS to win the first half. The full time market has this quite often. If I wanted to play the half time market I would use a o0.5fhg strategy.
Indeed, that is one of the reasons why I don't touch the half time market that much. There can be value to be found but that would probably involve watching the match live.
Nice video, however why not consider to lay the drow on tie games after halftime. Odds are lower and most of the teams score more goals during 2nd half. Although, if the dog scores odds will go up quickly.
I think your suggested profit is much lower in terms of ROI. In the first example on HT and FT markets you said the ROI was like 60% for HT market and about 40% FT market. Thats not correct. Your stake is your liability, so when you laid 10 with liability of 21, and your profit was 6 ish, then the ROI is based on 6/21 x 100= 28% NOT 60%. And for FT it was liability 54 to win 4 ish, then 4/54 x 100 = 7%. Totally different from 60% and 40%. Misleading
Instead of laying the draw back a clear favourite, if they score first you lock in a profit similar to the profit from laying the draw but without the initial liability , if they dont youre still going to lose about the same amount as laying the draw when the underdog scores first, this more or less gives you the same margin of profit without having to have a huge bank to cover a lay bet.
You will definitely make bigger profits after the goal but you have less time to do it and you will probably get similar results just backing the first over 0.5 goals.
I respect you showing losing bets, a lot of people just show the greens, but we can only learn from also knowing the downside You do see some first halves which are really open. It's a fallacy that the only time to back goals is late on in a game. There's lots of value in the first half I think
Don't feel respect for him, because he isn't showing the full picture, this strategy, is a losing strategy, the value of the reds will be bigger than what you can profit in the greens. There is a reason he doesn't do lives and saying at the end of the first live, which game he will work on next live. If he tries that people will realize how this is a lose strategy
Been trying to make this pay for the last couple of years , unfortunately the amount of research involved and getting the right risk / return ratio is certainly not easy around 36% of premier League finishing either 0-0 or 1-1 the occasional 2-2 happens as well at halftime,from a trading perspective laying immediately after a goal is scored works well until the underdog scores would be far better to back the strong favourite at home and cashing out after a goal .At least this is what I have found. As choice of Leagues is vital the English Premier League The German , Spanish and Italian top flights are all over bet and offer very little value ,which is the Paradox the league's that this works well in often have little or no liquidity.
Is the 0-0 that rare Premiership this season 107 / 380 28.16% look back over 10 yrs and its 1,122 / 3800 29.5 % so its not that good a market to trade .....
0-0 half time on all leagues is around the 30% mark, full time 5-8% roughly, stands to reason as more goals are scored 2nd half. The half time markets can be brutal when they go against you but lucrative with a clever strategy, blindly LTD on a HT 0-0 will get you nowhere.
@@moonstomper68 True you do need a strategy , but they go against you as well ... best laid plans etc Trading is not as easy as it would seem at first glance you need to put the leg work into analysis both pre and in match to be successful
For trades in the second half I would rather look at score draws then on 0-0s. Goals - no matter what side - open up games. As Ben says, there is nothing more frustrating than needing a goal, but the players are showing more and more that they are comfortable with the draw.
The beauty of 1st half trades, or even full game trades that pay in the first half (under 2.5) for me is recycling the green for some free 2nd half trading. A pain in the arse when they go wrong, but opens doors I guess.
Err it actually is in some leagues because of the odds on offer. I went back to October 2020 and for the EPL there were 215 games, if you had backed the 0-0 you would lose 90% of the time, *but* if you were betting where the market is priced 10-12.5 you would have made 44 points and if the market was priced 15.01-17.5 you would have made 19 points. Remember when you win its like 10-14R so you can still be profitable even with a long losing run.
