Wow! I was surprised to hear my name mentioned directly Chuck. Thank you for the video, insight and lesson. Glad to hear my suspicions were accurate. Fastgraphs helps to recognize stock overvaluation with simple illustration for non-pundits like myself. Glad to be a subscriber!
Wow, most semi stocks that're covered here indeed seemed priced for perfection mainly due to AI hype. Thanks Chuck for being the voice of reason, as always!
I have 25% in cash and I am happy seeing the market trade down, but I also realize that it could turn around fast and keep going up but I can’t help but get a little bit excited after seeing them drop like this
Dear Chuck, it would be nice to have a follow up video and tell us in which companies you have reinvested the profit from Broadcom or atleast considering investing. Thank you, Mr. Valuation, for the most comprehensive valuation videos on youtube! ❤
It would really depend on the investment objectives, risk tolerances, and needs of the individual. In other words, different strokes for different folks.
I suggest the following strategy to do a video about: dividend growth investing from a perspective of a young man 30 years old who does not need the dividend income for atleast 20 years from now and strives to build an income of aproximately 2000 dollars per month in 20 years or more. Ps. I also have Broadcom with 200%+ profit but as Peter Linch said it is better not to cut the flowers and water the weeds. Fastgraphs is truly awesome and it does my job much easier.
Peter Lynch also said that companies above earnings lines tend to be poor performers and crash or go sideways until EPS grows into share price. I doubt he mean flowers companies which delivered most returns by PE expansion while their EPS is collapsing like Texas Instruments.
I have considered trimming my semiconductor ETF positions, but with earnings for these companies coming up in a month and a half or so I think it might gain some upward momentum into earnings. I'm HODL-ing for now, and will buy more if there's more decreases in the future weeks.
@@FASTgraphs That must be a typo. FV if I look on FG is around 129 USD. And then there is also the chinese war risk in the room. Especially when Trum gets president. What I´m missing here? Thanks a lot for the always highly appreciated great videoS!
Those calling the trading pattern a bloodbath aren't considering the long run. The companies themselves have not changed, it's the Market that changed. Steady as she goes, and we'll regroup in about 10 years!
I would still consider it significantly overvalued and an earnings yield of only 1.33%. I would be interested in the mid-80s but not before. It is going in the right direction but has a long ways to go in my humble opinion.
Mr. Carnevale would you consider a video on these Cdn stocks: CLS-TCelestica Inc Sv CSU-T Constellation Software Inc DSG-T Descartes Sys SHOP-T Shopify Inc Thank you
AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take any other recommendations you make.
For starters, one year is not the long run. Taking my advice you would've messed taking on an enormous amount of risk. Be careful of being a genius in a bull market. Regards, Chuck
Due to the power of compounding a really fast-growing company will make you money if you hold it long enough. I have used Starbucks as an example. If you purchased it in April or May 2006 and held it until today you would average approximately 9% year annualized rate of return. However, from May 2006 until April 2009 you would be down over 65% with an annualized loss of over 30%.
It means there was no time in history where you could overpay for Microsoft and not make money or Visa, Mastercard or any other double digit grower. Company growing 20% annualy will cut PE in half every 4 years or so, so you basically cannot lose money on it as long as it grows and cut PE in half every 4 years for example. If you bought MSFT at the top of the internet buble in 2000, you would still 8x your money. Im actually surprised that nobody use PE on cost while yield on cost is famous. If you bought Visa during IPO year, your PE on cost would be 1 in 2025 as EPS is getting close to 2009 share price.
A hole in this thinking / investment way is that it discards the pe expension due to geniune nature of the bussines development. Semiconductors are now and will be in future more crucial to humanity hence the historical pe ratios wont matter
Cars are more crucial than ever to humanity and yet it does not mean than PE ratios should be affected by it. Stock market is only about one thing and that is profits and growth of these profits not about how crucial something is.
@@rocketman99 Cars are getting better all the time. From safety to advanced technology in them. Than EVs are so much better than ICE cars. Cars produce returns to people. Ask people who use cars for their work. Semicondocturos will be more crucial so there will be a lot of supply and than pressure margins. Look how internet was crucial in past few decades and yet PE ratios stayed the same. SPY average PE is the same last 40 years.
