A recent maiden grad at this year's Belmont distance, does Batten Down fit the bill? #horseracingtips #horseracing #kentuckyderby2024 #preaknessstakes #belmontpark #belmontstakes #saratogasprings #saratoga
Will be interesting to See if He Shows That Same Energy if He Does Not Get The Lead in Belmont....He Coasted up Front Uncontested Against a Bad Field Going 10F....Belmont Scenario is Going to be a Whole Different Ballgame....But Hey This is The Great Bill Mott
Once the thorograph sheets come out that will tell me if he’s fast enough & If he’s coming in on forward moving pattern or paired numbers he’s be DANGEROUS! Just is he fast enough and will the G1 company be over his head
@@Brick-so1ig How the race was run pace wise has nothing to do with the Beyer (92) or Equibase (88) speed figs assigned for his race, which both look oddly low. Their speed figs assigned the race winner are based primarily upon the raw winning time of the race and the track variant assigned to that race plus a few other things like run up distance, and distance off the rail. Race pace has nothing materially to do with either so the fact he ran on an easy uncontested lead has no meaningful impact on very low Equibase and Beyer speed figs assigned to Batten Down for his 1 1/4 CD win. On the surface, the Equibase and Beyer figs for Batten Down's win do look oddly low given that he ran 1 1/4 at CD in a raw time of 2:02 49. To put that time into perspective, over the past 20 years the average Kentucky Derby winning raw time at the same track and distance (CD at 1 1/4) has been exactly 2:02 58 (slower than Batten Down's time). Yet, during that same time the very lowest Beyer speed figures assigned to winners only fell below 100 twice in 20 years - in 2014 when California Chrome ran a time of 2:03 66 he received a BSF of 97 and in 2019 when Country House (ran 2nd to disqualified Maximum Security) ran a time of 2:03 93 and was given a BSF of 99. Equibase during that same 20 year period only assigned a winning E fig to the KD winner under a 100 on one occasion - that would be Rich Strike's 97 when he ran his Derby in 2:02 61. The average Equibase winning E fig over the past 20 years in the Derby has been a 109. 21 points higher than what Batten Down received, an 88. So Equibase is saying with their E Figs that despite the fact Batten Down's winning raw time was actually faster than the average Derby winning time over the past 20 years at the same track and the same distance, his winning Equibase speed fig of 88 is correctly 21 points below the average E Figs they assigned to those 20 Derby winners. Their E Fig for BD is positing the track Batten Down ran his race on had a variant roughly the equivalent of being more than 20 lengths faster at 1 1/4 at CD than the average variant of those 20 Kentucky Derby races (because in Equibase a 1 point difference equates to approximately 1 horse length in routes). It seems extremely hard to believe that Batten Down's CD track played roughly 20+ lengths faster than the average Kentucky Derby day track did over the past 2 decades. Could it be possible? Sure it could, but it appears a bit hard to believe IMO. And no, I'm not saying for sure the figs assigned to Batten Down are off, but on the surface they sure look very oddly low given the final raw time of his race and what we know about the Equibase and Beyer figs assigned to KD winners at the same track and distance over the past 2 decades (an average of a 109 for E Figs with average raw winning race times that were slower than BD's winning time).
@williamworth208 Yeah, given the average EBase fig handed out to recent KD winners (last 20 years) of a 109 and given the fact their average Derby winning raw time is actually slower than Batten Down's (2:02 58 KD winners versus 2:02 49 for BD) that EBase Fig of only an 88 for BD looks hard to believe. Their fig is saying the CD track was basically playing 20+ lengths faster from a variant standpoint for BD's race versus how the CD track played on average for those past 20 Derby's (and we know they soup that track up often on Big Race days like KD day). The 88 Ebase Fig and the Beyer Fig of only a 92 both look off. Their Ebase fig of 88 suggests that in order for him to have gotten a fig of a 109 (the average fig they assigned to KD winners over the past 2 decades) he would have had to run his race in basically 2:00 flat time, which would have given him the 2nd fastest KD raw time in the past 40 years with only Monarchos' 2001 time of 1:59 97 being marginally faster by a single tic. I'm calling BS on that 88 fig. LOL🙂
@@rcg9573 Final Times of Races Do Not Dictate The Speed Figures...Other Circumstances are Involved...Final Time Handicapping Will Leave You With Lint in Your Pocket in The Longrun
Why is Sierra Leone being referred to as if he's the bench mark of this class? He cannot run straight in stretch and I doubt the stewards are gna let him get away with him running into horses like he did in derby and running two horses off the road in Bluegrass. He is just gna have to beat me bc no way I'm taking some short price on him.
