This is awesome. Randy and Jerry are great to take the time to do this outside the trailers! Bailey was my favorite jockey of all time! He would demolish these jocks today.
@@jamesmoses6092 Cigar was a great horse ! ... mean though .... they had him on display at Kentucky Horse Park for a few years and he was one you couldn't pet or give a carrot to - he bit !
Thank you 2 savvy, classy experts for the Torpedo Anna pick...paid $11 gives me some betting money for the Derby tomorrow 👍🏾...I wanna do a trifecta...any thoughts? Of course I'll tip you through PayPal haha 😄
John Velazquez is scheduled to ride 8 races before the feature event, 10 furlongs on the dirt. Ben Curtis is fixed to ride just the Kentucky Derby, on Honor Marie. A good finisher.
One important factor they did not talk about is about Sierra Leone. He has a inside post and will save some ground, BUT with not expecting a suicidal pace, the 2nd and 3rd rows of horses will be bunched up and Sierra Leone will most likely need to find room to get to the outside. That most likely mess up his chances.
Yes Fierceness, Yes, Forever Young, Yes, Sierra Leone. All great horses, any could win, depends on jockey and post position. In the end, the horse with the most heart will cross first. I am cheering for Llarry D's horse, West.
Forever Young is my horse to watch and think Im watching his grandfather Sunday Silence. Oh-Im forgetting pedigree through the Dam-A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew.
I’ve been commenting on some of the posts and have done a little research since then and after fully handicapping this card, outside of the couple really nice races from Fierceness , this is one of the poorest fields talent wise I’ve seen in a while. I advise looking for the closers for the long stretch run of the Derby. The majority of these horse are running 1:50 and change in the mile and 1/8th. That is very average. My safe bet is probably going to be a 4 horse exacta box and call it a day. Potentially a couple small win tickets on some shots .
Great Show. You got some so great info from two very smart knowledgeable data collectors. I got some great info,. You pulled it out from them by just by letting them answer!!! Bravo.
The best way to hit a longshot is to find a horse that previously ran well at Churchill Downs. Rich Strike's lone win before the Derby came at Churchill, and he won it by 19 lengths.
No one gives Dornach a chance to go wire to wire but I don’t think we have seen his best race yet. This is the 3rd start off the layoff for Dornach and if he is able to correct the lead change issue he could have another gear just when it will be needed most. I’m fading both favorites and hoping for bad racing luck for both. A slow start could sink Fierceness and Sierra Leone could easily find road trouble coming from the back. Honor Marie and Catching freedom will be in my wagers with Dornach.
with Dornoch bad trip last race, I think he can go wire to wire. if Sierra Leone races his race, I think it will open up the rail for Dornoch coming out the gate. and Dornoch beat Sierra Leone third race back with a little extra boost to win by a nose. and your right he's not getting the press like everyone else is.
rever young and Catch freedom are also 3rd off, one of my fav angles. Dornach will wire the field if he was the lone speed . I see 5 horses or more pushing him hard early. I love FY and DP ..
At least one of Justify's progeny could be the X factor that many will overlook. I like the pattern that comes from the Dam of Affirmed, who has a double x. Mr. Bailey knows all too well how D W L can get a three yr. old colt ready for the first Saturday in May.
Guys I hear this fierceness break issue and don’t buy it because he is always outside in every race he has run pressing or leading it. He had Irad and Johnny V, that’s what the best do. Maybe he wants some competition??
Dude , I saw that Florida Derby race and even though people complain about the competition, it is a grade 1 and the horse ran 1:48 and change without breaking a sweat drawing clear. Can definitely do the 1 3/16 . He runs like that no one will catch him. Speed rating was 107! I know, too good to be true
I love your analysis 😂 I got the coffee pot noisy and finishing brewing and I swear the king just whispered “as many as 9 lengths.” I might still be asleep in my defense. I have a similar setup but I think Sierra Leone gets there at the end. He’ll have won by a half length over fierceness, 5 back Honor Marie, Just Ayyyy Touch(the Fonzie horse) and yep Catching Freedom. I’ll have all 3 at that spot. 17/2, 4/7/8. Is it possible to box 2/17 for 1st & 2nd and box 4/7/8 3rd and 4th?
Funny how no one is commenting as they're either drunk or pissed. Fierceness did everything that JB said he needed to win and ended up going from 1st to 15th. I bet 2-3-4-13 using my system of my name,Dan,and never leaving out the 2 and 4 along with my lucky 13. Now what I saw was sierra Leone n forever young should benefit in either Preakness and or Belmont as both best the hell out of each other on last turn while Catching Freedom on rail got smacked around also n is worth playing.
Do you think,if kick back is a problem for Forever Young,would he bolt to get to the front or near the front. With Track Fanthom on his right T. O. Password on his left,cold we see a heightened times for the 1/4 and 1/2
I thought I added a comment It seems to me that several weeks ago there was a little bit of a buzz about Wayne Lucas's horse in the Derby I'm talking about the other justify horse just steel I watched that Arkansas Derby over and over again I saw horse that went wide on both turns I saw a horse that was challenged during the course of the early part of the race several times was passed I saw a horse patiently written I see a horse that basically if muth was not in the race just steal wins it by a large margin I think he's improving I heard talk about him being a long shot two and a half weeks ago haven't heard a damn thing since everyone jumps on this horse that was raced maybe two times three times the other justified horse they jump on these other horses also if you go back 75 years 80 years one the Kentucky Derby at that point in time on the years ago was only a $10,000 race and a horses that entered it or admiral all those horses citation they all ran 20 times before the derby 30 times before the derby why is that well the way I see it everyone wants to mollycoddle these horses now because people are spending a couple million dollars to buy this horse a horse so you don't want him to break down you race him in a large quality race with a large purse so you win the price back that you paid for them real fast then what happens they very seldom go on to race the 4-year-old year maybe they do most of the time there are immediately retired to the breeding shed why why not race any longer because the value will go down if they didn't shoot or die on the track they can't make the millions of dollars in breeding fees so they only race these horses very lightly Wayne Lucas basically a throwback he races his horses into contention and so contrary to all the very very astute handicappers and the jockeys like Jerry Bailey with all that said I'm absolutely surprised Jerry Bailey being an older man should know how David Wayne Lucas trains his horses like the old school days and I'm very surprised that only a few days before the Kentucky Derby I keep listening to all these new pundits come forth and now one of them has said a word about just Steel they look at the angles of the jockeys like the Irad Ortiz Jr who sits on a 30 to one shot in the derby who I really don't like just because he's joking now because I don't like the horse I don't see the horses being a viable real contender not that a good jock he can't but I seem to recall a young man a 16-year-old Steven Cauthen winning the Kentucky Derby so I see no reason why Keith aschmussen from a horse racing family who's also going to be racing against all his father's horse who is training a horse in the Derby also his father's a top notch trainer so why can't he be a top notch jockey but more than the top notch jockey that he's become he has in my belief a horse that has every possibility of winning the Kentucky Derby sitting 4th or 5th like he's been doing in all his races you see what I like about that horse just deal is that he seems to engage right from the beginning of the race He's engaged in all of his races where is Sierra Leone All you got to do is a local long in the background and start picking horses off in the back stretch and making a run around the turn so he's loafing the majority of the race I like a horse that's engaged in the race from the moment the flag falls to that's all Even if he isn't first out of the gate He's no worse than 4th or 5th and I think this Keith ashmussen is a hell of a decent young jockey who by the way has a master's degree from college I think that says a lot about his intelligence and he's been schooled by the top people in the horse racing industry from his father to Wayne Lucas to all the other people around that he hangs around learning from so I think just steal has a decent shot and not just being in the money but literally winning the race The horse is bred out of loyalty justified winner of the triple crown just like the other justify horse The only difference is he's got more training and racing under his belt so he's learned a lot more and is faced more adversity to overcome then these lightly raced horses enough said from my little statement Hope you like my addition to the intelligent race players and race people like Jerry Bailey
Dornoch, with his bad trip last race. I think he's going wire to wire! and with Fierceness, it's a bounce day! Just a thought. it's horse racing! lol GOOD LUCK!
Bailey was a great jockey not so a tv host. Before the Belmont he said after the Preakness Justify looked very tired. After the race Mike Smith, the rider, said he came out great. Guess who was right.
@@joe56474 most "experts" aren't...I'm a 35 yr pro handicapper who does phenomenally well...I don't need to "sell" my picks. And 90 pct of the time,it's NOT a crapshoot. The best horses hit the board...
I once prepared a chart of all fractions for derby, which considered wet and sloppy tracks, and found the final average in those conditions to be as fast as 2:02 to and slow as :2:04? Fast track :1:59.
Forever Young just ran 4 wide around Dubia the ran the fastest final 400m ever in the UAE and was geared down. Sleep on him all u want. The 2 chalk horses are set to bounce while FY is 3rd off and expected to take another step forward, lol I m using him and Domestic Product as my key horses. GL to everyone
he ran fast late because they ran slow early. He did lose a lot of ground, but probably will again Saturday. They ran 10 lengths slower than the older horses at meydan (2:02 for 1 1/4 vs 1:58 for 1 3/16) and he beat absolutely nothing. Easy pitch for me and I liked Derma last year and respect the strides that the japanese have made in breeding the past 5-10 years.
@@umrfc8 lol, so funny hearing he beat nothing , he ran 100 beyer in Saudi on the wrong lead, ran 100 plus in dubia by Andrew Beyers own words but yeah he beat nothing. You act like the crops full of super stars over here,lol . Good luck to whoever u bet, I try to make money and Hes as good as any horse in the race and better then most
@@justsomeone9267 Luis Saez was suspended for 15 racing days after the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission determined that his ride aboard Maximum Security interfered with other riders in the Kentucky Derby.
The long shot is west Saratoga these people is over looking this horse he can run and he change gears at any time I think he can be the triple crown winner he can go two turns and 1 m and a half.
They don't know anymore than you and I . Same comments that are on every Derby pick websites. It's all blah blah blah- I can read the Racing Form as well as them--same old comments on every website. It's my money-I'll bet my picks with it. No excuses if I lose all the money if I win -but I can read the form like all the regular bettors do.
Hey someone please inform the nincompoops that the 3 horse is Mystic Dan, 🤦♂️. Kind of hard to take the analysis seriously if they can’t even get the correct horses running in the race. Smh
It was a typo. We are VERY busy Derby week and some things slip through the cracks. Must be difficult for you to understand as someone who CLEARLY never makes mistakes.
Tripple Crown Race's need to Have a limit of 12 horses! Half don't belong, and trainers just want to run them Just to see how they do; for Shits and giggles.
Fierceness doesn't win the derby, Florida derby was no other horses in the race,I hope he goes off biggest favorite in years,Sierra Leone wins, if he falls down then catching freedom wins...
The fact that post 17 hasn’t given us a winning Derby yet is not relevant. Fierceness is not just another Derby entrant , tough as they come . My pick . Don’t forget the Florida Derby Winner is always tough . ❤
I'm going 2 put Jerry on a horse if I were his agent. Lol. That's track phantom. Now Jerry breaks running sees the inside speeds dornoch just a touch t.o.password and whom ever else on inside let's the outside speed fierceness use his horse alittle let's him pass him Jerry tucks in 4th or 5th. Around the final turn makes his move passing the tiring speed hopes fierceness comes back just alittle and then hold off forego a la sierra leone. Simple. I don't put Jerry on t.p.cause I'm a t.p. fan but I do handicap and I want 2 put Jerry on the winner. That's how I c it. If t.p. comes in 10th so be it. But if it comes exactly as I say it. U owe me a call. Lol
