3 More Months Until it Begins... 

📢Game of Trades is now Bravos Research! Subscribe to our FREE Macro Report 📈👉 newsletter.bravosresearch.com

3 month from now is when people will start saying. "I guess this time is different"

"Picking up nickels in front of the steamroller". Then suddenly you realize the steamroller is really a train.

can we define what a recession? the small business owners I've talked to and amount closed down stores, paint a very different picture, than what politicians and media say it is. I overheard a woman at the mall telling her husband which credit card to use since all the other 3 are maxed out

Because, it's election year which means there is no recession this year.

Buffet going cash is probably the biggest red flag at the moment

Initial Jobless Claims is broken because it does not include voluntary layoffs. Claims are only paid for involuntary layoffs. Most layoffs by large corporations are voluntary layoffs which is why Claims have not reflected the announced layoffs by tech giants.

I wonder if things today continue to be bullish due to: - lots of retail investors (it's easier to invest/trade), propping-up the market a tiny bit - the 0% interest rates for a decade, then a massive inflation for a year, affecting the yields. - millennials turning NEET (work is pointless if you can't buy a house/etc, and you can survive with little nowadays), so you see lower unemployment % while actually fewer people are employed. - debt-ridden people taking multiple part-time jobs (skewing the jobs-reports heavily) - more people are moving away from full-time jobs, into part-time jobs (you can see it in the FED reports) Negatives: - With this inflation, companies are profiteering on the backs of customers (shrinkflation). Until people can't buy things like iPhones anymore, thus some companies take a hit. I'm probably wrong, and the indicator is still valid.

Unusual behavior = govt is messing with the numbers

Assessment of Recession Probability Next 1 Month: Probability: Low Rationale: Economic indicators like a strong stock market and declining inflation suggest continued short-term stability. Immediate recession risk is minimal. Next 3 Months: Probability: Low to Moderate Rationale: While the economy appears stable, the lagged effects of earlier rate hikes might begin to surface. However, the Fed's shift toward rate cuts could mitigate these effects. Next 6 Months: Probability: Moderate Rationale: Six months out is a window where delayed impacts of past monetary tightening may coincide with potential overreactions in financial markets. If corporate earnings falter or consumer spending declines, recession risks increase. Next 12 Months: Probability: Moderate to High Rationale: Over a year, the cumulative effects of prior rate hikes, potential market corrections, and global economic factors could elevate recession risks. The uninversion of the yield curve, historically, has sometimes preceded economic downturns.

Would love to know more about the timing between yield curve inversion and recession onset. Is there a typical lag?

Wouldn’t it be funny if it literally starts today

Your content is top notch. I love how it's data-backed, and you stay flexible in for all economic outcomes.

Where can I find these charts? Is it on the Bloomberg website? Can't find them there...

So what's the plan then Bravos?

I don't care when the recession starts - I'm more interested on whether the US stock market has topped - and I reckon it just has, so starting to short this new bear market!!!!

Government deficit is the largest noise in this data - How much higher can federal debt go. That's what will define the turning point

Yield curve inverted again today for a brief moment. Who decides when we are in a recession? The man behind the curtain? History also shows oil is the trigger.

It alignes perfectly with the election and the inauguration. Something will happen relating to that.

Great content. If u posted 10 times a day I’d still watch every single vid

so what does it mean now that its inverted again?

3:09 no argument. The stock market moved sideways/downwards from July 2007. The yield curve correctly predicted the recession, only the NBER labeled the wrong time of the recession. It started in July 2007, followed by another crack-up boom and then the big sell-off. The gray recession bars are not meaningful because the NBER has no clue.

I wonder if long-term bond prices will continue to fall, even as the Fed continues to cut rates?

Are banks not flush with liquidity this time around? It seems they haven’t stopped lending at all

Another thing to look at is the reverse repo as it runs down to nothing.

Thx for the quick reminder of the yield curve definition.

!!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.

US jobs is rubbish US figures - look under the hood and you see it's loads of part time government jobs and also a few part time bar and restaurant jobs - full time well paid jobs are dropping hard and fast - which is what we're seeing in corporate earnings announcements

I go for scenario B since I see it daily at my job, several people looking for job and we are cutting labor, on the other hand my opinion, not advice the curve will reach over 1% before everything start to plummet!

It is inverted again since 1 day.... They pump the yields....

when you uploaded this, inverted again

Your name is Peter ? From USA you sure?

Now, Chinese stock market is rising in a very fast speed. I think that’s not a good signal

It's a lagging indicator, anywhere from 3 - 18 months

Caught me off guard until I saw the graphs 😂😂

I got absolutely cooked today due to stupid hurricane hurting insurance companies lol

I got 60k now and I got no where to dump, everything is jacked up in the stock market.

Seems I heard rates re-inverted today..

Higher yields on short term than long term doesnt make sense and is a sign of a euphoric market.

This is some good research. I like your way of presenting economic situations. I feel like I could do well in this downturn with the knowledge you've given me. 😊

To really gauge the chances of a recession, you've got to compare it to economic data, however, if you believe the data currently being issued I have this wonderful bridge for you to invest in

I'm amazed it still hasn't collapsed. Canada's economy is super fucked and RE is crashing, yet Canadian stocks are at all time highs. USA is doing better but not much. Australia is also at all time highs.

How are you videos SO WELL EDITED. IT's crazy.

Are you aware of the 18 year cycle? The historic date you reference all align with the 18 year cycle. There's a number of economists that have been saying around 2026 as the start of downturn for many years, and the next 1-2 years will boom quite a bit more up to the start of the downturn.

How about the DJ Transportation Index? Remember Dow Theory.

X is an excellent indicator that the job market is absolutely cooked. Scenario B.

Anddd it’s inverted again lol

Dow is down 400 points today

Not Jan 25, but maybe Mar-Jun 25' everything falls

great video!

Great video, good job.

100% scenario A.

Thank you guys¡¡

Do you think the next election can circumvent this?

What did you make this video on?

Great job, gents! We're going to get a few weeks of surprise new jobless claims over the next few weeks because of Helene. The damage to the economy has been massively understated and, IMHO, hasn't been fully priced into the equity markets. Hurricanes are typically normal occurrences for this time of year, but western NC in particular is only just now starting to emerge from an information blackhole. My very uneducated estimate is an unexpected increase of between 400k and 600k new jobless claims over the next month from this region alone, based on the region's demographics, the geographic spread of catastrophic level damage to critical infrastructure in the region, and the slow pace of recovery made exceedingly difficult by the terrain. Not to mention, that the health of the entire semiconductor industry depends on the health of this region. Nvidia's forward P/E depends on nearly perfect performance over the next two years, and if this storm disrupts the high purity quartz supply chain to any marginal degree, we could see earnings slip and then a possible deterioration in the weighted indices. I have net bearish options positions, cash, and Yen, but I've had them since August.

Another excellent video

Does it matter if Trump or Kamela wins?

🇺🇸 GDP is up Because war supplies on two continents

Great content

simple answer: they do not start the recession before election😀

War Economy

This time it’s different 😂

Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.

April 2025

There is a lot of global tension going around, isn’t that good for the American economy? Like how many countries are buying weapons from the USA. Also nato countries had to apply the 2% spending to their defense budget. America has like crazy advanced weapons. Isn’t that filling the jobs and non farm payrolls? Let’s not hope for a recession

What about global scenario and war. ?

Thinking we're going to see the 1929 scenario. Blow off top very soon and a crash to zero

in 3 month it´s anniversary for 3 month channel name Bravos Research ;)

Can't wait

The creator of the yield curve inversion is the Canadian economist Campbell Harvey in his 1986 PhD thesis at the University of Chicago. He now gives very little to no weight on this metric.

Love Game of Trades

Screw it im escaping this doomed nation...the money .......crime... politicians...

Melt up incoming. Then the great reset.

I REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR CLEAR AND SIMPLE BREAKDOWN ON FINANCIAL PITFALLS! I LOST SO MUCH MONEY ON STOCK MARKET BUT NOW MAKING AROUND $18K TO $21K EVERY WEEK TRADING DIFFERENT STOCKS AND CRYPTOS.

1 minute gang!

it is already happening now!

hocus pocus

First

Michael Burry Research

B !

😥

My Ultra Operation Northwoods

Manufacturing in US 📉📉

Great video! GDP is trending at a 2% today. Do we know what the GDP was trending at in 1929 and 2008 right before the recession when the curve inverted? @gameoftrades @bravosresearch

Let it tank

Government deficit is the largest noise in this data - How much higher can federal debt go. That's what will define the turning point

First