@@scottstensland That's better than nothing, but like a lot of YT, it's vaguely dated. (Unless I'm missing something.) From Zeihan's comments, it seems his interview was in mid-March 2022.
I agree. In Vietnam, we fought the war and then tried to get out and turn it over to the South Vietnamese and called it Vietnamization. In the case of Ukraine, they are willing to face down a belligerent Russia they just ask for the resources. Call it Ukrainiazation. They are willing and capable. Russia is neither.
@@GetSmart519Yes, it does. We must do a better job of managing the decline of Russia than we did with the decline of the Soviet Union. Let's not be coy...the Soviet Union was always a Russian Imperialist project under another name. It's why all those former Warsaw states joined NATO. Because...Never Again.
@@GetSmart519 "doesn't matter" A country that doesn't honour its obligations has no right to call itself, "the land of the free and the home of the brave." If the USA is not going to honour its written promises to other nations, that line needs to change to, "the land of the cheap and the home of the fearful".
Interesting possibilities i hadn't considered; was a good discussion. Putin could cave in to Ukraine after he has exhausted his resources so that there would be nothing to pay for reparations. Then he would throw himself on the mercies of NATO to rebuild his economy like US did for Germany. If he did this, he would be so much better off. Putin may sense that a partnership with China would only put China at his back with a dagger at the ready. Since when has China ever honored their agreements? The CCP desperately wants the Siberian territory under their control. They already have their belt and road project there. Just a thought.
They seem to have adopted the Byzantine war strategy. Keep falling back and continue grinding until their brutal winters break the enemies back. It’s worked so far but that’s a brutal tactic on any nation
You guys are severely propagandized wow, there's no way USA beating Russia in a war. Just not happening sorry to burst your fantasy lala land bubbles but that's the reality.
0:46 _"We are also not tied to defending it..."_ You overlook The Memorandum of Budapest. If you want out of that promise, then give Ukraine back its nukes...if that is what you prefer.
What would be a great addition, if a subtitle with a date of the interview would be added, for these relatively time sensitive topics. For all 3 clips, it took me a minute, to contextualize an answer with a probable date of airing.
Exactly. For example the Peter Zeihan bit was recorded on April 7, 2022, just weeks after the start of the invasion, hence the talk about "digesting" Ukraine, passing the winter, etc.
@@ErikBruchez When I heard that I thought they were still in a hypothetical, it was when "...up until three weeks ago was thought to be the pro-west side of Ukraine..." that I realized this was an old clip.
Try problem with Peter though is that he believes so strongly in what he thinks when at the end of the day... it is just an opinion no where near fact.
Russia tries to solve it's demographic problems by assimilating the people of other countries which they can then send to their future wars. They do it right now with all the ethnic minorities with Russian passports. In the beginning you said that the USA are not bond to Ukraine like to countries that are in the NATO, but you forgot that the USA are part of the budapest memorandum in which they promised to help Ukraine if they would ever get invaded by Russia again. So it's the responsibility of the USA to help Ukraine win this war.
Most American disagree with this proxy war. Fk Ukraine. This deal wasn't made by the American people, this deal was made by a bunch of delusional and dangerous NeoCon war pigs who are still lying about the war. You and I know the only thing that this "support" does is kill more Ukrainians. It's a cruel grift.
Peter’s marketable product is confidence. The more confident he sounds the more books you can sell. I want him to go back and address all of those wrong predictions he made about the Ukraine Russia war. He promised that the Russian economy was going to collapse within weeks, he promised that Russia was gonna run out of missiles. He had me believing that the Russian army was so inept in corrupt that it was going to collapse and a revolt would probably take place in Moscow. He was just flat out wrong. Even when the Wagner boss looked like he was trying some revolt, nobody joined him. We didn’t even see demonstrations in various cities taking advantage of it. So I think Peter is a guy who reads a lot of books considers a lot of opinions and comes up with his own through a voice of confidence. The problem is, the experts are almost always wrong and consequently he is often wrong.
I enjoy listening to Peter’s analysis. He is great at identifying the most imperative problems and the motivations of the various players. I don’t listen to his conclusions. He is a fatalistic doomer. He consistently underestimates how innovative and committed a people can be to existential threats.
Predicting the future is hard. Knowing the timing is even more challenging. The figure will tell if the predictions are wrong or if merely the timing of the predictions was off.
Knowing Russia, I am delighted to hear such an accurate description of the administrative hierarchy by Ziehan, whose understanding of the world is mind-blowing. His analysis at 7:11 is accurate and precise. It is one of the reasons so many of the former Soviet "Republics" had to seek western assistance in their early days to establish functional local governance models for their cities, oblasts, and regions. They had never had any authority that did not need clearance from centralized government; one could argue that centralization even preceded the Soviet model back to the Tsar!
... Would be great if the entire West, beginning with Brussels and ending with Washington wasn't following the ever-increasing centralisation and central planning models, wouldn't it?
Nothing was establish it was all parachuted by the ex communist .How do you think the oligarchs become such power in all of the Eastern Block. Most of the Eastern Block was looking for investment and help to manage the huge burden of debts similar to what UK and France experience after the end of the second world war. I know from personal experience been one of the people who was assisting economical advisors and IMF for Bulgaria. The myth of that there was no structure please go back to school USSR had more structure and people employed in what was called oblast and cities then any local western capital or city.I run my own business and been in Melbourne,New York,Milan and Vienna there is huge difference in organisation or lack of it the only three places i seen any sort of organisation which is near to what Moscow,Minks,Kiev and Sofia use to be is today's Singapore and Abu Dhabi. The problem with most funds for regions and cities was most was stolen by the people in power,same happen to pension funds and loans taken by the government from the west in late 1980's till 1997 to some extend this made liberals in all of the Eastern Block really hated by the local population and thanks to it you got Putin,Orban and right wing Polish government in power today.
@@michbushiwe aren't That's why we were almost caught unprepared for conflicts entirely. Weak central government influence over planning for a major conflict. Also why COVID was so bad, same thing, too much off-shoring and out sourcing. We let corporations whose only motivation is quarterly reports drive business and manufacturing abroad, worst of all to China. How is that centralizing, when companies are left to do as they please, regardless of benefit or harm to American national security? If you're talking about those corporations developing more power and consolidating it around themselves, then I agree, that's a type of centralization. Except you were talking about government. 🤷🏻♂️
It’s a bit like Manchester United under Ferguson, who wanted to be remembered as the GOAT manager and left the club with the team peaking, but with no structure to keep the momentum going.
With you till you said Russia would digest Ukraine. Never gonna happen guys. For starters Poland has already said they would unilaterally intervene and join Ukraine on the battlefield if they saw that coming. And the Baltic states have also said it. Personally I think Ukraine will keep inching forward across the the whole front. Russia has zero chance of busting thru somewhere. In the end the Ukrainians will Winn by themselves. God knows I and the entire free world hopes so. There’s a lotta weight behind that.🇺🇸🇺🇦👍
Historically going into war with Russia always went very well for Poland. And Baltic states are known to be brutal warriors (in fact so brutal that at some point they joined USSR without a fight). Seeing US troops in Ukraine would be something fresh. After fighting scary bearded shepherds with AK47s in the desert I am sure, dealing with weak and demotivated Russian soldiers armed with only shovels will be a picnic and will take only one US marine with a knife (seen this many times in Call Of Duty). Good luck!
Zeihans point about it being about ru defense from ru pov is wrong. They would be fully mobilized from the beginning if that were true and the public believed it. They can't fully mobilize as the conscripts and a ru general would turn on Moscow like prighozin did
I love it when nobody ever mentions *HENRY KISSINGER* & Associates? Putin was involved in the St Pete mob (controller). Good old Alex Jones handler Dr Steve Pieczenik admits how he helped get the Russian Orthodox Church (KGB run). This was on Pieczenik's own channel-if it is still up. which I doubt
Not at all. Russia may survive in some form or fashion but not in any way we recognize today. There will be a country on the map called Russia but it will not be the same map. Russia also included the nations that broke away from the Soviet Union, but they have not returned, not even Belarus. Russia has gone through four governments since 1900 and every time it has been at a change of geography. What does Ziehan have so "mixed up"?
@@joiedevie3901 Not at all. The USA may survive in some form or fashion but not in any way we recognize today. There will be a country on the map called the USA but it will not be the same map. The USA also included the states that seceded during the Civil War, but they have been reintegrated, including Florida. The USA has gone through multiple governance changes since its foundation and every time it hasn't necessarily been due to a change of geography, but rather due to moral decay. Is anything Ziehan says reliable?
@@attilaszekeres7435 You clearly have no understanding of the difference between governments and nationhood. The United States is still operating under the same Constitutional Government as the day the nation was founded in 1789. In fact, the only nation today that has an older constitution is San Marino. Russia does not: not even close. Since 1900, Russia has seen an absolute monarchy; a constitutional monarchy; a provisional government that declared a democratic federal republic (with a co-existing socialist establishment called the Petrograd Soviet); the Bolshevik government, which led to the USSR, and the independent Russian Federation. Nothing you have cited about US history contradicts the fact that the US is still functioning under the same government it had the day the nation was founded and that Russia is not. Your reference to the US Civil War is an irrelevant non-sequitur. The US won and continued under the same Constitution which allowed for the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the same Constitution that founded the nation-and still exists to this day-to reunite the nation with new purpose. By the way, Russia was the only true ally the US had during the Civil War sending naval support to NYC Harbor and San Francisco Bay. Six Russian Sailors were buried with honors at the historic Mare Island Military Cemetery north of San Francisco for their bravery in fighting the San Francisco fire of 1863. The sale and purchase of Alaska was a result of that friendship between the two nations, which regrettably ended at the turn of the 20th century. However, where history is concerned, your argument shows either a gaping ignorance, a willful intent to dissemble, an inability to think clearly, or an impoverished English vocabulary where you do not understand the difference between the words “government” and “nation.” Whatever the reason, you totally miss the point, and you are absolutely wrong. Since you are clearly a sycophantic Russian acolyte, you may take solace in the fact that France is also on its fifth republic since the US founded its own-so don’t feel so alone. Finally, you have more nerve than Putin did when he published his mendacious 12 July 2021: « Об историческом единстве русских и украинцев » to shill for a country that professes kinship to the Ukrainian people and then shows it by killing, raping, and crippling them by the thousands not to mention the families Russia has destroyed. You dare accuse anyone of moral decay when you advocate for a nation that does not have enough moral authority to kill a roach? No better proof of your pathetic understanding of history and morality exists than how you conveniently forget that it was Soviet Russia that entered the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact with the Nazis that allowed Hitler to invade Poland and start WWII, with Russia taking more of its territory than Hitler did and then invading the Baltic States and trying to take Finland who stopped Stalin’s advances. This is history that your master Putin also conveniently forgets when he spouts his fairly tales that you swallow like cider. Moral decay?-it is a miracle you do not choke on yours since you have already been blinded by it. Why do you think that the former Warsaw Pact and the Baltic States joined NATO? It was not because they were forced to at gun point, which is Russia’s way. It was because they know the truth about Russian history that you clearly do not. It is hard to measure which is worse: your ignorance or your hypocrisy.
Love 'em both. Different perspectives. Peter speaks so confidently you have to remind yourself that there is plenty of room for doubt, solar flares, asteroids, death of leaders, blah, blah, blah. Vlad is exceptionally good at staying in his own lane . . . and expressing doubt.
Russian gas for Europe has been replaced with long contracts elsewhere. In fact it was replaced over a year ago. They can go whistle as there will be near no impact no matter what Russia does. Where is the European recession going to come from?
In order for there to be a breakup of Russia (or China for that matter), there needs to be a second tier of leadership for these breakaway areas to organize around. As far as I can tell, other than Chechnya, that doesn't effectively exist in either of these countries. You are more likely to see a military dictatorship than breakups.
I definitely think other regions (particularly Georgia and Chechnya) will look at a severely hampered Russian military and economy and see this as an opportunity. But I think you're right it would result in military dictatorships and civil wars for years to come and I think the west doesn't have the appetite to prop up any more corrupt regimes.
Andropov was a patron of Gorbachev as Gorbachev was a local administrator and according to his memoirs he was a lawyer from the agricultural ministry. Gorbachev wasn’t KGB.
During Nord Ost terror act there was a Bulgarian delegation visiting Moscow. According to official program of the visit they had to be in the theatre together with some representatives of Moscow's Duma. The last minute the visit of the theatre was cancelled because "they forgot to buy tickets".
@@obxarms7685really cause China really is going through deflation and China has had second guesses about invading tawian or at least has had to stop and think about it proving peter righ5
@@obxarms7685 Except he hasn't. He has been wrong about some thing. He gets details wrong from time to time as well. But he has been reasonably more accurate than most when it comes to general outcomes and the continuity of events. But he isn't Nostradamus. He isn't trying to give perfect renditions of visions of the future. He's making calculated estimates based on objective data in context to emergent events as they occur. It's more akin to weather forecasting than anything else. It's dealing with dynamic turbulent systems, where details are unpredictable but broader patterns can be seen. Saying he is wrong about everything is about as stupid as saying he's right about everything.
That’s why Russia is killing civilians and stealing their children but not many are talking about that. U can die with pride or without and looks like they are going out with a blaze of glory in their eyes.
Have to laugh when your 2nd guest says North China (PRC) wants South China (ROC) "back", as though they ever controlled that part of the Qing empire. This empire is split, not unlike Korea, just on a much larger scale.
Of course, the Democratic People's Republic of [North] Korea, at one point during the Korean War, actually _did_ control almost all of present-day Republic of [South] Korea.
@@andrewscott8892Case in point. Shenzhen in the 80s, 50,000 people. Shenzhen today 15 million people all living in apartments. Meanwhile 300 million village people will move to city apartments in the next 30 years. How many vacant apartments are there? Do the math, dude.
Jordan you are not aware of the Budapest Memorandum ? When the Soviet Union collapsed the country Ukraine was born and they had so many land based nuclear weapons based in their country that they were now the third largest holder of nuclear weapons in the world. The Budapest Memorandum was the answer to this problem for it got Ukraine to give up every single nuke they had and it was signed by Russia, the U.S. and Great Britain as well and happened on December 5th 1994. It said that Russia would not invade Ukraine and if Ukraine got invaded The U.S. and Great Britain would assure their territorial integrity if Ukraine gave up their nukes and Ukraine gave them up every last one ! They kept their word so we should keep ours. But wait you are telling people we have no real interest or business being in Ukraine which is dead wrong on your part ! We agreed to defend them and they come through on their part of the agreement so why do you advocate for us to go back on the deal and break are word ? Jordan you are dead wrong on this one and you need to fix your mistake by educating your subscribers on The Budapest Memorandum and its implications on the war and our (U.S.) involvement. We are in Ukraine because we promised to protect them if they gave up their Nukes, they did so we should it really is that simple ! Please fix you mistake by learning about the Budapest Memorandum and correcting the misinformation you have caused. I do not think you did this intentionally yet it is still a mistake. Thank you and in general you do a good job and I like your show.
Democrat Bill Clinton pushed for the Budapest Memorandum and Democrat Obama failed to support Ukraine. But to be fair, the security assurances in the Budapest Memorandum were weak, and no country should give up their WMDs. It was a disaster for Ukraine and it was a disaster for Libya.
If you don't know Zeihan worked for Stratfor Corp, which hired retired intelligent anylase agents (like CIA) they gave security analysis of countries, for major corporations! (Rane Corp, bought them.) Which does same thing! (Is this or that country safe to do business with?) Zeihan spent 12 years at Stratfor, eventually rising to vice-president
yep and if Peter doesn't mention it sometimes it's best that you don't mention it. He is very clear on his description of how the leadership of certain countries works and the unlikelihood of them working things out because of that
From someone who has worked in Ukraine, the stereotype of "Eastern Ukraine is pro Russia and Western Ukraine is pro Ukraine" is just plain BS. Ukraine is in fact much more complex, with Tatars, Hungarians, Polish cultural identities. Ukraine has been a part of many different empires, invaded so many times and seen so many population movement that it is a mosaic. Actually, it is the case of most European countries like Spain with Catalan (derived from Occitan), Basque (pre Indo-European), Galicia (Celtic), Asturias, Andalucía (Moorish history) and Castilla-Leon, the dominant culture that has imposed itself on the others. Most people in Ukraine just identified with their region. They will say "I am from Odessa", being Ukrainian was an afterthought. Getting bombed by Russians changed that. National identities are often forged by wars, wars of independence (Americas), revolutions (France), against an invader (Great patriotic war for USSR).
Doesn’t Ukraine have similar demographic problems? I am on the side of Ukraine, cheering for them. I know they have attracted some fighters from the outside world, and they are definitely rallying against Russia. But hasn’t their birth rate been similar to Russia? Although, I think Ukraine has lost fewer soldiers in this war than Russia has.
Note, the Russo-Ukraine war is Russia's last war due to demographics, BUT we have to stop Russia in the Ukraine so it doesn't go on and start other wars. The logic is a little lacking.
not quite , Article five do not supersede the supremacy of members governments to decide on war "“It’s not like a trigger mechanism. It doesn’t mean that tomorrow every single country in NATO responds with a full military invasion of Russia,” Joel Rubin, a former deputy assistant secretary of State, said. The diplomatic nature of an Article 5 invocation is by design. It allows the alliance the necessary pause and diplomatic toolkit to respond to an aggression on its own terms. “If you think about it, if [it’s a trigger mechanism], you’ve given Russia all control over the battlefield. They decide when there is a war. They decide whether or not we get involved. No. We have control. We have agency over what our actions are,” Rubin said. “Article Five is an incredibly powerful diplomatic tool. So it gives options for a Polish response. That’s what it does. It gives options. It doesn’t give requirements,” Rubin said.
Learn your history back in 1999 we the US and all the European countries signed a treaty with Ukraine that we would defend them from Russia if they gave up their Nukes. They gave them up where are we what happened to the treaty
I think there’s one huge flaw in Zeihans analysis of the strategic weakness in Russias western flank and how it’s historically how they’ve been invaded: the invention of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons aren't nearly as effective against threats from within. No better way to galvanize your own populace against you than to start nuking them.
No flaw, he mentions it occasionally. It's just not a practicke invasion defense plan compared to closing the gaps. I believe putin will use a select number of tactical nukes in E Europe if conventional methods don't succeed, and I don't think America will save Europe's ass if he does. Giving Russia a handful of NATO countries is a small price to pay to prevent full-scale Armageddon, especially with any real chance of nuke strikes on our mainland.
I have spent time in Moscow last year and then just last month.. it's a great city.. clean hardly any graffiti.. easy to get around.. cheap food.. it's a dream.
Now try living there a little bit longer, so you can that “welcome” feeling from xenophobic russians or illegal immigrants that don’t abide any law there.
@@melidiosone9262 Melididio .. I'm also talking about crime in California where I've lived for years and the crime is off the charts.. murder and all the rest.. just like you've seen on the videos.. whereas in Russia most of the guys look like they're military.. short hair and not trying to be obnoxious just for fun with the gangster style and pants down to their knees..
We can all be critical of other nations whilst ignoring the danger in our own. As a westerner I felt safe on the streets in Russia, Poland, Hungary & Czech Republics. Parts of London I would not hang about in.
There would be Nothing left of Ukraine either - they need this war to be over much sooner, but they also need a win. Best case scenario for Russia, is that it splits up into multiple smaller countries each of which become democracies. But that’s maybe not very likely.
That is very true. All the demographic problems that Russia has so does Ukraine, and on top of it they are in the middle of a total war waged on their territory. Even if they win their future looks like they will be become the rural agricultural backwater of the EU. It is tragic but still better than being a Russian puppet state with wealth directed to Moscow.
I am Jewish, and a US veteran, having served with no particular valor. You're worried about the Russians? I suggest you get your children up to speed, that they be of significant mettle, because they're not going to be able to find behind their tallies and tefillin.
There is only one trick in Peter’s pocket, demography, once you listened most of his analysis to hot issues, you would wonder if his one for all approaches would really work.
He is loose with the facts and gets many things wrong. Peter Zeihan is obviously a mouthpiece for the Neocon warmongers, because he paints this as Russia the aggressor when in fact we know the U.S. (my country) has been the aggressor. Thus Peter is setting up the U.S. public to believe Russia will instigate the coming war with NATO when in fact it will be the U.S.. 12:12 it is not great to hear Zeihan referring to a war that starts next year involving all Baltic states.
Peter Zeihan is so smart and knowledgable that he doesnt really need half of his brain. 😂😂 I sincerely hope he is right about Russia, but he is full of it, sadly.
He is obviously right about the Birthrate "demographic" decline. you can check results for yourself, Russia, like European Countries has been having 1.7-1.8 children per woman for generations… "this is at the top group of European countries, but is still significantly insufficient for replacement levels and this war the accumulated casualties involved, will put them way below all other European countries and de to the technology andpopulation Increases, the last 70 years, doesn't allow for a war on the scale of the world wars, which this war has become - Especially for the attacking country *Logically massive industrial decline is coming to Russia, Unless the digital age Dramatically changes the rules of what's required and it loooks like at least 20 years of further advancemen are required before This Becomes Likely
He is what a Joeseph Smith would have looked like back in the day, very convincing but 100% full of it...All anyone has to do is think, just think about how and where he is getting his information. Joseph Smith claimed it was God, Zeihan never really claims anything because it's just thoughts in his head.
@@zolnsalt No, anyone with brains does critical reasoning on his points to see if they hold. Thinking about where he gets his information is Speculative and subjective and best *But on that topic, you need to do more research on "Cyber warfare", because it is underreporteed and involves the bulk of investment from 1st world countries, in defeence spending over the last 15 years at least. Researching this directly, exposes good evaluation techniques, revealing that The top 4 countries in investment and capabiliity, in terms of offensive, defensive and gathering of Intel domestic surveillance, through advancements in Cyber Infiltration E.g. hacking teams, are(As of:July, 2023) 1) USA 2)China 3) UK 4), Russsia. China in the last 5 years has gone ahead of the UK on this, but USA was significantly ahead of the rest over the last 10-15 years, so the Intel available to those privy to the information, is acccurate and considerable, as Russia's defensive cyber operations, protectting against Intel gatheriinng, have been lacking, especially against the US and the UK, up until the last 5 years
Russia has been a demographic disaster for decades now. They aren't just low birthrate like Europe, they've been in negative for years. Last I saw it was something like -9%. Their people are miserable. They have both a low birthrate and low life expectancy. They have huge substance abuse problems. And they're so poor in most of the country that they can't even get even crap vodka, so they resort to drinking methanol. If you want a visual treat, look up Krokodil. Lovely stuff. Russia basically hates itself. It's actually really sad given what it could be.
my wife is from Mariupol and his father was russian. not ethnic russian but born in Russia. Now she detest and hates russians. although she cant avoid speaking russian because ukrainian is a foreign language to her. she understands it, but you know how it works. german Jewish didnt stop using german at home just because they suffered holocaust. so yes, this will take decades to heal. only when everybody in charge in Russia is dead and most adults will be born after the war and its consecuences its over.
it is bs to say "Putin will be the last competent president of the Russian federation"; countries, we know from history can produce great leaders and also terrible ones at any moment. Peter Zohar speaks with irrational confidence about outcomes that rational people do not dare to try to predict. Of course, if you predict all the time, sometimes you will be right and few people will remember predictions that do not come to pass. Peter to me makes little sense, it is all about shoking people, always producing a never ending stream of "headlines", just entertainment.
Listening to this, I fell back on an old puzzle - all those dates we see tagged as "bc" : how do they know that? It's parallel with these guys prediction of the future.
Zeihan is wrong when he says from ru pov that it's about survival. If that was the case then they'd be fully mobilized from say 1 and the public understands this. Which is why Putin hasn't done it.
As a demographer/statistician, I assure you almost everything he says is wrong. Adjusted for actual ethnicity the US is demographically worse off than Russia His whole schtick, as a dc thinktanker, is to define "Americans" as US located consumers. In terms of actual lineage and descendants of current families, Russians will actually outlast Americans. He deliberately compares apples (ethnic Russians) to oranges (US mass immigration) when he talks of "survival".
I object to the sentence China wants Taiwan "back". The CCP do not own Taiwan and never did and is only 70 years old. Taiwan belongs to the people who live on the island.
I would appreciate it if you would address the major shift not only in demographic quantity but also in demographic quality. Unfortunately, the demographic segments that are flooding the third and developed world are the most ignorant, unproductive, retrograde, and fanatical, to the tune of 10,000 of these people being born every hour, 24/7/365. Meanwhile, countries where most Nobel laureates and people worth having come from are going extinct.
Abortion and birth control don’t help the demographic situation either. These two things became prominent across the modern world in the middle of the 20th century.
Access to the internet can solve this problem since foresight and good judgement does not correlate with genetics. Find those who can forecast their next saving account balance every month and collect statistics of these rigorously resolved, unbiased statistics. Give up on the Great Replacement Theory and adopt real IMPARTIALITY!
It does *not* matter that they're ignorant, unproductive, retrograde, fanatical, etc. All that matters is that they're hungry for all the material things. They'll demand stuff, our governments will have you and I provide that stuff, and those hordes will consume. Our corporations will have no shortage of consumers, and THAT is all that matters.
Russia has a huge alcholism problem and a massive domestic violence problem and a huge divorce rate problem..couple that with a low birth rate, a war of attrition, no immigration and a population fleeing their country..well what you have is a population flat lining.
These interviews are over a year old and it’s obvious that Peter was way off the mark about Russia devouring Ukraine and Moldova. Actually his whole thesis of Russia needing to shore up it borders no longer holds water with the advent of nuclear weapons.
The Peter Zeihan bit was recorded in April 2022, just weeks after the invasion. This said, many analysts still thought, tat that time, that Russia would manage to take over much of Ukraine.
re Russian Theater Hostage crisis at 9:52 - Wikipedia reports that out of 850 hostages, 130 died from the gas (a fentanyl derivative) - so they lost about 15% of the hostages. Whether this was the best possible outcome or not, is open to debate; but this is what happened. Mr. Zeihans assertion that 3/4 of the hostages were killed, is not correct.
The Ian Bremmer interview is plainly dated by the "if Putin happened to fall down some stairs..." idiocy phase that went through Western media at the time.
Young Americans have no desire to fight for the system that screwed us. Why would we? Our parents left us a broken world and without the skills, knowledge, or resources to do anything about it. Then blamed us for being "lazy", or "entitled".
There's nothing just about killing strangers because another stranger told you to. The US backed the overthrow of the legal ukranian state in 2014. There's nothing just about that.
I totally disagree with the assessment of why Russia has invaded Ukraine. Putin is not afraid of NATO on his borders one bit because he knows NATO has 0 desire to invade Russia, so why would he invade the neighbouring countries for some military defensive strategy?. He invaded Ukraine and others to consolidate his position as dictator of Russia. He saw the political situations in counties like Ukraine and Georgia and how they were shifting towards being a real democracy and more EU cooperation, and this damages his position as dictator. He also saw that the people in these countries were rising up and protesting. This is Putins worst nightmare
It is impossible for me to believe that Europe and western countries have not taken steps over the last 30 years to make sure Russia’s nuclear arsenal is not a threat when the inevitable downfall of the Russian empire happens. I think Putin is allowed to pretend for his own security that the nukes are still viable, but only as long as he doesn’t attack a NATO country…at all. This would explain why despite his countrymen screaming for the use of tactical nukes, Putin has appeared blissfully deaf.
So Russia will digest ukraine within a year but will also fall apart when the war goes on for 5 years...this dude is the most well informed misinformed I've seen on ukraine
Here are the reasons you actually need Ukraine. 1. Food Stability. Instability quickly finds its way to the US. 2. Defense Innovation. The US is learning more in Ukraine now than 20+ years combined in Iraq/Afghanistan. 3. EU Stability. Putin has told us his plans. Experts agree. The Baltics are next. 4. Black Sea Partner. Just because we have ignored a coherent policy thus far, doesn't mean we can going forward. Ukraine is essential to EU and NATO security. Essential = NEED
300 children were murdered, horrifically maimed & life-long traumatised in the Beslan attack. Never mind their families. Three hundred children. Is that real? Does that matter?.....
As a Brit and therefore fairly neutral, theres a few hypocrisies in this discussion. Apart from the fact that theres alot of conspiracy theory stuff, when talking about the strong men running Russia, when was the last US President that didnt come from a military background, when discussing the lies told by Putin to start a war, are you suggesting that the vast majority of US invasions in recent history weren't based on lies??
One of the most problematic conundrum for Putin's prosecution of the Ukraine War, under the Russian military doctrine of overwhelming an enemy with waves of expendable cannon fodder. Is that in previous iterations of the Russian and Soviet militaries, they had a captive population. Either the Soviet system where travel and movement was restricted, even for those who might have been able to afford it. There was NO emigration. Prior to 1917, the majority of the population were dirt poor and so they were a reliable source of fodder. The waves of people, mostly military aged males, flooding and fleeing Russia, at the train stations and clogging highways seen a year ago. Would have never been possible 20-30 yrs ago
