Yeah, just coming up with random figures doesn't make it analytical. I took the wrong and way too simple method and said probably an average of 10 per borough and came up with 50 which wasn't far from what he had.
I think the point of this video is to illustrate the thinking process. If you were asked a question like this in an interview, the interviewer probably wouldn't care much if you estimated the population of NYC to be 8.5M or, say, 10M (which was my estimate without doing any research and only having some basic high-school geography knowledge). What they would look at is how you approach solving the problem. If you came up with 70-something piano tuners instead of 50-something, that would still be pretty close to Mr Thompson's estimate, and to the actual number of piano tuners he says he found in NYC.
@@BM-uf4pp before watching the full video, I tried to solve the problem as well, with a different approach. In the end, I got stuck, and didn't solve the problem on my own. However, I don't think there is necessarily a "wrong" approach. It just depends on what kind of information you already know. For example, I know nothing about boroughs, or US city structure in general. But I have some basic knowledge about population geography. I don't think his numbers were random. They were estimated based on his general knowledge of the world. For example, he estimated the average size of a household to be 3. Seems legit. Could be 4, could be 2 or 5, we don't know. But he said 3 which seems fine. He didn't say 30. That would be random.
I was half way watching the video thinking to myself that I really couldnt grasp the concept of it. Thank god looking at the comments made me feel Im not alone. I lost it at when he was spewing random numbers out of nowhere and it ended up confusing me. I got the the part where he chunks the logical steps to be used though
Households in New York City are less likely to have pianos that need to be tuned due to the fact that most people in new york city do not live on the first floor of buildings, so having a grand piano or baby grand piano would not be ideal over an electric keyboard. Love the way of thinking tho would have never thought to turn the google question mathimatical!
For me is how a particular thing or problem works. Then using my theories I know to help me solve them. Finding the available resources to use. Then application of trial and error and what's best and safest. Lastly, conclusion and remember everything to use them in the future like what to prevent and what are do's and dont's. This is me everyday of my life like I enjoy solving even a single drop of bird poop on the window. I'm nerd and always like being alone and reserved. but "who cares how many piano tuners are there in a certain area, right?"
Hi Sean! Do you think we can break down those layers even further and not only include households, but pianos in music stores and concert halls (such as Broadway, etc)? Thank you.
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I like this ! I would include that NYC could have a little bit more pianos or tuners since that’s where the Broadway shows are and I image that they have more pianos needing to be tuned !!
The issue with having too many "layers" is that you chain inaccuracies and assumptions together. So if one layer is inaccurate or had the wrong assumption, the end answer will inherit that inaccuracy
There are other factors unaccounted for such as schools and performance halls or other establishments (like all the TV studios that have live bands) that would own pianos but not count as households, and then on the converse side there are a large number of low income and medium income households/apartments that don't own a piano. A quick google search says approximately 1-1.5 hours for a basic tune and longer if repairs or pitch correction is needed. Honestly the number of people that do not own a piano wouldn't be balanced out by the number of pianos owned by schools, performance halls and other entities, so we can reduce the number of pianos by half as much but then use 100% of pianos needing to be tuned in a year which basically gets you back to your original number kind of... More specific data is available on household numbers, income, etc... Analyzing information should be done with more specific data IMHO. A piano tuner is likely able to tune more than 2 pianos in a day, especially if a number of clients live close to one another. Other factors would be new pianos need more tuning in the first few years... These last two little bits may be the variants that weren't accounted for that might have been able to give you a closer number to actuality in New York CIty, assuming they only worked directly in the city and the dozens of other factors that change averages and other numbers bit by bit.
I have an idea. Please comment on me if it is wrong. Check how many piano stores are there and how many piano brands are there in new york city. get a number like 1.5 or 2 on an average of all the stores(some may have 1 and some may have 2. Depending on which place they are in also). And some maybe freelancing it. So it might give a average count much faster.
I was lost when he determined the 20% of the piano needs to be tuned well how do u get to that number I mean some of them break strings some damaged by other factors so how many stays in good condition to be tuned.
Bro, you have said that 5 in 1 person have a piano then we can directly divide the population by 5 then we get the total number of pianos in new york city.
Okay. I doubt any of us are going to be able to google New York's population during a interview and get all of this information...….. I'm so confused. You wont know that UNLESS you take your phone out in front of the interviewer and google it.
With all respect, the Google question is a TERRIBLE question for analytical thinking exercise. What reasoning did he use to come up with his guess work? He could just as easily have guessed every house hold has 10 pianos. This is a profoundly flawed lesson. This is so bad, that I find it hard for anyone to think this video teaches you any thing useful. One would have to KNOW how many pianos there are. You would have to KNOW how many pianos a tuner can tune in one day, and if they typically work 5 days a week, etc. You would have to KNOW how often a piano needs tuned. Wild guessing gets you nowhere. I'm not surprised Google uses this kind of reasoning.
There are just too many variables left out of this 'analytical thinking'. Not every household has a piano, for example. I'd say you'd have to take things like average income, space availability (since maybe some people may afford to buy a piano, but don't have that much space to put it, specially in NYC...), personal preferences, etc. There's no accurate answer to this question, even if one uses actual statistic numbers.
The question isn't the issue in this case hes explaining the process of analytical thinking which is what most people clicked on the video for, realistically speaking no one came here looking for the answer of how many pianos are tuned, instead by learning the methodology of how he approached it is the key to take from this video not the question itself
Yeah, I found myself rolling my eyes at every estimation in the video. This method is a total flop. What if someone knows nothing about pianos and just making wild assumptions. That isn't very analytical or useful.
sean John, you should definitely take my Analytics 101 class. this had nothing to do with Analytical thinking, there were too many untouched variables, and you have not used any firm reasoning in the whole answer, Terrible Example to say the least.
If you want to check if your thinking is analytical, here's a question: A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? So if you solve this one correctly than you know the meaning and application of analytical thinking. If not, you're a logical thinker.
You made an huge assumption that it was only private ownership and private households. It’s ethically vital to distinguish variables (bias, assumptions, etc) when setting up a problem solving model.
Rollerskates yeah that’s right before the age of 23 your brain isn’t fully developed and weed deletes brain sails. but i don’t think dumb is the right answer considering that dumb means unwilling or unable to speak ha-
@@Ħæïķăł yup and cow teaches better than your teachers. We even have buffaloes, sheeps and goats. We just don't have donkeys, I guess because you are in another country.
Don't know but that was kind of a bad example. why would you do it the way you did? Just google it.. I think the real analytical part comes after you have the number of piano tuners. Cause what does that number tell you. What do you want to do with that number?
Why don't you just Google how many music shops that sell pianos. And however many music shops that sell music shops there will be one person per shop that work at the music shop that sell pianos. So if there are 20 music shops that sell pianos then there are 20 people in New York that tune pianos.
I would have said there is 1 piano every 1000 people and one piano tuner every 1000 pianos. That makes arround 8,5 piano tuners. Wich is probably wrong. Let's say 1 piano every 500 people and one tuner every 500 pianos (how would they pay their bills if the ratio was lower). Now we have 34 piano tuners. That is more reasonable.
Additionally I don't think a piano tuner tune two piano per day. They'll all be rich if that was the case. It must be something more like two per month.
I followed his link to yelp search results for best piano tuning and a hole lot of the results are piano movers or stores, what makes my prediction more correct (even knowing most piano tuners don't have obligation to be in yelp)
But you are wrong because there might be a piano nerd who own 10 pianos or more and tune them all himself. Or maybe 10 of those nerds which makes up to 100 pianos. And you only counted the registered tuners. You have no clue if it takes 3 hours to tune a piano? All things you are saying is just random guesses. Plus that also companys, music stores, schools, operas etc. might be having pianos so they are not even included in the households. There are so many aspects so it is absolutely impossible to think that way.
If you ever need an Editor I will edit your videos for a small fee. Your information far exceeds the production quality of the video. No offense. Everyone has there strong points
What he was explaining is the art of approximation. He messed up by not telling you that this type of analytical thinking is not a form of thinking to find an accurate answer. Instead is to see how a person thinks. In Google interviews for an example, they will ask questions you can't answer because they don't want the accurate answer they want to know how your mind would go about answering a problem without knowing anything about it. How else do you think INNOVATION works? We don't know everything in the world so we have to use our own logic and reasoning to make up numbers that fit that logic. Our technology wasn't built upon accurate thinking. It was built upon logic and reasoning. You can't know everything, but you can make a complex problem easier.
The method is often used in real-time business situations to scrutinize information that is presented. As a consumer of data/info you can use this to accept / reject / challenge bad/misleading data….happens all the time.
Oh dear..... This is the exact opposite of analytic thinking. Start by defining what a piano tuner is. Somebody who can tune a piano, are the all working full time or even working. Can they be retired? A lot of guessing and ending up whith a number that is close to something? ASSUMPTION IS THE MOTHER OF ALL FUCKUPS!
Those gestures and mimics feels so learnt and fake. Not natural at all, makes me feel opposite than it should. I had to stop the video because it was so irritating. Sorry
@@jaycharles6441 hey i watched all your videos nothing wrong in that. Your videos are awesome. 👍But that time RU-vid showing me so much adds on your videos. I think 4-5.
This is dumb. The primary thing in analytics is get your data correct. No assumptions. If you want to go by only assumptions, you will have a 95% chance of overshooting the conclusion.
