As PM Modi picks the same team for diplomacy and national security- will there be any changes in Indian Foreign Policy in his third term with a coalition in charge ? What’s on his agenda for travel, and what are the foreign policy priorities for the new NDA government?
This week we want to get you primer on what to expect in Foreign Policy in the third term.
First, the NDA government’s core team dealing with diplomacy and national security remains the same:
1. EAM S Jaishankar- who met with leaders from the neighbourhood this week even before his portfolio was announced took charge, spelling out some of the priorities- and catch phrases of the new term
2. NSA Ajit Doval
3. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh
4. There are 2 new Ministers of State
KirtiVardhan Singh- who went to Kuwait for the fire tragedy
Pabitra Margherita
For those who follow these beats closely, watch out for these appointments:
Foreign Secretary- As FS Kwatra’s extension ends in October- who will be the new FS, and will Mr. Kwatra be appointed to an ambassadorial post
Deputy NSA - As Vikram Misri is tipped to return to the MEA as the FS
Ambassadors to US, UN and France
Let’s get to what the Foreign Policy Priorities of the new government will be:
1. Neighbourhood is important, keep the comfort zone close:
-Invite to all the neighbouring countries of SAARC minus Pakistan and Afghanistan and IOR with good ties
-Special effort for Maldives President Muizzu, given the tensions of past months
-In Afghanistan and Myanmar, no recognition for Taliban or Military junta regimes
Expect bilateral visits in the next few months Sri Lanka, Bangladesh etc
-Trouble zone of China and Pakistan will be on agenda, but different tacks with both
With China,
-An early détente over LAC situation will be key, possible meeting with Xi Jinping next month on sidelines of SCO
-After 2 years, China is back as India’s biggest trading partner
Even so, Pres Xi Jinping did not greet PM Modi it was Premier Li Qiang who sent a message
-Significant that Beijing hosted Pakistan PM Sharif last week, even as election results and swearing in was taking place in India, issued a joint statement including parts on Jammu Kashmir that MEA objected to
With Pakistan
-No early détente expected, although Pakistan FM has hinted at movement on trade
-Attack in Jammu on day of swearing in is part of growing violence in JK, will make any engagement with Pakistan difficult
3. Global Power Balance
-PM Modi is expected to continue the tightrope walk over the geopolitical rivalries between US and the West and Russia and Global South
-PM was in Italy for the G-7, as India was one of 12 countries invited to the outreach, meeting with western leaders including Biden, Sunak, Macron, Scholz, Meloni and Ukraine President Zelenskyy who was a special invitee
Next month will be in Kazakhstan for the SCO summit Putin, Xi, Sharif, Iran, Central Asian leaders expected
Plans to host Quad Summit later this year, but also to travel to Russia for BRICS summit
-India will maintain its stance on Russia-Ukraine war
New Delhi will keep focus on Global South issues particularly on Food, Fuel, Fertilizer security
4. UN and multilateral forum leadership
-Keep up the push for UN reform
In September India is expected to make a renewed pitch for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council along with G-4 partners Brazil, Germany, Japan, they also advocate a seat for Africa
-Memberships for other groupings like NSG will be pursued
5. Trade agreements
-FTAs with UK, Australia, EU, GCC, Oman on the anvil
-FTA talks with Canada on hold
-Revision of FTAs with ASEAN etc required, given RCEP in place
-In the US a Trump government could restart FTA talks as well
WV Take:
While no major changes are expected on the foreign policy front, given the team in place for the new NDA government- there are certain indicators one can glean- In a third term, leaders often turn inwards towards domestic reforms and consolidation rather than new policies, and more reactive than proactive to international developments. Of particular concern is to ensure that intractable relations- whether with China, Pakistan, Canada, Turkey or the Maldives are not neglected, even as New Delhi shores up its ties with traditional friends.
Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar
Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan
00:00 - Intro
00:40 - NDA's core team
02:39 - What will be the foreign policy priorities?
08:40 - Modi's travel agenda
9:20 - Single party vs coalition
10:05 - WV take
10:44 - WV Reading recommendations
23 июн 2024
