4 Dividend Companies I Don't Own, Here's Why | Joseph Carlson Ep. 191 

Happy Friday Everyone! If you haven't tried out Qualtrim Insights, you're missing out: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson My portfolio: m1finance.8bxp97.net/WDdxAA Don't listen to bots that are pretending to be me. I will never try to contact you through text message or snapchat. And I'll never try to sell you on crypto.

Probably not the place for this but your graphs have a small thing I'd change. For the ones that don't start at zero, have an option to switch between starting at zero and starting at the numbers they do now. Also maybe add trend lines so you can tell if they are up or down. End of complaints. Keep up the good work.

Loving INTC where its at, even after the drop only made me want more. Company financials are just way too good and undervalued IMO. INTC still is a growing company though, they have been generating so much FCF and they are putting it back into the business. Operating CF is still up year over year. I do think that they need to put more cash into investing activities and that is what they are now focusing on. Definitely a different shift into the business focus which is a good thing. Difference with (T) is they are way too leveraged and didnt cut the dividend an they are paying for that. INTC is generating so much cash and are not leveraged so it can easily go into building infrastructure and new technologies. The big thing is they gota make those good decisions and do it on time. With the new CEO however that has a good chance to change since he comes from an engineering background compared to the last CEO who was only a sales dude. Respect your opinion I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into the world.

This was an interesting change in format to the show. I think talking about thinks you don't want to own is an good change every now and then.

Next Video: 4 Growth Stocks I Don't Own (BYND?) Please make this a series. I like hearing why you don't like something.

When you put business people in charge of a tech company such as Intel, it's not uncommon to see the company struggle to grow. Hope the new CEO would overturn the situation for Intel like Satya did for Microsoft.

Ok. So a company trading at a 10 PE has flat earnings compared with a company that has a 35 PE with 10% growth, it will take close to 14 years equal earnings price and about 30 years to equal price total total earnings. That if earnings continues at 10% yoy. Price is important. Don’t overpay for growth.

It’s a fascinating thought hw investors pull through this in the investments space When stocks n coin at a time Inflate and deflated without notice, lol for me I would have had a cardiac arrest longtime!!!😂

Don’t worry about upsetting people. You’re doing them a favor by pointing out a weakness in particular companies.

Starbucks deserves a higher multiple because of its brand customer loyalty and fin tech properties which Texas road house does not have

Love the videos Joseph. I do think that you’re comparing apples to oranges with Starbucks and Texas road house. Starbucks has a wide moat as having a drive through is huge in the cofre business. Also Starbucks has loyal daily customers, can’t say the same with Texas road house. Also Starbucks is growing in China an enormous market.

I'm working at IBM and soon at Knydryl, I think you are right about the company. Kyndryl (the new company which will spin off) won't pay dividends and won't buy back shares, maybe it will grow again, we will see. IBM will focus on Redhat, mainframe, maybe the 2nm chip, idk. But they pay dividends for more than 100 years now, that is a prestige thing for them.

I have a completely different take on Intel, but appreciate your view. Love the channel too, keep it up!

Invested in Intel today mainly because of the ceo plus what they have for the next quarters.

Intel is my top holding, haven't bought since April though. Holding till January at least when I rebalance.

I'm invested in intel, I thank you for your intel though. :)

One thing sbux has over txrh is the cult following. One of the main reasons im so bullish on the company. I think this will bring it over the top of other similar companies. (Great video btw, I dont disagree with you at all. Just have a different perspective on emotions)

After seeing this video i decided to buy more intel

Joseph quick question do you hear anything about the this blank check company DWAC, that is trying to replace Twitter, AmazonTV, Facebook, Netflix.... ?

The situation with Intel kind of reminds me of IBM. Good companies that stopped innovating and started bean counting.

Does the Qualtrim website work with ETFs?

Since I already own intel I’m willing to give them a chance, but I do agree with your points.

Joseph, valuation comes down to your expected return and estimates. I know you were making a bear case for Intel, however, even a declining company can offer value. Before Apple exploded, people said the same thing: "It's a dying company, growth can't continue". But as Apple bought back their undervalued shares, their net income and cashflow per share grew. They also kept delivering higher revenue and profits. Even if Intel won't be like Apple they still give their share holders value in the form of greater cashflow, buybacks and dividend. If a proper discount rate is used and conservative estimates (IE declining revenue, profit and cashflow), you can still make a decent return. I know, it's not a buy for you, just as Apple isn't a buy for me (I would love to own Apple, I'm just not willing to overpay, and I'm fine missing out if I'm wrong). The beauty of investing is the difference in opinions, estimates and valuations. Great content as usual.

Just recently started investing in INTC

When people take stock critiques personally, you can just about guarantee that they purchased on emotion.

As someone (major AMD shareholder) who listens in on both AMD and Intel every quarter since 2016, frankly Intel has been trash. It's not just their performance, but also their attitude. They were highly complacent and dismissive of their competitions. However, this year, I started taking a small position in Intel after hearing on a podcast its new CEO's humbling approach towards their competition and his hopes on bringing Intel back to the forefront of innovation. That was quite a departure from their traditional attitude of past years. I also believe that there's bipartisan support to bring the leadership in chip manufacturing back to the US. Partly due to the threat of China on Taiwan, partly because I believe we have already / are entering into the age of microprocessors. Chips will be in everything and everywhere, like during the plastic revolution 60+ years ago. I agree that Intel is not cheap. I think it's fair value, but only considering the reasons I've mentioned. Intel will continue to be a garbage performer for the next couple of years, but I see potential after that. That's what I'm betting on.

I have been holding intel since 2016, i enjoy the dividend though.

A company doesn’t need to grow to be worth something. It can remain the same size and be a great investment. I have intel growing free cash flow at 2% over the next 5 years and using a discount rate of 15% I get to $50/share.

You have to respect the straight forward content. But if I may add my $0.02, this is precisely why I only own VTI.

Great way to start the weekend 😁

I think you're wrong on Intel (INTC) and this are my bullish points on Intel: 1. New CEO: Pat Gelsinger (Engineer) 2. They have a spectacular guy (Raja Koduri) building their new graphics (Intel Arc), that will release next year. 3. Intel and AMD will push towards integrating more their graphics cards with their own CPU's, where you will get a boost if you have both from same company (AMD is already doing this). 4. America want's more independence on chip making, so more goverment money to Intel to build their factories inland and to don't stay behind technology wise (which they are compared to TSMC). 5. Intel stock is at a wonderful price. 6. Pays Dividend I'm no Intel fan, but I have been buying Intel stock for the reasons I've posted above. Thanks for the video, I always like to listen to both sides so I can measure the pro's and con's.

I made a video about buying more intel today so I'll have to strongly disagree with you on this one. The reasons you stated for liking Intel being the CEO and not focusing on share buybacks but focusing on R&D and the new chip making foundries is why I'm very bullish on them. Their upcoming products are also expected to be quite competitive. I think this is a case of sentiment being so bearish it's kind of silly. I respect your reasons for not investing in it being a turnaround play but is it really? They only led the industry for decades will they truly just die and never make a competitive product ever again? I don't think so. They also have Amazon and Qualcomm lined up as clients to make chips for them lot's of good things ahead for intel IMO.

The cash of Intel differs from the number on Yahoo Finance (under "statistics"), why? Why should I trust your number instead of Yahoos? Kind regards, a probable patron in the near future. Edit: 3 minutes in to the video you see under "Balance" that the cash is 2.3B, later you mention 7B I think. Yahoo has 34.5B.

I really like the truthful videos and that you stick to your opinions. Thats why I watch this channel, and although I am not invested in these stocks either (heck IBM is a dinosaur), I would be careful using double sword here. You show Intel revenue growth and its basically flat, with minimal jump from 5 years ago. And criticize it. Then you show Starbucks with exact same minimal jump over 5 years (minus the volatility) and say its growing consistently at good growth. Same with debt. Starbucks has 4x the debt that they have in cash, where Intel has same ratio, yet Intel is banished for it and Starbucks barely blinked over the cash ration. Well no, they are both stuck and they should be perceived that way. There is a lot of bias in every personal opinion, and I know its hard to detach yourself from it, but it can be caught in the script for the video in advance. I love the platform by the way! Great job on that side! Totally worth it.

Please don't ever change your style. Your content is S tier

T is one of the most poorly run large cap companies out there. Glad I sold out at a $13 profit including dividends before it tanked.

your comment on intc debt is off, their fcf is $10-15b per year less than 30 is not bad at all.

I invested in intel while agreeing with everything you said, the road ahead is very hazy but I can see a path towards higher revenue and more profitability

Yo, IBM is getting hit honestly I wasn’t surprised

He bought SBUX btw.

Interesting how you say you don’t want to invest into turn around stories but use Peter Lynch as a mentor when he clearly says that by the time an investment is safe, the cost is already priced in. The market in the short term is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine. Discounted Free Cash Flow doesn’t lie

United states based chip company is a must because of the lesson learned from chip shortage from chip makers overseas. Once the government starts throwing money at them to help chip infrastructure

Nice video. I wonder though is having debt a bad thing in an inflationary environment? If the interest rate on the debt is fixed, then the debt gets inflated away over the next 10 years.

Great point about the share buybacks. It has always occurred to me that buybacks (and dividends) are a self-evident admission that management doesn’t have any better ideas for allocating that capital and providing additional return on investment. I don’t think it always necessarily indicates management is trying to be sneaky because it’s kind of obvious what they’re doing. But it is evidence of an extreme risk aversion and if they’re so risk averse you gotta ask, well, they don’t sound like they’re extremely optimistic about their own company’s future. I like to see management who are determined to deliver more value, who want to prove to investors that a dollar put in their hands is going to go farther than a dollar in anyone else’s hand. I don’t really think some companies have “earned the right” to use buybacks more than others though I can see how it could be used sparingly to smooth out earnings and meet Wall Street projections if they had one oddball quarter.

While Intel has a lot of debt, I personally don't think it's that much of a problem. Their avg FCF over the past 5 years is 15b a year. Their total liabilities are 44b. They can pay off ALL of their liabilities from their FCF in less than three years. Referencing FCF can help put debt into perspective. It's often hard to find companies that can pay all liabilities in 5 years.

You talk about not buying IBM, but in the past you’ve talked about buying SCHD where IBM is its 11th largest holding at like 3.7% Have you sold this position? I’m curious because a lot of my portfolio is in ETFs like VYM that hold a lot of these companies

Intel has 9.5% earnings yield. They are GROWING even if slightly, that's my margin of safety. I don't mind 9.5 base return at all with potential of growth from tailwind of the high growth in semi sector.

Which broker are you using?

what insights page is that? please help

yeah apple designs their own chips but they don't manufacture them. if i recall correctly taiwan semiconductor does the manufacturing for apple

I don't think Intel is 'deep value', but it sure seems like a great buy in such a overpriced market, especially below 50$.

I own Intel but I love your show and truly value your opinion 🥳

I don't invest in individual stocks, but the way I see a valuation like Intel is it's like holding a bond (use entire retained earnings not div yield) where 1/11 pe = ~9% yield. Stocks should obviously have differing "yields" from bonds due to the uncertainty and skewness of future earnings. IF say Intel does not have its earnings fall you as the share holder are earning this 9% through dividends, share repurchases, and/or increase in book value if these earnings sit as cash on the balance sheet. IMO on average all companies are properly valued to net the same return (the number is not 9%, but many people in the field say this is about 6% after inflation), but it's very difficult to predict exactly which ones stray away from the mean and in what direction.

I mostly agree here. INTC with a new CEO looks interesting though.

I started with dividend investing roughly 10 years ago. I learned my lesson: Dividend investing is way more dangerous than people think. The way many youtubers advertise dividend investing as a great way to make passive income, without pointing out the risks like you do in this video, is very misleading to beginners. Im glad i switched my focus to growth investing after a few years. Some "dividend channels" were rooting for the likes of Helmerich & Payne, Tanger Factory Outlet, Meredith, IBM at the beginning of last year. Imagining myself holding these flops when the Covid crash happened still gives goosebumps. BTW, i shouldve bought Starbucks last april, but the debt was indeed my argument against it.

* INTC- I totally agree with you. I do not get the chip market that Intel is in, but several of my co-workers are constantly obsessing over the latest chip news, and they all hate Intel with a passion, hence there's no way I'm buying Intel no matter how cheap it gets. * SBUX - I agree it's not a good value today, that's the main reason it's not in my portfolio. That said you are paying for a certain degree of perceived "safety" with Starbucks and their strong brand, they're a more established and proven business then smaller companies like Texas Roadhouse. * IBM - I'm one of the idiots who bought IBM after they got their new CEO thinking they could turn things around. I got out of them around a half a year ago or so at a 15% loss. I've learned to be much more wary of turnaround and value plays since. * CNK - I wouldn't invest in this one either. And I don't think they'll ever recover to their all their highs in revenue, streaming and direct to streaming service movies are just going to bring too much competition for that.

Joseph, thank you for insights! What is your opinion on activision blizzard?

I got myself some load of Intel shares,mas per one rule - buy on bad news, sell on good. The opposit to what Joseph is doing with Apple and MSFT. And no, I can take truth, so I do enjoy watching your channel my friend. 😉

Very valuable insights in this video. Not many analyst talk about why NOT buy a company. Thank you! I am learning a lot from your content.

What happened to the Story Fund????

Excellent video

Interesting choices and discussions. The only one I disagree with would be starbucks. However you do, as always, have very good points.

I disagree with your opinion on Intel and IBM, which I hold large positions in and I think they have great potential. Intel is the biggest player in the semi conductor market and they hold the largest market share in Asia when look at Intel, TSMC and AMD only (ignoring all the other market participants). They have the advantage of having production sites geographically spread and being US based which will give them an advantage if/when US government becomes more protectionistic and if China moves in on Taiwan. In my view they are doing they right thing by investing in new plants. The issues about product development delays are over rated. It is not always the technologically best product that wins the market, it will be the product at the appropriate quality and price that wins. Regarding share buy backs I disagree on this being bad capital management. Buying back shares increases their ability to increase their dividend per share and is a flexible way to send money towards the shareholders untill business opportunities arise. I like this better than companies just accumulating cash on their balance sheet. On IBM, I understand your point about business being flat over many years, however I think the new management's move towards hybrid cloud and divesting the Kyndryl business (management of IT environments for customers) is the right move. If you look at their Q3 numbers you will see that their future business (software and business services) was growing 2 % and 11 %, while the Kyndryl business was negative 5% and dragging them down. In my view IBM is going towards more SaaS based model and becoming more of a software company instead of a behemoth within managed IT infrastructure (Kyndryl). The divested Kyndryl business will be a bad investment and I will be selling this stock as soon as it starts trading. I respect your different opinions on the stocks and that you prefer other businesses. Great content as always

How about KO and PEP? Thanks for the great content!

Everybody becomes an "expert"when a stock drops down...LMAO.

talk about ASML. They have a unique machine in semiconductors

The trading market is constantly evolving with new features, trading opportunities, financial swings with sudden surprises around every corner. The best thing is to stay in shape and don’t let anything catch you on the wrong foot.

I love the eyes wide open approach to investing! I always question my own bias.

Intel messed up big with their architecture. They missed the ARM chip and now AMD and Mac are about 5 years ahead of Intel. They are very far behind.

I'd like to point out a couple of mistakes in the Intel research. No emotions or hard feelings, only facts. The revenue growth he showed is misleading to say the least. Year over year revenue actually grew from $62.7 billion in 2016 to $77.8 billion in 2021 and profit doubled during 2020 from $3.36 billion in Q1 to $6.82 billion in Q3. Also that Morningstar report is from January when the share price was $56. Now that it's at $49 you actually get a discount of 25%, not 14%

Hey Joseph, can you explain why Not Amazon?

Do you own CRM, workday,Adobe?

Stock suggestions for a similar video on your growth portfolio: AMD (or NVIDIA, TSMC) Tesla I think you've talked about Tesla multiple times (your opinion would still be interesting seeing their business has evolved rapidly), but haven't talked much about AMD or similar companies. My guess would be that you're not investing into a market you're not confident in understanding the business of? If so, that's understandable, but maybe there is more to this and I'd love to hear it! Video is awesome by the way. You're risking channel sentiment for authenticity, truthfullness and furthering discussion. Your channel has been one of a shrinking amount of financial channels on RU-vid which I've been following. Maybe one day people will look back on this day and remember the humble beginnings of one legendary investor Joseph Carlson. :D Keep it humble. Keep up the great work!

I'm long on Intel. Their earnings weren't bad. They are losing market share but, the demand for semiconductors is growing overall. Intel's new facilities should be beneficial. Apple was 2% of semi revenue for Intel not a huge loss. Intel could also make their chips for them at their facilities when they open up production for their competitors.

I own Intel, but appreciate your analysis. I will still continue to own it.

I have T stock and completely agree. It's struggling I personally have been thinking about getting rid of it

Back in 2015 I wanted to add a semiconductor company and was choosing between TSMC and INTC. I ended up choosing TSMC and I can say I've never been happier with a coin flip choice that I made. Even if it half came down to just my gut, I'll take being lucky in that instance.

We now leave in a world where can safely unplug IBM and nobody would notice! Crazy for such a household name!

No hard feelings here. I think you're doing people a favor by giving us the facts regardless of your opinion so thankyou.

Companies should buy there shares when theire prices are cheap. Intel are. Microsoft arent. I disagree with youre analysis.

INTC is a very long play. It needs years to sort out it's issues and see results. It may never happen. Overall it's only 3% of my port. I think you're critiques are on point but I think the company has a moat in a massively important and growing industry and will right the ship.

Intel to someone wanting a growth stock "appears" like a bad stock to them. But they clearly haven't done any analytic metric formulas. Had they..... they'd see this stock has major upside that is higher than the s&p historical average of 10% growth year to year. To a dividend income portfolio investor, Intel is a fabulous stock right now.

Joseph, could you please mention Snap stock situation in your next video ..thank you!!

Haven't you just said in the previous video that when everything is clear it's already too late? You're just now contradicting yourself saying that you want clarify about Intel before investing into it.

What do you think of Boeing? The stock price seems to be struggling since the 737 Max and the pandemic hurt them even worse. Some analysts predict that business travel will never be the same. On the other hand, Boeing is the only US commercial airplanes manufacturer. And this has historically been an industry that the US governments likes to protect and even nurture for national security reasons. Hope you have the time to let us know your thoughts. Thank you. Great content!

The Intel situation simply boils down to whether or not they can compete with TSMC from what I can see. Intel has lacked ambition and execution for a long time, losing out massively. However with the current demand spike for chips, a trend towards on-shoring and supply chain diversification, Intel seem to have gained the confidence to become more ambitious, with plans for massive new fabs on the works. The question is can they execute.

Have you done any research on Tyler technologies

I own 1 of the 4 stocks you mentioned. I agree with you on IBM and don't know enough about SBUX to have an opinion. I disagree with you on Intel (I do not own any). I don't think you can compare a manufacturing/HW business to a SW business. Not a good comparison. I do own T and I believe we'll see good things after the breakup next year so I'm holding my shares and DRIPing for now. A 4% dividend is not bad at all for income. I do appreciate your POV though! No hard feelings here! We can't all agree on everything all the time but should be able to disagree respectfully.

nice one . IBM was one company I avoided. I still hold Intel.

Hey Joseph, how do you feel about the new Bitcoin ETF(BITO)?

What about IBM’s spin off company? Think it is worth it?

So right about Intel. Never touched chip stocks. These companies are price takers. If the average consumer was willing to pay a premium for a device with Intel chips, I’d consider. But not happening.

15 billion to 19 billion per quarter is still a decent 27% increase in revenue for intc in 4 years without much capex spending. I'm optimistic that this will will improve in the next 5 years and at the current prices, it is a low risk play.

IBM was a good swing trade for me. get in at 106 get out at 140....just wait 4 - 6 months. I like discount stocks. use the extra cash i made in IBM to invest in ADBE :)

as a intel shareholder i like your points but i think once thier new facility start production, new ceo and current market chip shortage amd, NVDA, intel and TSMC will all be needed to fulfill demend

AMZN doesn’t really do buybacks. None since 2012

Great video! I’m curious on you’re thoughts on Intel vs. AMD if you have any

Watched and liked, thanks Joseph!

12:40 Dividend growth chart should be split adjusted always so it doesn't confuse

I’m more bullish on Intel than you, but agree they have stagnated somewhat. I don’t see their consumer segment growing exponentially but their hardware still underpins the vast majority of enterprise clients, not to mention AWS, Azure, Google Cloud all have direct relationships with Intel which continue to have huge growth opportunities in the future. In addition, I think there’s still room for big upsides in sales growth as long as they can remain a mainstay in enterprise digitalization, AI, machine learning etc, and their p/e and current price, especially after yesterdays drop, is too attractive to ignore imo. I only have 5% of my portfolio in intel and wouldn’t go much beyond that personally, but I still think they’re positioned well as a value stock on yesterdays price. The others on this list I 100% agree with