This is *Very**Very* good. This is definitely going into the toolkit of things I want new ‘accidental’ project leads to understand when I start working with them. And personally, as a reminder it works brilliantly. Thank you
your content is amazing the amount of detail your place in the description is just incredible I really praise your effort and wishing you all the best for your incredible dedication and hard work
Great videos though i will contest some of the contents of this video. Here is my opinion: 1. Known known is also I know what I know - So in this context, if I know that all the sides of the dice are 6, the outcome is six- Basically it talks about certain things 2. Known unknown is the scenario where you know that one of the outcome is 6 when you toss a dice but your are uncertain. It is basically the contingency (if you are going to do an outdoor picnic in summer, you know that it could rain but not sure when). 3.Unknown unknown is the management reserve- you are expecting numbers between 1 and 6 but you don't know that the dice has 7 in all sides. 4. unknown known is the bummer- that is like forgetting the fact that the odds for getting a 6 is 1/6
I think you have misunderstood. Known knowns in this case are still uncertain. We know a die has 6 sides so we know the chances are 1 in 6. There is still a (known) element of uncertainty. Known unknowns are things we know we don't know. We know that there will be changes in the exchange rate on goods we need for our project, and we know we don't know what they will be and when they will happen. Have another listen and remember: all four boxes are about uncertainty! Your definition #1 is about certainty.
@@Onlinepmcourses OK, if that is the case from a project management angle, what is contingency. My position is that only known unknowns are contingency, and unknown unknown is management reserve. You cant make contingency for known known in my humble opinion
@@tvpuram You can set a contingency against any form of risk. I would define the difference as being where they are held, and who has control. Contingency applies to budget elements held in the project against contingencies (events) that are not part of the plan. Usually, we allocate different levels of contingency against parts of the plan that have different risk profiles. Management reserve is held at the enterprise or project owner level and can be used (at the discretion of someone above the PM) to deal with events that exceed contingencies available. I'd agree that often Management Reserve is, by default, used to address Unknown Unknowns, but I think the articles on the web that suggest it must be are overly didactic on this point. However, it's not wise to take a fixed view of definitions. They need to be crafted to fit the culture. If you use the definitions you have set out in your organization - and so does everyone else - then no one can say it is wrong. But I don't think it is helpful to relate these two terms to the Known/Unknow classification. They address somewhat different matters.
Known known: It refers to information or knowledge that is already known and understood with a high level of certainty and confidence. Stochastic uncertainty: It refers to uncertainty arising from the inherent randomness or variability of stochastic processes, where the outcomes are characterized by probabilities or likelihoods rather than being fully known or deterministic. These terms come from different perspectives and are used in different contexts. "Known known" is more related to the realm of knowledge and information, while stochastic uncertainty is associated with probabilistic or random processes.
I am using known-known here to describe a risk we know about - that is, the stochastic uncertainty you describe. We know all about the weather - except it is still uncertain.
Here's an example from a project I did. When we planned the project, we knew that, over the summer of 2001, we would be receiving feedback from statutory consultees. The project was for a public sector organization and there were a number of stakeholders with who we had to consul and whose comments we had to consider and respond to. Some were, politically, critical to us. But we didn't know if we could win their support with the design we had - we believed we could but there was a known risk: maybe they would object and give us a problem to resolve. That was a known-unknown. By autumn, we had our answer and it was a known known. In our example, they supported the project and there was no residual risk.
Risks - things that could happen. Probability is anything from zero to just less than 1. Uncertain. Issues - things that will happen or are already happening. Probability = 1. Certain. It's that simple. For more on issues: What is Issue Management? ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-yMTVdal6ANc.html And a full, detailed article on issue management: onlinepmcourses.com/issue-management-pmboks-missing-process/
