I’d be interested to know how many of these bottom 5 offenses over 10 years were projected to be bottom 5 before the season started. Very interesting video!
This is also taking into account that the win totals are perfect. WRs on projected bottom 5 teams per vegas sportsbooks last year. Puka Nacua Nico Collins Tank Dell Michael Pittman Mike Evans Not taking someone with some upside in the 14th round because vegas has there team bad is pretty dumb. If you can garuntee the team being bad sure but thats simply not the case. This is a solid strategy in the first two rounds to not tank your season but these examples you give are historically bad advice.
Love the vids but issue with the analysis here - these are “projections” vs rankings. Last year, the colts, cardinals, bucs, Texans, rams, titans were “projected” to be bottom 10 offenses. None of these teams offenses finished near their projection (baring titans). You would’ve missed on a ton of talent by assuming these teams would be bottom offenses at the start of 2023.
The bucs were the 10th worst offense in terms of total yards, and as he says in the video and anytime he’s talking about a player on a bad offense…”if you think x team has a chance to be a middle of the road offense then definitely take player y” while ur right that 3-4 teams that were supposed to be bad were average or better those players associated with those teams way overproduced their adp which is what ur looking for every year
Well majority of the time projections are going to be accurate obv there’s going to be outliers every year. Statistically it would make more sense to bet on the top projections compared to hope.
Agree with the sentiment behind this comment, would like to know where you found these being the bottom 5 offenses in projections last year. (This is why I said if you were to be drafting Nabers you are betting on the giants to exceed expectations)
I would have appreciated if you showed how predictable it is to be a bottom 5 offense. If 1/5 of the projected bottom 5 offenses actually are bottom 5 offenses, how nullified is the data?
How predictable? We'll go to Vegas and look athr casinos and ask yourself if the casinos are good at making money? I'd say predictable enough to not post this comment. Or appreciate yourself and do the research
If you extended this to bottom 10-15 offenses I think I’d have much more confidence in it. My gut says not much would change. It’s still hard to produce in a bad offense. But like you said it’s hard to predict exactly who the bottom 5 offenses are.
Mason, I love this data comparing how low end offenses affect fantasy production. One thing that I think is important is knowing the regular rate of a teams WR1 hitting top 32, 24 ,12 and 9 so that we can compare how much worse the bottom 5 is than average WR1 performance. Because obviously people to an extent are already fading WR on a bad offense but if we can compare to the average it might tell us better if we should be fading them even hard than the market already is (which I suspect given this data is the case or if people are already properly fading expected bad offenses). For example, if these WRs are already being ranked in the 40s the downside is somewhat baked in. Another thing I do like is the discussion of what players are much worse in a classic 'friend league' like you said, 10 team, 2 rb 2 wr 1 flex where you really need those home run players to stand out where as even if you draft a wr as the wr 38 and they finish as wr 24 it's still not really helping your team win in that kind of format
Daniel jones has never had a WR1 , I’m taking Malik nabers all day long in the fifth round , no target competition, OL got better , Daniel jones should really improve this year. ( People forget that he was really solid in 2022)
Nabers in round 5 I could get behind, 2/3 turn is a bit more brutal. Weirdly I'm completely out on Nabers this year but I love Jones (in Bestball or SF where being the QB 20ish actually matters).
Oh he got competition alright.. Hyatt, Hodges, in a run first offense. Nabers will need to create big plays on his opportunities but Daniel jones ain’t throwing 25+tds most likely
@@asmith7274 I believe it's based on last year and the fact there's uncertainty what Brian Callahan will do. Personally, don't understand it. Last season OL was the issue. This off-season they drafted OL in the first and added a top 10 interior lineman from 2023 in FA. They added two NFL WRs with Ridley and Boyd (who is familiar with Callahan offense already) now next to Hopkins. Brian Callahan being a rookie coach and bringing a new offense may be why people hesitate, but the off-season they e had is a recipe for a surprise season
Mason just glossing over how difficult it is to predict the worst 5 offenses in the NFL. This is equivalent to saying "If you can see the future and know the top 5 offenses for 2024 then just draft players on those teams" Yeah, no sh#t
Do you think that you could use this data and this trend to identify trades that can be done at different players' ceilings/floors? I picture this, identify: (A) players that will boom, inflating their trade value (B) players that will bust in some given period of time, deflating their trade value, but then boom later Then, trade player A for player B plus another player X and reap the excess value Just quickly looking over the data, I think one way of identifying this kind of situation would be looking for stretches where the team's ITT is less than their average ITT for multiple weeks. So the Falcons in Weeks 1-3 for example, and the Bills in Weeks 3-5. On the opposite end, the Lions are projected to have great weeks 1-4, with ITT > avg ITT, but then a relative rough patch. Edit: I guess what I'm asking is what is the correlation between the PPG and ITT in a given week.
😅Should have looked at it like, which WR in a bottom 5 offense THE YEAR BEFORE could be a value due to off-season changes? And see if there is data for any bottom 5 receivers that massively exceeded ADP, cuz that is what is interesting. Picking busts is easy, but finding true overachiever wins you leagues
If you're ever starved for content, can you do a video on the success of guys in generally bad offenses? Like maybe offenses ranked 18-27? Or just offenses that were ranked below average (17+)? Curious how it compares to these results, and how much it really matters if an offense managed to improve slightly after last years bad offensive season. I feel like even if one of these teams gets out of the top 5, it's still not going to be a favorable situation for these guys
I think the Titans and Patriots are going to exceed expectation this year, so I feel comfortable drafting some Hopkins, Polk, Douglas, Levis, Okonkwo, and Maye. Outside of them I don’t think anyone else has good value or much potential.
In redrafts Sutton is going 8-9th… I just missed on him, he would be a great flex, but underdog has 3WRs if I’m not mistaken so WRs are gonna go a lot sooner
I could tell when Mason started playing fantasy football when he talks about NFL players or stats before 2015-2016. "Somehow Mike Evans had a top 10 finish his rookie year". The somehow was Jameis Winston throwing 50 yards bombs, not only to his team, but others as well.
Half PPR 1 Keeper... Should I keep CeeDee Lamb or Bijan Robinson? I know CeeDee is the pick 9 out of 10 times, but the contract holdout scares me a bit, also with him being a bit notorious for starting slow
So basically if a projected bad offense has a player that falls in adp a couple spots not a bad pick being they are already on a discount built into their adp, however going bully rb and te at the top and trying to fill my roster with these guys is not a good idea.
Do propects like nabers ever make qbs like danny dimes look respectable instead of dumpster fores? Thus out performing offensive projections? What are your top 5 teams likely to out perform protections?
FLOCK UP!! Yo Can you make a video for Super flex leagues my brotha?? Obviously the heavy influence of QBs cuz u can start 2. Would love to see how u draft it
When it comes down to it, it's all a guess and some luck. Of course, we try to narrow down that guess (why we're here), but you never know. Just look at the projections last year. At the beginning of the 2023 season, the Texans' offense was ranked dead last by all the experts, and they ended up going to the playoffs with Nico and Tank heading way up the draft board. The 2nd worst offense was Tampa Bay. They ended up in the playoffs as well, and we all know how Mike Evans did.
How do predict who is going to be bottom 5 offense since you do not know before you draft? If you go off projection (like you have to) the data says differently. Like the Rams were suppose to be a bottom 5 offense last year, but they had more than 1 player in a top finish for example. I don’t see how this data being presented tells you anything right now while you are trying to draft.
Mason @flock PLEASE (lmk if it’s in the video I haven’t finished) PLEASE compare the projections from last year to the actual rankings last year just want to know
@@Flockfantasyallright, yeah i heard that. Was a bit too fast with commenting 😂 i'm sorry. But i really liked the video and wish you all the best. Greetings from Switzerland
I'm smashing all the overs and the draft button on Pop Douglas. One of the most, if not the most underrated receiver in the league. Plus, I think Drake Maye is really good at football.
@@livelikelarry0017 I like Polk too. High floor player. I just like Pop as a pure, consistent separator. A rookies best friend. Plus he's got some YAC to him.
@@FantasySportsZen If Maye doesn't play that would be a travesty. Maybe the first couple weeks? But Maye is the best QB in that room and should easily be the starter if the Pats get past the stigma imo. Once Maye starts, I think there's a boost to the offense and definitely a boost to Pop that the market is sleeping on.
I don’t get the Dionte love personally. I did in Pittsburgh to a degree but he’s going to a bad offense and has historically struggled in the redzone for tds where old man Thielan has excelled
Maybe Nabers won't quite live up to his ADP, but 'no hope' is such a clickbait take. Also, total finish isn't the whole story, rice was WR 27 last year but was a league winner. Rookies have that ascending style so they're popping off when you really need it. What we have here is a truly elite prospect falling into an offense that will be centered around him, with a below average QB. He could be a back-end WR1, a WR3 or something in between, only time will tell how it shakes out. Where he's being drafted, it's just a matter of if you want to swing for the fences with the unknown, or go with something a little more proven
The Titans offense is underrated. I think there's too much emphasis on last season. I like Tennessee to be a good second half of the season offense. DeAndre Hopkins didn't have a bad year last year. His production last year would easily justify his draft capital this year
@@painfx5853 I'm not saying go hard, just saying don't sleep. They've drafted 2 first round OL, added another top 10 OL from 2023 in free agency, added two actual WRs next to Hopkins in Boyd and Ridley, and they hired an offensive minded coach in Brian Callahan. That's a recipe for a surprise offense
I have 4% johnson and 4% nabers. I think there is a good chance the titans dont end up being bottom 5 and that Washington doesnt end up being bottom 7 but the rest of those teams i feel like have very little hope for being any good at all
I posted as well that Nabers is an elite level athlete in a horrible position and should not be going at his current ADP on Underdog. I have gotten a couple of comments that stated "I want to be in your leagues, no way I'd lose to you". People are defending his ADP aggressively lol
if you don't know what we're doing here we're drafting on Underdog fantasy I draft here every single day I've drafted here every single day for years they're best ball drafts so there's no commitment at all during the season that's how I draft hundreds of teams every offseason it's how I won $150,000 on underdog two years ago🗣 🗣 🗣 🗣
I think comparing Brian Dabolls philosophy to that of the titans last year is extremely extremely lazy lol. Daboll was comfortable throwing 45-50 times with Daniel jones healthy year 1 and while you might not like it they were effective and that’s with no one even close to nabers level of talent
Did you watch DJ playoff performance on the road? Dude put up multiple records. First player to throw 300yds + 100yds rushing in a playoff game. Was throwing to practice squad receivers while Kirk was throwing to Jefferson and hock. He will be elite with some talent around him.
If Garrett Wilson was able to put up 1100 yards receiving as a rookie with Zach Wilson as his QB, then Malik Nabers will most definitely put up over 1000 yards receiving with Daniel Jones as his QB.
The Las Vegas shit is so played out when you had teams like Texans, Packers and Rams prove that wrong not to mention the Jags and Bears flopping so hard when your beloved Las Vegas got 7 teams wrong 😂
