I was big on JT and still have him ranked as my RB4 but a lot has to go right for him to hit. He’s not a pass catcher and has missed 7 + games in back to back seasons. I also believe the colts O line is overrated which he can overcome but a lot has to go his way
L take, underdog is not full PPR so RBs who break off long runs and get TDs are favored. The offense is on an upward trajectory with a great upcoming Shane Steichen. “HeAllLLTttHhh” if you’re predicting health you faded CMC last year and how did that turn out
7:00 on Swift and Hurts goal line stats.. I think TushPush skews those stats quite a bit. I don’t know for certain.. But could easily guess that half Hurts TDs came on TushPush. If Chicago doesn't run that down there.. Or is worse at it.. Swift might benefit.
Love the videos keep crushing it. Please also count this as a Vote from someone who just got into Best Ball/Underdog who doesn’t want to see it turn into DFS with loads of Autodraft Bots/Applications and everyone using a handful of a couple Rankings. I don’t really care from a competitive perspective, I just think the pure drafting format it has been is awesome and that will 100% ruin some of the enjoyment of it.
One year ago we were excited to draft J.K. Dobbins over Gus Edwards in Baltimore. Fast forward one year and everyone's drafting Gus over Dobbins. I know injuries play a role in that ADP, but damn I want to get more Dobbins.
I’ve been drafting a lot of Achane and Moestart. I trust the dolphins offense to get them red zone success. I have one league where I got both of them because I didn’t like the other players. Also, they always seem to be available .
Because neither can be trusted to play the whole season, and both can be trusted to poach tds from each other. That's why people are staying away from both. Plus neither was able to put up consistent play, if the games were not blowouts. There were weeks when they would only get you 4-7 points in a half ppr league, that's bad.
Jon Taylor does have a week 14 bye which has me avoiding him a bit more otherwise i love his value at the turn he should be ahead of Bijan and Gibbs for sure we know hes a top 5 RB talent wise
Don't agree on the Swift mix with these guys. Being compared to eagles and bears. huge difference. Yeah, ofc he wasnt getting as much TDs on PHI bc of their other RB...Jalen Hurts. He wont have that same problem with the bears. The other 2 RB wont be a huge issues once they find out what works. Yeah, switch out RB1 with RB2/RB3 on certain downs but Swift is FAR SUPRIOR then Herbert and RJ. He will still be a big part of the offence bc THEY HAVE THE OTHER ELEMENTS for him to be successful. Plus they will protect CW from taking unnecessary risk for runs and TDs I believe.
My zero or very low dudes: Adam Theilen, Tyler Lockett, Tony Pollard, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy, Allen Lazard, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Antonio Gibson, Kalil Shakir, Quentin Johnston.
I like Mike Williams. Rodgers likes bigger receivers especially on those back shoulder and fades. Red zone target, defenses are afraid of Wilson deep unlike Allen. Jacobi Meyers is going to loose work to Bowers and Tucker. The Raiders are a run first team that’s loaded at receiver.
Justin Jefferson. I am not a JJ McCarthy fan. At all. I think he will be a decent real life qb, but will struggle in fantasy. I do not see Jefferson being a top 5 receiver this year, and at his price point, I'd rather have breece/bijan/AJ Brown
I love the constant evolution of fantasy football verbiage. It used to be a guys “stock” was high or low, then you had shares, then exposure, now it’s overweight / underweight 😂
@@man-zm3lj that has to do with offensive scheme, he didn’t eat due to poor touchdowns and low receiving volume with the eagles system where as the bears have already come out and said they want to use him as a weapon out of the backfield and with the rookie Qb we could see some 8-12 target games out of swift again like when he was in Detroit
@@man-zm3lj my brother in Christ , do you ever listen to the coaches, or follow the money ? You don’t go out and pay a RB to start the free agency period meaning they got specifically they’re guy and have come out and said they see him as a weapon running a advanced route tree
There is no world In selecting a Jets player with a top 12 pick. Their QB is old and hasn’t played in 3 years. The online is older than a president and Nathiel Hackett is calling plays. I have drafted 60 BBMV teams so far and no Jets player on any team
I watched them alot last year and I gotta say they were wrong quite a bit. They were super high on miles sanders, dameon pierce, Carolinas offense, etc...
@@BakedJake27 are you referring to 0.5 tickets of picks. Regardless either you’re right or wrong. That’s it. Either you win or you lose. I only hit about 20-25% of my tickets. Although I only do correlated slips and hit for 10x and 25x tickets so I am still highly profitable. I have been hitting at nearly 70% in the past 10 months. Correlation is a cheat code. I have been preaching it since I have had ridiculous success. NFL was easy money. MLB is a little more difficult but not much. In fact I have been hitting over 75% the past few weeks. The only tickets I have missed I was 3/4 or 5/6. Also you can strategically use these demons against PP. I will take the lead off hitter of an elite offense to get over 0.5 run. Then #2 hitter I will either take over 1.5 HRR or if he has a strong history against the pitcher I will do the 2.5 HRR. Then the #3 hitter I will take over 0.5 RBI. With the 4the pick and to count as the player from the other team you can use a free square, a taco or you can take the over on the opposing teams pitcher. Either hits allowed, Earned Runs, under fantasy score, or under outs. I can’t count how many times I have hit these tickets in the 1st inning. Then on flex Fridays I just combine 2 teams and do the same thing. I had an 83x ticket miss by 0.5 runs. I still hit for 4.5x since I hit 5/6 with 4 demons. I hit for 38x a couple Fridays ago.
Exactly right. Passing up on JT at that point of the draft makes no sense. You usually need 2 RB's anyway, how many more points is a WR2 going to give you than RB1, especially when you figure on how many points you will probably lose from a lower end Rb later on? The bottom line is that you should draft the players that will give you the most points during the season while filling out your roster. Also, WR's are usually easier to find than a quality RB. If you lose a second round WR, it is still easier to replace that player compared to a RB1 that's taken in the second round. On top of that, WR's are generally more reliant on QB's than RB's are. Drafting WR's first makes the most sense in FPPR leagues but passing up on a RB1 to get a WR2 doesn't make sense.
He's legit my favorite pick in round 2, but hayden made great points. Right now in Best Ball, the drop off between at receiver that round to the next compared to RB's is steeper.
I'd say just do not take a RB 1 that either A. Splits workload (Devon Achane or Jahymr Gibbs) or B. Has a rushing QB that will take goal line TDs (Johnathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley). The floors on these guys are just way lower than guys like Kyren Williams, or Joe mixon or Isaiah Pacheco who command the bulk of the workload and will get the guaranteed goal line touches. (I understand the argument of Blake Corum taking goal line carries from Kyren but I dont think thats gonna happen.)
I've probably said in 90% of my drafts 'If Kincaid is still there my next pick I'm drafting him'.....then he's gone. It's a little pricey but hoping to get him more.
Week 1 return isn't ruled out apparently Ik it was the scariest injury but Chubb is legitimately built different. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 1000 yards this year
You can get Chubb as a RB 4 or RB 5. You don’t need that guy to be amazing early season. If Browns bring him back slowly he could be back to bellcow role by week 10 and ready to smash in the fantasy playoffs!
@@theohiooutdoors2444 Agreed. Chubb is a freak of freaks and apparently he's progressing super well. The fact he could play Week 1 is a great sign. I'm not saying reach for the guy, but to write him off may be risky
Zero Kelce… 2023 week 15 - 7.8, pts week 16 - 9.8 pts, WEEK 17 *4.6* pts (DK) just a complete bust in the playoffs last year, high probability of that happening again this year. No thanks, love u man but too much opportunity cost, way too much for a part-timer, especially during the money weeks. I wouldn't draft him in the 6th lol
I would take him as my #1 TE. Grab him and let the extra targets work for you. I have cook and Kincaid and I'm pinching myself. Hoping for 5 targets and 50 more yards a game between the two. Why would I not expect that?
I think that’s accurate for if you are drafting in August but early on in May/June I think it’s of equal or even more important to understand the guys going in the last 5 rounds who are going to see meaningful playing time especially once the preseason gets into full gear. You want to predict the guys late who are going to be moving up several rounds by August/September.
@@bestgreenpest I mean yeah but that example isn’t the best because it a QB or a rookie WR for that team on one of the worst projected offense in the league. But I’m taking RB shots over Maye all day depending on team makeup. But tbh I’m not a believer in Maye and heavily concerned with that organization rushing him into action. That said If I need a 3rd QB he’s very nice stacking potential late. To nice honestly it tempts me when my exposure should be lower end considering the offense.
i really like jahmyr but he’s not gonna get the volume a JT is. Yes, he’ll most likely have more chunk plays, catches etc. But Montgomery will get the goal line work and the inside the 5 work. Just dont see him finishing above JT and yet he is getting drafted ahead of him.
Daniel Jeremiah never says anything intelligent. He only gets good insight in the draft by getting insider info as opposed to his own analysis. JK Dobbins is going to do nothing again. Do not draft him.
Reasonable. But with IR option, I would just let him sit. Thing is, I stream virtually everything that rates it. Every season players no one expected emerges at all positions.
Are yahoo ranking whack? I’ve been doing Mock drafts on yahoo and Jonathan Taylor goes first round in 12 person drafts every time. Usually around pick 9-10.
Yahoo does their own rankings based on their in house experts. On Yahoo Etienne last year was an early 2nd rounder where on all other platforms he was 3-4th rounder. They were right.
@@scattau41 Interesting. I didn’t know that. Thank you for the reply. Do you happen to know if the yahoo rankings are trustworthy? Or should I use an alternate ranking system?
@@A_Hotdog_Guy You're welcome and yes I find them (generally) trustworthy. I would familiarize myself with the underdog/sleeper rankings then maybe listen to a yahoo fantasy football podcast or 2 to see where they are coming from and kind of balance the two in my own mind.
I'm avoiding Bears WRs. I like all of them but I am a Bears fan and I have my doubts that Eberflus and his ultra conservative nature is going to suddenly allow for a pass happy attack. That and they have a rookie QB and brand New OC too much unknowns for me to feel comfortable at the high price tags they are going for. Im basically fading all bears with the exception of Kmet who is going way to late IMO.
@@pfunk1992 There's a lot of change which was needed 💯. Shane Waldren minus Dave Canales wasn't good last year. His offense played very slow and that's really concerning. How much influence will Eberflus have on play calling is my second question. Because he is very conservative when games are on the line to the point where we lost at least three last year because he would go ultra conservative calling the defense and then they'd get torched on d late in a bunch of games. Defense would go from airtight to can't stop anything. I'm not sold on coaching staff and I don't know if they will actually utilize the talent they have. This is the same GM and Head Coach that watched Getsy install a quick out bubble screen offense making Justin Fields a pocket passer and didn't do anything... His strengths are running and deep passes and they took those away and thought this is a good idea. So yeah I am not confident in the coaching and leadership of this team.
I've never gotten the "JK Dobbins has been 'really good' when healthy." He's had a few good moments, but he's so far removed from them at this point. He's always injured with MAJOR injuries. I mean, maybe he can come back & play. D'Onta Foreman overcame early career injuries, so it's possible. But please, stop with this "he's the most talented RB on the roster" nonsense. He might not even be the most talented, & he might be done in terms of the injuries he's suffered.
Not drafting JT in the second round is foolish at best. I could see passing on him but only if there’s a player that you believe has league winning potential
Yeah like if you got a shot at a potential top 8 receiving finisher like Marvin Harrison then sure, but don’t be passing on Jonathan Taylor for someone like Devonta Smith whose gonna get you no more than 230 ppr points max
Hurts doesn't "run" the ball inside the 10YD Line. That narrative should be put to rest and that stat is meaningless when comparing to a traditional RB. Hurts "runs" from the 1yd line with 2 guys pushing him forward and his OL perfecting giving him 1yd. Will be interesting to see if his efficiency on the tush push goes down sans Kelce. C is a pretty important position when you are running through the A gap every single time.
Horrible RB’s have great seasons playing in Philadelphia. The All pro Center is gone so maybe there won’t be as much tush pushes, but we are brain dead to not understand how dominant Barkley could be in that offense
I'm gonna push back on swift here. It's easy to look at is as a negative downgrading his offensive line, but look how the eagles utilized swift. I don't have every game available to watch but I would probably bet a lot of money that a majority of those goal line carries were out of the shotgun. You could argue the eagles utilized swift pretty poorly. Also if you pace out swifts first 9 games, weeks 2 through 11(he didn't play week 1) and the eagles literally imploded from weeks 12-17, over 17 games: 85 ypg, 4 targets per game, 21.8 rec ypg for 1450~ rush yards, 350~ rush yards, 8.5 tds. You're talking about a top 3 rb season which maybe? Is unrealistic, but even if so, you can probably ball park his stats somewhere inbetween that and where he actually finished. Are we seriously not putting any weight into the way 1) the eagles used swift, and 2) the eagles imploding down the stretch from weeks 12-17. Even swifts usage changed in those 5 weeks. His targets dropped from 4~ per game to 2~ per game. Also, let's stop peddling this lie that the eagles moved on from swift "as fast as they could". All reports out of Philly were that the eagles wanted to re sign swift. The bears were likely talking to swift during the tampering period and scooped him up *swiftly* before the eagles could even react. They lost out on swift, they didn't intentionally move on from swift. I'm also biased because I'm all over swift this year as my highest owned player, but this swift slander is crazy imo.
Haha. Atleast you admit your bias, and have a conviction. But I think it's misplaced. Don't feel bad, I was the sameway about Jahan Dotson and Sam Howell last season. But we have plenty of time to safely predict that Swift just isn't great. Useful, sure, but never going to be a high-end RB by the end of the season. More of a weekly winners pick, more than a season long tourney. But he could spike in weeks 15-17...just like anyone. But highest owned player is a big risk imo, considering the players going around him.
@terrygreen3000 there's more question marks around Zack moss, najee/warren, brooks, and zamir white than d'andre swift. There are actually like no questions about swift imo, just the fact whether you think he's good or not. We know the bears paid him to be the guy. Swift, 24 mil 3 year deal, 8 mil per year, 15.3 mil guaranteed. Without a shadow of a doubt he was brought in to be the rb1. Zack moss, 8 mil, 2 year contract, only 3mil guaranteed. Does not inspire confidence that he will be the guy over chase brown whatsoever. Warren/najee, very weird dynamic with Arthur Smith and his history of doing unconventional things. If I had to guess they produce about the same but neither shoulder a rb1 load that you're looking for. Johnathon brooks, bad offense, and literally no idea on a return from a late acl injury last year. Could be early, could be late. You could miss half a years production. There's certainly question marks. Zamir white, bad offense with incompetent qb play, jury is still out on who this guy even is. Is he the rb1, is this a 2 or 3 man backfield? Literally no way to know. Meh prospect, couple good weeks down the stretch but was the only viable rb on the team. Complete gamble. Zamir white looked dead in the water until those last few weeks of the 23 season. For me, swift EASILY, has the least amount of question marks in this group. Literally the only question mark is do you think swift is good. The bears told us they believe in swift and the tape shows swift is a baller. I'm all in on swift over the rbs in this range that you claim are better for some reason. Also sam howell and jahan dotsons 2023 season blame can be pretty squarely placed on their dog shit OC bienemy.
@@abstract911 swift wears down as the season progresses, it's happened every season after his rookie year. He didn't get into the offense until around week 6 in his rookie season.
not taking devin singeltary is crazy. he is going to be getting 80-85% of the teams snaps. not saying he is going to be great but he will be better than rb 32
Giants drafted Tyrone Tracy, who’s been pretty hyped by the team so far. He’s younger way faster, and is an elite receiving RB prospect. I don’t think he’ll get 85% of snaps. Maybe the majority but definitely not that high of a snap share
Not crazy at all. He’s one of the worst starting running backs in the league behind one of the worst offensive lines in one of the worst offenses. He’s not a workhorse back. He’s good for 10-12 Carries a game and some receptions, just like every other year.
I prefer prioritizing WR in the first two rounds. Then again, JT is more proven than achane, plus Barkley has Hurts as a vulture. I'd rather just avoid RB altogether unless I get the 1.1
I think you guys are getting a little too caught up in the numbers with Dandre Swift. He was hurt two years ago in Detroit. So obviously they weren’t going to use him in goal-line situations while Jamal Williams is on the team. Detroit did the same thing with Montgomery and Gibbs last year. It just seems to be Dan Campbell’s style to have a go to RB on the goal line. Last season, swift was top five in rushing In the NFL. And when comparing his red zone touches to Jalen hurts, it’s not exactly apples to apples. All of hurts’ carries were the push play for 1 yard and a TD. Running the ball from the 4 yard line is a lot different. The eagles fell apart down the stretch last year. I think swift will be a top 20 RB this year. Chicago didn’t pay him 8 million a year (15 million guaranteed) to be a 3rd down back. His injury history is definitely something to worry about but his talent speaks for itself when you watch him play.
dak prescott. brutal schedule for the cowboys this year and he historically is bad against good teams. ill sleep well letting him go while i take kyler or caleb.
Hoping you are right with Swift as I think Herbert is a better option for us. I just think the coaching staff keep pumping him up and reliable Bears reporters have suggested he will be the feature guy and that Herbert might not make the team. I think Herbert is the better player but I am not sure the Bears agree with us
This is like when the community loves a player during the pre draft process and the nfl tells us they don't agree (Troy franklin) and you still hold onto hope that he's good. Not only did the bears pay swift a pretty large contract with guarantees, there has been multiple rumors of herbert being traded. Where there's smoke. Hoping herbert is the guy to own in this backfield is cope. And I like herbert and I hope he's traded to a team who has a hole at rb, but it's swift time in chicago
Idk man. I understand the Panthers offense won't be amazing, but the draft capital, tape, numbers and post draft speech from Canales detailing how they plan to use him, lots of manufactured touches and down field shots, have me smashing Xavier Legette at his adp.
I like Pearsall over him in that vicinity, but I've got a good amount of Legette as a WR 5ish. The upside of all the rooks vs. established mediocre talent is well worth rostering.
@@jluchette I've got a bit of Pearsall as well, but the prospect of him taking away a meaningful target share from guys like CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle seems a whole lot less likely than Legette competing for targets against Johnson and the ghost of Adam Thielen. Carolina also has a much worse defense which should result in Carolina playing from behind and throwing a lot more than they want to.
I don't even know how anyone can take Pearsall when the Niners have so many other elite targets. Legette anyday just because he's likely to be the most talented WR on his team day 1.
Round 1-2 guys winks isn't drafting (my guess): Bijan, Saquon, Marvin, Olave, Deebo. I'm also low on MH Jr and Olave bc saints are hot ass garbage and MH Jr will probably be Wr 2 behind McBride. Winks definitely betting on Ayjuk staying too but I'm not sure about that🤔
Kincaid as a fade is crazy lol. MAYBE he's a little high on ADP right now, but you even stated you'll still be drafting him, and that the split b/w him and Knox will be lower and he has a great chance to lead one of the best offenses in the league in targets and catches. Especially paired with Allen, who will almost guaranteed be top 3 in QB points, it's a no brainer to stack them often. I'm fine with you naming him a little bit overvalued, but he shouldn't be in a "we refuse to draft" video lol.
I’m gonna guess you got burned on drafting Jonathon Taylor during his contract dispute and now your saltiness about that and the injury that preceded and followed that (a thumb injury that doesn’t likely stand to be a future issue mind you) and you are letting that cloud your judgment on how well he was playing after getting in to the swing of the season before getting hurt. He’s still only like 25 maybe 26 and hasn’t taken that much punishment the last two years and the two injuries that have nagged him aren’t historically issues for him and aren’t historically tough to come back from (in terms of injury recoveries) and his upside is definitively being the best back in the league, especially in non PPR leagues. He’s one of maybe 3 guys who could legit go for 2000 all purpose yards. Don’t sleep on JT.
