as someone in the industry and in the know, overall very accurate assessment of the industries you spoke of, political situation, robotics, technology, china etc, present and future.
One note to the german car industry. It is not only important for the country’s economy, but also for many other countries as well as a bunch parts are manufactured abroad. One example is hungary. So the failing of german car industry has a ripple effect on much many levels
Yes, this is why many people, Peter Zeihan being one of them, have predicted the end of the EU in the next few years. I don't know when it will happen, but I'm surprised it stayed so long. The different levels of labor costs and taxes across the countries didn't really make sense long term. Curious I have heard that Soros is not allowed into Hungary, is this correct?
In a way, the US should hope that DJI gets weaponized in some way. This would be similar to the US weaponizing the financial system. The actual damage from a weaponized DJI would probably be quite limited but the long term consequence for the Chinese industrial sector would be massive. That being said, it's a great episode that highlights the importance of industrial innovation. General robotics is also a chance for the US to leap frog and create a new generation of industrial supply chain that's fully automated. They have to becareful of their tariffs though, those new industrial companies will probably be better served by leveraging the existing low cost chinese supply chain to create the new market. Otherwise, you'll get the situation that the auto industry is in where the US can't innovate fast enough because their own domestic market is not as receptive for EVs. Without a robust domestic market, all the US robotics companies will be fighting an uphill battle.
Suddenly I'm kinda blown away by what's going on in the world. I imagine this might be a little bit like when planes or nuclear were taking off. Also blown away that I can listen to such a high level convo while taking the dog, or maybe robot for a walk..
Agreed, I am also saddened by the fact that the only real way that you would know this is if you have physically left the US in the last 5 years. Aka this seemingly happened quickly, though I know it was decades in the making.
Keep in mind that these two are at the pinnacle of the VC-backed founder-led company building model. The guys on the All-in podcast are greedy, second tier VC attention-whores. This podcast and the two Brads' podcast are much higher value.
Great conversation! Something I'm curious about is how you guys think the software issues within robotics will get resolved. The approach that Tesla is taking with self driving cars and gathering huge amounts of data definitely can work, however the car is useful without self driving whereas humanoid robots without spatial awareness are not as useful. I'm thinking there will need to be some kind of breakthrough in computer science, maybe with simulations, to train the robots to do basic tasks.
There is a contradiction in your reasoning: If you assume that general purpose robotics is truly happening (aka one humanoid form-factor being able to do all the work/automation) the supply chains don't matter that much. You don't need shenzhen-level expertise and diversity because there are just not that many parts to begin with. Elon will probably be able to vertically integrate the production of most parts directly into one company instead of requiring a net of suppliers in the region (or even country). I believe the more the general purpose robotics thesis comes to fruition the less worrysome the supply chain would be. Apart from that I think the big surprise will be teleoperation. Imagine 10000 off-shore workers teleoperating humanoids in Tesla factories 24/7. I think we are much closer to this than most people think
Interesting breakdown on the dependencies in supply chains! Robotics and AI certainly open doors, but reliance on complex, international supply networks is a real vulnerability.
Hey Marc and Ben, have you guys considered building the "Shenzhen" and "Shanghai" of America in Houston, Texas? Natural port with tons of oil, easy natural gas, steel is produced in TX and a bunch of other coastal states, NC has the silicone. The natural port allows for cheap international shipping. I would build it inland 15 miles of Houston to avoid the hurricanes. Perhaps with Trump and Abbot you could request that a 15-mile square chunk of land could be in a Special Economic Zone where manufacturers would get a tax break for the first 5-10 years after they open their doors. To enable them to get production up and running. It's also close to our largest port, Laredo, Texas for cheaper labor and parts produced in Mexico. Until Optimus comes online.
Would love to have you guys speak to Chinese VCs, founders, and engineers to better understand the HOW and WHY things work in China. Come to Shanghai or Shenzhen, and do a podcast.
At some point during this conversation the two say that in California they hate America, somewhat humorously. Can someone explain to a non-American WHAT did they mean and WHY? thanks
It's right wing talking point . California stands against everything republican believe they have heavy taxes and government regulations but is the strongest economy in the state and is littearly no 4 I'm the world . None of right wing states come close even when they have everything the right claim they need .
They're joking that many californians haven't touched grass recently and don't know anybody who does strenuous labour outside of a gym. It's the idea that middle America is the real America. And that California is a sunny existence that allows you to develop viewpoints that don't represent or connect with the rest of the nation.
Quick thought in the USA, the reason they call them "States" is an indication that they are like 50 different countries. There are a lot of similarities, but there are tons of differences too. Lifelong Californian here. There are MANY reasons why they joked about how California (Government and the Leftists) hates America. Like others have said there are a few big cities that are very blue, and the rest of the state is red. They are saying this because Governor Newsome just made it ILLEGAL to ask any one for ID to vote. Aka I could have my 5-year-old niece walk in and vote. This is not ok. Its been for a long time that 18-year-old's with a state or local government ID is required. Leftists have also imported +3 million illegals into California over the last 15 years, so it will never have a chance of being anything other than blue. Another example is how SF has been a city that has had +10 years of open homeless, homeless pooping on the streets, peoples cars get broken into, so they roll the windows down and open the trunks so that people won't break them to get into the car, there are literally City funded places where people can get clean needles and drugs to shoot up with. When Xi came to SF (NOT Washington DC....) Gavin Newsom had ALL of this was cleaned up between the Airport and the hotel where they were at. They put up metal gates and tons of CCP flags. The only people there waving American flags were Chinese-Americans who had escaped to America, and don't want the CCP anywhere near America. Also they are transing children without any parents consent. Basically California is the closest thing to the CCP in America. And it wasn't this way when I was a kid. It has gotten much more Leftist (not Liberal) over the last 15 years. Also California actively chases away businesses out of the state through unnecessary litigation and regulation. Tesla leaving California is a prime example. There used to be 5 plus big auto manufacturers in California in the 1970's-1980's, but the unnecessary regulation crushed it and forced them ALL to move to some easier place. Now instead in Southern California we had many of the S&P 500 companies who had headquarters down in Orange County due to the nice weather, but the government regulation has become so crazy that most of them have left the state for Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and others. The government is killing our country. We have to cut it back to be able to breathe or do anything. That is what Ben and Marc were talking about. An example they said in the video was with the DJI drones. America had innovated them. Then Leftists overregulated them, China put 0 regulation on them, and they improved and became less expensive until they are what they are. This has happened wayyyyy too often. Its like Leftist work with the CCP to crush the middle class in the US.
Unions get integrated into company management and production procedures and policies which has a huge effect on how the company can be managed and even structured. The Musk enterprise companies just cannot co-exist with unions.
Agreed. He changes things and moves to improve things aggressively if things aren't going correctly. Having to deal with a Union on top would have destroyed Tesla. I think he still thinks like a software engineer, but with hardware. The good and bad part of that is sometimes you accidentally "delete" something that is essential, and then you have to re-add it in later.
Correct. Epstein files. Cease and desist malicious use of AI, energy weapons, satellites: Axis of EVIL / MAGA / Terrorists. My family and I are not your property!
HA. Great convo but the idea that Elon is going to save the EV industry in America is laughable. The man is full of empty promises, the Tesla build quality is shit, and "full self driving" has been five years away every year for the past decade.
Very much agreed. With the GPS and engine killing software freaks me out. I don't want the Government to institute some Bill Gates 15-min city hellscape.
Had to stop 8 mins in because the interviewer just doesn’t stop yapping and following discursive trains of thought. Just get to the point, dude! (Constructive criticism-not trying to put you down).
Nah. If I wanted to only hear leftist propaganda and lies I would just watch the Corporate Press. No reason to watch them lie to people on RU-vid or a podcast.
The tesla manufacturing example is misleading - Marc ignores the subsidies from California and the Fed govt that helped Tesla.... But hey, when you have an agenda, some facts are to be ignored
What subsidies? The ones that everyone gets without asking The only subsidy they got was a DOE loan office programme for EVs for $480 million for Tesla The $7500 tax credit isn't for Tesla it's for Americans and it's a tax rebate. The carbon credits are a law because if you Make EVa you don't make ICE You're the only one with an agenda with lies
Do you think ford and GM didn't get $11 billion from bailout or ford got a $5 billion loan it hasn't paid back and grants Tesla got one single loan. That's the only subsidy
The good thing is the US is leading in the software side?? (which btw not even entirely clear to say rn, China??) Great attempt at imperialist propaganda bud 🥴👍🏽
I agree, Mark and Ben are on the wrong side of the Dunning-Kruger effect on this issue, I suspect, neither of them are EE's. An EE can build a chip that hijacks, and taps any software system, so they got that part right though.
I'm past 1/2 way and this just seems to be rambling about automobiles. How is that related to the arms race? Plus, no mention of Anduril Industries. Sorry but this one was a waste of time for me!
Because that's what happened in ww2 and how you get an industrial base You don't get warplanes without a manufacturing sector for cars. Andruril is great but... where's their actual factory capacity? They are a startup still
@@TheMagicJIZZ I think they are a bit more than a startup, but I still very much agree with your sentiment. The US due to trade policies and politicians selling out their own countrymen, have hollowed out manufacturing in the US. It is a very real problem if we were to get in a war. Even if not, most of America is underemployed or under compensated (in relation to the value of what they can afford with their USD), due to the outsourcing of all of our goods. We need to bring back manufacturing and dramatically increase automation/robotics.
Russia is finally breaking through Ukraine's southern front in big ways. They have a huge drone advantage and are able to hit targets at will with hunter drones working 24/7 looking for enemy targets.
Are you drunk ? Mr vodsky ? Russia gdp is half Texas is such small ignorant full of s... Society hahah and on top of it they wont access AI power 🤣 so they will be north korea or worst maybe china takes over russia bc Chinese in reality hate russians
If Russia had that advantage that would be a terrible thing for the peace and stability of the rest of the world. It's a much more nuanced reality. Ukraine has managed to field a million drones themselves. Their manufacturing is increasing at a great speed. The question is whether or not the west and particularly the US military industrial complex can actually change to make it work in the new age where munitions need to be far cheaper and intelligent. If you believe your ideas on Russia being the one dominating in drones then you should actually check out the information coming out of Russian soldiers on the Frontline who lived in constant fear of Ukrainian drones. It is clearly brutal on both sides. At the level of innovation is amazing. Have a look at Ukraine's dragon drones for one example. Right now Russia has nothing to counter that.
This new form of warfare is terrifying. Imagine battle fields in the future will have men running for their lives being chased by a drone that cost 1/50th of their annual labor costs...
No they aren't because Google bought them and got rid of their DARPA contracts and then sold them to Hyundai It isn't an American company now. It will be Tesla or figue
