True. But what it does is keep Trump from expanding his appeal with suburban women and the under 30 crowd. RFK doesn't affect Trump defections, it affects new voters from coming over.
Dr. Lichtman has a great record for predicting presidential elections. He predicted Trump's win in 2016 amid all of the naysaying going on with the mainstream pollsters .
So I'm a MAGA person. Never mind his correct prediction 8 years ago. Do you honestly think RFK's endorsement hurts Trump? Polling data suggests otherwise.
But, does it bring new voters who are undecided? The Never Biden folks have largely left in the last few weeks. And, the Never Trumpers who were supporting Kennedy are not going to vote for Trump just because he has endorsed Trump.
I would say Trump voters are rejoicing at RFK Jr endorsing him. RFK Jr is very much a moderate with some views that are bit radical. In my opinion he gets more on side with Trump.
To those that disagree with Allan Lichtman. Do some research on his professional background. He accurately predicted Trump's win over Hillary, and Ronald Regan's re-election during unpopular times.
that isn't hard to do, Hillary had many red flags and Reagan was the most popular President in generations. He got Gore and Bush wrong actually, and his keys are obviously subjective in nature. He can modify their standards to fit the scenario and claim his model predicted correctly. There is no proof he actually made the right prediction every election of the past several decades.
But his predictions were based on popular vote prior to 2020. He claimed that he called 2016 right but Trump didn't get the popular vote when he won. So, technically he is full of it when it came to his 2016 prediction.
Problem is Lichtman has become woke, he no longer gives his keys objectively. He is giving 2016 There is no way Trump will win vibes. He knows he is going to win. The democrats jsut want him because he is a highly respected guy in the field, does not mean he is not a sellout
Easy. Supporters of RFK who were double haters, have now switched to Harris. That is shown by the loss of support for RFK since Biden stood down from the race.
@@kimbee5792 The economy has gotten better under Blue the last 3 times they have been elected. She has been endorsed by Obama who pulled us out of the economic recession caused by Bush and started the ACA. She is endorsed by Biden whose term I respected many things from as well. She is concerned about the environment and would support eco friendly energy studies.
RFK Jr. is not an "anti-vaxxer" any more than Dem's are "anti-war." RFK Jr. has said the newfangled mRNA design is debilitating, causes myocarditis and pericarditis (heart disease) and lowers a person's natural immunity that allows more bad things to happen to a person repelling outside (or inside developing) influences to hurt the body or brain.
Sorry. Dont agree. Haveing RFK on board is spectacular. This is not your typical election of two candidates. It is about democracy vs the Oligarchy that is already seeded in place.
In Texas, Harris had cut Trump's lead from 9 to 5. This is considering a third-party vote that consisted of West 1 percent, Stein 1 percent and Kennedy 2. Now two of that is going one way or the other, and Trump is still losing points.
That’s hysterical. RFK ripped the Dems a new one. The gig is up. Just about six weeks ago, Kamala ‘s polling numbers were hideous. But the sicko media has propped her up. Besides, other than stealing ideas from Trump…she doesn’t say anything. Another Dem hiding in the basement. She will now say what she think it might take to win. Disingenous doesn’t even begin to cover this.
Last week, KAMALA said, "the high food prices are the result of price gouging by the big grocery stores." 💙. One day later WALMART announced it is lowering prices on 7000 items including groceries!!
@@monichat And also, the *KAMALA EFFECT* on price gouging: The average price for regular unleaded gas is $3.35 per gallon today. That's 29 cents less than a week ago. 💙 Gas prices are falling across the nation !!
@@hughjorg4008 Fall blend gas is cheaper then summer blend. Do you really think they want Harris to win with all her regulations she will put on energy production?
Generally I like to listen to Allan but he said over and over again that getting rid of Biden would be a disaster and suicidal, he was very wrong about that.
He said that a brokered convention would be a disaster but if Biden stepped aside, the key could remain intact, if Biden nominated Harris, if the Party quickly coalesced around her candidacy, and if a brokered convention was avoided. All three of those things came to pass.
Destiny doesn’t survive at the feet of its forefathers, it carries them forward. You obviously know nothing about RFK jr. You can start anytime, loads of long format interviews on utube.
@@Thetradeaddict just listened to wonderful podcast that was made in last couple of days with Tucker Carlson,very informative,no lies. Not like the DNC it’s all misinformation disinformation,day after day. Kamala was the worst VP in history then she was hand picked. Waste of time, if she gets in, bad times a head for the USA. She an absolute deadbeat,nobody ever voted for her. Everyone know that the US will be better under Trump but Dems left it in a bad shape…
I voted for the Dems twice over Trump, and RFK was my first choice for this election. His message resonated with me. I will be voting Trump this time. The DNC has gone too cuckoo.
His rationale of why RFK's endorsement could hurt Trump seems to be based on his own personal feelings and not any hard evidence. It seems like he's trying to defend his reputation rather than accept that this situation is a wild card that his sacred "keys" didn't account for.
Of course RFK is a nut job. So it will shrink Trumps base even among moderate republicans. Also, it eliminates the third party candidate, which would have otherwise attracted a non incumbent voter base. So that's a net advantage to the incumbent.
@@unconventionalideas5683 The incumbent party is Kamala Harris. RFK Jr is a conspiracy theorist. He does not appeal to anyone who would vote for Kamala. He and his supporters are in the same camp as Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Tulsi Gabbard, Jimmy Dore, etc.
I'm hoping we'll find out a few weeks later, after all the ballot counting videos have been watched to ensure there was no CHEATING like they did in 2020.
RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard will help Mr Trump, no doubt. Junior and Gabbard stand for the basic postulate of democracy - human and civilian rights, freedom of speech - free media and antimilitarism.
Kamala is not weird, she is not the brightest bulb, she got promoted a lot in earlier years by milking SF Mayor Willie Brown who was more than double her age,so this is the type we dealing with and that’s where she got the title, “Heels up Harris”. It’s not about how hard you work it’s how hard you suck the higher ups, oldest profession in the world today and it still works. Until you end like a Clinton. Harris is not weird…
All coming out on top of the wars isn't doing well Russia just stepped up their military. All the hostages were executed that Kamala was trying to free. Independent voters recently stated they are voting for Trump because Kamala's policies are not what they want. Democrats just recently paid another Democrat on the ballot in Michigan to stay off they can't legally do that also they hired 2500 democratic and 50 Republican poll counters in swing states they are under fire for that. Kamala and Biden are getting charged for the departure in Afghanistan. FACTS
This guy is so ego driven. I've watch him in many interviews and know his background. I love how he parrots the same ridiculous smear about RFK - that he's "antivax". That's totally ridiculous. He's simply pro-safety for vaccines. We all should be and doctors should live by the rule - do no harm
no, he said Harris would inherit the incumbent advantage. He said Biden still had a strong chance of winning and getting someone other than Harris would be risky.
I was voting for RFK Jr now he endorses Trump I’m voting for Trump so I don’t know what he talking about!!! Just say him and the entire Network just don’t like Trump 💯😎💯
Dude, he's not talking about you specifically. He's talking about the aggregate of people. Not everything is about you. I think the impact of the RFK Jr dropping out will follow the Rule of Thirds. A third will vote for Trump, a third will vote for Harris, and a third will vote for neither. Ultimately, RFk Jr will have no effect, or about as much effect as he did before he dropped out, which was nil.
Same here I was voting for RFK and now trump even though I but heads with some republicans but I’m also butting heads with Kamala voters. I never liked her and I will never support her. I would rather have Tulsi as the first female president
Good luck with that You might want to do a little research and read several papers as well as watching other news besides fox Trump says- DONT BELIEVE YOUR EARS OR EYES why is that?
Those ‘subjective’ keys are much more reliable than polls. He’s predicted every single election since 1980 except 1 (Gore vs Bush) and the keys have retroactively predicted every single American election in history. It’s not subjective like you think and should try reading a bit before sounding like a fool.
@@JTNugget- the election results. His one loss was in 2000, which only a few hundred votes separated Bush and Gore. Bush won when SCOTUS stopped the count. However, Litman says that if it weren’t for SCOTUS, Gore would have won. He’s not alone in that view.
The third party key falls in favor of incumbent party which is Kamala here. Meaning there is no significant movement for third party threat. The RFK bunch are also an odd group because some will vote Kamala and some will vote trump and some will go somewhere else.
SPOT ON CORRECT... nobody seems to be in reality about a third party viability for success (even if RFKJ leads it, which I guarantee he will not). It's as plain as day to me that Bobby Jr. has already decided he has far more to gain from aligning with Trump, fighting against the Dems and globalists, and advancing his pet projects as a part of Trump Transition Team (his words). Clearly, Bobby is ready to transition with Trump into the White House on Trump's second term, provided he wins! Regardless of what is being said right now, a third party will never gain traction because anything other than the TWO PARTY SYSTEM is presently written in such a way that the policies and procedures prevent a 3rd party candidate for ascending to the top spot. I've voted for TWO third-party presidential candidates in my life and it was a mistake. Neither one gained even one Elector! Neither of them one even one state! If anyone thinks RFKJ is going to win a state they must be smoking something - no way that would or even could happen. Too many people right now don't want to see the underbelly of what REALLY happens in picking a president.
@@moiseshuerta3984 He would not dare make an error especially when a Trump presidency could further cement his GOLDEN LEGACY as a professional prognosticator in American history. It’s too precious of a reputation to risk a failed prediction.
@@Rode-e1o His keys are mostly subjective. Like the Scandal key, Imternational success and failure. And the third party key depends on polls. Which he says are only snapshots and hold no weight. His keys also only will predict the winner of the popular vote. Not by electoral college. If his keys were objective he would already be declaring the next President. So he is waiting on more data to make a final prediction. If you want a better predictor look at the betting odds. They have with 2 exemptions predicted the winner since the 1800s.
@@moiseshuerta3984 YAWN. I don’t give a F about the details of his prediction. What he predicts on score is what matters and unless some new Bozo Clown in Town comes along and makes a better Perfect record than him in PUBLIC, he has my praise and respect for calling a perfected record. Nobody has come close to his 13 keys and public record shows THAT.
@@sophia8405 that doesn't negate the fact that he's been right since 1984. You just can't stand the fact that your party will in fact be not be in the WH AGAIN.
@@TheToughBaby No. With the same reasoning that 70% of the population is looking at labels of the food they buy, and increase demand for organic foods. Even if it’s perceived as homeopathy, there is a large percentage of the population that’s into it. Ashwaganda went viral on TikTok and sold out, essential oils are a staple in a lot of homes. If any of this market was insignificant, Whole Foods would be out of business.
He’s a hack? Predicted every election correctly since 1980 (including Trump 2016) makes him a hack? 😂. I guess an overwhelming record qualifies someone as a hack nowadays huh?
@@supercsim He got Gore and Bush wrong, so he's a liar, and there is no proof of his actual predictions in the previous decades. He's just saying they fit his model and he would have been right. What a joke.
@@annewalter5024 it’s also a false statement. 1) He was wrong in 2016, as he said Hilary would win. 2) He came out with the 13 keys in 2002, so he twisted it to conform to the results of those earlier elections, they were never “predicted”. Right now, he’s just waiting to see how the polls go, in order to twist the keys to reflect who he “thinks” will win. If he’s wrong, he’ll go down in history with all the other kooks like him.
@@annewalter5024 Subjective keys on top of late predictions, guy is definitely a hack racking in money and attention. He talks about keys like they talk about spice in Dune.
His advice is all in the eyes of the beholder!! People hope and believe that what they want is what will be, human nature. We will know the outcome November 5th or 6th, and not before!
RFK endorsing Trump will not hurt Trump I think if he endorsed Harris would’ve actually helped her more than Trump as well ! TFK independent voters are more conservative than what Harris will present for sure
He wouldn't tho he's always been very stern in his beliefs heck he want the most pro Harris at first he always didn't like RFK jr anyway. You guys put words in his mouth without listening to him
I was a RFK voter here in Arizona. But no way im gonna vote for kamala. I prefer vote Trump and having RFK in the white house team. This guy is delussional
Sorry to have to be the one to tell you this, but any deal with Trump isn't worth the paper its printed on. RFK isn't going to be nominated, much less approved for any job in the administration IF Trump wins (which he probably won't).
If Washington and Lincoln came back from the dead and endorsed Trump, this clown would say the same thing. Hell, he said Biden was going to beat Trump. Anyone who thinks Biden was going to beat Trump needs help.
Okay, let's break down the simple fact here. MORE people who are already on the fence with Trump will jump ship than RFK will bring over. If I bring you 2 friends, but that will make 10 friends leave you worth the exchange? That's the problem with people who are steadfast in supporting Trump. They always think, "If I double down, all we need is our own and no one else." That type of logic loses races.
Well I suppose RFK being somewhat leftish and Trump being a 2025 projection rightward, maybe he’s referring to them going in opposite directions politically? RFK is much further left than Kamala for a start.
Off topic, this guy makes me want to exercise. Look how great he looks at his age. I find him fascinating too. I mean, his intelligence and uniqueness is above all the haters.
That's how we feel about half supporting Harris and her cackling and word salad, no details for any policies, no interviews, nothing on her website saying how she'll make changes, this has NEVER happened before by a presidential candidate, they ALWAYS have their policy info and stance on their websites, remember that.
This genius said Brandon was going to crush trump right before the D party tossed him out because they knew he couldn’t win. He straight up doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
Throwing a tantrum won't help. Please pay attention to the keys and his prediction after Labor Day. Harris will win the election, and Trump will never smell the White House again.
RFKs “signature campaign approach” is his anti- vax stance??? That’s just not true. And you can tell this guy is partisan by how he says “and this would threaten the health of children”. Dead giveaway
He's been right since 1984, which means he has predicted wins for both Democrats and Republicans. But he does seem to think Trump is in a precarious position, given his past performance in elections and other factors.
I think RFK himself would say that's a major focus for him. Trump has been taking credit for the COVID vaccine when it suits him, so it is not outlandish to think that there are undecided voters for whom vaccines are a positive, and that this endorsement could have a negative impact on their view of Trump
Nope he is just assessing how the world sees JFK and that doesn't have to be his view. Also denying vaccines to children threatens their health. Again its just true and doesn't have to be his view or my view its just a statement of fact. Truth is not partisan.
I don’t disagree with Allan. RFK’s too much of a risk with all his conspiracy theories. Trump and RFK don’t agree on everything but they agreed on making Americans healthy.
His track record has been impeccable. You would be a complete moron to bet against him. Go ahead, I dare you to bet against him. Bet your life savings if you think he's BS! 😂
It won't win Trump any votes he wouldn't already get in the end. A lot of those RFK voters will stay home. They were voting for him because they didn't like either of the other candidates. Now, sure, some of them might be swayed to switch to Trump because of him, but not all of them.
