"I was amazed at how much like our current experience in Iraq it [the US entry into Vietnam] was." And Ferguson was amazed that his correspondent was amazed. I guess the correspondent would have his mind blown if he studied the US war against the independence of the Philippines from 1899-1903+.
A good, solid analysis of these two dangerous situations. His purpose , of course, was to use them to illustrate how depth perception (aka 'History', the careful and non partisan analysis of evidence for helpful analogies) can give better data to use when important decisions need to be made. In this age of the culture war I was relieved to encounter an objective, evidence based talk no matter how disappointed culture warriors might be.
Indeed but a properly trained historian begins with all the evidence that can be found. Most public intellectuals these days choose only evidence that supports their point of view. Beginning with the answer and discarding evidence that argues against that 'answer' is all too common. Niall Ferguson's conclusions can be argued, debated, disputed, but at the least he begins with hypothesis and not with a prejudged conclusion. That is the real problem in discourse today.@Baron VonsFuden
Agreed, on two points.1. History teaching discipline/perspectives are overly compartmentalized. 2. Economics and Foreign Policy History are largely divorced. These are major opportunities. Thanks IAS
Most areas of thought and study are overly compartmentalized and I don't know how one would change this, within the structure of institutions. Many years ago, my Dad began teaching at a small university - it had about 2000 students. He taught Psychology and mostly interacted with the half dozen other profs in his department. But, at lunch most days, he sat at a table with: an Historian, an Anthropologist; a Physicist; a Chemist; a Sociologist and a prof in the English department. I think the only solution would be informal gatherings of this sort.
@34-35 Passive-response was used in the 1920 Crash, but you don't hear about that crash because it went away in a year or two,... unlike the active-response that was used in the 1929 crash. Contingency planning is, indeed, common sense in any situation. I don't believe another round of coordinated QE/ZIRP/IOER (inflation bubbles) or the OECD's recommendation for fiscal stimulus(sovereign debt) is the best thought-out plan. That is unless a spontaneous coordination of tar, feathers, rails, pitchforks and martial law are the objective when the bill comes due. With that said, I agree there is room for an historical school in economics and finance combined with historical analysis in the evolution of world affairs. I'll add that a rube goldberg tax system, not mentioned, has been imposed upon us all and is in dire need of being reformed given the increasingly iniquitous politico-economic results of tax havens, e.g. a decentralized form of Edgar Feige's APT tax.
Tony Inchpractice I wonder if you were thinking the same thing that I was. I love listening to Niall Ferguson, however, this time I couldn’t work a jigsaw puzzle AND listen at the same time. So I tried to listen intently for a moment, and I swear, he’s speaking in a different language. My comprehension was THAT bad on this particular subject. 😆 So when I saw YOUR comment, “Indeed 🧐” I laughed out loud.
Wolfowitz had already written a strategy paper well before 9/11: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfowitz_Doctrine. He and Rumsfeld agreed on all points of this doctrine.
What would the world economic situation look like if a Chinese economic crisis comparable to our own Great Depression takes place today, with the scale of such a crisis the Matched by the misery of the world
There is to much interest in that country to have that happen without warning and there markets are a bit more cut throat because of the amount of people. From my point of view it would be not much more of a massive amount of change of hands if that did happen. I know that the population is capable of it. However I do have a very limited view on the situation. I do not know how the population in that part of the world would handle or react to that level of change on higher levels or to what level they would take it. At least not in a modern sense.
The online payment system is only good when electricity supply goes 100 percent right and for a country exercise huge surveillance on its ppl in every aspect of their lives, but without electricity guaranteed supply, it could have huge disaster caused to the economy and the lives of ppl, suddenly, no cash available , no transactions could be operated. Well it’s better to allow online payment as well as cash both at the same time as cash could be a contingency back up in face of disaster!
I think the trade war perhaps allot of ppl see that there is harm to both sides but long term it’s good for America. Not only that America will not only rely on China supply chains which has proven that is a very dangerous thing todo from the pandemic, but also they way could bring factories or supply chains back to America, the trade deficit and unfair trade terms and conditions due to national subsidies from China will only help China accumulate more wealth but hurt America in the long term.
What happened to the green economy revolution? Weren't we going to fire up the factories and build new EV vehicles, creating jobs like in WW2 where we were building planes and tanks? Then we have a global supply issue, we don't have the materials or people with skills to do it. It turned into a pipe dream.
Ferguson treats two of the worst catastrophes of the 21st century like some kind of natural disasters, a flood or hurricane requiring swifter responses or smarter planning, more up to date drills or procedure. Totally missing is the human cost and moral consequences.
Are you under the impression that people aim for swifter responses, smarter planning and improved procedure for the hell of it? The whole point is to reduce the human cost. Whatever "moral consequences" means to you I'm sure I couldn't guess.
@@onehairybuddha Ferguson is an elitist snob, he refers to discredited Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice as "my colleague" and "Condy" but says nothing about the one million people or more who have been killed in the Middle East as a result of America's reaction to 9/11, that would be one moral consequence and the crushing austerity caused by the Western governments' response to Lehman Bros is another. I though Ferguson's omission of these obvious factors was remiss of so skilled an historian and I would disagree with him, the reverberations of both events are still continuing. We haven;t heard the last of them.
While Niall Ferguson's conclusion about applying historical analysis to crises is a good one, I believe his talk really missed the key points of the two crises in question: 9/11/2001 and 9/15/2008. He focused on the reaction to the events. He should have focused on why the events were allowed to happen in the first place. Why did the financial crash of 2008 happen? Many people made a lot of bad decisions. Suppressing the crash simply allowed all those people who made bad decisions to keep their jobs. And in the future, after things settle down, they can work their magic all over again. And they have been working their magic again. Now we have to worry about an even bigger crash coming. Why did 9/11/2001 happen? The rise of political correctness and all the baggage it contains. By not addressing the political correctness issue the country remains vulnerable to some other kind of attack. I'm thinking about an attack from another great-power. Societies crash just like forests do. It is well known that suppressing crashes (putting out fires) in a forest just make things worse in the future. So too with societies as I just showed above. Failure to respond appropriately to 9/11/2001 and 9/15/2008 means the situation is now much worse. Let's see: 1. Talk of a civil war. 2. Talk of another big financial crisis within a couple of years. 3. Talk of a trade war with China 4. Talk of another cold war. 5. Talk about the possibility of a great-power war. The West is a forest that is ready to burn down to the ground. Now we wait for a hot, dry summer and a spark.
That wasn't the point of his talk. He didn't do an analysis of the situation that led to both, his point was to analyze what was the decision making process of the people involved in responding to the situation given the information they had available, and what that said about risk management strategies in the financial sector vs risk management strategies in the int relations sector. If you're familiar with risk management theory at all, you'll understand what he's proposing.
We have imported saboteurs and arsonists. And we are instructed that our character will be measured, according to our actions to "embrace" them. In fact we are even banned from asking them their motives, or their thoughts on the forest. Does anybody see where this will eventually lead ?
When someone starts talking about 9/11 by assuming the official explanation is true, I know they are not being realistic and I can take what they have to say with a very large dose of skepticism,
And therein is a major problem the West has to address. Teaching, the passing of knowledge and analytical thought to the next generation, has for too long been subjected to disrespect if not contempt, by those who do not want to think too hard, and are satisfied with glib single sentance statements. Change the means and ways of teaching by all means. But respect those who devote themselves to its implementation.
@@gladyslustgirdle3004 What a coincidence. I also realize that the present day union-controlled US public school system is a disaster, that the teacher unions have ruined education in the US, and support a nationwide US school choice system.
@@DrCruel DR Fool. The downfall of the American Education system is not teachers' unions, but rather the fact that the teachers union has become a tool of the administration. Teachers are being mandated curricula by administrators, being forced to fudge grades of students, being forced to integrate ESL students into standard ELA classrooms, as well as a litany of other unfunded mandates... Any of the old teachers are being shunned, transferred etc for trying to stand up to the union forcing them to do these things... the weakening of the union by the countless cocktail parties, luncheons, and conventions that both union leaders and administrator attend together is what is killing education....
@@jamesburns9714 "Forced" my arse. Union teachers strike at the drop of a hat. All public school teachers care about are their salary increases, benefits and pension packages, and in reducing their workload. If teaching is so difficult, why not let the private sector have a go? Why not let parents choose which schools their children go to? Why do public school teacher unions fight against school choice with every dirty trick in the book?
Lack of applied histories is an institutional failure. It does lead to amnesia ie Vietnam and then Iraq. Lessons unlearned trillions wasted and pointless death Neocon influence on American foreign policy for the last 20 years has been an unmitigated disaster
Ferguson: more of a politician than a scientist, full of empathy against socialism or even social liberalism, and an absolute imperialist; what to say more? his books would be far more interesting if he was less Britain-centered and cynical
@@chrisormond The US isn't at all socialist, yet young people are still getting bodied in this America. The millenials are screwed, and boomers haven't don't shit to improve the country. So please tell me again how young people are causing their pain ? Don't fall back on whimsical examples of young people on social media. Strawman arguments won't help.
At the time it was argued that this "encourage everyone to go to college" concept would drastically reduce the quality of education, drastically reduce the value of a degree (a new HS diploma), and drastically increase the cost of eduction. All three occurred, leaving many today in a situation where they've built up massive debt at the start of their lives on degrees that have little value. Once again, a case of potential benefit that required invasive change...which (if you study history) generally means there will be far more down sides than benefits.
@@chrisormond With all due respect, I dont think Socialism is the biggest problem that Americas youth has at the moment (although it is becoming an increasing threat). Its just plain old cronyism. There is no other democratic country in the west that has its politicians so dependent on corporate influence like the USA. Just look at US Senators who have to spend 50% of their workday on the phone for fundraising. Things like these are a death sentence for the free market and its consumers, but it has nothing to do with socialism. If politicians fail to defend the free market and stand up against this corporatist bullshit, they will give more and more ammunition to anti-capitalist demagogues who can blame everything on capitalism. No wonder that young people fancy socialism, because the far left are the only ones who understand how to utilize propaganda. So if you want to complain about the youth being attracted to socialism, you should recognize its because there is no politician on offer who really believes in allowing truly free markets to exist
This guy is quoting fanciful quotes... They all knew what was going on at the fed.. I lived through three such booms and busts.. I remember thinking at the time... As many of you did.. They are doing it again. I was barely paying attention.. I was walking along a corn field in the Peruvian Andes and met two vecinas. They told me there was a crisis in Estados Unidos.. My first thought was they nuked LA.. Don't ask me why. Then I laughed and told them that the USA in an economic crisis was like a boom in El Peru..
Indeed. Like all theoretical parasite-academics who don't actually produce anything of tangible (or even intangible in most cases) value to society. They just opine whatever warped narrative their paymasters want.
