Anecdotal Data Suggests Otherwise... not sure where the deflationary processes are coming from? Exercise equipments were bought when we were locked up. Let's concentrate on food, energy, service. Housing Market is showing strong sign o rebound from the bottom of last fall.
Everyone saying inflation is down is hyper focusing on CPI/PPI because it's the only metric the public fucking cares about. PCE (The feds stated favorite inflation metric for good reason) has hardly even blinked since the hikes have begun. Retail sales trend line is Identical to pre-pan again and the spending is obviously debt as we can see in consumer credit. The fed has been so far a lot less effective then they would have liked at slowing down the economy and the market is just as reluctant to price it in as they were last summer, I am expecting a second rate shock to finish the job.
Market warning for all portfolios: The risk is greater than the typical beta due to US gov't debt default risk. (alpha is overstated and beta understated)
