Atlas Deep Dive US Ep 03 / 09.28.2024: Who is ahead in the swing states? 

Aka trump vs soro N black rock

​@@RomaldoGutiyep 😬

Absolutely appx. 80% mainstream media has been running her campaign! Trust if they started turning on her she would not be ahead in any polls except CA , WA , OR , NY !

The cross tab split for men and women are off, so probably not a great sample for NC

NC will vote for Trump 3rd time.

Democrats lost the state in 2020 with 300,000 more votes banked going into Election Day. This year it is on track to be less than 40,000.

Hi. Don't forget the red wave that never was. I'd like to see an organized Republican ad campaign. In my county, DeKalb, on YouTb, it's almost nothing by unchallenged, deceptive, Harris campaign ads.

@@dennispitcher8437 Nope. In 2020 they underestimated Biden by about 2% in most of the swing states.

They were the ones that came closest though…

@@norviliaetienne222 It is possible to get close results simply through luck rather than because of having a good methodology.

@@ShowsOn they were also the most accurate in 2022 which democrats won almost most of it

@@ShowsOnit’s also possible to get good results via methodology rather than luck and like it or not they were THE Single most accurate poler in 2020 and the midterms, they were off by 2 but EVERYONE else was worse many were very very wrong

They are usually very mercurial . That’s being young in general

I agree... I don't understand how they have young people going for Kamala in the sun belt but for Trump in the rust belt. It doesn't really jive. As you stated, others have young voters going for Trump nation wide.

It was tilted toward educated, which is an issue for all pollsters tbf

@@kw6713a They have too high % for the College ed.

this poll is just trash. Trump losing men in NC? Trump winning women in PA? 53% of PA voters went to college? It's all garbage.

Gallup poll has R+3 in the generic poll that's huge if accurate

Exactly how can you have harris winning nc yet losing popular vote lol no way something is fishy there

Maybe it's the mark Robinson effect

​@@Jerry-tv4bgreverse coat tails is never a thing. It could be heavy white young lib response bias because the response bias is like 15+ points worth w white voters in general.

​@@Jerry-tv4bgtheir NC poll is tapped, a 16 point shift w partisan low prop whites and whites w education who favored trump is impossible maybe 2 points, not 16, Robinson for all his faults will probably lose by under 5, just seems like an overrepresentatuon of educated whites that change the poll, if you out the 2020 margin w whites in their poll trumps up by close to 4 or more, virtually in every sunbelt state you see he's being underestimated and you can kind of see it in the poll. As with Michigan maybe the opposite is happening, maybe not, I don't expect Rodgers to win by 6 but we'll see. In PA the white margin and the black margin seem to cancel our by how much they are off by so I think it's about right, the suburban margin is a bit too favorable to dems if anything but I think it evens out. Wisconsin you see it in the poll where Trump is going to do better than that because men is usually 50/51 percent of the electorate in Wisconsin, but in their poll it's 44.8.

Why is early voting going bad for Democrats?

They're going to next

trump is going to lose this election bigly. you can count on it

Harris has pounced Trump with billions donated from her elitist more $ for Ads ! 😢

Why did he say "I have no plan I have concepts of a plan"

@@randomhuman2595Why did Kamala say Trump wants a nation wide abortion ban when he never said he did once?

His 4 years were more than a plan. Kamala’s plan is leave the border open.

@@gottfriedhub Not true. Trump refused to say he would veto a national abortion ban during the debate. That means he supports a national abortion ban becoming law.

@@rod272727 Trump has pretended to have a plan to replace Obamacare since 2016, but all he has is "concepts of a plan".

Don’t get me wrong the map is still favorable for trump and 4 those Harris supporters criticizing atlas this doesn’t look bias at all.

Top pollster in 2020. Cry more.

@@brianliam54that was 4 years ago

@@brianliam542020 was during COVID where nobody cares to hide their vote

@@howclosearewe5550 we will see. Strange things ahead

@@howclosearewe5550And?

For Harris. True.

Cope harder

Too many women in their WI poll but trump is still up, in WI men are 50/51 percent of the electorate but they have it at 44.8 percent of the electorate. It's weird because they seem to maybe poll the low prop WI voters but completely miss them in NC.

@@Fly_Slo Also check on how many sampling of college vs no college education in the polls. Over sampling of college education voters tends to help Harris also. Does the sampling of gender and education always come out favoring one candidate no, but it tends to favor one person more often than not. I'm a female with a college education and I'm voting Republican, so I'm an exception to the rule.

@@omaratassi6697 well for example in 2020 trump won w non college by 43 in NC (Avg nationwide is trump winning them by 24), trump actually won white college voters in NC by 5 (nationwide it was Biden +10). So my point is white non college voters are 1.5 x the vote of white college votes in NC, and Trump won whites in NC by 24 points in total. I calculated it (that's 73 percent of the electorate) . You can't have him dropping 16 points with a demographic that is 73 percent of the electorate and be a serious poll of the state. If white college is trump +5, and you got trump +9, your white vote that they got in NC has white college voters being like 85 percent of the white vote (if trump held his 2020 margin w white college in NC) , it's like 39 percent of the white vote in reality. Statistically impossible to be accurate, in NC it's also heavy white, low propensity, working class votes that are hard to poll, pollsters in 2020 had Biden up 5 there at one point, trump won by 1.3, same w Hillary where Trump won by 3.4. Pollsters have a history of underpolling white support with trump in NC. Polls also tend to poll more liberal whites who do nothing with their lives other than answer polls trying to manifest a non existant reality. Like in Pennsylvania they had trump winning whites by 4 but only losing blacks by 6, neither of those will happen but at least you can say in the poll they will even out or something, in NC that same thing doesn't happen. To me their best looking polls were PA and MI. Their Midwest methodology seems a bit better to me. You can't have trump improve with every demographic in NV and lose the state by more than he did in 2020, NV also has low prop voters in Clark and the rurals that they probably didn't poll. You see in their Georgia poll where their mess ups are at very clearly. Cross tab diving when 1 thing is off is stupid to do, but when it's with the biggest demographic it's impossible to ignore.

@@omaratassi6697 well for example in 2020 trump won w non college by 43 in NC (Avg nationwide is trump winning them by 24), trump actually won white college voters in NC by 5 (nationwide it was Biden +10). So my point is white non college voters are 1.5 x the vote of white college votes in NC, and Trump won whites in NC by 24 points in total. I calculated it (that's 73 percent of the electorate) . You can't have him dropping 16 points with a demographic that is 73 percent of the electorate and be a serious poll of the state. If white college is trump +5, and you got trump +9, your white vote that they got in NC has white college voters being like 85 percent of the white vote (if trump held his 2020 margin w white college in NC) , it's like 39 percent of the white vote in reality. Statistically impossible to be accurate, in NC it's also heavy white, low propensity, working class votes that are hard to poll, pollsters in 2020 had Biden up 5 there at one point, trump won by 1.3, same w Hillary where Trump won by 3.4. Pollsters have a history of underpolling white support with trump in NC. Polls also tend to poll more liberal whites who do nothing with their lives other than answer polls trying to manifest a non existant reality. Like in Pennsylvania they had trump winning whites by 4 but only losing blacks by 6, neither of those will happen but at least you can say in the poll they will even out or something, in NC that same thing doesn't happen. To me their best looking polls were PA and MI. Their Midwest methodology seems a bit better to me. You can't have trump improve with every demographic in NV and lose the state by more than he did in 2020, NV also has low prop voters in Clark and the rurals that they probably didn't poll. You see in their Georgia poll where their mess ups are at very clearly. Cross tab diving when 1 thing is off is stupid to do, but when it's with the biggest demographic it's impossible to ignore.

Pollsters know that Republicans are less likely to respond to a poll and thus factor that into their weightings. The better pollsters compare the responses they get against the state voter file to determine if they are oversampling one party over the other.

Why wouldn't you respond to a pollster?

Cope!

​@@georgeelvis4442 if you seriously believe north Carolina will vote 7 points to the left of the nation after it voted 6 points right of it in 2016 and 2020, I've got some drugs to sell you, also if trump wins Hispanics by 37 and whites by only 10 after he won them by 23 in 2020 I've got drugs to sell you lmao. It's a combination of response bias. Robinson probably loses by less than 5 and Trump wins by closer to the margin they have him losing by (3-5). If you just do 2020 margins w white voters he's doing better w Hispanics and blacks and the men numbers are tapped so.

Again, top pollster in 2020. Cry more and more.

@@brianliam54 if you believe NC will vote 7 points to the left of the nation after voting 6 points right of it the past 2 elections w whites in NC shifting 16 points left you need a checkup, just put trumps 2020 margin w whites in the poll (their habits didn't change much from 16/20 in NC) and he wins NC by like 4 in their poll.

You clearly have Stage 5 TDS.

Harris despised McCain.

Dems ignorance is Bliss 😂

How? They were the most accurate in 2020…

They were the #1 most-accurate pollster in 2020, with the lowest error margin of all organizations - over 20 of them.

I think their sunbelt methodology sucks, you can see in the poll how well trump is doing despite styff that clearly wont happen. Trump won whites by 24 or so in 2020 in NC, if he only wins them by 9 in a poll it's just a bad poll. In Georgia if trumps winning independents by 7 and doing better with blacks he's won already. Biden Won them in Georgia in 2020 by 9. Trump wins Georgia by 3 to 4 atp.

@@ToWhateverEndbc they had like 2 polls in 2020 and they had 2 polls in 2022 💀

​@@howclosearewe5550 It could be limited resources, the US isn't the only nation poll in, they've used polling Romania, Brazil, Argentina last year and Venezuela. I've seen their 2022 polling for Brazil and 2023 Argentina polling, they were quite close to say the least.