Austin "NOW” In A Buyers Housing Market 

I think it somewhat depends on the neighborhood you are buying. Some areas have a much bigger inventory glut and starved for buyer much more than others. While far from perfect, the reventure data on housing inventory per zipcode varies a lot, and sometimes even the neighborhood within the zip matters. Supply and demand between south Millwood/Barrington Oaks and Great Hills are very different. The market is becoming extremely bifurcated even within Austin. It is not the same picture throughout the city. The biggest weakness I see are areas competing heavily with cheaper and plentiful new constructions.

Glad home owner in Austin proper. No interest in the short term "hot or not" market. Real estate goes through waves and it was crazy 3 years ago. It will cycle back up again in a few short years or less. A correction was bound to happen with such high demand but nothing fundamentally negative truly changed here. Austin is such a developing city to raise my young family in and love the vibe. To anyone new or looking, buy and hold with the long term lens. Short term will be rocky but you will be happy in the future. I know I am and bought in 2021.

I think buyers have just accepted the rates and are factoring them into their budgets. Buying houses despite the rates as they're now "used to" it. In 2022 you couldn't find a house for under $450k unless you were on the outskirts of Pflugerville or Leander. Now they're in all but the nicest neighborhoods. But prices are still a lot higher than they were in 2019 and with the tech industry slowing in Austin I wonder if they'll continue to slowly decline to a more natural level consistent with normal Austin demand. I think the remaining holdouts are just continuing to save and will end up buying when they think the prices have fallen as low as they'll go and just accept a large interest rate when they finally buy. My gut feeling is that those waiting for rates to go down will miss out or be in a sea of other bidders when the rates do come down. In that sense the market right now is sort of friendly to buyers. When rates go down it'll be another frenzy and sellers will cash in.

In north Brushy Creek, big homes from 750 - 900k are pending in a week. I figured with higher interest rates, more expensive homes would sit longer. Guess I was wrong.

@2:45 Your editor needs a raise - they are keeping up with your hand body language

Kyle seems like it's plummeted in terms of resales selling fast. Houses are sitting for 90+ days. Only new construction

ok I waited to watch the full video, I think my winter thesis could be correct, it could be a cold winter. I don't think this situation will be dire. This is artificially created due to higher rates.

Do you think Zillow's data is correct? 9 days ago, Zillow had 4609 homes for sale but today we have 5325. If Zillow didn't change how they count homes, it is an increase of around 15% in less than 2 weeks. Available options for rent also went up 3639 to 4149, but that is "only" an increase of 13%. It looks like a lot of leases are running out and people just leave the city. Builder activity is also crazy high. According to MMG, about 31,000 units will be delivered in the next four quarters. That is 18% of the existing inventory. Last year, builders "only" delivered 21,000 units. Unless the new factories (e.g Samsung) in Round Rock have a huge impact, I assume falling prices for a very long time.

This is typical for the real estate cycle, first you get an over glut of new construction, then new construction discounts their prices effectively shutting out the resale market. I mean who wants to buy resale if you can buy new. The resale market won't improve until the glut of new construction is gone. Resale sellers who can wait, should wait. Probably won't be good to sell resale till perhaps Spring of 2025. So yeah, Buyers can buy now, because for the Construction Industry, its a fire sale.

Ouch Bastrop yo

Some neighborhoods that have older houses are sitting. Some sellers aren’t being competitive compared to new construction. I only bought new construction. I bought in 2017, 2019, and 2023. I toured a good amount of pre builts and a lot of them never took pride in either maintenance and or doing upgrades, but want the same amount as builders that are also offering incentives. Despite that these interest rates are starting to set in and buyers are accepting the current state of the market. When the fed eases up. People will be bidding. Builders will build less inventory homes. Most of the buyers who bought at peak won’t be selling because they will probably just recovered most of the equity they loss during the dip pretty much breaking even give or take. Also some of the bought their forever home from the previous equity. I do think prices will go up in 2025. Not by much, but a crash won’t happen with all the technology, and ways to make additional income.

My opinion this is not a buyer's market. Give it within a year and a half, and we'll see 50% cuts on those $500,000 houses!