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America incompetent has been the indolence of Americans, the influx of very lazy and ignorant illegals from latin america. china compentency is false egoistic pride rooted in revenge and hate that keep telling themselves they are here to rule the world. No one can rule the world through stupidity (british empire, USA, colonial powers, etc) and hate. Soft power and uplifting others as humans is the way to go.
Brilliant talk my ass.. Indians are scammers everywhere. Balaji’s bet about a million dollar worth of bitcoin is supposed to be today. 90days is over so where is it?
There is whole another reason why india is going to shine. They are friends with everyone. They dont take sides, neutral policies, live and let live policies. They are non-west but not anti west
This guy is something else 😂, he’s starts out by saying china vs Indians Not India but then he never completed his sentence on why he said “Indians” and not India, I believe he stop himself because he knows the reparations if he would have said a civil war is coming that would breakup India into many other little countries vs China, that’s why he said Indians and Not India.. he’s scared now that slip of tongue just got recorded 😂
“They are friends with everyone” ?? What neighbors do India actually get along with? Even The Modi Hindu government is attacking its own minority communities who question them about their rights so I ask who are their friends your talking about? What nonsense
Indians because I think they are very smart, specially in maths , Usa have 36% something indians in Nasa, most of the good doctors are indians, big company ceo's are indians etc
@@PoshakDua that's not true brother not all the smart people moved out...in fact smart people population which are living in india is very very high compare to smart people population not living in india. It's just your misconception
I believe capitalism in USA is a big reason behind why many talented indians have moved there in the recent decades, cuz apparently capitalism tends to be more rewarding for competent individuals. But times have changed since the liberalization of indian economy which started in 1990s, and even the current indian gov is tilting more towards capitalism. On top of these systematic changes, the mindset of the indian populace (specially that of the growing middle class) is adapting quickly with the rapidly changing 21st century global socioeconomic structure, as they've almost recovered from hundreds of years of colonial exploitation.
I know many smart people in India, and those who moved to US (possibly more in India than in US). Once you get a US education, you tend to stay put and find a job - academia or professional. But many Indians also don't go to the US for education after their undergrad. You will find a larger pool of "smart" Indians in India, compared to the ones who go to the US. Everyone who goes to US, is not the best and brightest btw.
Can most of us in the comments section agree we are highly incompetent to judge if what Balaji says is an accurate predictor of future trends? It seems that most comments below are based on feelings rather than clear measurable trends.
It's ALWAYS based on feelings when it comes to Indians. Lol Not all. But damn the majority definitely. They don't know even know Modi is giving them lollipops to keep them 10 steps behind the West.
India is poised to grow at as steadily good rate, although it will upset both optimists and pessimists. - Why steady coz of their generally non-partisan views on global matters and emphasis on education and industry to feed a burgeoning population; also a generally non-hawkish foreign policy (unlike China). - Why not live up to expectations coz of it being an extremely noisy and chaotic democracy with several groups with vested interests; also the very diverse population with different viewpoints. Very hard to control. Also overall less than optimal policymaking, regulatory environment and polity. - Why will they do well in the future coz they're beginning to realize the importance of home grown companies and intellectual capital. You can look at indicators or historical facts across each of the points I discussed. India is a very imperfect country; but given a long time period they're poised to do well.
@@prasvasu4217 I completely agree. India does have a lot of problems but Indians are now recognising them and actively trying to solve them. I remember the mindset 15 years ago during my school days, it was extremely negative "Nothing is happening in this country. It is going nowhere". Now the mindset is very different, it is aspirational, working hard and solving problems. So things should be better in the long run.
10:32 - 11:29 - the missing piece in Balaji's commentary is the rapidly shrinking working age population of China & the increasing retiring population. That's a challenge that takes 2 decades plus to solve if detected on time but China seems to have left it too late. He could have addressed it directly at 16:05 - 16:08, 19:29 - 19:33 - true, I almost didn’t recognise the city I left for Europe when I returned for the first time after 8 years, and that was in 2012! Its evolved a couple of times more since then but at a tremendous cost. The loss of wetlands to buildings is the key cause of increasingly damaging & dangerous floods
Population shrinkage is a problem but it isn’t as big as it is portrayed since China transitioning towards automation. More youth in the future means more unemployment and therefore more instability.
@@jliang70 you completely miss the point. If couples have one child each, the population halves in a generation even if Healthcare is the best in the world & halves again in the following generation if that trend continues so the market size will do the same. Besides, the elderly buy far less. Do you see the problem now?
As an Indian i personally think China has better system in place we currently dont have that today we may look we are growing because we have leader in place forget wether he is good or bad for our social harmony, but our problem has always been what happens when they leave, people have always predicted after this person this guy will take over but in India it just doesnt happen.In India taking history into account the person you dont see coming (sometimes you dont even know existed) pulls up and takes power almost all of the time.
Better system in what sense? India is what Europe tries to be but has failed to be (they could barely hold the “union” together); it is orders of magnitude more diverse than China. How many languages are spoken in China? They cannot even handle a single ethnic minority like the Uighurs without brutalizing them. India while held back by colonialism, has never had civil wars or genocides despite so much diversity (every other large geographical entity has had it). Looking at the last 50 years alone is a very myopic view. Please tell me how the “system” is inferior!
@@0m13 Mostly right but India has had civil wars and genocides. That ofcourse depends if you count the converts not as a foreign population. The genocide of kashmiri Hindus and their exodus (7 times), the Malabar genocide, the Marijhapi massacre, the Christian Inquisition of Goa and many instances. Even the British colonialism of two centuries took lives around 60-70 million just because of Artificially created famines alone. But all these were between The native faith systems, collectively called hindus and Abrahamic faith systems. Mostly xtianity and i$lam, not Judaism though. But yes, historically (ancient) India or Bharat never had genocides or civil wars. Battles between the kings happened, yes sure but not with the people.
@@0m13 India has suffered over 800 years of brutal invasions and colonisations. Many just think that the invasion is just 100 year by east India company and 100 year subsequently by British monarch. No that’s not true. Those who say this purposely want to contain this sentiment because of large Muslim population in India that can cause really serious problems. India has bloodily suffered 800 years of brutal invasions and Britain just gave a last touch to it and helped take it on a declining path including dividing the country and painful transfer of people and in the process it extracted almost everything from India..
If you haven’t lived in China don’t make assumptions based on news . You really have no clue about the reality of china, you only know what CCP tells you.
Honestly most Indians in the US vote for Joe and love Dems. Dems hate India. How that will help us? Americans underestimate indian innovation of UPI, its one of example. Now think about the per capita income of 50k USD of 1.5 Billion people. Can you imagine that? That's what will gonna happen with India by 2040
I thought it was an interesting snippet. Balaji has a unique and deep take on the world. I think he's spot on about the US, China and India but I think he underestimates how fragile China's internal systems are. There's a lot of tension and people don't like Xi Jinping's defacto dictatorship. (i've spoken to several Chinese citizens who left the country about this subject). Centralized systems often go ahead fast but they topple quickly, case in point, the USSR. We saw how many Chinese cities had blackouts because China stopped importing Australian coal due to some petty squabble. India and USA while they're bogged down by democracy have safety valves built in and are more robust because of it. I'm putting my bet on India and USA being safe top 2 of 3. China while being formidable industrially right now could end up getting pegged down if they end up in wars.
China's internal system has fragility and strength. The Chinese were the first to come up with the imperial civil service back during the Han Dynasty period . Most modern system we have today is an evolution of that civil service system ( basically - bureaucracy) . That allowed for greater centralisation . Yet it allowed the provinces to have governors to act with great autonomy . It will be a fight for a balance between centralisation and decentralisation. Historically the balance have been more towards centralisation with room for decentralised maneuvers - which permitted great prosperity. China in a modern sense is a parallel of the Roman Empire . Even the US is an empire but for some reason americans don't like it . Caesar said - vene , vidi , vici - I came I saw i conquered . America today is - I came I saw i conquered i am sorry . US did what it had to do , it has no reason to be sorry . It can introspect but it should not be paralyzed to act . The US is a great nation . The xi jinping era signals too much centralisation but that doesn't mean the Chinese Mandarins are not aware of the issue . It's too early to know how strong the centralisation is . I would place a bet only around 2030 . From that point it will become clear if the Chinese have a card up their sleeves which they are holding close . If not it's India and the US .
he is right, but if indian residing in india wants to prove him wrong( which he wont be upset if done), they need to step up in the field of technology and compete with west otherwise only indians residing outside india vs china will the scenario. hope people understand. nice convo btw
@@rahulvats95he didn't say usa is going to become a third world underdeveloped country, he just said it will like the uk of today, still developed and rich but definitely not as powerful as China and India.
@@sabtaingopinath9652 you have a strange definition of weak. lol it's growing at 7%+ year on year, and going to surpass Japan and Germany within a decade.
A feedback: I am not proficient in English, possibly its that, but Balaji's language is a bit hard for me to understand. It becomes very hard to make clarity about the content at times.
That's ok. He didn't say Indians will be masters of English. But it certainly is going to improve. We already have the 2nd largest English speaking population. Most of our schools today have most of subjects taught in English. It's obvious, with that much of population.
You're ignorant. Most successful Indians are still in India. Tata's, Mittals, Ambanis, Adanis and the likes. All the ISRO scientists who are able to execute Moon and Mars missions at fraction of costs. Indians in the US have climbed the corporate ladder but they will never ever succeed at high level in Media, Business and Science at the same rate. And when push comes to shove US govt will not hesitate sending them to Internment camps en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internment_of_Japanese_Americans
It's starting to show that the Chinese model is unsustainable. It's a centralized empire model, which is undermined by ethnic warfare and political infrastructure cracks. The biggest handicap is the centralized finance model, which is starting to crumble under the weight of the population, chronic health issues in the population, and the government picking the winners and losers. Foreign direct investment is declining rapidly. As the economy starts to decline with waning demand, they would have to move to a venture model not dictated by the government. They aren't innovators outside of military technology, and their attempts at colonization is failing in Latin America and Africa. They are becoming the British empire of the 21st century.
Haha, you wish you knew what you were talking about. Most of the things you have mentioned are far more true for the US than they are for China. One just has to get rid of one's confirmation biases and see things objectively for what they are
Your 100% right. Great analysis. I think its crazy that pepole think china can grow like that. Best case is that What happened to japan in the late 80s and 90s, will happen to china.
@@melburn4596 US is hardly infallible. Their credit rating has been downgraded while poverty, crime, drug abuse polarization and lack of civility is on the rise.
Indians are not moving back to India. Therefore, though they may be Indian heritage...they won't be Indians as such. When you what to become a superpower, it's difficult if you can't identify as one, especially when you are 4th generation American or Australia or British and etc. India currently has no chance in overtaking China...many companies like Foxcon and iPhone have stalled their expansion in India due to Workers not being skilled nor have the same work ethic, red tape and lack of infrastructure.
You must be smoking good stuff because Apple doubled its Indian made iphones across 2023-2024. And no there's no documented shortage of skilled manpower either. Foreign investment in the Manufacturing sector has grown every year in India. Nvidia is setting up one, Microsoft is setting up a data centre and dozens of other plans are underway. You are gravely misinformed.
I actually think he is right about India like 90%, but I would say he is somewhere around 60% right about China, and, he is 100% right about the USA. tbh.
Indians worldwide meaning the diaspora. The diaspora will have to play their part to influence decision making in their respective countries in case of a Sino indian war, which by the way is inevitable. It will also help in countering influence and dependence of the world on china.
China has fudged their growth for almost 3 decades and now economy is correcting itself. Their real estate and shadow banking industry has gone bust, but i want to see how they work out when their rural debt will be called up and debt of other industries like HSR, steel gets called up. India, will be a player but it will not be like US or China. I think, India will exist as France but with much more independent foreign policy.
often times people who declare a bet on the future Has skin in the game with the said Country I wonder how biased his take is... Like Ray Dalio. Ray Invested so much, can't speak against it. Turning a blind to the current events and choosing to stare at history instead.
You didn't understand the meaning of Indians? Indians are everywhere. Smart people in the western country will be Indians. China will indirectly compete with Indians not india. He is correct. Indian political class will still won't understand how to defeat China. China will be defeated by Indians but not from India.
China is too highly dependent on it's integration with Western economies. Which is the same dependency India (and Indians) are in. But the global economy's growth is going to be the African and Middle East economies. If you look at which high growth militarized country has the best access to these economies, it is probably Turkey. So I'm betting on Turkey. It also happens to be diversifying it's economy at break neck speed with an almost alarming disregard for inflation and quality of life, despite being a democracy. That's the kind of momentum that creates an empire. China and the US will however likely remain #1 and #2 for at least a few more decades. They really need to start trying to drag each other down for anything to change on that front.
I am from India and I spent ten years of my life in the US. As matters stand, the US is exactly in the same spot politically as Great Britain was in 1939. It perished within seven years and lost its glory. The US has fought so many wars and printed so much currency that it is sinking under its weight. It can't fight its wars anymore because it doesn't have the money to do so. Inflation is rampant and by the end of 2024, the US will be at the beginning of a depression though a new term will be coined to describe it. The facade exists but the building is badly damaged and unlivable. Like all empires that were based on brute force and bloodshed, the US empire will be gone too. It is only a matter of a decade.
What kind of comparison is this ? The US has the most powerful army in the world. The US has the most important and powerful tech in the world. The world uses US tech and thats not going anywhere. People like you are delusional.
@@willdanger6833 It is the typical pride of indians coming out. Before achieving anything they will think of a hypothetical situation where India is going to be a superpower. I am Indian by the way. But I have woken up and smelt the coffee
@@ZionistWorldOrder How would you delegate in an involuntary manner? Care to explain, I don’t think you can. By the way, maybe you should take a look around, your Zionist World Order is coming undone, we’ll see who gets the last 😂, it won’t be ZOG. 2 billion Muslims, 2 billion Christians and 15 million Jews - long odds, “friend”.
India is a threat to the Basel system and the next conflict is not with china but with USA. Why first, USA underestimates most countries even though it’s barely held together itself. It underestimates India. India is very strongly aligned diplomatically in the world and military wise one doesn’t have to do it alone but strategic alliances makes it more meaningful. If not a country can exhaust itself doing it all on it’s own. Good example is what’s going on ie Bangladesh st Martinique island. Forcing Hasina to sell to USA.
Per Wikipedia, Hasan Minhaj is of Indian heritage, not Pakistani. You are a great thinker, Balaji, but I really hope this was a rare example of an inaccurate statement from you, cos I take your words super seriously. Thank you for your intellect!
Hasan is a pick me Indian and Pick me South Asian. He would still be a pick me if he was Pakistani. What even is Pakistani heritage? They're not like Bangladesh bro. I think Indian heritage should apply to all. India referring to the subcontinent instead of the country.
Well the basic ideology of Pakistan is “not India”, they should have just named themselves that. In that sense, Hassan is the same. And he also admitted to lying and exaggerating most of his “stories”.
I know I'mma get attacked on this for sure but as long as our populace cannot comprehend the facts about why they went into slavery and got fvcked by the Islamic invasions and the company I don't see ourselves making big moves individually, because we are still missing that unification as a group of people or even as a country because we are soooo diverse. This is the naked picture people, we have to speak in a foreign language and let em know what's up because you wouldn't understand shiiit if I used my own language 🎉
For that the social fabric of safety and illiberal values need to be maintained. Economy and that goes hand in hand. Country needs to be anti-Islam and inculcate similar minded and well invested law and order officials as well as population control bill to control the demographics. If demographics changes then all this direction would change. Present govt is doing that somewhat but nowhere close to enough.
China's biggest problem is not PR it's their massive population decline. Decades of one child policy with mostly males, along with 12-12-6 model of work 12 hrs on, 12 off 6 days a week has decimated their population.
"International INDIANS" have ZERO political power, army, or a nation. Its Bharat that will flourish ie India. Mark my words, the Sub-Continent Akhand Bharat will flourish ;)
@@imacarguy4065 I agree, getting Hassan Minhaj's country of origin wrong isn't that serious. I used it as an example(should have used something else probably) but my broader point was that the guy's thesis is very wrong cause it's built on a lot of wrong assumptions and factually wrong data.
This is literally what many Chinese immigrants in australia and middle easterners in Europe and America do. They play large roles in government of western countries to influence policies in favor of their homeland
Right of the top I'll give you a reason he is WRONG about the dominating countries by 2040. He named China and Indians (huh?). He is thoroughly forgetting history. History has only rewarded societies that enabled innovation. Countries which had ZERO innovation such as China and India - and just copy stuff WILL NEVER MAKE IT TO THE TOP. History will show, that when India innovated and all the world wanted its products it was at the top, and so was the UK and so is the US. Nothing in the current trend shows the China and India are innovating at world class level.
INDIANS with LIQUIDITY will thrive as an International community similar to Parsis and Jews. INDIA will be the most powerful nuclear capable Islamic State!
This is one thing that I've noticed that when western people speak about history they old go 200 or at max 400 years back while Indians and Chinese discuss history and even geopolitics they will go for thousands and for those well why should they "Duh... They are very new nation's and even the idea of nationhood is pretty new afterall" But ask that to a Indian guy especially because communism killed culture in china you will find them trying to findout about the past and associate with that and learn and they also focus on the rest of world as well But the west is extremely narrow minded in that sense that they just don't indulge anything from outside and that's a very bad idea cause knowledge shall be treated as knowledge irrespective where is it coming from I am not a good writer so I might not have put in good way!!
fast forward to a year later dec2023 and guess what ,china is experiencing ever increasing economic turmoil not to mention declining population. You'd want to rethink your predictions. Probably there's worse to come, sanctions , wars , natural disasters, pandemics etc.
Why not? R u aware of how big and diverse China is? Decades of peaceful and stable growth. Why not praise its government for credits due?having ideological and philosophical differences doesn’t let you take away from their achievements
Whoever predicting things about india does not take into consideration few important elements. Like... By 2049 Indian population will add another 25 crore . Add to that the old undead ones because of better medical availability. So you could be staring at a 25 crore just starting -in -life youngsters and totally non productive sick population of the same size. Why no one is talking about this while predicting and painting rosy picture of the Indian future. We will be falling into the abyss by that time. GDP will certainly increase. In india it is the number game because of the population. Currently india produces 7 lakh tons of human excrement every day which is a handsome amount of 25 crore tons. Just putting things in perspective
Chinese & Indians would never fight , our belives & confucius believes are same .our values are same . We very very different from western philosophies which are very confronting. ( one life Abrahamenic belief to finish all off never to return , no karmic effect , mine is only true beliefs etc). Our any association with western countries are very shallowly connected by capitalism ( from inside no Indian living in west are spritual ly satisfying ) but how long west will be economically superior?? And how long west will rule the world with fiasco dollar and it's military complexes . Only issue with china is that it's ruled by communist which too is western idea. China has accepted capitalism ,now they have to return to their Confucius believe system & western communism is just gone . Very soon China is going to be no longer dependent on west economically, export ( global south is going to replace it) & military. Very soon border issue ( thats only issue) is going to vanish with china . If west dreams of indochina conflict they are living in day dream.
The thing about predictions is that they are "predictions", simply put they are assumptions and assumptions are never facts. Predictions are based on what you have seen and what you are seeing. For example from 1947 to 2013 there were 74 airports constructed in India. From 2014 to 2023 75 airports have been constructed, so if you take the pre 2014 no. Which averages 1 airport an year, somebody making a prediction would think the best India could do may be 3 airports a year(30 airports in 10 years) if they worked really hard. But as it turns out in the last 10 years India constructed 7-8 airports per year.
I think India and Israel will have each other's back .. plus while Israel has some of the smartest people .. there aren't enough of them to form a critical mass ... Judaism and Hinduism aren't proselytizing religions ..and can get along just fine.
Balaji is so silly. Bangalore isn't cleaner than SF. Alot of things he talks w.r.t india are exactly the same as any other developing states. Malaysia, alone, exports more in high-tech exports than all of india....and Malaysia is 43x smaller than india. Yes, that's 4300% smaller!! (I am not talking about overall exports, but only high-tech exports). Ps, india is literally THE worst country in terms of communal rift, religious riots, ethnic conflicts etc. US is no way near close to it. India will become larger bc of its size...but thats about it. On per capita, india will remain far behind real heavy weights like US, China, EU, or Arab/Islamic World etc
Someone pls tell Balaji that China is done, its economy is shrinking, demography is upside down , debt (internal) is all time high. The railway which u talk about so loudly is running at a loss and technically overrated. Chinese military is made out to be a overrated force by western academia. Development of Guangzhou and Shanghai or Beijing remains in the cost. China has lot of problems…. all this will keep China weak.
@@anandsuralkar2947 india may starve or fall into civilwar faster than you can say cow dung at any time in coming years, india can barely carry its own "growth" nevermind the world. We laugh at indian news and i remember as a child discovering indian channel on our satellite dish and how we used to laugh and laugh watching old bollywood movies just to mock how bad they were, i cant imagine but one item in my household purchased from india the last 35 years and that is ink.
