Bayes Theorem and some of the mysteries it has solved

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Federalist Papers: priceonomics.com/how-statisti...
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Опубликовано:

10 мар 2019

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Комментарии : 359

@zachstar 5 лет назад

Hope you guys enjoy! Few things I want to mention. 1) There was A LOT of information with regards to each of these stories and I obviously couldn't include it all, so just note none of this paints the full picture in terms of all the analysis that these people did. 2) Because of that first bullet point, I included sources and references to every story in the description for those who want more information. (I got a lot of info from one book which I linked at the top of the references). 3) Yes I know the video is really about how mysteries were solved with Bayes' theorem.

@StEvUgnIn 5 лет назад

Hi, Mr. Stargensky :)

@zachstar 5 лет назад

Hi Mr Huguenin

@anishnehete 5 лет назад

@MajorPrep bro even u have inspired me to do aerospace engineer,but the seats here in India are limited (for good colleges). You have told me the similarities between mechanical and aerospace and other fields and after watching 20-30 of your vids i finally know what to do in life.thanks for showing me a way👌. Hope u be successful in life.

@realgamer4.12team2 Год назад

The French submarine minerve has been found in 2019

@MrMamanDon 4 года назад

It's fascinating to realize that our brain does this rechecking thing (updating the probability instead of making it zero) automatically and we recheck for our lost keys.

@ViratKohli-jj3wj 3 года назад

Lol XD

@elistidham8494 11 месяцев назад

What?

@U20E0 11 месяцев назад

@@elistidham8494you have a tendency to re-try things despite them having already failed

@e.l.2734 6 месяцев назад

In other areas of life with added layers of biases, we sometimes don't even care to look for the "key" elsewhere at all! To double down on our failures indefinitely for no good reason is meta

@evccrtt1480 5 лет назад

I’m starting to respect statistics instead of hating them Thanks

@Mike1Lawless 5 лет назад

Statistics shouldn't be used as a tool of manipulation to drive ideology. When used properly lives can be saved. With great power to the number comes great responsibility for probability.

@luqcrusher 4 года назад

Mike Law dude what

@spider-man6932 11 месяцев назад

@@Mike1LawlessSpidey math

@eklim2034 2 месяца назад

AI engineers are statisticians too

@pcread 4 года назад

The wreckage of the French submarine Minerve has finally been found about 28 miles off the southern coast of France, near the port of Toulon. July 2019

@toadfrommariokart64 2 года назад

Pog

@astronxmically2817 2 года назад

wow

@ducminhnguyen7835 Год назад

Was found 3 months after this video release. Coincidence?

@ManataxImplosion 4 года назад

Students: why am I even learning this I'm never gonna need it in real situations Teacher:

@Nic7320 4 года назад

Students: "Why am I even learning this? I'm never gonna need it in real situations when flipping burgers at the Dairy Queen." Teacher: "Given they've wanted a burger, what is the probability they also want fries?"

@KruhlSentru 4 года назад

If teachers actually used real world examples, instead of crazy and stupid word problems that no one will ever care about, then students wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the importance of all of these various mathematical equations.

@lakshita1408 2 года назад

@@KruhlSentru exactly

@Harrissarena 2 года назад

Never gonna use this in real life but it’s super interesting. If my teacher showed it to my I would be less likely to pay attention tho or be into it. But because it was my choice to watch the video I find it more intriguing. If that makes sense

@Saki630 5 лет назад

'How to find lost objects with Bayesian Statistics' -- better title.

@Wanderlust1972 5 лет назад

too advanced for this audience

@alleyway 5 лет назад

@@Wanderlust1972 more so that he needs views

@petitio_principii 5 лет назад

Identifying an uncertain author is not a "lost object."

@praveenb9048 4 года назад

"How to get as lucky as possible, using science"

@will2see 3 года назад

I hate titles starting with 'How'.

@salamjames3224 5 лет назад

As an EE student this channel is one of the best channels i use to motivate me to study harder

@praveenb9048 4 года назад

Has someone done a simulation where you compare the best known algorithm with one based on naive intuition, and see how much the success rate improves from using Bayes etc?

@robertbilling6266 5 лет назад

It was interesting to see how Bayes theorem applies in a lot of cases. I've used it myself to help clean up distorted electronic signals by suggesting corrections until the CRCs suddenly test true. BTW Turing is closer than you think. He worked with MV Wilkes after the war, and in the 70s I was one of Wilkes last students before he retired.

@pavelmasterov8053 5 лет назад

Great examples of real life applications of some mathematical statistics mechanics. Very insightful!

@Harrissarena 2 года назад

Yes I believe if you’re going into a STEM career then math class would teach you many real life applications because the person working to find the lost things are mathematicians. Me, personally will never be able to use this. Maybe in a vague way but not with big numbers,.. well maybe with google and a calculator I could. Ha. Take that math teacher. Regardless if I’ll ever actually use this theory down the road I still find it very intriguing

@wangzisworks 3 года назад

Me, taking AP Calc, as well as planning on taking AP stats next year: “let me watch a bunch of fun math videos for hours on end” *the federalist papers* Me also taking APUSH: no.. please no

@aniketeuler6443 3 года назад

This channel always changes my perspective towards mathematics and makes my interest in it

@robertschlesinger1342 4 года назад

Excellent overview of some special applications of Bayes Theorem and Bayesian methods. Many thanks for the links to relevant sources.

@xyzxyzuvwuvw7633 5 лет назад

you always put out the most fascinating uses of maths

@N0URii 5 лет назад

you makes math topics so fascinating and fun i relize how important statistics and probability is

@prashantpareek5863 5 лет назад

You deserve at least a million subscribers. Keep it up brother.

@nathangraber8447 Год назад

That probability tree you just showed is AWESOME!!!! I haven't got to Prob and Stats yet, and have only really messed around with online lectures, but I haven't seen anyone visually organize probability like that before. Thank you for showing me something new!

@sudhirdeshpande5522 5 лет назад

I LOVE these statistics videos please keep making them ♥

@elizafischer7229 2 года назад

This is great! I saw your comedy videos before discovering the informational ones and I think it's so impressive that you're so smart and funny

@januszgzdacz7093 5 лет назад

Next person who forget about Henryk Zygalski, Jerzy Różycki and Marian Rejewski and their huge contribution to unraweling enigma's code. :'(

@thevalar2207 5 лет назад

Yep :(

@skulleeman 5 лет назад

Good balance of educational and entertainment elements

@SAlam-bo3ww 5 лет назад

I love your videos! Please keep on!

@bbsonjohn 5 лет назад

From 0:00-2:02, I thought the whole thing was amateur and the video was a clickbait. At 2:03 and on, it just escalated too quickly. lol

@R41Ryan 5 лет назад

Yeah. Some things just flew over my head when I watched this. I might watch this again in the future just to better understand the math behind this stuff.

@ethanboss3348 5 лет назад

That is a really good transition into the sponsor. Props to you

@TheLastCrankers 4 года назад

damn, I haven't been this interested in science and math for a long time even though *this* is technically my field, great work!

@arnaldosandoval453 5 лет назад

Suddenly, John's search reminded me of: schrödinger's cat

@ryuk3950 5 лет назад

Found this channel yesterday and it is already one of my best.

@aog3367 Год назад

Wow!,understanding bayes theorem like this is soo cool ,wish they did this in school

@Anonimowany1 4 года назад

Man I loved these probability topics in my school classes. Its really cool to know all the mathematics behind it, seeing how adults hype these mathematics so much later on in life lol.

@gustavgadehebsgaard5727 3 года назад

Now, I'm gonna think of Bayes theorem everytime that line in non-stop comes up.

@trewq398 4 года назад

Your videos are really addicting.

@spicemasterii6775 4 года назад

Fantastic video. Thank you

@AbhayNayak 3 года назад

These stories are so interesting

@nexninja1479 5 лет назад

Woah I just found your channel and wow am I amazed, looking forward to your uploads..

@mackhomie6 2 года назад

I had no idea this existed. Love it.

@camozot 5 лет назад

This vid was incredibly well done! Bayesian statistics ftw 💪💪

@crystalayala3336 4 месяца назад

I watch your videos whenever I feel defeated by math. Thanks for the awesome content!

@jaspaw.5473 5 лет назад

Nice Video! Could u please do a video on Computational Mathematics?

@dangiscongrataway2365 5 лет назад

Learning bayesian statistics is on my goal list now, thanks.

@khazual832 5 лет назад

What formula do you recommend using, if I wanted to solve the mystery of the missing mysteries in this video?

@achintya-7 3 года назад

After studying Naive Bayes theorem, this video hit home for me

@lFreakey 4 года назад

Just discovered your channel, and to be honest, you have raised my interest in math more than thirteen years of continuous education. Keep the awesome videos up, thanks man! :)

@LuisOrtiz-dn1jj 5 лет назад

Never clicked that fast!!

@quintiax 4 года назад

The Minerve has now been found, after around 3 months since you released the video!

@isaamthalhath4359 5 лет назад

One of these mysteries is my physics assignment

@pepperonisalad2304 5 лет назад

Bro, I really enjoyed this video! I like all your videos, but this one really captured my attention. Thank you.

@diegolazareno8020 5 лет назад

You should talk about Financial Engineering. This field is related to data science, machine learning, stochastic procceses and econometrics.

@waqarahmed4200 5 лет назад

quality content 😍

@jackbechtel1130 4 года назад

i learned this in ap statistics and its actually insane to me that you can use this to save people’s lives

@YouAdrianziom 4 года назад

It still makes me sad how the work of Polish mathematicians is overlooked in terms of breaking the enigma code

@00bean00 2 года назад

Quick! To the Numberphile!

@alangrant5278 Год назад

The best chance of being found is … wearing a personal locator emergency beacon attached to your life jacket so the coastguard gets your gps locating the minute you active it and continuously as you drift. Some Epirbs automatically trigger when in water.

@Brandon-a-writer 4 года назад

would love to see some vids on the central limit theorem. i spent years on it with one 50 page book i found on amazon. fascinating.

@xyfurion 5 лет назад

I have a probability final tomorrow and forgot about Baye's theorem. Thanks!

@particleman5893 2 года назад

Bayes'*

@shaylempert9994 5 лет назад

I hope the statisticians in the hamilton/madison case extracted the word frequency from "training data" and tested it on "testing data" or in other words - papers that their word frequency wasn't part of the model training process. If not, the testing process could be flawed and prone to "overfitting".

@Krish_krish 5 лет назад

Hi, could you do a video comparing engineering degrees in USA universities compared to UK universities?

@anmolpardeshi3138 10 месяцев назад

just excellent! This is very interesting! The only edit is: you shifted from 2009 Air France to submarines by saying "2 years after this in 1968" ... time travel lol. But kudos to this video!

@vishwajeettripathi3840 5 лет назад

Nice video you got there :)

@natnaeltadu 5 лет назад

RIP for those 33 guys who disliked this video.

@LaplacianFourier Год назад

I heard Bayes Theorem has helped with a lot of scientific discoveries. Can you do part 2 focusing on that aspect?

@moumous87 5 лет назад

When you say “Bayesian” it sounds like “Beijing” 😂😂😂

@jinjunliu2401 4 года назад

ew who pronounces Bei"ch"ing like Bayesian

@ShwetankT 4 года назад

That B in Beijing is more like P of English

@ChrisContin Год назад

Statistics is the study of effects on our most intuitive outcome. The most logical manner of finding a missing person at sea is to assume they’ve perished (probably) then calculate the likely way to save them: run a rescue, improve grid survivability, or another means! People would realize the helicopter is not the likeliest solution! Use a ship that has sea-penetrating radar, and sees the ocean surface from below: 99% likelihood of being found dead/alive!

@justarandommusicchannel1394 11 месяцев назад

im about to start my college in cse with speacialisation in data science and probability, statistics and linear algebra r crucial parts of the course so thanx for this video

@pomegranatechannel 5 лет назад

Sadly none of these could help with the Malaysia Airlines flight #370 case in 2014 (which was I think the most expensive search and rescue mission).

@SoulDelSol 5 лет назад

That's cuz that's under water

@raymondfrye5017 4 года назад

I have news for you. While you were looking out to the Indian Ocean for #370 the real event was that Ukrainian rebels backed by the CIA shot down a civilian airliner. The resulting news blitz would have embarassed the US. So the CIA created a news diversionary tactic.

@grassytramtracks 10 месяцев назад

@@SoulDelSolAir France 447 was also under water, but with MH370, the area where the plane could have gone down is so huge

@GETURHANDSUP916 5 лет назад

Baye's Theorem always stumped me on exams.

@redredwine1277 5 лет назад

Thanks, amazing what math can do👍🏽

@Scarpster 5 лет назад

Incredible!

@randomuser5443 5 лет назад

Got to say, math is awesome

@martindupuy2071 5 лет назад

Lovely channel

@micahwright6008 5 лет назад

Probably a huge factor would be the fact that what they are looking for is not necessarily remaining in the same place. People can swim away from the high probability places or could actually swim into the high probability area-- this begs a larger question. Should you stay in place when lost (on land or water) or should you move? What can you do to know what decision is best?

@spitalhelles3380 4 года назад

Imagine being a hypochondric mathematician. constantly calculating the probability that you have some rare disease based on your symptoms. yes. I described myself

@user-hc4wi9ks9r 4 года назад

Chronic hypochondrism. 100%. Get well! :)

@spitalhelles3380 4 года назад

@@user-hc4wi9ks9r thank yoou

@neskhymontoya2096 4 года назад

Mr. Zach, Coleage, It's hilarious that I've been born and raised in Central America and currently living here and I've never heard of that journey for that treasure. But it's interesting.

@the8rbuf 4 года назад

Ship of Gold in the Deep Blue Sea is a great novel about the whole adventure of locating and seizing the treasure from 9000 ft of water around a hundred miles out to sea. It reads like a detective story, a Clive Cussler adventure and a tribute to science, with a hundred and fifty year old survival romance in the flashbacks to the wrecking. I highly recommend it.

@tuxino 4 года назад

The method you described for finding out who wrote the Federalist Papers is essentially the same as used in many spam filters today.

@nirv2796 5 лет назад

How do you calculate the initial probabilities to put into the formula tho

@va5t680 5 лет назад

Nice video

@anteconfig5391 4 года назад

I used to hate probabilities. I still kind of do but after much practice and also seeing possible applications of the maths has given my a greater appreciation for probability theory. I guess now I can actually say I have a love-hate relationship with it.

@SoulDelSol 5 лет назад

So they just figured out where he would be (behind ship) and swept it. That's kinda common sense or am i missing something?

@artallen2860 4 года назад

SAROPS including the first case does not assume that the person lost overboard remains stationary, but moves with the currents and also by a portion of the wind or its leeway factor. SAROPS also doesn’t work at the grid level, but updates the probabilities for each particle. See my illustration at 1:25 of this video.

@nemtudom5074 Год назад

13:28 Excellent movie! Would highly recommend even if you're not into math

@TurdFurgeson571 2 года назад

This is why it's best to stay put. By the time you're thinking about how to rescue yourself, you have been thinking about it for the length of time you've been downed, lost, or injured. Whereas, people who do this for a living have been thinking about how to rescue you for the length of their careers, standing on hundreds of years of geniuses.

@justyourregularboyscout9613 5 лет назад

Can you do Engineering Physics video?

@MrMZaccone 2 года назад

The most important fact about the enigma machine was that it was incapable of encrypting a character as itself. This eliminates a significant number of settings.

@petitio_principii 5 лет назад

I imagine that one could probably tweak this method of assessing the real author of a text in order to create an accurate forgery as well. To edit the forgery drafts until it gives the acceptable probability.

@iulian248 4 года назад

Nowadays we would use a neural network for this. There are too many criteria to immitate to create a perfect forgery, some of those criteria cannot be realized by human minds, but AI's may notice them.

@gusthekidaz9808 2 года назад

Fun fact, the team that found the scorpion also found the Titanic wreck on the same trip, the algorithm saved them so much time looking for the sub, they used the extra time to find the ship If dreams

@TheBaldr 4 года назад

Both the USS Scorpion and K-129 wreck locations were part of secret Navy missions in the 1970s and 1980s. The first and probably most well known is Project Azorian, where the navy tried to raise the wreckage of K-129. The official stance is that they were only able to raise a small portion of the wreckage. Unofficially they got to the site and realized the hull of the sub was already in two pieces, the were able to raise the larger two thirds of the sub although this was never officially confirmed and still remains top secret. The other involved Robert Ballard's famous Titanic expedition... In reality the expedition was funded by the navy to explore the wrecks of the USS Scorpion and USS Thresher, what ever time Ballard had left over he could look for the Titanic, which he found.

@dharmanshah1239 5 лет назад

Now as you are making videos on probability and statistics next in line should be data science.

@zachstar 5 лет назад

That actually is something I've been wanting to get.

@pravatyadav3623 5 лет назад

Use of stats in data science

@iirazor1086 4 года назад

That smooth sponser transition lmao

@avivfrai4858 5 лет назад

almost as smooth as polymatter, damn.

@jaybingham3711 5 лет назад

That there existed a significant probability of a human operator who would consistently fail to adhere to the proper use of Enigma I guess could be tied to math. Fortunately, such a weak link was found and exploited. Had all usage adhered to protocol (or something close to ideal usage) things likely would have turned out substantially different.

@sethdon1100 2 года назад

9:02 the Minerve submarine was found a few months after this video was released.

@afounlaid8667 3 года назад

This is the kind of learning i always wanted, i am always curious about applications of math i studied. Can you seggest me some books that use the same way of interpretation please ??

@dt28469 5 лет назад

What about that one guy in WWI that calculated the exact location of enemy fire across the trenches by triangulating the seismic rumble of mortar fire using pen and paper mathematics and an elaborate setup of makeshift seismometers?

@claudeyaz 5 лет назад

Or how statistics can be interpreted wrong. Like how once hard helmets were introduced in ww1. Brain injuries increased. Because before helmets they would result in death instead of injuries. But those stats could have been used wrong by people to support NOT using helmets

@fabiozaccarini6762 Год назад

It would be interesting to know if the search team in Australia searching for the caesium capsule used bayesian statistics

@bryangohmppac6417 5 лет назад

Sir, do you know what book to study this kind of statistics and probability??

@quinguyentat227 5 лет назад

Bryan Goh or online course as well

@duckymomo7935 5 лет назад

Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R and BUGS You can access his site too Bayesian Data Analysis by Gelman Look up anything on Bayesian statistics

@bryangohmppac6417 5 лет назад

If from basic to advanced statistics and probabilty??

@bryangohmppac6417 5 лет назад

If from basic to advanced statistics and probabilty??

@fahimchowdhury4477 3 года назад

As you said system superimpose a grid over the ocean map and assigned each square a probability. To do that we need to use probability and statistics. But if i want to do that what things do I need to learn? Do I need to have strong knowledge on Bayesian statistics? What are the math behind all these?

@sandeshpokhrel22 5 лет назад

From where do you learn this kind of mathematics used in daily life, from which resources, i would love to learn from the sources you learn from, would you mind sharing some sources?