Zanny Minton Beddoes, The Economist Editor-in-Chief explains why China's economy is not in "good shape." She says most sectors in China are uninvestable for foreigners.
Many comments furious. But if you read the title and ask yourselves what is needed for investment? The answer is quite simple. Stability, rule of law, freedom of capital. Up to you folks.
Also, expectation of more profitability there than in alternative opportunities. China doesn't just need to present itself as a stable place that will not have government interference in your investment, but also as a better investment than other Asian emerging markets. If you're setting up a new factory line why go to China when you can go to India or Vietnam and have significantly cheaper labor, and less political vulnerability in the event of a war or trade war. If you want to invest in the largest Asian market (by population) that's no longer China--that's India and its forecasted to have much better growth too (at least in the short term) than China. If you want the Asian financial market hub that's no longer Hong Kong. International finance in Asia is increasingly moving to Singapore because of the government instability in Hong Kong and friendly lack of regulation (and low tax rate) set up by Singapore.
Question is, how long can China keep these foreign companies in the face of what Ms. Bedoes was pointing to? Even moderately successful Chinese firms who have made inroads into the US market like Hisense have now setup shop on the Mexican side of the US-Mexico border. Now, what can you expect from foreign firms when Chinese companies themselves are busy making a beeline to set up shop in other countries. @thetjt
@@alquinnpantilagan8293 Belt and Road Initiatives aims for Chinese Firms to expand oversea. Chinese are to circumvent to tackle problems and resolve issue. How China get 7.1% export growth year on year in combined Jan and Feb 2024 ? Hard facts to disappoint the West and many include you @alquinnpantilagan8293
As an American business man who have been to china several times, i am always amused at the American hatred for china and our 40 years of china economic collapse ever 6 months. It is getting boring as my fellow Americans living in china are saying.The chinese people think it is funny. THE PROBLEM WITH THE WEST WE BELIEVE THAT THEIR IS ONLY ONE WAY TO RUN A NATION AND ECONOMY. AND THATS THE WESTERN WAY. The chinese economy is a people first economy. China is a socialist nation where the goal of the government is the economic well-being of the chinese people. COMMON PROSPERITY. just because china is doing something different does no mean they are failing. This is the fatal flaw in western thinking.
I think it’s game over for the west unless they can perfect AGI. the Chinese are currently at the forefront of technology in mining, EVs, quantum computing, graphene materials, wireless communication etc. recently Chinese scientists even are researching how to detect the US Navy’s nuclear subs based on the cavitation bubbles popping. They can pick up the signature through the electromagnetic spectrum.
to be honest I think chinese people should be grateful to "experts" like these. without such experts, China will be facing real competition from the U$, but now with such warped view and prediction of "China collapse", U$ policies of containment, sanctions, propaganda and the enormous hatred of all things chinese.....U$ is on a trajectory into the abyss. God bless America's idiocracy!
@@Djamonja China literally lied about its GDP for decades, and The Economist took their word for it. Now, a lot of business investors (real economists) are using alternative methods to guess China's real GDP and it doesn't look good.
Even the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang himself didn’t believe their own GDP data. Instead he would look at data from the railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks.
True , but FYI - LKQ was not all an impressive person to say the least ... As a provincial governor, he never created values for any place he stayed at (he was part of the problem not the solution). Using LKQ as a standard maybe too low a bar :) No Economist will use four simple factors to analyze a country the size of China.
@@titusp9488 LKQ was not impressive that’s true, but that’s just shows you how crap and corrupt the CCP really is, and LKQ was a more of a down to earth guy who didn’t create phony values by borrowing massively and propping up GDP figures with useless infrastructure and property projects like the rest of his corrupt CCP comrades did.
25 years ago when I was in high school, I read an article in Economist, it said China was collapsing. Clearly that didn’t happen. 25 years on, still the same tone, let’s see if they can have some credibility this time. 😂
This woman listened to all the talking points presented by Bloomberg over the past week and came on to feed them back to them. Not only are there press conferences after the NPC, we're being flooded with press conferences of ministers and technocrats. Who cares if the premier isn't the one who answers the questions?
When did China have no problems? Have they ever handled their problems? In Western media every problem in China is a unsolvable one, which could lead to crisis, which would become disasters.
These liberal commentators are delusional. Truly embarrassing, given their poor track record. These are the same people who touted globalization for decades despite the warnings, and called anyone who disagreed with them "racists".
Exactly. China is the largest market in the world. If you stay out of investing in China, you will lose in the end. It’s interesting that now China is setting the standards for the world such as in, 5G 6G, EV, AI, quantum computing, even life sciences. We in the west risk falling behind by not cooperating with China. In medical devices, China could leapfrog the USA.
You probably don’t know there is now a 7 volume 27 book series on what the Chinese invented 👇 Why was China erased from Western memory The remarkable history of Chinese invention - Why was China erased from Western memory? Article by 龙信明 Introduction Joseph Needham was an English medical doctor and biologist, teaching in England in the 1930s. By an accident of fate he acquired some Chinese students, and was intrigued to hear their claims of so many medical and scientific discoveries having originated in China, rather than in the West. Needham became fully fluent in Chinese, and eventually moved to China in 1942 to investigate these claims and to research the entire history of Chinese invention. That work led to an astonishing voyage of historical discovery. Needham originally planned to write a book cataloguing Chinese inventions, but his first volume barely scratched the surface of his subject. He slowly gatherred many of his students into this enterprise, and they eventually wrote a collection of 26 books, to catalog the history of Chinese discovery. Myth and Misrepresentation It leaves one speechless to learn the vast extent of things invented by the Chinese many hundreds of years, and often several millennia, before they appeared in the West. MySingaporeBlogSpot
It does not matter how good or bad the Chinese economy will do because of the geopolitical conflict between China and the west China is uninvestable to westerners.
For China what was most important was to reign in their overheated real estate market. Which after 14 years they finally did it Loads of FDI from the outside world would create overheating markets again Plus they have so many tools 3 trillion in FX reserves (estimated another 3 trillion hidden reserves ) Hidden Gold reserves 2 times the size of the USA. The ability to make and hide internal debt. And low external debt amount they can borrow on etc etc Plus “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” just got burnt by buying the Junk Bonds of Chinese Property Developers But with that said yes Chinese stock market has no market makers where 85% of the trades are done by retail mom and pops where 67% have less than a high school graduation. 81% trade once a month That should tell anyone that their bear markets will get oversold and their bull markets overbought
For the west it’s about China closing itself off to them especially the USA It not about trade deficits because we in the west tend to consume more than we produce So we trade with XYZ country we will have trade deficit with them Our western countries /multinational corporations want more or better access to Chinese domestic markets, even though in 2018 when trump started his trade war just US multinationals based in China alone and their subsidiaries, had 392 billion in sales for their goods and services in China In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities Which their Government in 2010 started to crackdown on this speculation Which our western 1%ters and their multinational corporations don’t like They wanted those overheated real estate markets. They want those Chinese buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now Even though there is a few hundred million less well off rural folks, who they are expecting to migrate to the cities where they can’t find affordable housing as Property Developers build higher end homes that make them more money That’s because our western 1%ters and their multinational corporations want to be the ones loaning out that money for those homes getting at those high Chinese saving's getting them to spend them on their goods and services and then borrowing to spend some more like they did to us (although we played our part) 👇 Project Syndicate The value of global China China faces important questions about whether and to what extent it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world, write Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong in Project Syndicate. In any case, China and the world face important questions about the trajectory of their mutual engagement. At stake, according to our simulation, may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value - or 15-26% of world GDP - by 2040. McKinsey
China knows there will be no mercy from the US. The confrontation will only get worse. They're building their own geostrategical sphere. It's the biggest challenge for western dominance. So far the wests policy hasn't made it many friends globally.
For China what was most important was to reign in their overheated real estate market. Which after 14 years they finally did it Loads of FDI from the outside world would create overheating markets again Plus they have so many tools 3 trillion in FX reserves (estimated another 3 trillion hidden reserves ) Hidden Gold reserves 2 times the size of the USA. The ability to make and hide internal debt. And low external debt amount they can borrow on etc etc Plus “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” just got burnt by buying the Junk Bonds of Chinese Property Developers But with that said yes Chinese stock market has no market makers where 85% of the trades are done by retail mom and pops where 67% have less than a high school graduation. 81% trade once a month That should tell anyone that their bear markets will get oversold and their bull markets overbought
Last I checked, investors have total freedom to withdraw from any and all Chinese markets, just like some U$ and German corporations have done, and have therefore completely self isolated themselves from enormous consumption market of China just like what they did in Russia a complete withdrawal and as a result Germany is now in recession, in fact the only EU state with negative growth!!! The beauty is, China will not be stopping any FDI to leave nor will there be any foreign intervention or coup de tat, unlike U$A.
Without Bloomberg I never know this editor-in-Chief. Few people read The Economist nowadays and soon it will become unreadable. China Bad headlines are difficult to catch reader's eyeballs. You need to say "China Good" to make a buzz.
No wonder the brand quality becomes very generic by listening to the boss.. She doesn't need every detail to slice the macro headwinds besides the debts. They actually gave more talking points this time esp the capital restructures and that's a very important indicator before the bazooka stimulus. She even compared it to Japan malaise.. first of all Japan island is incredibly limited for massive immigration nor high value natural resources. She sounds more frustrated than just having concerns as Economist
For China what was most important was to reign in their overheated real estate market. Which after 14 years they finally did it Loads of FDI from the outside world would create overheating markets again Plus they have so many tools 3 trillion in FX reserves (estimated another 3 trillion hidden reserves ) Hidden Gold reserves 2 times the size of the USA. The ability to make and hide internal debt. And low external debt amount they can borrow on etc etc Plus “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” just got burnt by buying the Junk Bonds of Chinese Property Developers But with that said yes Chinese stock market has no market makers where 85% of the trades are done by retail mom and pops where 67% have less than a high school graduation. 81% trade once a month That should tell anyone that their bear markets will get oversold and their bull markets overbought
China could have used that option in the trade war but they didn’t What most people don’t get? Is it is US multinationals making the lion share of those profits inflating the trade deficit between China to the USA Where Chinese companies trade with their Belt and Road country partners These IS multinationals are also using illegal labour from South East Asia. Or more and more automation in their wholly owned factories in China These are the same companies who got those trump tax cuts you for sure cheered about Same companies based in China who derived 392 billion in sales in Chinese domestic markets in 2018 when trump started his trade war Same companies whose high flying stocks are in your 401k/Pensions Same companies who the American farmer and consumer were sacrificing so they could get more or better access into those Chinese Domestic markets Why didn’t China pull the nuclear option and boot these companies you might ask? They don’t believe in a zero sum game type of thinking As I can show you during the trade war. China. didn’t pull out their big trade weapons 👇 Trump’s ‘trade war’ with China won’t be so easy to win Having learned these value chain lessons, Beijing has worked hard to bring more of the high-value-adding parts of value chains into China, and to build hi-tech industries in which it can establish a globally competitive position. China has successfully done this in areas like high-speed trains (CRRC), digital telecoms networks (Huawei), drones (DJI) and hi-tech batteries (BYD). Trump’s team is not wrong to be worried about China’s competitive emergence here, and to target these new-tech sectors in the latest trade war sortie.But here’s the problem: China exports almost none of these new-tech products to the US, making US tariff threats meaningless. Rather, they go to developing economy markets - many embraced by the Belt and Road initiative - where China has succeeded in building a hi-tech, high-value brand reputation. As Trump’s team will quickly learn, the challenge of finding China’s pain points is bigger than expected: for a decade China’s priority has been to base growth on the domestic consumer economy and reduce reliance on the low-value-adding export processing industries (many of which are US- or Hong Kong-owned and concentrated in the Pearl River Delta) SCMP
Well, that will happen in any nation when you get your ass involved in a war that doesn't belong to you. If China attacks Taiwan, then no need to do anything funny and your investment will be safe.
LOL you must have missed the U$ memo, it was U$ who ordered the withdrawal of all western corporations from Russia as part of U$ unilateral sanctions. Secondly China does not need to invade Taiwan, you can't invade your own province dear. Do read some history will ya!
1/3 of corporation earnings in china are from US, 1/3 are from locals, 1/3 are from rest of the worlds, told by an economic expert "China is Uninvestable for Outsiders" is clearly false
Even Chinese are not investing in China. US and Japan ETFs have been extremely popular in China since 2023. While stupid money from middle east is going to China, smart money is exiting China, going into US and Japan.
Dumb money would be going to overvalued US stocks now. Or short-term gambling money. Japan, well it's ok priced but in recession... let's see how long the momentum lasts. China, very negative international sentiment, pushed by US institutions - the reason being that China will quite likely become world's biggest economy in coming years, already is that by PPP GDP. In any case China is the largest trading partner for 120/195 countries and techological leader in the world. Should be a great long term investment.
@@thetjtI’m in China right now and even Chinese people are reluctant to invest. Where exactly should a Chinese person invest their money now? Should they buy a house that’s going to lose value? Should they invest in the stock market which has shown literally no growth in the past decade?
From what Beddoes’s talk, she really does have any clue on China even she claimed she goes to China often. The foreign investment from $300 billion in 2022 down to 33 billion in 2023 is completely wrong.
as they say, it is a tragedy that she had gone to China often and not learnt one single thing, with economic "experts" like these, U$ doesn't stand a chance.
China is uninvestible for most outsiders, it's a specialty play for insiders and a _speculative_ play for outsiders who can afford to lose their investment.
that chart should have "" over real or communist governments reported GDP too. there are too many studies and reports on how inflated GDP figures are in the end.
The Chinese numbers have been honest for the past 40 s0me years. American universities trained Chinese macro-economists for China. They are the best and they are working in Chinese government--according to Allen Greenspan.@@wesleysanders8570
You can't just focus on the economy without looking at the political environment... Today's Chinese political power structure is very strict and anti-West so good luck with that
@Mapletibitz yes, before China had term limits on its top leadership. now there is no term limit on Xi. before the Chinese courts published their decisions online and the public can monitor them. Now this is blocked. Before private organizations can directly provide donations and aide to the poor. now they must give their collections to the government for redistribution. these are just some of the political and legal changed that's making China's political environment worse for its people and foreign investors, not to mention the laws that are branding foreigners as spies or 'walking 500thousands'
@@peterliu5612 actually it's completely accurate and factual. The CPC are openly trying to undermine the world order since WW2 and revise it with their socialist ideology. This is in the CPC's own publications. Not only that, CPC ruled China is seeking to gain the most powerful military in the world by 2049 to reinforce their global domination. This is also the reason for many of their efforts to use bribes, subversion, blackmail, false promises of investment to gain influence with Global South countries to support their agenda.
@@smdanny1 I'm sure you're misleading. Spy Suspicions don't Point to Foreigners, generally refers to Chinese Taiwanese, Taiwan's network navy is legal, they even have an army specializing in the destruction of Internet public opinion in mainland China, called 1450. I suspect you're one of the 1450s.
This is true even for investors from Hong Kong.The competition and thin margin are just too difficult. But, If you could make it there, you would make it anywhere in the world.
Look after the corporations, like multimillion dollars salaries to CEOs, shareholders or look after the working people so they can afford food, medicine and housing. They are both mutually exclusive.
This woman isn’t telling the entire picture. Xīngbākè ( Starbucks China ) has literally conquered the Chinese market. They’re everywhere on almost every street corner. Benz, VW, BMW, Porsche, maccas are highly visible as well. On a side note. Was in Shanghai for around a year. The city is extremely clean and safe, affordable food and public transportation, state of the art infrastructure and no trash. The locals are very similar to the Japanese.
I agree with most of what you said. However I did not find it very affordable from a local perspective. And you must have been to a different Japan or a different Shanghai 😅
@@henningk.4236 really? I often used er-li-ma ( the blue E app ). Used to get a healthy salad and beef slices for under 30RMB. Lots of local restaurants even cheaper. Yea man, the locals were very friendly to me. Gave me free stuff which is a plus. Stayed mostly in Jing’an.
Chinese 🇨🇳 property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing. - Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down. - Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades. - Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019. - Consumer prices are experiencing deflation. - Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record. - Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries. *Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol Where does the growth come from?
Even though China is investing trillions into its belt and road parter countries? It still has a 800 billion a year trade surplus with the world Even though their Central Government is cracking down in real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people have added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 - Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
👇 I look at it this way. China is trying to curb investment speculation. With Covid, trade war, Ukraine war, Countries going in recession and a worldwide slowdown and But we are only seeing these types of drops in 1st tier cities below👇 China is going to need way more stronger measures like a nation wide property tax. Even higher taxes in 1st tier cities Where the 1st tier cities go the other cities will follow, To me they need that “capitulation” in property prices The way they are going they are not even close to their common prosperity goal 👇 New home prices in Beijing and Shanghai rose 1.3% and 4.2%, respectively, in January on a year-over-year basis. That was offset by drops in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, two southern cities, where prices fell 3.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Secondhand home prices fell in all four major cities by between 3.7% and 6.1%. WSJ
We are amazed that some people are able to openly lie, without showing any signs of lying on their face. Guaranteed that has something to do with the genes/DNA.
there is a phenomenon in the U$, "if you believe the lie, then it is no longer a lie". Such "experts" truly believe that U$ is advancing, winning, zero inflation or transitory, and every thing is fine and dandy!! LMAO
Time will change absolutely nothing. If and when China operates differently and conditions improve, China will become investable. This video will always have been true.
@@theonlycaulfield China's property market hasn't aged well for speculators. For people who are looking for a good house it's working well. Which is how it should be.
@@singed8853 China doesn't have any obligation for speculators. It has a duty for their citizen who are looking for a good living to provide affordable housing. Property market is something their try to get away from and target the growth of their new productive forces(tech sector).
@@lhgrandgtr4778 I don’t see the relevance of what chinas obligations are or aren’t to the topic of your original post. China is unreliable to foreign investors. Just a simple fact stated here. It doesn’t really matter why. In my view the country is now paying the price for its policies towards outside investment. The country is in a recession partly because they couldn’t entice enough investors to continue buying debt on flailing ventures such as evergrande. If you think this is good for China - great - but that’s not anything to do with the discussion in the video. The conclusion is correct and doesn’t become incorrect retroactively after circumstances potentially change.
The question that autocrats think about is that it is good to balance economic growth and political security, but if they can only choose one, they will definitely choose the latter, because losing the economy is a long-term problem, but losing political security will make them lose their heads.
she even said President Xi is "economically illiterate"...Doing foundational work in this critical period has a short-term price to pay of course, but the true strength will be reflected in the long term
Saudi Arabia had decided to invest in the East, particularly focusing China due to bold and innovative tech there. Furthermore Saudi stops investment in USA and Europe.
Saudi Arabia is not stupid. Unless China decides to commit a few Naval assets to the Red Sea they will hedge their bets….where IS that carrier when you need it?
Saudi had turned to the East for trade and investment for three years already, way before conflict in the Middle East. BTW leader of Saudi is looking for long-term and decade later and far ahead of the vison-less and brain-less leader of USA.
Well, no, the middle East has realized that only the United States can guarantee security in the region whereas China cooperates just as much with the Iranian regime vis-à-vis the Russian war machine. This means China is only interested in the hydrocarbons, once those go away, China would dbl down on Iranian crude and throw the Saudis under the bus.
The difference between prediction and fact is in the numbers. And the annual numbers never show that there will be an economic apocalypse there. The main problem is the ecosystem: in China almost all supporting industries to produce anything are already available, there is no need to import a lot of this and that from other countries to produce goods in China. This is why, all doom scenarios over China will be wrong. In fact, in the context of technology-intensive industries, China is just starting to develop to a stage that will increasingly surprise old industrialist countries.
What's the big deal? Local Chinese companies are getting more competitive and strongarming into businesses where western companies used to dominate in China.
For China what was most important was to reign in their overheated real estate market. Which after 14 years they finally did it Loads of FDI from the outside world would create overheating markets again Plus they have so many tools 3 trillion in FX reserves (estimated another 3 trillion hidden reserves ) Hidden Gold reserves 2 times the size of the USA. The ability to make and hide internal debt. And low external debt amount they can borrow on etc etc Plus “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” just got burnt by buying the Junk Bonds of Chinese Property Developers But with that said yes Chinese stock market has no market makers where 85% of the trades are done by retail mom and pops where 67% have less than a high school graduation. 81% trade once a month That should tell anyone that their bear markets will get oversold and their bull markets overbought
@@adhamhalim2928 I have to be honest with you, China's high speed growth is over and the industries such as the real estate soaring up in the past decades will no long embrace the prime time like they used to be. China is now going through some of the upgrades in its economic pattern so there are some disturbances or even turmoils in some areas. except that, life is pretty normal as usual. eat, sleep, work and travel pretty much like the old days.
I live in China. Everything is miserable here, but no one dares to complain. Seriously if there is next life, I wish to be born in any other country, except China.
In any other country? China is not the best country but it's not the worst. Take a look at countries like Haiti or Afghanistan, for example. Now seriously, there IS a next life. Have you heard of the most influential person in history - Jesus Christ? If what this person taught is true (with evidence and reason), then there is a next life!
Even though China is investing trillions into its belt and road parter countries? It still has a 800 billion a year trade surplus with the world Even though their Central Government is cracking down in real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people have added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 - Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
China has always been relying on domestic investment. Foreign investment is a bit foreign for China which will lead to many problems and misunderstanding.
Chinese version of Industrial Revolution is over and now they’re plateauing. No shame in that… it’s a modern economy now. You want huge growth? Look to Vietnam or some place where production has shifted to.
@@dennislouis6069 Very true small island are getting worse than before thou into the modern world of technology. Singapore investment billion in the past suzhou industrial park n the tianjin ecopark that have losed billions that probably are unable to recoup back that might have caused our local breed Singaporean whole-life hard-earned stressed n sweat c p f money not able to return sooner worst keep changing retirement limit n dragging withdrawal date till all pass away also cannot touch their own hard-earned stressed money. Yet our small island population leaders are the world highest paid salary compared to many big countries leaders
When all your own kind has no hope or future and in a mess, you like to condemn someone else who has. She looks pretty desperate trying to convince herself that. 😮
China 🇨🇳 has been a money-printing machine on overdrive. During the years 1990-2021, the US printed 6.5 times more money while China printed 147 times. - It has printed more money than the US and Japan combined, while its economy is only half of them. - Current Chinese debt-to-gdp is already *highest in the world, at 300%,* according to Bloomberg. - With stimulus and measures, China's debt will be at 400% to 500% of its GDP in the next decade, according to Reuters.
Yes, way more printing and way more debt while dealing with demographic issues, the cult of personality around xi and pissing off neighbors. The US has huge problems but… china is way worse
u economic illiterate! that is called base currency effect. Ch!na being paid for trillion of USD for purchasing ch!na (chine-an not chinese) goods, to balance the book ,CCB must print CNY to exchange USD r given by foreign companies so they can buy goods in china. Pure hate speech and misinformation is disgusting
Did most in the west also say Japan was uninvestable in the early 90s? Or the word uninvestable is only used on China? It s certainly ok for speculation but investing for the long run only really works well in US markets. So it sounds kind of silly to single out China when in fact most stock markets actually go side ways for decades too. FTSE 100 was at 6165 in 2000, and it s only at 7659 in 2024 ! How many economists have been arguing that British stock market is uninvestable?
The main difference between China and Japan is that Japan was not ruled by an authoritarian dictator who was obsessed with the consolidation of power at the expense of fertilization of capitalism.
@@randomwalker2134 You just admit that your preference for western political ideology somehow theoretically justified buying Japanese stocks in the 90s. You have more than 3 decades of hindsight and you still think the stock market in a supposed democracy should always outperform a country like China, when in fact they are both going sideways.
US has also gone sideways/not higher sometimes for decades... 2000-2014.... 1968-1991... 1929-1956... So maybe in fact US is more risky than some other markets...
I am just curious. US Foreign Affiliate Assets bring back $400B profits each year from China. That is your 401K in action. How would you think China is not investable? How about India? Want to invest in India? They will clean your pockets with their retroactive taxes. Just ask GM, Coke and Ford.
The key is predictability of risk, thats a big difference. Problem with China is they're unpredictable, and they don't indicate they need a good working relationship-if you listen to their official public statements.
The US is talking shit about China, welcome to indoctornated hate. If your interested in rabbit holes "Boy boy" on youtube , they did a visit to a special base in australia.
Ask yrself why many MNC moving out of China n go 2 India, Latin America n Asean countries? Maybe its no more developed China if u have watched this media. Unemployment, people sleeping roadside n banks don't honour the depositors with ghost cities n many more. Yr comment should b only Chinas problems n not 2 quote other countries.
As if there's no anti China policy in other country.. it's uninvestable for those country too since we are now seeing many 'China' when it come to free trade/competition.
Every countries are good but it will be worst n chaos when their leaders only want to stay in power forever instead of taking care of their citizens basic livelihood first, a country will not prosperous when their citizens basic livelihood are not taken care of.
According to the china expert in the west; everything in china which ia growing at 5% has collasped, and everything in the west with negative growth is good. 😂😂😂
China may be in the same situation as Evergrande is. - That's why Moody's rating agency moved China down to a "Negative" rating last year. It had concerns about China's ability to pay its world-highest debt, at $55 trillion.
For China what was most important was to reign in their overheated real estate market. Which after 14 years they finally did it Loads of FDI from the outside world would create overheating markets again Plus they have so many tools 3 trillion in FX reserves (estimated another 3 trillion hidden reserves ) Hidden Gold reserves 2 times the size of the USA. The ability to make and hide internal debt. And low external debt amount they can borrow on etc etc Plus “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” just got burnt by buying the Junk Bonds of Chinese Property Developers But with that said yes Chinese stock market has no market makers where 85% of the trades are done by retail mom and pops where 67% have less than a high school graduation. 81% trade once a month That should tell anyone that their bear markets will get oversold and their bull markets overbought
When economist talked about politics, I knew the rest of the talk are horseshite. China so called "strict lockdown" was not all it seems. It was strict against foreign visitors, but compare to other countries, China actually came out of lockdown much earlier, albeit with some restrictions, especially against foreign visitors and places that affected by covid case. Because China adopted lockdown much earlier and much stricter than the rest of the world, covid cases also fell down much earlier in China. Then China allowed some normalcy while the rest of the world went into lockdown mode, allowing Chinese people to get back to work, shops begin to open, etc. When the rest of the world have to coop out at home, we watched the Chinese people having rave party at swimming pool. That's why when China open the door to foreigners, or as the western "experts" claimed as the end of lockdown, there are not much rebound in economy because economy never really collapsed during covid period, it just lethargic but going on. China also didn't throw in massive stimulus, even during covid, like the rest of the world, particularly the US did. To make the matter seemed worse than it is, the Chinese gov also decided to use this crisis as an opportunity to crack down on property speculation that has plagued Chinese economy for three decades. Make no mistake, Chinese economy is still growing healthily, at 4-5% a year. Even if you don't buy that number, which some economists think it is only at 1-2%, it is still a respectable growth number for the second largest economy in the world. Clearly the Chinese gov is not in a panic over this.
Again, History is repeating... 😂 During the 70's 80's .. U$A to EU : We should not invest in China, the system(commuxxx) is bad and needs to be punished. EU : OK , agree But after that, it was U$A companies that flooded into China to make huge profits, the EU so dxmb.🤣
I don't think that the ever dominance of Xi in every aspect of China is fake. This started to really show around 2018-19 and has only accelerated. It is also true that Xi, a truly great political manipulator, is no economic genius nor does he care very much because every wealthy person is potentially a rival to him.
Hell, I'm old enough to remember the 70s energy crisis, when the Boogieman was Saudi Arabia, "about to take over the world." Then, it was another country, then another, somewhere in there we all thought Japan was going to take over the world, now it's China, which, legitimately is second, but a far distance behind the US in GDP and country market capitalization. Always the next Boogieman. Always Chicken Little's running around squawking, "the sky is falling, the sky is falling." Yeesh. Open your eyes and minds, read a bit, understand some measure of history, understand some other facts so you're actually well-informed before spouting just what you "feel." Back up what you say with a raft of undeniable/supportable facts. Overwhelm us with your arguments, if you want to change minds.
@@walkingstick6655 Seems rather credible taking into account the size of population, manufacturing, trade and technological advancement. Some have suggested that Chinese GDP is correct on average, but they smoothen out lows in the stats... sounds feasible.
I don’t agree with her. Just because we have to do business with China doesn’t mean we have to invest in China. is your greed that important that you are willing to sleep with the enemy? And like others have said above, who wants to invest in a country where an authoritarian government can randomly shut your company down or disappear the CEO? Or worse yet, nationalize the company you’re invested in if they feel like it?
It is worse than Japan , the depth and scale of the problem is way bigger and the destruction of wealth has been a tsunami since 70% of household wealth is in property.
@@ndukasmith Property sales is -76% of pre Covid. The debt of top 100 prop dev is US10-12 T and insolvent . Listings of 2nd hand properties is at a record and prices are falling each month. Shadow banks are failing and can’t pay on their wealth products. Mortgage defaults are rising each month. Businesses going bankrupt are at a record. Many malls are empty. Confidence is at lowest. I could go on and on.
Robert, unfortunately most on here don’t want to hear the facts, but you are exactly right in broad terms. Additionally, on top of that, People do not trust investing in a potentially belligerent neo-fascist state with a dictator.
