Great video. Some notes: H1: Calling villians turn bet is better than raising as you are getting 0 value raising vs villians betting range which will only contain 4 subsets of hands here: 1) Pocket pairs which want some value/protection vs FD's and overcards, thus raising cuts your value as raising will fold out these combos on the turn and they will likely call river on bricks. 2) AA with the heart which there is some value raising agains't as they will likely call a raise and perhaps a shove on some rivers but this is a tiny part of villians range as AA will almost always bet flop here to get 3 streets of value protection vs a K or Draw. 3) Mega nuts - No raise 4) Complete air? I think 99.99% of the time complete air will can rule this out with line villian has taken but obv we don't want to raise vs this. H2: WP I think, tough call for villian think we often see folds on River. Perhaps flop raise hand selection can be a little btr as Bena suggested. H3: This is a punt on the river. How often do you think villian is going to bet small flop>OB turn> Shove Riv for 4x pot with QJ/QT when you can easily be holding 8x and low Ax is unlikely to ever call on that JT completing river anyway. Maybe 5% of the time as Qx hands will check back river very often in reality and the only pure bluff you will find here will be 67s which is not going to use this line always either. A lot more could be said about this hand but to simplify you need villian to be bluffing 40% of the time in this line to be a profitable river call, do you really think villian has bluffs here 4/10 times? I think maybe only 2/10 times max on this scary board with a 4x river jam when villian has you tagged on someone who doesn't like folding/giving up. But that's just my 2 cents. Wp wp and gl on the grind brother.
24:08 such a sick jam by JT, actually feels too loose to me. OOP has to have a really call-happy tendencies to 4x jam a straight on a paired board. Solver doesn't seem to use overbets OTR in my sims.
@MrDizew I fully agree. I think villain expects me to turn up with a lot of 8x, maybe he thinks I overfold Ax on turn? So probably assumes I never fold 8x on river? Idk, seems pretty thin
How does a good reg overbet that board? WDM?? I guess he is exploiting then. 10:00 I would just pure fold, since villain is playing non standard, but I guess everything is fine.
You’re not exactly correct. There is a difference between a rec. that plays 50nl on the weekend and a rec, that is not a professional that plays 1000nl semi regularly. The ladder will often be infinitely a better player.
