9:33 This analysis ties in with Nassim Taleb's concept of Fat Tails, i.e., remove fat tails (extreme negative drawdowns) and limit your risk. The equity curve differences also speak to Spitznagle's studies on geometric returns versus average returns, i.e., again the main factor is limiting massive drawdowns which should results in a higher return over time.
HELLO 👋👋I'M NEW TO CRYPTO CURRENCY TRADING AND I'VE BEEN MAKING LOSSES TRYING TO MAKE PROFIT MYSELF IN TRADING...I THOUGHT TRADING ON DEMO ACCOUNT IS JUST LIKE TRADING THE REAL MARKET... CAN ANYONE HELP ME OUT OR AT LEAST ADVICE ME ON WHAT TO DO?
Thank you for the video and for the simple, but potent, idea. Could you tell me if you think (or have evidence for) this approach's efficacy using leveraged instruments, such as UPRO or TQQQ? Many thanks.
The real investing thing about this strategy is it only work if a few people are doing it while a majority of the market doesn't shift around so much and acts 'normal'. Because if everyone did it then as soon as stocks went below the 10 day moving average it would go to zero. So no recovery would be able to be made to get back in. So thank your local buy and hold investor for providing the floor that you get to dance on.
Dear Financial Wisdom, in your videos / strategy, do you use the 20 EMA or 20 SMA? I guess the SMA, correct? How come you prefer the SMA over the EMA. I am thinking to use the quicker reacting EMA for Crypto and the SMA for stocks?
@@FinancialWisdom As I wrote before, are you doing besides momentum als a dividend portfolio and would take about it in the future? And currently the double macD strategy in Crypto (ETH) is unfortunately leading to no good results because always get in too late when main move up is already happened and out when main move down is already done.
I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio of $450k dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
@@joshbarney114 I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
@@FabioOdelega876 Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. “Colleen Janie Towe” is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.
@@joshbarney114 Thank you for this tip , I must say Colleen, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
A crash in the stock or real estate markets has less of an immediate impact on people's standard of living than inflation or currency devaluation. That the market is so negative at the moment shouldn't be shocking. If we are to survive in this economy, we need assistance right away. The ETF and stock markets are still quite volatile, just like the property market. Now all that's left of my $370K portfolio is ruins.
I prefer to seek the advice of financial consultants when making my daily investment decisions, especially since their expertise is focused on short- and long-term holdings for profit realisation and because of their specific research, it is almost difficult for them to underperform. I've been investing with my consultant for just over two years, and during that time we have already generated sizeable net profits.
@@trazzpalmer3199 Salvatore Fortunato Sofia, a well-known expert in her field, is my financial consultant. Her website is where you may get in touch with her. She is a great resource for anyone looking to understand the financial market because of her extensive experience.
Instead of trying to predict whether or not we’re going into more recession and keep losing your money, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every quarter according to Bloomberg.
I’m just doing everything wrong with my portfolio, 25% of my portfolio is in the red and I really don’t know how long I can stomach the losses. I’m beginning to reach a breaking point.
I do feel your pain mate, I’d suggest you look into passive index fund investing and learn some more. For me,I had my share of ups and downs when I first started looking for a consistent passive income so I hired an expert advisor for aid, and following her advice, I poured $30k in value stocks and digital assets,Up 200k so far and pretty sure I'm ready for whatever comes
@@adenmall7596 Having an expert is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor is "ELEANOR ANNETTE ECKHAUS” who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
Warren Buffet said we should keep buying through thick and thin especially through thin as American businesses are going to do well, I have currently set aside about $253k to put in the market. Any ideas how to go about that ?
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Staples and utilities drop down much less, but they grow a lot less, too. If you don't have the stomach for drops, don't be fully in stocks, especially growth stocks.
Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
@@devereauxjnr Factos!! Since the market became extremely volatile and pressure increased (I should be retiring in 17 months), I took the decision to work closely with a financial advisor. It has already been 9 months and counting, and I have made approximately 600K net from all of my holdings.
The most important thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stoc,ks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.
The key to big returns is not big moving stoc,ks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investng to day trading.
Even with the right technique and assets some investrs would still make more than others, as an investr, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a maket analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my proft right before the correction and now I’m buying again
I came here to get an idea of how to trade utilizing A.I trading bot after hearing a guy on a podcast talk about the importance of A.I trading bot and how he made $660,000 in 6 months from $50,000. This video has helped to clarify a few things for me, but I'm still puzzled, I'm a rookie, and I'm open to suggestions.
@Brilliantrans Interesting. I have a lump sum that does absolutely nothing to my bank account, I want to start something with that. You seem to be doing very well, how can i reach out to this investment-adviser if you don't mind putting me to the right direction?
@Brilliantrans Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
I came here to Learn how to trade after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made $460,000 in 4 months from $160k. Some how this video as help shield light on something’s. But I’m Confused about the current market violatrilty I’m new and I’m open to ideas..
Brenda Mildred Jones is an expert and a guru in describing the trade terms to the newbie, and with my portfolio growing firmly with her simple trade guide, therefore I hold no reservation in recommending her as a mentor
@@lemriknos2144 You're right, Brenda Mildred Jones is an expert, she made everything for me. A few weeks prior to this course,I had minimal knowledge environment, however, I can now happily say that I am confident with her analysis and market structure. I would strongly recommend Brenda Mildred Jones signal and strategy to anyone who would like a boost in conference when trading and analyzing the markets.
I am in my 40s looking for different avenues to invest I found my self a good broker referred by big sharks in stock market, she grew my portfolio from quarter a million to four million dollars in the first months of the year, if you are looking to diversify do it now you are never too old.
Hello Jasmine, I'm close to your age and I need to grow my current wealth of half a million dollars. If it's possible, please share this woman with me.
Annette is the right person to run to if you're talking about stock investment, presently I have 7m$ in my portfolio and she is responsible for it, I started off with 500k, working with the right person or team is the best advice for anyone looking to make progress efficiently.
@@aaravsamardh7089 Annette is going far, I'm happy to see this recommendation on her, I remember when she started her career, anyone could tell she had the spark, true genius.
We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyper-inflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
@@mohammeddumadi8323 You are right! I diversified my 450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above 1.3m in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds during this red season.
@@Brendavonrohr4 How can I reach out to this coach? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach How good is this person at portfolio diversification, particularly with regard to digital assets?
In any country, there are developers who make money. So I say all of this doom and gloom, but there will always be people who make money, because people always want homes
The best technique to use in the market system is to try with a professional who understands the market quite well, that way maximum profit is guaranteed
Absolutely love these data driven videos. The rest of your videos are great too, but these are my favorite! Thank you very much. You've got one of my absolute favorite youtube channels :)
Lets take a latest example of any index, nowadays 10 Month MA way below the price and I want to invest, so should we wait index price to touch 10 Month MA. Thanx in advance
I'm 54 and my wife ..and I are VERY worried about our future, gas and food prices rising daily. We have had our savings dwindle with the cost of living into the stratosphere, and we are finding it impossible to replace them. We can get by, but can't seem to get ahead. My condolences to anyone retiring in this crisis, 30 years nonstop just for a crooked system to take all you worked for.
@Christina-Gisela The crazy part is that those advisors are probably outperforming the market and raising good returns but some are charging fees over fees that drain your portfolio. Is this the case with yours too?
@@Amelia-Elizabeth Bridget Mary Turow is quite popular on Bloomberg I doubt if there is anyone who is serious about stock trading that doesn't know her. She has helped me quite a few times in growing my portfolio and it was blissful without any setbacks. she is a tough person in an industry that demands clairvoyance
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Palestine, the stock market is a huge mess right now, I will suggest you invest in cryptocurrency for a successful long-term strategy and most importantly you have to seek guidance from a broker or financial advisor.
With the help of an investing advisor, I diversified my $400K portfolio across markets, and I was able to earn over $900k in net profit from high dividend yielding equities, ETFs, and bonds.
I receive financial advice from "Nicole Desiree Simon", a well-qualified and well-established wealth counselor headquartered in California. Her basic information can probably be found online.
When I curiously typed in her entire name to search online, I saw that her site was highly ranked and really professional. Thank you for sharing this; it has stoked my desire to achieve my objective again.
My advice to new investors: Trade good companies stocks and hold them as long as they are good companies. Just do this and ignore the forecasts and market views which are at best entertaining but completely useless. I’ve only ever saved($510,000), never traded but want to start.
As with any big financial decision , it’s important to keep your guard’s up for economic risks. However, smart planning ,time management and seeking advise from a financial adviser can help keep you and your money safe.
Absolutely, I agree, and the markets are currently in a frenzy. The greatest time to observe them, learn more about them, and take advantage of opportunities to strike is now. My F.A, Corinne Cecilia Heaney"" who has witnessed hundreds of market cycles over the past three decades, taught me this. She has an intuitive understanding of how things move, why they move, and what will happen next.
Amazing video and thank you for breaking it down!! Despite the economic downturn, I'm so happy I have been earning $ 60,000 returns from my $9,000 investment every 21days.
Excellent content again and I always learn a lot from your productions. Quick question. When you say the 10 month MA do you mean a monthly chart with a 10 MA or a monthly chart with a 210 MA.
I began my investment journey at the age of 33, primarily through hard work and dedication. I am to share that my passive income exceeded $100k in a single month for the first time. This success reinforces the importance of the advice mentioned earlier. It is not about achieving quick wealth, but rather ensuring long-term financial prosperity.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor?
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $500k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.
I would probably add some additional criteria (thats how i roll :)). I would only buy on at least "flatening" or a better "uptrending" 200day/10month MA (or at least look at the 50 day to make sure its not declining) That would hopefully help from gettting wipsawed out.
Dumb question... there's 20-22 weekdays in a month, so a 10 month SMA is equivalent to a ~210 day SMA right? Basically the same thing? I guess the difference is that the 200 day would be more volatile since it would be more like an active trailing average vs. the 10 month waiting for a month to close? Is that right, or do they both trail on daily changes?
This makes sense, the only question i would have is the amount of taxes you would have to pay for capital gains vs buy and holding where no tax is paid on unrealized profits.
New sub. Very informative video! I've been using the 12 month SMA as outlined by Bulkowski. For those of us that don't have a lot of free time this approach is the way to go.
Alot of people don't realize how dangerous buy and hold can be for emotions it can cause people to leave the market at the worse time and never come back. This happened to my dad's 401k. if he had implemented a strategy that limited losses he would have been able to stay in the market even if the strategy had limited returns vs buy and hold on certain years.
Brilliant vid as usual. Been a professional trader for 20 yrs and it s always such a good thing to get reminded such important and crucial concepts… 👌 you noobies are lucky to have access to this!
It's about buying the best price possible, but it's even more about What is the price u are getting when u want to sell, while holding it doesn't matter if it is in Profit or loss, it's all about the time of exit, Price action is most important, indicators just give an overall perspective, nothing is 100% sure, u need luck some times and proper knowledge, intellect for decision making, the more experience u have the better but only if u learn from it.
@ericastewart5030 Wow!! Kind of in shock, you mentioned Mrs. Arianna. She has proved beyond all doubt that it's worth generating wealth from crypto investment. I've been earning greatly
Great info! How does dollar cost averaging compare to the 10 month MA approach? I would think the results of this would definitely depend on whether you're investing a lump some at the beginning, or investing a certain amount each month. If monthly, those huge drops in the market would be incredible times to be investing with the S&P on sale technically.
Examined Bitcoin last bullmarket (2021), and the 10 Month MA works wonder. it warns the first drop to 30k and the subsequent close above the 10M MA which price proceed to rally to 68K. It also warned us the end of the bullrun (Nov-Dec22) even before the higher time frame Market Structure break.
I clicked this video because it said best indica ator. That's what I read after around 9 edibles and 4 joints. But I like crypto so I'll listen to you for a while
Now let's say that I could not trade the S&P500, because I was born in Germany in 1900? 2 world wars, the Weimar crash, several different currencies, dictatorships, etc. How will that study play out?
Dead simple works but nobody has the discipline to execute, even if it means buying & selling something as infrequently, because they also dont have the patience to do it, even in a retirement account. Though a bit slow to execute trades off personally, 200SMA/40Week are great filters. Another cracking video Gareth! Im assuming though that backtests didn't include dividends? If not the results would be even better, especially if holding some sort of interest bearing bond/money market fund while sitting in cash!
Does the back test take into account of the tax consequence of the exits? What are some of the ETFs that replicate the strategy? People could just buy and hold these ETFs without suffering from the tax consequences of market timing.
As a beginner investor, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable 🤷. Myself I'm guided by Mrs Gillian Sara Sheeran, a widely known crypto consultant 💪
@@osaka1866 Wow!! Kind of in shock, you mentioned Mrs. Sara. She has proved beyond all doubt that it's worth generating wealth from crypto investment. I've been earning greatly
No doubts! The strategies and Al auto trading tools she provides for beginners are very helpful, being part of her vip signal channel has really helped me as a stock holder
#1 - 200 Day Simple Moving Average Buy: when price closes above 200 SMA. Sell: when price closes below 200 SMA. Results are incredible, helps avoid major crashes #2 - 10 Month Simple Moving Average (2:45) Buy: when price closes above 10 Month SMA. Sell: when price closes below 10 Month SMA. Which one is better? overlaying 10 Month SMA over 200 Day SMA show that both reach the same end result. However 10 Month SMA is rather less volatile. From the period 1901 to 2011, $100 invested via Buy & Hold strategy would compounded up being just above $2M. Whereas 10 Month MA would compound $100 to just above $5M. Buy & Hold had a volatility of 17.87% whereas 10 Month MA had volatility of only 11.9%, avoiding many of the major declines. 5:05 : worst years in comparison average loss in 10 worst years was 27.89% while in same months, 10 Month MA average loss was only 2.20%.
I am confused by the 10-month moving average. In terms of trading days, it would mean 210 days (10 months x 21 trading days in a month). I haven't seen any moving average indicator that can be inputted using month.
Interesting, how to set a 10 month MA in Tradingview? Is the goal to convert 10 months to days ? so far I've seen all inputs for MA are in days . Thankful for any idea.
Love the content man, I've learned much from you. Seems like there are an awful lot of bot spammers about various financial investor mentors and scams though. Be careful out there fellow viewers.
Is the 10 month moving average the same as a 210 day moving average on chart settings? 210 I think would be the days the market would be opened during a 10 month period.
This is all very good information but do consider that only looking in the rear view mirror is not always a financial safe decision. The future is unknown and on going war and conflicts are on the horizon. If a nuclear event were to take place, confidence in most markets would take a big hit
Use relative volume to have the strongest edge in the market Why is this so hard to understand ? I always tell my members : Relative volume is to a stock what fuel is to a car - the higher the relative volume the further stock will move - just as a fuel to a car It’s not rocket science
You have to pay tax at some point.... The improved return on risk should offset, the point though is not a stand alone approach but a foundation to trade/invest upon
TQ bro for good information...God bless ...i am from INDIA ...i trade mostly in index options can u pls do a video of option strategies to trade in volitile market without prediction ...pls
I agree. Both are 200 days. And I think all MA’s are based on trading days not calendar days. Maybe he should say “period” instead of daily/monthly. Maybe the 200 period ma on a daily chart looks different than a 10 period ma on a monthly chart. Now I have something to do today. Or he should have said 300 day ma.
Is it just me or the 10 Month EMA and the 200 Day EMA is just about identical. Not sure how one would outperform the other. Also, whenever you exit when there is a close bellow and enter when it closes back above these EMAs you are always in a worse position than if you would have just held the position. They would also incur costs to get in and out of trades multiple times, and needs an active approach not to miss these entry and exit points or you are losing even more money. The only time this seems to be useful is when trading with significant leverage, because it minimizes the draw-down, which could blow up an account. And maybe if the time frame of investing is short.
The main difference is one day time frame versus one month time frame. A stock can move a lot in one month but usually much less in one day. So in a large market downturn a 200 day moving average would allow one to get out of a position much quicker. Whereas a monthly moving average one would only exit after a possible 30 days of decline. The same though is true on the upside.
Many thanks for another great video. Any "wisdom" in expanding asset classes to include for example bonds and commodities? If the equity trend is down, why not move into something that's trending up (if available) rather than cash?
I actually talk about using a 200-day moving average on index funds in my book (the 10-month is a monthly equivalent of the 200-day). Using a 200-day MA to time indices puts up essentially the same returns as buy and hold with drawdowns less than half as big as buy and hold.
I have attempted to backtest this approach from 1990 to 2023 and find I get very different results depending on what assumption I make about the entry and exit prices - can I ask what assumption you make, open close, mid or something else?
Could you do this with 2 Year LEAPS Options? And is there a website that lets you screen for and recieve email updates for stocks crossing over and under the 10month MA?
Does the differential between buy and hold, and jump in and out strategy you propose hear still hold up with the increased frictional brokerage and tax costs?
I am thinking about this strategy and using TQQQ or some kind of leveraged spy strategy. The limited drawdown means it's possible to not go bankrupt doing it with the lower DD.
For the 10 month moving average, are you talking about the 10 months SMA or EMA? Or it doesn’t really matter ? In addition, what time frame to use for the best result of the indicator ? TIA
Can you do some research on the Bollinger bands, MACD, and stochastic indicators and how the market compares to following when they hit highs and lows?
Thanks Gareth. Fascinating. I usually equate the 200 day EMA with the 40 week EMA and the 10 month EMA. But I think this video demonstrates a meaningful difference. In terms of detail, I assume all trades on the 10 month EMA are ended or commenced on the first or last day of each month? Is that correct?
@@FinancialWisdom I get much better results (3x the profits) using 10sma rather than 10ema. Also, not understanding why you say moving average and not exponential moving average in the video but then it's an ema that you plot.
So I feel like I am missing something obvious. The equity curve at the beginning of the vid shows $100k growing to $5M over a 60 year time frame (1960-2020) using the timing method. That's about 6.5% annualized. The actual S&P grew much more than that (~10.25%) over the same time period. What am I missing? Big fan of the channel by the way and just joined your website
