Love your videos , and in particular the formulas to win /los exp goals scored condeded etc etc . With the world cup coming up . I have been experimenting with some calculations statistics for international tournaments .( only using post war data as this is the era when football became proffesional and every on had to qualify ) and using basic rough data surprisingly accurate . First step : Percentages when teams where knocked out , group stage , round of 16 , quarter finals , semi-finals , finals ( adding gr " Second step : Percentages reaching rounds of 16 quarter finals , semi-final , finals. ( calculating back wards final + semi final = reaching semi-finals , Final +1/2 final + 1/4 final = reaching quarter final .. etc ) Third Step : Take the percentage of step 2 of team 1 ad the percentage of step 1 from team 2 add those together and you gat a value . do the same for team 2 . compare the values highest value wins . and goes through to the next round. Step 4 ( when to close to call ) ad the exact percentage of knock outs to the opposite teams. You can refine this with more statistics average goals scored by teams , conceded ( its strange but most teams that score surprisingly consistent, )
Another excellent video Peter. Love your basic approach to explaining things. Each video gives me another vital piece of information to add to the collection. Damn, you make it look so easy ! 🙂
Thanks. It becomes easier the longer you do it, and it's more obvious what could be about to happen. When I started, I just recorded everything and worked hard to try and understand what I was looking at. It's just second nature now.
@@betangeltv - I am getting better at spotting trends and patterns now. I really struggled when I first started looking at pre-off racing and basically walked away. After some time (and binge watching your videos) I came back to pre-off with a different view. Its definitely not easy, but getting easier.
Its like you read my mind, i was only thinking about making a post to ask about this today. I am currently trading as many races as i can, to find which set ups work for me and which dont. Good to hear that sometimes the correct trade is not to trade. I feel like i am starting the next chapter of my trading and having more wins than losses, still a few leaks to plug though. Thank you for all you do Peter.
Great video peter. I'm really trying to master trading orderflow. My issue is always around timing. I often get the direction right but never the timing right. I either get in too early and get tossed around and take a loss only to see the move happen after I'm out or I will get in too late and miss the move completely and get stuck in the resverse and end up taking a loss. Often what happens is i will do a few successful trades and then one bad trade wipes out all the prev trades profits :-(
It's quite common for people starting out to experience this. One of the things I did was to put orders in the market and measure them at set intervals, i.e. slow down my decision-making. That made me more patient for a move to develop. I have a list of items in my head and don't change my mind unless those items start to head south.
@@betangeltv thank you for your reply. Im really struggling to master when to get in to to the market and when to get out if things go south. The market keeps chopping and changing. I take a loss only for it to end up going in the desired direction. Do you offer any advance courses or one on one mentoring. Im at the point now where I will do anything to get this right and try to make a living from trading?
Hi Peter great vid as always, can you tell me why bet angel dutching does not offer a trade-out option in running? I have always used bet angel and dutching a lot more now if I can see a good market to dutch, but having the option to trade out would be great.
When you dutch you create a partial book, so you should close in the same manner as well. It's not quite the same process as trading. If you try to hedge a partial book you can end up in all sorts of hurt.
Thanks for sharing Peter. The pitfalls of so many trading decision/permutations, there is a danger of paralysis from analysis, indecision loss of confidence and then a Fuck it I'll just enter here decision. Nothing is straight forward and thats why its so difficult to trade imo. Practicing over long periods of time will reduce these feelings and errors of judgement. You do make it look so effortless. Did you also go through these problems when starting off? and how long did it take you to push through these types of feelings and get to this process of decision making? How much time would you set aside to give the rookie trader to assess the market correctly?
Yes, I had these problems. My first attempt at trading was short-term on financials, and I was completely useless. So that served me well when I started trading on Betfair as I knew what mistakes not to make.
Great content as usual Peter, do you still use excel for any of your automation or do you just use the guardian software to automate your positions? It would be great to see some more up to date excel integration videos, I think the last ones were over 10 years ago. Absolutely loving using BetAngel, keep up the amazing work Peter.
OK, I didn't realise they were that old. I'll produce some new ones. As the Guardian automation has improved there has been less need to use Excel, so I've shifted nearly everything to within the software. More enhancements in the new version due soon.
@@betangeltv Nice one Peter, it would be ace to see BetAngel stored values incorporated into pivot tables in excel for price movements and market volume etc. Perhaps using power query to update results, to check trends. I also enjoy Dallas's forum tutorials which would also make good video tutorials. Thank you for getting back to me.
At around 16min, you could have pressed the green up button for a £6.02 profit. With just a few secs to go , why did you wait for your remaining trades to get filled when you could have closed out for a certain profit? Asking purely from a time perspective.
I do, but most of it is automated now, thanks to TPD. Keep your eye out for some videos in the next few weeks. It is entirely false that Inplay is more profitable. Pre-off markets account for around 80% of volume (and profit). InPlay appears more effortless and more profitable because it's easy to get a winning trade. But many people who promote it don't tell you about the gut-wrenching losses that go along with those strategies. www.betfairtradingblog.com/betfair-trading-profitable-or-lucky/
I noticed you left orders stacked up below where the current price was trading, was that to skew the WOM on the lay side and put off potential backers?
As they are nearer the front of the queue, it often makes sense to leave them there, but they would probably influence the market a little. So it's often worth leaving it there until the price moves away.
@@betangeltv - so if the price started coming back towards you, you would leave them there and let them get drawn into the market ? Obviously this increases your liability but also drags the profit side down towards you too ? Or am I totally off the mark here ?
Hello betangel instead of greening why not just use Betfair autocash feature, because when you use greening you are basically reducing your profit let's say you backed at odds of 3 and after some minutes you are now in profit of about 10$ if you use greening that profit meant reduce to 2$, but if you use Betfair autocash you will still make 10$
That doesn't make much sense as cash out / greening are the same thing. It's simply another lay bet. Betfair copied the concept from the trading community.
What is the best way to mitigate execution risk? I have an arbitrage trading strategy that places three bets anytime an arbitrage opportunity exists. The problem comes when one of the bets cannot be matched, but the other two can be. I have considered using the MatchMe feature and setting a liquidity filter to ensure that all my bets are matched, but is there a better method?
MatchMe matches you at a worse price if you are likely to have any unmatched money. Some of the answer to this question depends on whether you pre-off or in-play and what sport you are on.
The trouble with in-play Tennis is you will be pretty well being the action, and that will always put you at a big disadvantage. There isn't an easy way to mitigate that.
There isn't any particular reason for that. Positions can work in both directions, but if you open to lay you can take advantage of crossover points and if the exchange crashes, you have more chance of winning a lay bet.
you never said where the price will go you only said it doesnt goout ot of range in hcup lol you speak what you see whats happening so many unnecessary words no key points none of that as usually
It doesn't matter what videos I do, you always manage to see the wrong thing in it. Even when I produced a video that matched all your criteria you still didn't get it. Unfortunatley, I just don't think you are cut out for trading. Sorry about that.
Brilliant! What I could extract out of this trash is that there's no bones in your tongue. I wish they were there. You showed one trade, in which there were no money involved. And that went your way. You are just hype.
For somebody so full of hate you have the most ironic username 'Relax@Mediate'. It's sort of weird to be on the end of this abuse when all I do is try to help. I guess you must have some issues you haven't explained. I'm sorry for those, but you are taking them out in the wrong place. Can I have your permission to use this and your other posts on a video? I just want to show people the sort of comments I get occasionally.
@@betangeltv You are too ambicious to think that the hate is driving me. I just feel that time spent on watching your videos is lost time. Worthless. My intension to write here is to just warn folks to spend their time in more useful way. You can use my quotes wherever you want.
I will use your quotes, but just to point out how people can end up on completely the wrong track. I'm successful, I'm telling people what I know, and yet some people just can't see it. It was a real eye-opener for me when it first happened. I just never in my dreams imagined it would still be happening twenty years on. When I started out I worried that I'd lose my edge if others people knew what I was doing, why and how. But I now realise that is never going to happen. It's amazing.
@@betangeltv I have been harsh with you in the past and apologise about that. I think it is just frustration, that's why people take it out on you. I can see you genuinely want to educate and help people. Thanks.
@elastronaute1198 I get the frustration as I experienced this when I first started trading financials. I was completely hopeless, so thought it couldn't be done. But that lesson set me up well for what I do now.
