This roundtable discussion examines recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritization approaches to better understand emerging issues and categorize them either as risk-related problems to be solved or strategic opportunities to be captured. Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible strategic decisions continues to challenge governments and global businesses. These challenges are likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. The arrangement of garnered insights will inform strategic decisions at all levels of the organization. Integrating horizon scanning and risk prioritization, utilizing a qualitative weight of evidence framework, is one approach to creating a systematic process. This method identifies all signals of potential future change with a significant impact on risk-stratified strategic missions and underlying values. Moreover, this approach encourages the exploration of factors out of the control of organizations, recognizing that resilience depends upon the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with various unexpected outcomes. We will also examine how leaders may reliably apply this framework to construct a solid strategic plan. Finally, there will be recommendations for further developments to build confidence in using horizon scanning for risk-stratified strategic planning.
Key Words: futures, horizon scanning, prioritization, risk, strategic decision-making
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21 ноя 2022
