Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 Presidential race against Donald Trump. He has endorsed Kamala Harris to be their parties nominee. Join this channel to get access to perks: / @allanlichtmanyoutube
I supported Biden and am sad too, but now everyone has to not waste any time and get behind Harris and the Dems ... like the old saying ... "united we stand, divided we fall". There is just one chance to save democracy and everyone's sanity!
The reason few people listen to Mr. Lichtman is because he says what they need or should hear. Not what people want to hear. Amazing how many won't listen to what needs to be heard.
No. People listen to Lichtman because he's right and he hasn't altered his 13 keys ever. He doesn't acquiesce to what people want him to say. He simply provides the results of his keys.
It has been a roller coaster ride of emotions today. At least twice, I have broken down and cried. During the past few weeks, my stomach has churned with anxiety, then dropped into a black pit of despair. Seeing this lifelong public servant gallantly hand off his seat of power to his natural successor gave me hope. However, nothing is certain yet. I am deeply saddened to have to say goodbye to the most successful president of my lifetime. Considering the stakes, I will of course support Kamala and the Democratic Party.
I cried when I heard Biden was stepping down ! But than I felt excitement when I heard Biden endorsed Kamala ! I am excited for Kamala ,We owe Biden a lot for what he has done for the country so pay him back get out and vote blue ! And vote for Kamala
@@doublecrossedswine112 you must have considered that Biden would die in office and Kamala would be replacing him, right? I knew I was voting for both of them, because Biden was clearly in decline. I hate that he was forced out, but that is no reason not to vote for a great candidate like Kamala, who was his hand picked succcessor.
Thank you, Sam and Dr. Lichtman, for doing this special live today! As soon as I heard the news, I really wanted to hear what Dr. Lichtman had to say about it. 💙💙💙
That's actually what I said. I trust Biden. He point I go there. He told me to stand with Harris and that's what I'm doing. Vote blue all the way down. Rally up friends.
no such a crafty lady if you want more inflation and destructive liberal agenda... Vote Red... save our economy, save our republic! This bitch obviously has a mental problem
@@KatMSmith Well, he needed a lot of convincing. After all, Biden still thinks he could have won (doubtful) and that he would make a better president (most certainly).
@@amu4663 She is not in a leadership position and she did stand down. I didn't see Moscow Mitch standing down after any of his "freeze" episodes whilst being the minority leader of the Senate.
Democrats of the professional political class (not talking about average people) are the biggest users on the planet. The fact that people still don't know this is mind-boggling.
Hi Professor Lichtman you called it and America owes President a lot he has saved OUR Democracy once again! GO VP Harris you will be a great President and it's about time that we have a female in Chief!! 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
@@AryanManIamAll the jobs he created in record time, reopened the country after donald’s botched pandemic response and let’s see…what else? Oh and inflation is progressively going down. I could go on, but you’re right, he was a disaster😉
I too am extremely disappointed in President Obama as I am with most of the Democratic party. As a lifelong Democrat I am angry, frustrated and seriously considering leaving the party to become an Independent. I am still trying to make sense of the abandoning of President Biden because of one debate performance. President Biden may have slowed, haven't we all, but he was in perfect command and there is no diminishment of his cognitive abilities. What President Biden did today was selfless, he demonstrated integrity, ethics, character, principal and a love of country before self. Because President Biden has endorsed V.P. Harris, I will respect his endorsement and work hard to see that she in our nominee and that she is elected in November. Thank you both for your perspectives and insights. VOTE BLUE💙
I think President Obama has protected him for the past 2 years!! Don't you think he already knew the state the current President has been in?? But he knows you can't risk Biden having another debate performance as he did a few weeks ago. The debates were supposed to be Biden's saving grace and he failed!!
Thank you Allan, I cannot believe the democrats are not listening to you and your advice on the keys. So sorry to lose Biden, you are correct on the spineless democrats at this moment in time. Incumbency is so important for the contest. I hope they wake up to your advice to limit the damage they have caused to date, and not hand this election to Trump/Vance. The future of democracy is now truly resting on a very thin margin.
I'm sorry, I don't believe him. You know what he's saying, he probably read from a book and guessing I could be like him and saying what I'm saying is true I won't be so gullible like you and stupid😂
Isn’t democracy supposed to be the same in any democratic country? If so, why is it Haiti has been governed by Core Group Countries; primarily US??? I just need help understanding the word itself. In 1986 US “selected”first democratic election; to this day they haven’t allowed Haitians to lead except through corrupt politicians who work on their behalf. Haitian people are going to vote for Trump so he can shot down the unauthorized American base alone with US troops, so called KANIAN’ troops. The world would be a better place if every country go about their business. Trump will 🛑 the business of policing the world. And I hope he uses the funds to feed and shelter homeless on American streets. Bullying poor countries is never a good thing. No one country should have the right to impose its own rules/laws on another sovereign country.
Democrats eat their own whereas Republicans stick with theirs even if corrupt. We need to vote 💙 in all branches to keep the Supreme Court from taking away more of our hard fought freedoms.
Well, the top Democrats got what they wanted by kicking and screaming. Hopefully they'll listen to the uncontested primary contest winner they forced to step down and unanimously back the person he endorsed. It's the least they can do. I just worry about how AOC said that many of these top Dems aren't willing to back Kamala. I might explode if they bungle up this decision too.
She's right. Kamala is not well liked. They want to push Pete Buttigieg (because he's gay) or Gavin Newsome (because he changed the laws surrounding trans men in ladies locker rooms/dressing rooms and spas and kicked off that crap-storm of men being able to declare themselves women today and men tomorrow and gender neutral the next day). I won't vote for either of them since Pete has done NOTHING presidential and neither has Newsome while Kamala has. They best not skip over that black woman and expect the black voters to come out for the democrats. Ain't gonna happen.
If it turns out to be true, then AOC should not hold it back. I hear you though. I hope we don’t explode on the same day. I hope we don’t have to explode at all. I will certainly vote for Harris.
I predict 51% will vote for Harris and therefore everyone else will fall in line with the party including the one you mentioned... There is a possibility that Harris will not win the nomination but that is unlikely
Joe was going after the wealthy to pay their taxes. Some of them are donors. This is why we can't have someone representing the working class all the way. If Americans could only think for themselves and not get their opinion from the legacy media
Hey young man you're Lucky to have such a brilliant man as your father, Cherish the moments he shares with you and soakup the knowledge he pass down to you
At first I was disappointed about Biden not resigning effective immediately, as that takes away the “Incumbency” key like you said. But then I realized that if Kamala were to take Biden’s place now and something terrible happened over the next two months, she would be absolutely toast in the election. I think Biden actually made a good move here
Also, because the legislature would never approve a Democratic vice presidential appointment to finish up this term, we would have no gavel or a tie breaking vote in the Senate, should it be needed.
Those who are so ready to predict the death of democracy have a painfully shallow appreciation for the persistent faith in the system of citizens who have enjoyed generations of democratic government.
He's more of the problem. We need to move on. Time isn't on our side now. Of course, Rethuglicons don't care who is a criminal to represent them, or a rapist, or cheats on his taxes! Rethuglicons don't care. In fact, the more they break laws the more their cult loves that. Not news anymore. We need to focus on winning ourselves--screw the fascists, because they certainly want to put the screws to us aka: Project 2025. Dems were down $90 million with big $$$$ donors. This is the result of them boycotting Biden. And really, how could Dems compete knowing that just one fascist billionaire, Elon Musk is throwing orange furher $45 MILLION EACH MONTH NOW?? Please stop negative talk. We have a road to win, we BETTER TAKE IT NOW. Voting blue for the next Dem president will need strong blue majorities to reverse this SCOTUS stench of "Money= speech & corporations are ppl," horse poop.
I am deeply saddened by the cowards in my party pushing Biden out. Not only is he the greatest living President, he's one of the greatest presidents that ever lived.
@@johnbarrile2095 I wanted Joe to stay too and I was upset the Democrats successfully talked him into,dropping out, but since Joe is endorsing Vice President Harris to take over, I was like “Wait a minute, this might not be a bad idea after all because now Kamala being the smart tough woman she is, it just got harder for donald and his republicans to projectively mock President Biden’s cognitive abilities for political gain. Then again, they’ll make obnoxious racist misogynistic remarks about her. That’s all they got ieft to run on, lies after lies to tell, projections and racism and vote baiting false promises. Nothing positive to offer this country
He and Kamala made this decision together. Look at it that way. She was behind him until the very end, and he made the choice to tell her, you finish what I started. I find that very moving.
Biden forgot Machiavelli's advice about how to lead. He let many Democrats run roughshod over him with little push back and no consequences. If he couldn't control Democrats and donors, he was not strong enough to lead and defeat Trump. Now it remains to be seen if Harris has what it takes and can do what is necessary to defeat Trump and the treasonous Republicans.
@@olliegarcia2306 it's lose, and if the keys stay where they are, she's going to win. the prospect of a strong, smart, black woman beating an old, ugly, dumb, senile man is just... euphoric to me.
I feel so so sad for Joe Biden. His own side let him down. After all the hard work he did for America. It’s true they were all spineless. I really thought Obama would support him but he jumped on the bandwagon. Joe Biden is a true gentleman ❤
@@sp-bc1kk agree 100%. They also don't realize that Biden was their BEST chance at defeating Trump. Biden was dropping in the polls because the media attention was relentless and negative. His own damn party betrayed him. If Democrats were smart, they would had notice the reputable polls between Biden and Trump never change after the debate and Trump was only ahead by 1 or 2 percentage points.
I really want this watershed moment of this country FINALLY coming into the 21st century and electing a woman. If Mexico can do it, so can we. And no one has skin in the game like women do right now.
Where are the 100+ other congressional democratic representatives?? And why did they not come out with FULL support for Biden?? Why are the democrats so willing to give up a true statesman, a skilled and knowledgable international negotiator and obviously the common man supporter???
You obviously didn't watch the debate clearly there was cognitive decline serious health issues.... And therefore the polling was in trump's favour because it was a referendum on age and health
If Democratic voters demand he be put back on the ballot very soon by threatening not to vote for his replacement, they might actually listen. I, for one, am not going to vote for his replacement. I am not going to be told by the Dummycratic party, as I renamed them today, who they decide should be the president. If they don't care about the Democratic voters, why should Democratic voters care about them? I see very little difference in a democracy where your vote doesn't count anyway. If they don't like who you choose, they will force that person to quit anyway.
@@13thbiosphere how do you know what happened at the debate was cognitive decline? If someone with a stutter is bombarded with lies and has someone talking/interrupting them when they are trying to form words to speak with a time limit...and then be not only expected to rebut the lies AND answer the question...all stress drivers....how do you think it would go? Are you a medical doctor who has examined him?
@@13thbiosphere Some people have good memories and working brains, but they are crazy, irrational, ignorant, paranoid, delusional, etc. Trump might not have dementia, but he has craziness. He is delusional about himself. He thinks that every world leader bows to him. He says Putin would not have attacked Ukraine if he was president then. He doesn't know that Putin attacked Ukraine in 2014 or so. The war between Ukraine and Russia was going on while he was president, but not as bad. People like Trump because he is irrational and proud. They really believe that he someone who is so strong that every dictator obeys him. It is crazy. They want a strong president and not a good, honest, law-abiding wise president.
Listen guys. There’s a fair point to be made that the party leadership was too harsh in their treatment of Biden. But if Joe didn’t believe this was the right decision for the good of the country, he would have stood his ground. I think catching COVID must have been a wake up call for him. He’s too old for this crap. He deserves to retire from politics in peace after decades of loyal service. The man has given us everything he has. And I have more respect for him that ever for making this decision for the good of the country.
Are you kidding me? It's only day one. If they abandoned her today they'd be accused of racism. Most Dem donors know Kamala is a turkey and want her out. No one on planet Earth is going to call Kamala charismatic, and a reasonable non TDS person would agree Trump has charisma. Even giving them the a foreign policy success in the massively expensive Ukraine lost war, they still lose 8 keys. It's entirely possible you could have 10-12 keys for the Repubs. Even if party rallies around Kamala and Biden resigns there's no way Dems get it to 5 or fewer. [F] Party mandate [T] No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. [F] Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president [F] No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. [F] Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. [F] Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. [F] Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. [T] No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. [T] No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. [F] No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. [T] Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. [F] Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. [F] Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
No you won't. Dems will lose most 8 but it will hit at least 6 even without contest rfk is rising to 10 11 points in 538 consistently and getting on more ballots. Social unrest might get worse
@@gizelle1according to lichtman, polling data doesn't matter. So if RFK can get 13% (not outside the realm of possibility) and the other small third party candidates get another 2% combined on election night, that's the third party key gone.
@@LaidusonPlays Wrong. One candidate has to poll above 10%. Multiple perennial parties (green party, etc), plus a third party candidate do not turn that key. RFK ain't getting there.
He's probably staying in to help Ukraine and the middle east peace deal. Thank you President Biden, and I'm so sorry you were pushed out so unceremoniously.
People who consistently make bad predictions are listened to if they provide entertainment value. Most news media is focused on entertainment & excitement.
President Joe Biden has the biggest heart of gold 💛 By far the very best President, ever! Biden is a blessing to us all! What a selfless sacrifice. He picked Kamala Harris because he knew her heart is gold as well! This is what America has been waiting for this dynamic duo! Vote Kamala Harris Vote Blue 🗳️ ✨🕊🦋✨💙✨🦋🕊✨
Thank you! That's what we need right now. Blue ballots are what President Harris will need to be successful! Stop holding grudges. We need to move forward now!
Yep I'm in Oz too. This is a great show. Helps us understand what's going on in the states, without all the hype. Allan & Sam are fair dinkum! Fresh air & clarity.
I am thinking you will need to look closely at your analysis of the Charisma Key. The vibe I am getting from other Dems is sorrow about Joe stepping down but an unexpected sense of excitement. I believe that Kamala already has to a certain extent developed a greater charisma level than she previously had, especially among women, and if she continues to be charged up in her attacks against Trump and his “supreme injustices” we could see her shine. After all even FDR did not start out FDR.
I'm hoping that Biden said he would step down only if Kamala Harris was made the nominee. That would ensure she will be chosen. And thank you for your question about Cenk Uguyr. I have lost all respect for him. He has made Biden the enemy. I think he has lost his mind.
Cenk did that LONG time ago! I unsubscribed to TYT well over 1 year ago. They bashed Biden and Democrats more than orange Hitler. The progressive news show, Democracy Now! with Amy Goodman has been doing that same thing for the past 3 presidential elections!! They might as well go work for RT. 😤🤮😫
@@CynthiaDomf @CynthiaDomf you sound worried. I mean you back a 34 count convicted felon, fraudster,and rapist. She's a prosecutor who's not a felon. Keep laughing while your ship of fools sinks into the abyss
Lowe's donations were majority Democratic states or heavily Democratic counties the election is won by electoral college she currently losing all the new polls😢
Here's the silver lining: The Democratic Party leadership question will suck all the wind out of Trump's media juggernaut. The Democrat's bench is deep, Trump and Vance are going to get clobbered.
And the other beauty of this too, is that it just got harder and harder for donald his republicans to project who’s the mentally cognitively impaired here this time😂🤷♂️
Let’s all hope democrats rally behind Harris. Really excited for the debates honestly. A former prosecutor going up against a 34 times convicted felon. 🍿
A failure prosecutor who let real violent felons loose in California. Failed senator vp border czar. Trump did nothing wrong. Wait until it gets thrown out. You liberals are losers
I heard it was internal polling that showed Biden was losing steam. Also the big $$$$ donors stopped giving to Biden. He had a $90 million loss. They boycotted Biden. And as a reminder, it's 5 reichwing fascists sitting on SCOTUS in 2010 that made this boycott more powerful. They decided, "Corporations are ppl and $$$$ = speech." President Harris will need strong blue majorities now to make her time successful and we have lots of work to do. Fascists want us to fight each other. We need to stop. We don't have any time left now. Voting blue!! 💙
MSM is now talking as they just won. Fox is talking as they won.Trump is pooping his pullups and painting the walls with ketchup what a sad time for America😢
I did too. But then I spotted the bright side, which is it gets a lot harder for donald to project on who’s cognitively impaired this time and it’s making him nervous🤷♂️
Same. Because the biggest issue for voters here in Arizona is the border crisis and Harris was the border czar during the worst border crisis in American history. Biden won Arizona in 2020 and would’ve won it again, but it’s no longer a winnable state. Harris doesn’t need Arizona to win but it makes Trump’s path to victory much wider
@@carolesmith9235 I bet that’s why donald isn’t so smug this time about President Biden’s bad first debate against him. He’s scared of educated tough women
I won't vote for Trump ... but running Kamala Harris is a big mistake. Biden made a mistake when he chose her. I'd like to see a solid ticket people could relate to like Gov. Roy Cooper and Gretchen Whitmer as VP.
I have been listening to you. Totally agree. I am behind harris now. Unite and stay strong. I hope they pick a good vp for her. Do you have thoughts on vp?
Why did the media go after Biden after the debate instead of Trump? A more interesting story and the corporate media makes more money. Trump is severely mentally ill, why does no corporate media go after him?
No worries!! Biden chose Harris because he knew that she would one day carry his torch!! Democrats stay true to your vote!! Vote blue 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙 to save our Democracy!!
He is making some valid point about Barrack. Biden has done a better job of building up the party. Him stepping down and handing off is as party first as it gets.
Much respect and appreciation for Alan Lichtman. His last name in Dutch means literally The Lightman!!! Great name for a scientist and best forecaster of the political elections!!
@@fred-62Shhhh... quiet man. You're in "Ridin' with Biden" territory rn. They'll pile on you if you keep dunking on the 81 year old man with access to nukes whose brain is leaking out of his ears.
I thought the Democrats handled the Biden issue poorly. They showed no deference or respect to him. I love President Biden for endorsing Harris. He took Trump’s pawn.
Humphrey was gaining - but Mayor Daly hated "hippies" and called out the police in Chicago and it was a bloodbath that many had no stomach for. That was the difference in 1968
It hasn't in past elections. Al Gore was the incumbent Vice President and lost. But yes, being the President for only a few months before voting, while checking off a key, might not count for as much either. For Vice Presidents who were the new "incumbent" running for re-election, LBJ (who became President after Kennedy was assassinated in late November of 2023, just under a year before the next election) is the one who took office closest to the election - and that was still >11 months out. So there's no precedent for "does it help or hurt a candidate to become the incumbent
@@randallsmith5631 Nope me neither. The republicans have abandoned their moral conscience for donald. They permanently damaged their trustworthy level in being bipartisan lawmakers by doing that
3 keys are down. Key #3 Party Contest is shakey. However I think Harris will get solid support from the DNC 2024 delegates. So by Nov 2024 Harris will have 3 keys. They still win. Im betting big for Harris to win.
I think this is a good move. If Kamala takes over, that means she will only have one more term to serve. Chances would be better, according to the keys if she was encumbent, but if there is no political infighting over this then the dems will have a good chance of winning still. If Kamala wins then dems have a good chance of staying in white house for another 8 years. This could have dramatic impact on the supreme court as many of the justices are getting old.
Ok. Let’s rally. Everyone needs to get out and vote. If you have never registered in your life, this is the time to figure this system out. Register. Show up. Drop a ballot in blue for this entire world. The entire planet needs blue to vote.
What now is the Kamala team goes full steam campaigning. She needs to pick a strong white man as her VP, someone like Mark Kelly (if he's willing.) He ticks all the boxes and is a balance to JD Vance. That way the race can be about Kamala, sane, vs Trump, insane.
@@dabeage I like Josh Shapiro because he won a record landslide governor election with 3 million votes. Joe Biden won the state with 2.8. So that gives us an idea of how much support he has in Pennsylvania
Pelosi needs to come out and say she endorses because she is more interested in the money than the politics. We need to know who she will back. She needs not to be a thorn in our side.
Tell your representatives to rally behind Kamala Harris for president! You have influence here! This should be short, and quickly, as to not lose more keys, and start focussed campaigning against the evil thats MAga.
I don't believe for a moment that it would be just 4 more years of Donald Trump if he takes the White House again. I believe he would remain President until the end of his days, and then he'd pull some kind of BS where he makes Don Jr. his successor or something ridiculous. VOTE BLUE for the sake and sanity of our country.
Yup. 💯 If he gets in again, the only way he's leaving is feet first. The Supreme Court and the machinery that surrounds him will enable and support this. If this is the case, our country and republic will have had an approximately 250 year run. That will be how long we were "able to keep it" in Benjamin Franklin's words.
I believe a large part of why so many Dem party leaders piled on is because of the big $$$$ donors and caved to what THEY wanted. I heard they stopped giving--as in boycotted Biden, and Biden ended up being $90 million short, so far. Add to that BS is the fact orange Hitler has Elon Musk throwing $45 million each month at him. Just a reminder, 5 reichwing fascistic sociopaths in black robes decided in 2010 that "Corporations are ppl and $$$$= speech." Biden tried his best to reverse that in a small way and the big donors rejected him. Yes, he has slowed down and this is the time we need to get a fighter back in the white house, fighting for The People. Blue ballots would be a great idea. President Harris will need them.
