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Bobs not worried about anything! No economic problems here- except stocks and bonds are overpriced- so diversify into commodities- you mean Gold? thats ALSO at all time highs? That’s not overpriced ? You mean oil, natgas, soybeans? His answers are vague to say the least but I gotta admit, his confidence level is outstanding !! It’s somewhere between God and W Bush pitching Iraqi WMDs
I agree. I don't get his view. Not the first time I've heard it. As inflation has come down, real rates are going up and up and policy is actually getting more and more tight.
You guys ate just mad that there is no ideal thing to invest in usa right now. According to Bridgewater which he worked for before you gotta diversify across other markets including internationally. 😅
@thedavidlinreport Can you get this guy on with someone who is opposed to him for some healthy debate. I'm so confused how people can look at he same numbers and have literally the opposite opinions of outcome.
Every argument he made at minute 32:00 could have been accurately made in the fall of 2007. High GDP, high stock market, strong bond prices, low unemployment..etc... None of those are leading indicators.
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
yeah but thats not a really good argument either... what he is saying makes sense, more likely than not we are not yet on the way to recession not soon at least, the economy is still holding on, even if you feel pain from the inflation... bizz as usual.. the poor will suffer more but no recession yet
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on a california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
So… you think you understand better than Bob? Haha, that’s funny. He’s one of the most respected names on Wall Street. Everyone on this thread is butt hurt that Bob is saying things very contrary to what 99% of the guests on this show say, who are all doomsdayers. It might be sexy and interesting and attention-grabbing to say economic and financial collapse is imminent; reality is, it isn’t. But but but… we could already be in recession and not know it! Yeah, no shit… but that’s always the case. So what are you gonna do? Go 100% cash and wait? You’ve been waiting for 2 years now and have missed out on over 50% gains in the market. Stop listening to garbage takes that agree with yours… get out of your echo chamber!
I disagree that bonds are expensive... Why is everyone ignoring the inverted yield curve as if it no longer matters? Deep depression ahead is what I see in my crystal ball.
The everybody you reference get paid to pump stocks and have zero clue about either credit or the future? They destroyed duration or are in the process of losing total trust in the process? 30 YEARS OF COUPON CLIPPING!
Old woman from England here! Can't watch your channel without thinking of your remarkable, moving, beautiful playing of the violin. Thanks ever so much for sharing that with us. All the best ☺
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on a california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
I’m convinced that investing as little as 50k-150k in the right company before it goes big is more important than buying the dip, however picking the right company lies the difficult task. My question is, what are the best opportunities to accrue profits now, amid market crash?
for me, investors should start with S&P 500/ETFs for a solid foundation, then diversify across asset classes and maintain disciplined, regular investing to minimize risks and maximize growth.
The issue is people have the "I will do it myself mentality" but not equipped for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since covid-outbreak to date, summing up nearly $1m.
truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Monica Shawn Marti has always been on the top of my list..She is regarded as a genius in her area and well knowledgeable about financial markets. I highly recommend you look her up if you want excellent collaboration.
If u "revise" the last 3 years of cumulative inflation higher by 10% then we had 0 GDP growth n recession for last 3 years. Govt data is BS. Why dont big hedge funds publish n popularize their own version of of imp. data such as GDP inflation n jobs?
I think the problem is that Bob's logic is circular. With the stock market so strong, we're unlikely to have a recession. If / when stocks go down a lot, then that will hit consumer spending and a recession will be much more likely. He doesn't explicitly say all this...I've inferred it from this and previous interviews. I think there is nothing wrong with this disposition if you're trying to predict a recession. But most people listening to this are trying to predict the stock market. In which case waiting for the market to go down to predict a recession isn't helpful to most people.
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on a california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on a california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
Older viewers heard the same view from very smart people in banking before the GFC. Ordinary people lost their homes while the banks were bailed out by taxpayers. Hence many people distrust his assurances, especially now that the government statistics he relies on are known to be misleading by design. ☮️
In October 2022, Bob Elliott’s Unlimited Funds launched the HFND ETF, a multi-strategy return fund. Since its inception, HFND has gained 8.9%, but this performance pales in comparison to the S&P 500’s 29% increase over the same period.
"Cuts, if economy is falling apart" is likely too late. But cutting now will loosen control towards reducing (still) high inflation. So we have an economy that cannot act appropriately under normal lending conditions. And we are in a Recession which of course will also get back revised and glossed over.
I agree with Bob Elliott that it will be -25bp. And it will be that because they want to signal a SLOW pace of cuts. Great interview, hope you have him back.
8 minutes into the video so far and the guest has already made 2 mistakes. One of which is, the 800k jobs lost, only covered Q1 2024 (January through March)- NOT as he says, the past year. 2023 total jobs lost was 300k +.
The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.
navigating market volatility can be challenging, it might be beneficial consulting with an advisor to provide personalized insights based on your specific situation and financial position
No doubt, getting proper financial advice is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and just yielded 120% from early last year. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year.
‘’Jessica Lee Horst’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Wow, this is quite different than what I've been hearing in the last few months. Well, he's either full of __it, or somebody is way, way off on our economic health. Just before every crash....
26:51 is he calling a decade of stagflation? Stocks are over priced, bonds are over priced? There’s no credit risk? Growth isn’t slowing? Had nothing but opinions and used the platform to sell his product without saying what a sound strategy would be. Is he even interested in money besides what he can get from you? All I got was everything’s is over valued so it’s a good idea to be an already owner and not be a buyer. Thanks but I had that much figured on my own
@@VegasSportsGaming here watching and learning. in fact im asking what the guest is suggesting because he isn’t at all clear on what his position is and just suggests half of David’s questions are stupid without so much as making one coherent prediction himself. He was flat out rude
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on a california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
@@jcgoogle1808 my take exactly. his argument revolved around: ‘we expected these unemployment numbers to be revised so it was already priced in to market.’ (A market selling at all time high pe ratio..) then he explains jobless claims are higher because of season and extreme weather (a total unforeseeable) and not indicating a looming credit event or a future of market slowing. Rose color glasses is a very gentle way to describe incoherent rationale.
I hope this ages well, I'm no longer confident in my strategy following the recent happenings. I'm approaching retirement with comfortable millions. How do you advise i protect my cash reserve?
Many overlook that banks are return-driven businesses. I don't trust keeping a large sum in a bank. Instead, I invest with guidance, enjoy the benefits, than save for retirement.
After the '08 financial crisis, I've learned not to trust corporations. Since 2020, I've been investing with a financial adviser and have had major portfolio yields of over 88%, so I'm not going back to relying solely on banks.
My CFA Carol Vivian Constable, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Can someone verify if July retail data is correct? America all retail data June 2024 sales : -0.2% July 2024 sales : +1.0% Main contribution is from car sales Car related (new or resale car) June 2024: -3.43% July 2024 : +3.58% New car sales: June 2024: -0.16% July 2024 : -0.19% Resale car sales: June 2024: -1.53% July 2024 : -2.30% All car sales volume: May 2024: +5.0% June 2024: -3.0% July 2024: -2.8% With all car sales and volume drop in July 2024, how can we get +1.0% for July 2024 retail data ?
Good point which tells us that CPLie understates increases in prices. Shadowstats price index based on the original CPI basket tells us that prices have increased much more than reported by the CPLie. Adjusting nominal sales by the CPLie creates the false impression that sales are increasing. The reality is that people are paying more for fewer cars. ☮️
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on a california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
This Elliott guy is oblivious to a lot of the danger that is lurking in this deteriorating economy. He's the type of guy that is teed up to lose his shirt because he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. The major problem is that he's in the wrong room!
A lot of analysts said Fed's job numbers are flawed. USA lost about a million jobs. The reason the economy is still strong is because Fed spending to boost up the economy.
Hope this Guy is Totally Wrong about the near term future Growth Rate. I'm looking for the Yield Curve to Normallize and the Long End coming down at least by 2%.
So refreshing to see someone with a no BS straight to the point counter argument to all the commentators calling that we’re already in recession. Always enjoy Bobs take ‘👍
I really appreciate this guy's perspective. He makes a very clear case for the Fed not cutting rates as much as most investors anticipate. This is very helpful content, thanks for bringing it to us Mr. Lin!
Good conversation and arguments for his soft landing position,.. but if he were to take off his rose colored glasses, he'd see that the economy is unsustainably propped up with what was unnecessary unprecedented fiscal deficits. Now like a drug addict if the government reigns in the fiscal abuse,.. this economy would go down like kacklingkommiekamala on a california politician. Housing cost to income is multiples of any previous record highs. People can't afford homes. If they can't afford homes, they can't afford or need durable goods,.. furniture, washing machines,... Their debts are at all time highs,.. because energy, food, fast food,.. let alone going to a restaurant prices are double what they were just 3 years ago,.. so they can't even afford to remodel their homes, There goes the consumer,.. then there go consumer related businesses. The unemployment rate is on the verge of skyrocketing. Then there goes the economy growing from an anemic 1 to 2%,... even with 6 to 10% fiscal deficit spending attempting to prop it up,.. to growing at a negative 1 to 2% or lower.
@jcgoogle1808 Yes, all great points... we live in crazy times, i miss the nineties... As Eric Schmid said, the rich will get richer and the poor... well, they will do what they can... a truly dystopia look at the future...
I find it difficult to understand he says it is not going to be any different when fed cuts and we will go in a recession and then he says even if the rates stay where they are we won’t go in a recession? Someone help me understand???
“There is no credit risk” as if it’s a certainty. This makes me nervous…. I wonder what Ray Dalio’s dot collector would say. Can’t a bunch of billionaire friends just collude at any time by using underlying assets to go heavily leveraged short and cause a credit crisis?? (While getting ridiculously rich off their shorts) why is this not a possibility. “There is no credit risk”. Let’s remember you for these words.
I disagree !! The Fed will have to react to the loss of job vacancies and increasing unemployment by cutting interest rates by more than 25 points or cut by 25 points but institute a QE agenda as well !! 😮
@@prolific1518 - All true but unemployment figures are derived from a lagged indicator and corporations are shedding staff at an accelerating rate. The Fed will need to anticipate that with a sequence of interest rate cuts. As to the household survey, it is becoming increasingly clear that the, statistical data ha been politically influenced!! 🤔
This guy has some really nice rose colored glasses. I don’t think he realizes how overinflated asset values are and he also doesn’t realize that AI hasn’t any value to literally anything?
Where is the catalyst ? Consumer is maxed out in Debt and has no more buying power. Mcdonalds ...Starbucks ...Homedepot ... They all said the same thing.
Bob is enormously impressive. A measured man. I think there’s a higher chance of a recession than he appears to, but I don’t have the framework he has to justify that view.
@@seanburke424 incorrect smooth brain. Dollar and US stocks have gained value while other currencies have cratered and so have their markets. The market is propped.
We want Danielle Dimartino Booth! Edit: this guy is completely ignorant to the situation at hand. Why are you bringing on delusional people when you have important data to talk about? Stick to the economists like Hanke and Booth in times like this. I learned nothing from this guy.
