Bitcoin, Metals, and Monetary Premiums

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In this video, I discuss why platinum has never replaced gold as money, as well as why new cryptos have never replaced Bitcoin.
I also discuss how stock to flow is related to an asset's ability to be a good store of value, as well as why the best money would have no industrial usage and be comprised entirely of a monetary premium.
Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.
Top global assets by market cap:
companiesmarke...
Stock to flow comparisons between metals:
/ modeling-bitcoins-valu...
Clark Moody Bitcoin dashboard:
bitcoin.clarkm...
Monetary premium for different monetary goods:
x.com/real_vij...
I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos. My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.
#Bitcoin
#crypto
#gold
#platinum
Disclaimer
Neither Matthew Kratter's Bitcoin University, nor any of its directors, officers, shareholders, personnel, representatives, agents, or independent contractors (collectively, the “Operator Parties”) are licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisors, or registered broker-dealers. None of the Operator Parties are providing investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and nothing in this video, on this RU-vid channel, or at www.Trader.University or www.BitcoinUniversity.com (henceforth, “the Sites”) should be construed as such by you. This video, channel, and the Sites should be used as educational tools only and are not replacements for professional investment advice. Trading or investing in new and volatile assets like Bitcoin can be risky.

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1 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 145

@Bitcoin_University 6 часов назад

Please help to support this channel's work: www.youtube.com/@Bitcoin_University/join

@e21Mi 6 часов назад

Any thoughts on Giovanni's 'power law' model?

@SuperheroArmorychannel 5 часов назад

Everything on earth is trending to zero when priced in Bitcoin. This is the most important thing to understand!

@EmilGhiurau 39 минут назад

Yes, agreed. But the whales keep doing this thing where they sell, get the FIAT out and buy property, land, buildings, and then have assets where they can get loans, then get back in the BTC market, and rinse and repeat. Recent drop has that feeling now. Feel like those that stack, they are stacking sats, FIAT price is going down, and no hard assets on hand to get more money.

@orangejulius8366 2 часа назад

I saw that comment yesterday and my shoulders slumped, I sighed heavily and slowly shook my head. You have the patience of Job, sir.

@_datapoint 5 часов назад

I always learn something from this channel every day.

@Bitcoin_University 5 часов назад

That makes me very happy to hear

@Weldeborn 6 часов назад

YES! I get happy when I see a new video from you!

@Bitcoin_University 6 часов назад

I really appreciate your support

@jamesbrookhouser6643 4 часа назад

I had always wondered why Platinum hadn't replaced gold as a 'metal' store of value. Your video clearly explained why. Thank you! I always look forward to your videos as I learn something in each one.

@johnnymidas5879 6 часов назад

THANK YOU MATTHEW, AND GOOD MORNING ❤

@Bitcoin_University 6 часов назад

@AZmisc 5 часов назад

I think the original comment about platinum was sarcasm.

@Bitcoin_University 5 часов назад

You're right-- I misunderstood it

@Psodji 3 часа назад

Schelling Point - In game theory, a focal point (or Schelling point) is a solution that people tend to choose by default in the absence of communication. This is what Bitcoin is to its "platinum" competitors.

@Bitcoin_University Час назад

Great concept-- I should have mentioned it

@uTz11 4 часа назад

I always rush to view your videos. Great work as usual 🧡

@jabrowski_ 5 часов назад

Ty Mathew, learn so much from your channel

@markomare 3 часа назад

Hey Kratter, your content is great. A big hello from Serbia. Have you heard about the Power Law model? It's amazing...

@AndyManHexadeciweb3 6 часов назад

Learning is occurring 😊😊

@jhumphre 5 часов назад

Well-reasoned topic. But, Matthew, it’s a bit lazy to state that gold is everywhere, and PGEs are not. As someone who’s teaching applied geochemistry this semester, a fundamental tenet is that Earth resources are not homogeneously distributed across the globe. There are geological reasons for this. Why were there gold rushes in California, Colorado, and the Yukon, and not in Florida, Illinois, or Texas? Geologists know why. Of course, the flow of Pt is very low compared to Au or Ag because of the limited distribution of PGEs. Have a look at Solar System elemental abundances. I’m not disputing your point - at all! But occurrences mineral, metal, and energy resources are exceedingly complex. I always learn from you. Thanks.

@joaosas 4 часа назад

I've been watching your channel for a long time now and I'm pleased to see that you engage with your audience. My question is: how long until and what needs to be done to rebrand the basic unit (Satoshi) to Bitcoin. Most normies think Bitcoin is too expensive and that they missed the boat. But Satoshis are still cheap. Wouldn't that catalyse the adoption? After all, people suffer a lot from unit bias... Greetings from a portuguese Bitcoin only fan living in Germany.

@zackhighland7287 3 часа назад

Denke auch, wäre langsam Zeit über Satoshis zu reden statt Bitcoin... 👍

@prancer1803 2 часа назад

100% agree. Satoshis are indeed really cheap 👍

@zacharysmart8810 Час назад

Regarding Plan B's models, I recall his v1 model projected a price of ~50k. He later revised this using "updated" data, but I think it was mostly early data points with a much weaker basis. I always thought v1 was based on a more reasonable dataset. The model is also denominated in USD, which brings in another variable--the value of USD, and given the Fed rate hikes, I think it is reasonable to conclude that USD retained more value than it otherwise would have. For me, a stock-to-flow correlation makes sense.

@xDooksx 6 часов назад

The things that are on my mind.

@CRAIGBYRNE-kl8hi 6 часов назад

Good morning

@1rjona 5 часов назад

Note , China use to use silver and jade as a store of value. So even cultural affinity to a certain metal as a store of value can be overcome. Just as China switch from jade and silver to gold and eventually to Bitcoin , so will India, as more Indians HODL Bitcoin and see appreciate faster than gold

@davedismantled 2 часа назад

If the best strategy is to diversify away from fiat, then I like the trifecta of land, BTC and gold/silver.

@JeffONeill-sk6kv 4 часа назад

1980s Dungeons & Dragons game (odd-shaped dice) in retrospect provided a lot of these currency insights. Most kids had never heard of platinum, but it was more valuable than gold. Nonetheless, everything in the game (new shields, magic capes, etc.) was priced in gold, so you had to do the math to convert copper, silver, platinum coins based on fixed ratios. Also, with hauling around heavy sacks of coins slowing down your character, the qualities of BTC would have come in handy for those elves, dwarves, and wizard characters.

@LBBenton-q1r 4 часа назад

Hi Matthew - One question I have is this - If stock to flow ratio gets too high wouldn't that depreciate the value of the currency? If so, then there must be an optimum value for stock to flow. And, if that's the case, then wouldn't that be a number (for a monetary system) that equates to the growth rate of GDP which, I believe, is the desired amount for monetary expansion anyway. BTC wins on all counts regardless, as total supply remains fixed - a genius system. Thanks very much for your vids.

@STP134 Час назад

Thank you, Matthew! A highlight of my day!

@Fine_Times 6 часов назад

Ty matt🎉

@William-ph1xe Час назад

At approximately 9:32 AM EST, reports began circulating that Iran was imminently preparing to launch ballistic missiles at Israel. Interestingly, gold and Bitcoin responded in starkly opposite ways-gold surged while Bitcoin plummeted. This price action confirmed a long-standing frustration I have with Bitcoin: it behaves more like a risk asset than a true safe-haven. If Bitcoin were truly "digital gold," I would expect it to rise during periods of geopolitical turmoil, not decline.

@LarryRuane 5 часов назад

Love this, one of your best vids! I was arguing with a nocoiner who thought that the fact that bitcoin's supply can't respond to changes in its demand is a bug (rather than the feature that it is), because, he said, prices of all other things tend not to be as stable (as they would be with a money whose supply is responsive to demand). Having stable prices is desirable, but I think having the hardest possible money is much more desirable. Maybe you could address this in a future video.

@AngelicStreak 3 часа назад

Well objectively speaking, at 9:44 in the graph we can see that since 2021 the gold/BTC ratio seems to have been range-bound and going sideways, rather than showing continued demonetization trend.

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

One problem is that the chart is arithmetic when it should be logarithmic on the Y scale. The other is that Bitcoin is only in the beginning of this cycle but still has outperformed gold strongly since January 2023. Gold is now bouncing off its old low, compared to Bitcoin, and will be making a new low likely before the end of the year. 2025 will only see that worsen. Try setting your chart to Log mode. 😁

@AngelicStreak 2 часа назад

@@jamesthompson3099 Eh? If something is range bound since 2021 and going sideways, it absolutely doesn't matter if you use linear or logarithmic scale.

@hugomiller1025 2 часа назад

If I understand this correctly, Bitcoin has an 'inflation' rate of about 0.8%, dropping to zero by 2140. Genius though Satoshi undoubtedly was, I don't think we can assume that Bitcoin will be Mankind's last word on the subject. One day, who knows when, somebody will come up with an idea that we cannot yet conceive of. But Satoshi will forever be remembered as the man who kicked in the door to monetary freedom.

@alainelowell1997 6 часов назад

Thanks Matthew. Great info.

@easyhlife8021 4 часа назад

already btc network very useful will be specially layers 2 can build software and many nice stuff keep up

@gwynedd1 6 часов назад

Its not true and that was the point. Poe's law strikes again, but I am glad it made for good content which was the intent. I thought what platinum did to gold, which was nothing, was clear enough. Poe just ropa dopes my satire.

@Bitcoin_University 6 часов назад

Sorry, I thought you were serious, rather than being ironic

@gwynedd1 5 часов назад

@@Bitcoin_University Nah that's OK. I found it funny. However I think it is a very good analogy because its all true that platinum has all these advantages in isolation to gold. I ask rhetorically, how often do we see the same with the next better chain?

@justingarrett0824 2 часа назад

@@gwynedd1 glad i scrolled through the comments. i can see the irony now.

@Restorection92 5 часов назад

Nice video but BTC is actually losing value against Gold (mentioned at 9:40), and has been losing value against gold for quite a bit this year. Its important this year due to increased risks of WW3, Major recessions, etc... which is when you want something like Gold. Recent geopolitics tensions also show BTC acting more like a risk on equity than Gold. Time will tell if that changes but as it stands BTC is definitely trending downwards against Gold. Still, good video, informative as always.

@Krackhead 3 часа назад

'Oh no, one year' Stop nitpicking

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

@Restorection92 2 часа назад

@@Krackhead Pretty important year my friend lol, also BTC peaked when priced in Gold in 2021, so thats about 3 years.

@Krackhead 2 часа назад

@Restorection92 it doesn't matter. How high is bitcoin compared to gold throughout its history? You remind me of this silly news article I read online a while back, some economist writer that people shouldn't buy gold to preserve their purchasing power because 'sometimes gold goes down' and I shit you not - they nitpicked a two year period in which gold went lower, completely ignoring all of the previous price history and the price after that period. Kind of like you just did actually.. Of course, bitcoin could crash from here, but the likelihood that it does is very low, and even then, it has to remain down after that.

@Restorection92 Час назад

@@Krackhead Dude - You are subscribed to a cult mentality. Think rationally and clearly. You are very clearly emotional about this. BTC needs to do 18x its current price to match the market cap of Gold. If you think it will go 18x anytime soon, you are delusional. Everyone has heard of Bitcoin at this point. You think India or China are adopting BTC as they are Gold? No. Thats 3 billion people. Almost half the worlds population. Calm down, stack your sats and wait. BTC aint dethroning Gold any time soon. Doesnt mean you shouldn't hold both. FFS dont be one of these people that think Bitcoin will replace everything before the 30s.

@joshuabirkhoff9704 2 часа назад

Stock-To-Flow should always be regarded in the context of energy. If you only use a small amount of energy for finding a certain commodity, the stock-to-flow value becomes large. This opens doors for manipulation. It makes more sense to ask how much energy in average do you need to find a unit of a commodity.

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

For bitcoin, that can be as low as you want or as high as you want. Production is not driven by the amount of energy available. it is driven by the hash rate and difficulty adjustment. It will always be 18.75 BTC/hr until 2028 regardless of energy production.

@joshuabirkhoff9704 Час назад

@@jamesthompson3099 Thank you! A good comment. You are right. "Sadly", we can not measure gold in hr. Gold has (of course) a difficulty adjustment. If you dig more by using more energy, you have to dig deeper next time. Thinking in energy is a way to make BTC comparable to gold.

@toddwise7644 3 часа назад

Hi Matthew - I keep hearing people talking about a Quantum Resistant Ledger that is supposedly the safest way to hold btc or shipcoins. I was wondering if you'd consider educating us on this, perhaps something you could bring up in a future video. Thank you for your consideration.

@moneycrab 6 часов назад

In my experience dealers and pawn shops buy at 80% of spot and sell at 100%+ of spot. So at a minimum you’re gonna have to hold for years to exceed 20% gains. Very slow, very boring and not likely to be lucrative

@SuperheroArmorychannel 5 часов назад

Yes this is actually true in many countries around the world. I have verified it firsthand in my travels. In America gold typically sells at spot or slightly below but when you buy it the premiums are huge. And yes it can take years just to break even because of this scam.

@beefquiche 4 часа назад

Noone will read this, but fk it. So.. Platinum is made in the heart of a dying star, just like gold. It takes 14B years for a star to go into supernova, and within a millionth of a second, at the moment of absolute collapse (pre explosion), platinum is made. It then makes its way to earth, and other celestial bodies, by way of meteorites (debris from the explosion). TLDR platinum ain't "new"

@louottaknow 6 часов назад

Sweet!

@p00ka64 3 часа назад

Great content

@2weldit 3 часа назад

Possibly one reason S2F didn't work well last cycle was all the paper btc ftx and others were selling.

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

Plan B's problem was that his model was exponential while Bitcoin grows logarithmically. Eventually the targets were going to overshoot the reality and that happened stating last cycle. It will diverge more and more from price as time goes on.

@colinpatricklindsay 6 часов назад

Morning everyone!

@krob1957 3 часа назад

Peter Schiff liked this vid. 🙂

@mchappster3790 6 часов назад

How do you think the world will cope if the transition to a Bitcoin standard ends up hurting lots of poorer individuals holding debt?

@_outofphase5480 6 часов назад

Debt deflates on a BTC standard. It also does somewhat on the current standard, though not nearly as effectively. I don’t see where a BTC standard could possibly make a poor persons situation even worse. Rather, it will be the best opportunity to mitigate the burden of their debt.

@Fudmottin 5 часов назад

Using the metals analogy, would plutonium be the "hot potato" money?

@Profanity42069 6 часов назад

Just to follow up from yesterday. Not your keys, not your coins. Bitcoin is for your friends and you enemies. Both of these statements are problematic with small blocks because eventually most users will not be able to use the base chain.

@THOMPSON8787 6 часов назад

That's why we have lightning and liquid. And the fees are extremely low right now. 4 sat/v-byte or like .34-.50 max approximately. That whole narrative is overblown and will be solved accordingly if and when it ever happens

@andrewvader9077 5 часов назад

I didn't mind Plan Bs videos. It was another way looking at it.

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

@andrewvader9077 Час назад

@@jamesthompson3099 the human element is something you can log lol. The more ppl and bigger pockets.. the harder you can guess

@jamesthompson3099 Час назад

@@andrewvader9077 ...and the higher the difficulty adjustment grows. Production is fixed. Price is not determined by production in Bitcoin.

@rosstituteuk 4 часа назад

Precious metals will resume their role when a large enough CME destroys earths electrical grid, as part of the ongoing geomagnetic excursion.

@AMoses 3 часа назад

States starting to accept bitcoin!

@Namegoeshere-op9hg 4 часа назад

Platinum isn’t well distributed. 90% is in South Africa.

@Bitcoin_University 4 часа назад

Good to know

@j-p-1 Час назад

Could you explain why you think S2F model from Plan B is wrong? it was still within it bounderies in the last cycle.

@Bitcoin_University 28 минут назад

I can't remember the exact details, but Plan B himself said something like that if the average weekly price of BTC was not $150,000 over the 4-year cycle, then the original model would be considered to have failed

@tutkarz 5 часов назад

It always makes me laugh when someone uses the argument that bitcoin is worthless because it is not used as a raw material in the economy like gold. After all, the fact that someone speculates on raw materials used in economics is a disadvantage, not an advantage. It's good that bitcoin is not used like gold because by buying it we do not artificially increase the prices of finished products. People buying gold as store of value are actually increasing inflation.

@pran10000 4 часа назад

Self custody only!!

@husaberg650 Час назад

Had to re-subscribe. Anyone else have this issue?

@427vot 6 часов назад

Attack vector on BTC - Artificially duplicate golds portability problems through legislation and force it into being a "financial product" which is what happened to gold because of its portability problems.

@LarryRuane 5 часов назад

I'm not sure what you're saying here. I think bitcoin avoids what happened to gold by being portable while also held self-custodially. With gold, you had to choose one or the other (except for in-person direct physical exchange, which has become much more rare on the modern global economy).

@427vot 3 часа назад

@@LarryRuane Yes, since bitcoin is not "physical" the way gold is, it is much easier to transact with. So, my assertion is that governments wanting to limit BTC will try to artificially make it hard to move around by implementing taxes and laws that limit peer to peer transfers. Im just thinking about future challenges we will have to go through.

@hdog17 3 часа назад

I see what your saying, but wouldn’t monetizing wasted energy be an industrial use?

@prasun6084 2 часа назад

No, bitcoin isn't being used to produce something. Wasted energy being industrially used here to produce bitcoin.

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

@@prasun6084 It is not wasted but stranded. This is potential production that had nowhere else to go. It can be reclaimed as needed for emergencies but then the hash rate drops, dropping the difficulty, and production continues apace. It isn't an issue. Energy is not a price driver in Bitcoin.

@agrxdrowflow958 5 часов назад

Yeah, I gave up on Plan B too.

@Atlas_21 5 часов назад

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

@BryanBCabalo 51 минуту назад

Human culturally, Gold represents 1st in the Olympics world wide, and the work behind earning a Gold medal (in objective sports with no subjective judging) Humans don't award Platinum metals in the Olympics for 1st, at least today and historically.

@Bitcoin_University 26 минут назад

Good point. Interestingly, there weren't gold medals in the Olympics until 1904. Ancient Greeks preferred olive wreaths

@joey86bu1 3 часа назад

MK!!!

@maryros3249 3 часа назад

BTC PUMPING BY STABLE COIN FOR 2009

@prasun6084 2 часа назад

😂 Stable coin didn't exist before 2014.

@jeffreywalsh817 6 часов назад

How does the IRS know if you spend or convert Bitcoin?

@THOMPSON8787 6 часов назад

because you have to sell Bitcoin on an exchange 99% of the time. Every exchange is required by US law to gather all the info about its users called KYC, know your customer

@chingron 5 часов назад

@@THOMPSON8787Plus… in the future… if a business accepts bitcoin payments, such as a coffee shop, and you purchase a coffee from there, they will simply look at the CCTV footage from the street cameras to see who made the purchase to the coffee shop bitcoin address. They will then know your Bitcoin address. Hopefully, there will be privacy solutions in the future if they don’t already exist.

@SuperheroArmorychannel 5 часов назад

Sell BTC on a non-KYC exchange into USDT and then move it to a crypto debit card for spending. You’re welcome

@jeffreywalsh817 5 часов назад

@@SuperheroArmorychannel If you buy on a KYC exchange and move to a private wallet does the IRS consider that spending?

@chingron 5 часов назад

@@SuperheroArmorychannel Something tells me that even this could easily be tracked by the method I described… And certainly the IRS has mapped out the addresses of non-KYC exchanges… A street CCTV camera is all that is needed to link your face to your wallet. And even online… won’t they know your name and address of your crypto CC?

@chingron 5 часов назад

These people love to talk about “tech”, even though they have never read a single line of code… but their biggest problem is that they don’t understand money and what makes a good money. At the same time… they do have a point, even if that point is derived by accident: the dollar certainly isn’t the best money… and yet… it is the money. This is my fear about Bitcoin. It may be the best money, but that doesn’t mean it will win. They say the best money wins… but looking at our current money… that simply isn’t true.

@chingron 5 часов назад

And I see now that the guy was being satirical with his comment, so my comment is not directed at him, but rather, the people who are not being satirical, of which, there are many…

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

Our current currency has an unlimited stock and unlimited production. It is a horrible money and at some point will collapse. We just haven't gotten there quite yet. Bitcoin has a fixed supply and a fixed, shrinking production cycle. Very different things. 😃

@Jackson-l3r 5 часов назад

😂😂 is it safe to say that ship coiners are also responsible for the surge in platinum?

@ArchStanton-xx6sj 5 часов назад

Actually gold can withstand thousands degrees heat in recent research

@SuperheroArmorychannel 5 часов назад

😂Gold melts at 1064 C degrees. Study more.

@ArchStanton-xx6sj 5 часов назад

@SuperheroArmorychannel i don't need to study it, it was a recent study anyway I prefer blowing things up than being a melter

@ArchStanton-xx6sj 5 часов назад

@SuperheroArmorychannel scientists in Queens University used high intensity lasers, contrary to expectations the metal stopped melting and became harder and stronger past a certain heat threshold. Funny I knew I read it recently I didn't realise the study was done in my city, so Google it, Dr Emma mc Bride school is maths and physics. So I guess you owe me an apology I wonder if ya have the decency to admit it

@ArchStanton-xx6sj 4 часа назад

@Idontdohandles 4 часа назад

Great topic... but silver once was the money gold was, no? (pound sterling?) and tech back then did not have silver in commercial use. No reason gold, and btc too for that matter, can't end up as commercial use in a future tech world that finds some bizzare commercial use for the metal or the crypto... like idk.. seeding the skies with gold flakes to prevent certain atmospheric problems on a certain heavenly body lol. Yes I know too much tin foil hat for this channel sorry!!

@SchmittycocoPop 5 часов назад

What if Satoshi appears and dumps their bitcoin? This would crash bitcoin. I find it unlikely but you cant rule it out. Thx for another informative video.

@robreke 2 часа назад

Platinum is at all time lows and gold is at all time highs LOL, what a misguided argument

@MarcoFiocco 5 часов назад

What happens to bitcoin if there is a third world war or a catastrophic event? Without electricity end internet bitcoin might be useless compared to more portable things like precious metals, gems etc

@prasun6084 2 часа назад

Then you should prepare by living with Amish and stay away from internet.

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

In that case, the last question on your mind will be dollars, gold, silver or Bitcoin. It will be stark survival.

@opinetree 6 часов назад

Is Bitcoin capable of being compliant to new banking regulations? Basel III and ISO 20022. From what I have found so far, the answer is NO!

@e21Mi 6 часов назад

Bitcoin doesn't care

@SuperheroArmorychannel 5 часов назад

😂Why would Bitcoin want to comply with any regulations? 🤡

@Atlas_21 5 часов назад

The whole point of Bitcoin is that it's outside of the banking system. Basel can go f themselves.

@e21Mi 3 часа назад

@@SuperheroArmorychannel it only complies with physics and mathematics

@prasun6084 2 часа назад

🤣🤣🤭🤭🤣🤣

@kavijon 4 часа назад

Let's face it we all sense it now. Bitcoin is being manipulated by the big players Blackrock and coinbase. Wheather or not this will continue as bitcoin become more universally used. But right the price should be exploding with all the inflows. But it just keeps crabbing sideways

@jamesthompson3099 2 часа назад

You haven't been in Bitcoin long, have you? This is typical action. Screaming up, flat, screaming up, screaming down, flat. Rinse and repeat.