Exactly the same! Is Mike perfect in Excel or in probability or in Blackjack? I can make the same but I will spend few days as minimum... Absolutely crazy and excellent!
Thank you! I tried this on my own, but eventually caved and followed this video. The organization of the tables helps immensely. I expanded on this idea while I followed along, so my table also has an entry for the true count which can be used to see how strategy changes as the true count goes up/down. It's very cool to be able to derive deviations like this! I suspect I can figure out the relative value of each deviation by subtracting its expected value from the expected value of the BS strategy for those cards. That seems like too much for now, but I'll keep it in mind for the future.
Very nice. Very impressive. I admire how quickly you put that together. I really do. MANY, many years ago, when I first learned how to code, I also duplicated the Basic Strategy charts... but by comparison, I did it the hard way. I wrote a program that simulated the game of blackjack and tested EVERY DARN POSSIBLE HAND hundreds of thousands of times, to determine the best action. As I recall, the program took me a week or so to code and debug! Good work, Mike.
+deannny14 Back then I was writing in a language known as PowerBASIC. (Which is still being maintained and still available to purchase.) Alas, this was many years and many computers ago and I no longer have a copy of the program or the source code.
Thank you for the kind words. I, too, have very involved blackjack programs. You have to introduce some short cuts to keep the running time in hours, as opposed to years. Too much to explain here, but maybe I'll make a video on how to code an analysis of blackjack.
@@TheOddsMustBeCrazy Hi Mike, I am really impressed with your knowledge of Blackjack and the math behind it. I am right now writing a program for simulating a few card counting strategies as I am finding EVData a bit insufficient to cater to my needs. Would love to hear if you have any tips for me
@@TheOddsMustBeCrazy It wasn't boring, oh how long was it? Lol just joking brother. We could have chatted if you answered the phone. Question Please: Playing either straight Blackjack and or Backjack Pairs they both keep the 10's in the shoe or Auto Shuffler machine. Does this straight Basic card you just formed, if followed with both games? (I do understand if in playing Spanish 21 the 10's are removed, then another Basic play card will need to be followed right?) Thanks brother for spending your time explaining this to us all. Sam..
Thanks Michael for an excellent video. I had assumed that these tables were created with Monte-Carlo simulations and never realised how elegant the maths could be when you derive the result of an outcome from ones calculated already. Wizard of ¿Excel? :)
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At 18:59 The Wizard says that from 12 and on, doubling numbers are a little bit different because the ace must count as a one (12 +11 = 23 which is a bust) But if he has a hard 11, the Ace ALSO must count as a one because 11 + 11 = 22 which is also a bust! So I don't understand why the Wizard said this for a 12 and not an 11.
In reality it doesn't make a difference because it references to the standing numbers and on the stand sheet, the soft numbers just reference the hard numbers
The basic strategy varies depending on the rules of the game. Some casinos you can’t double after splitting a pair. You can’t split 44 if you can’t double after splitting against any up card.
Hiya! Great work here. Just curious, is there a way to modify this spread sheet to calculate the basic strategy for a finite number of decks? Or that only derivable from simulations. Thanks!
Is this Michael Shackelford from Milwaukee Wisconsin area? I went to high school with a kid by that name several years back and he was smart enough to become a doctor. One of the real brains of the class. Just wondering if this is what he did with his life LOL great stuff.
The dealer has a higher probality of negative 1 with a bust. A dealer can win on a bust if the player busts first. Only the player is a 100% negative on a bust.
Very clear and easy to follow up to 6:12-6:22. I was totally lost after that. How does the formula in cell 11B apply to all other cells for the 7 possible outcomes (bust & 17-21) up to 16? The cells were empty so where do all the numbers come from?
Great video, I've been messing around with blackjack probabilities in excel and haven't been able to reason it out as you have, thanks! Question though: Is there any way, using this layout, to adjust for deck sizes? I want to be able to compare this "infinite" or continuous shuffle deck to a double deck shoe. Or a 6 deck shoe since those are most common where I live. If it's possible to explain without wearing you out could you help me with this? Thank you.
Excellent video! Mike, I have a question for you. I live in Canada where you are allowed to surrender vs any dealer upcard except for Ace. I believe this is called Early Surrender vs Ten because you are allowed to surrender vs a dealer upcard of 10 even if the dealer eventually draws an Ace for a blackjack. Remember this is Canada where the dealer does not draw a hole card and only takes his second card after all players have made their decisions. Where could I find a basic strategy chart for this game? Here are the other rules:- if dealer gets blackjack he takes only original bet after doubles and splits- 6 deck- dealer hits soft 17- double after split - double any two cards- re-split to 4 handsThanks!
why is your hit sheet base on your hs sheet? You constructed your hit sheet with your hs sheet but your hs sheet was constructed with your hs and stand
At 18:57 the if you double the eleven, and draw an ace, it also has to count as a 1, right? If it counts as an eleven you bust or am I missing something obvious? pls answer
Thanks a lot for those two videos on Blackjack from scratch! I was able to redo your great work here with the help of your two videos! My question is at 5:58 and following: why don't you simply include those terms like 4*{cell} and {cell} into the Sum-formula?
At 27:01 The Wizard said he is only calculating for splitting once, to keep it simple. And since it refers to the hsd sheet, that means that this is for a game in which doubling is allowed after that one split. If doubling after split is not allowed, then use the hs sheet.
He also says you get only one card after splitting aces, so uses the standing sheet, which also means there's no opportunity to double after splitting aces.
I guess it is because you can not get a set of cards with a value higher than 31. Lets assume you have a hard 21 and you hit (ridiculuos), then the maximum you could get would be 31 (that is if you get a 10)
@@trevorsakias5853 thanks for the information, I don't know how the European BJ works, I was curious if the dealer already got 21, why they still hit, another question is at time stamp 5:46, why the total 17, start from D11, not C11 which exclude 3? Thanks
why does the expectation never become zero or even in the hit or hs sheet in any cell? doesn't the dealer and player stand an even chance when they hold the same value hand?
there's 2 reasons it's never zero: 1. The player can do whatever he wants, the dealer is forced to stand at 17 and hit at 16, so whilst the hands may be equal the options available to the players aren't. 2. Sometimes though the best strategy is to do what the dealer has to do, however in these situations the dealer actually has a big advantage because in the event that both the player and the dealer go bust the dealer still wins.
Boa noite. Sou Sidnei, um brasileiro, mestrando em Matemática e minha tese é sobre o uso do Blackjack para ensinar Análise Combinatória e Probabilidade. Se possível, me ajude a compreender como é construída a tabela com as probabilidade do crupiê /dealer rebentar(bust)
I've recreated that spreadsheet through my own methods and have the exact same results for 2-9 for the dealer up cards, but your 10 and Ace dealer up card results differ from mine, for instance, do you really believe that there is ONLY a 7.78% chance to end up with a 21 from an ACE dealer up card? I ended up with around 36.16% for that value.
Yea you're right, definitely an issue in his sheet, hopefully he will comment. Quickly glancing at it I would say the 7.78% is only accounting for the probability of getting 21 AFTER ending up with soft total other than blackjack.... Obviously the probability of blackjack with Dealer Ace is 4/13... I think the formula in cell K8 should be something like: =(SUM(AG16:AO16)+4*AP16)/13 Then copy paste that formula in the rest of column K for the American calc, which yields 36.16% as you indicated. For the error he has with the 10s - I think he also left out the probability of getting blackjack when you have a 10... so I think the formula in column J should be: =(SUM(L16:S16)+4*T16+AP16)/13
@@michaelivie362 Actually I think I figured it out, he does not include the instances where the dealer gets a blackjack as you mentioned so he divides by 12 in the 10s section and by 9 in the Aces section on the second card dealt rather than 13 as he does for the 2-9 dealer up cards. I was able to make a peek and no peek version of both 10s and Aces that include my original results, and the peek versions which match up with his results.
@@DSteves Oh ok, i didn't watch the entire thing yet so didn't see that, I suppose that's possible, but 8% seems too low if the only variable changes is American vs Euro with BJ peek. Hopefully I can try to rebuild it and add the features I want next weekend. I want to basically build a game in excel to automate 6 other players at a table playing by the book and me using specific strategies. Also want to easily toggle on different game conventions and deck counts and have another macro to just run thousands of hands.
With an infinite number of decks, it would just be recursive, you could do multiple iterations and let it converge. But better yet, just do 3 iterations and don't worry about it converging because generally you can't split to more than 4 hands anyway, and if you're playing the kelly criterion, you wouldn't really want to either.
i have allways wondered if dealer chooses to play like he does, is this not the best strategy for the game. he allways wins like that. i still don't get it
The reason a player will not have an advantage if they play the "dealer's strategy" is because the player always hits/stands first, so the player is taking the risk of busting before the dealer even has the chance to, no matter what hand the dealer may have.
Hello, where I play you can only double with 9-10-11 hard or soft. does this change the math on "split if double after split is allowed, otherwise hit"? Or splitting is only if you can double with any number? 6 decks Dealer has never a face down card Dealer stands on soft 17 Double on any first two cards allowed if they are 9-10-11 Double after split allowed surrender allowed but not vs A Player may re-split to four hands, including aces Thanks
WTF? I mean MY excel file is grades of magnitude more readable and can also calculate deviations because it accepts variable available cards but yours is sooo simple. You hard coded half a dozen ones and then cascade every calculation from them. Very impressive. Two things I dont like though, first is that you did the H17 instead of S17 which I can't understand why and second is that I don't believe you are differentiating between a natural Blackjack and a 21. I have enjoyed your site the wizard of odds for many years now and it is the only site in which basic strategy matched my own calculated one regarding surrendering 88/77 vs T and hitting instead of splitting AA vs A.
There's one factor that I didn't hear you mention. Don't these probabilities change based on the other players' cards that are being played since they are removed from the remaining pool of cards?
+Jenny Titus Not unless you are card counting and at the end of the shoe. Other players affecting your play is a common misconception. The pool of cards is effectively too large to be influenced, and even if it wasn't, you dont know what card is next up. Play is the same for 1 or any numbers of players. The biggest worry you have is other ignorant players thinking you screwed up their odds.
@@TheOddsMustBeCrazy This is great! Any tips on how to make such a spreadsheet for an 8-deck shoe? I assume we would need entries for every combination of player/dealer cards?
I think this is bullshit because those formulas don't make sense. I'm a Mathematician and I tried doing this in Excel and it doesn't work. Then too, I'm like who does adding up values that are all empty magically give this guy all these percentages. There's some major pieces missing here.
