BLOODBATH: Fund Traders Sell While Farmers Hold (Corn Prices)

Подписаться 15 тыс.

Просмотров 18 тыс.

50% 1

Joe's Premium Subscription: standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📉 Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts 🌦️📊
Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:
Grain Price Decline
Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment
Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.
Weather Impact and Forecast
Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.
US Crop Conditions
Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.
Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington.
Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports
Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.
Ongoing Developments
Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these issues affecting agriculture, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest information to help you understand the dynamics affecting global agriculture and markets.
💬 Join the Conversation:
How do you think these developments will impact global agricultural markets? What are your views on the current weather patterns affecting crop conditions? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your input is crucial for our discussions.

Развлечения

Опубликовано:

8 июл 2024

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист

Посмотреть позже

Комментарии : 87

@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff 13 дней назад

Today's premium video will answer a ton of questions regarding "The Funds." Signup at www.standardgrain.com

@user-tv5wi7vk8d 13 дней назад

Its obvious that the board of trade is not designed to benefit the farmer. The problem could be easily solved by not allowing short sales without physical ownership of the product and having multiple delivery points. Positive basis all over proves the point. Much more could be said but you may as well talk to a fence post.

@debi5292 13 дней назад

good points. I would love to see a rule that makes it illegal to trade for 30 days after either taking or removing a paper position on the board of trade.

@verdigrishunts6165 13 дней назад

Fence posts are completely covered with big yellow grasshoppers in Oklahoma. They don't say much

@user-gu7uy2dw4t 13 дней назад

The only reason they think there is so much grain in the farmers hands is because the numbers are not correct from last year yeilds were lower itll show it's face soon enough.

@robdorman8802 13 дней назад

Agree 100%

@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff 13 дней назад

"There is no point in saying 'good morning' because it certainly is not one."

@JackHawkinswrites 13 дней назад

What side of the grass are you on, Snowflake?

@lilblackduc7312 13 дней назад

You've got Food Security, hot/cold running water, a private bathroom and hygene, electricity, internet access, transportation, sanitation. Besides the market, you're blessed.

@ttanne7838 13 дней назад

I heard one cattle guy gloat about cheap corn.

@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff 13 дней назад

...this is a quote from the evil Nancy Pelosi. It's an attempt at humor, relax guys.

@davezalinko1354 13 дней назад

I woke up to see the sun .. to me that’s a good start. 😊

@SpiritWind1957 13 дней назад

Using the futures is very beneficial. This is not hard. Learn to hedge and follow the trend. The old saying of the trend is your friend is soo true. Relieve the stress and quit fighting the markets, learn to use them and you can farm another year.

@Maynardmatt 13 дней назад

Feels like a staring contest… Who is going to blink first, the farmer or the funds? Eventually, the insurance companies are going to send a lot of cash out to farmers if this keeps up!

@jonstevensmaplegrovefarms3754 13 дней назад

If only farmers could work together and regulate their production to help make more value in their product. And or we work together and hold our product until we have a good price

@jtn-minn8105 13 дней назад

The NFO called that collective bargaining... Getting farmers all on the same page is like pushing a rope to herd up a bunch of cats.lol.

@thomaslthomas1506 13 дней назад

from what I am seeing /hearing in the hail damage is substantial. The new storm track may do more damage than good.

@michaelrust7614 13 дней назад

Farmers have their corn planted. Seed is paid for, fuel is paid for, chemicals paid, fertilizer paid, and 1st propertytaxes and insurance is paid. So if we're holding corn, there is no urgent need to sell.

@davehughesfarm7983 13 дней назад

Id say over half do Not have half those expenses paid for...And I;m using myself and buddies as a barometer whom dont have shiny new paint..

@michaelrust7614 13 дней назад

@davehughesfarm7983 I give due respect to you and your buddies. I just looked out my window and made sure my 1086's have not been repainted since I got up today.🫠

@ryanmarkey5012 13 дней назад

Nobody wants to spend money or pay taxes so leave it in the bin.

@chadspurling7411 13 дней назад

I farm in East Central Missouri. Corn overall looks really good, but beans are really struggling with too much moisture and very poor weed control at this point. Low areas in Soybean fields are drowning out. I know it's a small area, but we could have a really good corn crop and really crap beans.

@davehughesfarm7983 13 дней назад

Same as NW and N Central Mo..

@ken8334 13 дней назад

Maybe corn isn't in the bin.

@andrewchristenson5963 13 дней назад

According to someone I know in Southern MN, lots of grain facilities full of grain because farmers won't sell. He's a large pig farmer and what's to contract buy corn, but they won't do it because farmers are not selling

@rainey4035 13 дней назад

Lots of corn in bin around here, heard lots of reports of rapidly diminishing quality. People not used to holding not keeping corn in condition.

@farmermatt629 13 дней назад

My thoughts exactly bins are empty around here

@thomaslthomas1506 13 дней назад

@@andrewchristenson5963 There may be contracts not getting filled. IDK I am hearing the same things from family.

@sandsock 13 дней назад

i dumped all my unpriced dp grain yesterday, wasnt alot. i may have 2 wagons of beans in the bin and maybe 1000 bushels of corn i need to load up . when i'm not busy with everything else. beans wont be bad , the corn bin sucks in this heat. but basically empty

@debi5292 13 дней назад

Cleaning up bin floors this morning. Told crop share landlord to never plan on selling anything between the 4th of July and the first of next year. The market steals 6 months of possible sales nearly every year. A demand driven market flips to a supply driven market and here we are.

@davehughesfarm7983 13 дней назад

Usually July and August are about the highest...

@Blackearthexcavationandtiling 13 дней назад

Summer 2022, economic bubble popped, fed went to restrict ...and decline began... bear grain market since ....harvest in south, over supply, lack of demand ... fed cant control supply, but they can restrict which kills demand....until the fed pivots, there will not be any decent prices

@user-kc9xu9tm3n 13 дней назад

Put options have sure paid off this year.

@agwhoneedsaphd2643 13 дней назад

How can we get the funds to deliver these cheap commodities?

@6by6by6 13 дней назад

Blame RU-vid farmers.. they only grow crops for video content and don’t care what the price of commodities are, they all build more bins and store more grain so they can show themselves loading and shipping their grains… 😂 Every Farmer should be a RU-vid, Instagram, TikTok influencer… Blame Zack Johnson.. Doug Larson Ivers Farms .. and the rest for your failing markets …

@willienelson2078 13 дней назад

Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and cauldron bubble.

@BK5250 13 дней назад

Looks like it might be a repeat of 2020. There is all this corn around until there isn't. Weather will reflect it soon enough. Very dry here in PA, not drought dry, but very dry. Hopefully prices will be corrected.

@HillCountry11 13 дней назад

I don't think this has much to do with the fundamentals here. More to do with arbitrage trading. Buying the paper here and presenting the paper for delivery elsewhere where the price is considerably higher. France is/was $1.75 over for corn. China double the price. Also it would be prudent to throw in a social affect possibility. Disney will not hire white males. And there has been other issues on this by the "woke" culture emanating through our society. The grain farmers are both predominantly white and part of the wonderful basic nuclear family unit in the country that some would like destroyed. If given some true analytical thought, the possibility of these two scenarios being a greater part, in what seems to be a very unfair and manipulated market, would be considered. Who else produces necessary products and has to sell them for a loss? Last I knew farmers had tractors, tillage tools, and lights on these for an early "harvest" could be a solution and a rebuttal to this. Sorry to some, but this needed pointed out in today's world and by no means carries any prejudicial or racial ill will.

@billgallagher2797 13 дней назад

😮 Wow what a rant! Who knew that Disneys hiring practices were partly responsible for the collapse of the corn and soy markets🤔

@HillCountry11 13 дней назад

@@billgallagher2797 Look also at what is happening in South Africa. The world keeps getting smaller.

@notsimplyorganic1053 13 дней назад

I don't think people realize the raw unbridled hatred the political class has for the average person. If the last 3.5 years hasn't shown that to you, i guess it means you're fine with the world of hell that is coming

@jimmyglen 13 дней назад

Lots of rain around St. Louis

@don66hotrod94 13 дней назад

It looks as if most of us will have risked it all for a return of nothing. Kinda takes the fun out of it. Certainly glad I didn't buy a million dollar combine last year.

@davehughesfarm7983 13 дней назад

They can have it..

@joshcourrier3451 13 дней назад

lets just give the shit away for free. we don't need money

@JAB00777 13 дней назад

So the host said that the biggest reason that the market is so low is that farmers are holding on to old crop in storage yet 🤔 ....gee , He just exposed the real reason by accident .....that the brokers are going to tank the market until the corn is in their control so that the brokers can make A killing again bundling and flipping contracts .... 💰💰💰😠😠😠

@mbailey12341 13 дней назад

Anyone that pays $275-$400 for cash rent was obviously trying to get rid of some extra cash. The fat lady is singing….

@patmcdonald766 13 дней назад

HOLD to CLOSE Break the fund money managers

@waylinvanhalen 13 дней назад

FML is farmer motto

@sandsock 13 дней назад

n/w central ohio. local grain pit guys says that the june wheat contracted, was 20,000 bushels shy of the 500,000 bushels contracted. they think the guys with bins might make up the estimated /predicted harvest. but they arent taking into account all the uncontracted acres. wait till the usda has to report the wheat harvest was much smaller than fantasized about. i dont know how much smaller but its smaller, maybe 20%

@christopherschulz2936 13 дней назад

Less wheat, less corn, MORE illegals. What could go wrong

@mbailey12341 13 дней назад

We don’t grow a lot of wheat but wheat was excellent in our area. I think western Kansas had a lot of 90-100 bushel wheat this year too.

@mbailey12341 13 дней назад

Let the chips fall. Maybe capitalism will open some doors for some young family’s instead of bailing out the big operators so they can just keep getting bigger 🤷‍♂️

@Levi-jv4fz 13 дней назад

What yield do you believe is being traded right now in corn?

@sandsock 13 дней назад

160-170 bushel corn and 45-50 bushel beans is my prediction for central ohio.

@loboalamo 13 дней назад

Hard to say here. Corn looks the worst. Looked really good coming up,,but all that rain and standing in ponds basically. Beans are just up and started gaining, they have a chance. There has been hail damage and flooding. There will be low yields and hope everyone has insurance. Praying for us all,,, around the globe. Best to get ready for some tough times.

@davezalinko1354 13 дней назад

Don’t grow beans in Western Canada … when is the last time you started them with a “10”? Not sure how farmers expect prices to rise when the bins are locked. Slow demand, hold back product, and have a big crop coming, equals pathetic prices. Farmers hurt farmers. If you hold product back you are hoping for a drought to have prices increase The 20% you hold back isn’t going to make your yr. Grow more for less. Never heard so many farmers say “they can F themselves I’m not selling, will build bins”. Now there’s a good investment when prices are plummeting and building bins are getting ridiculously expensive. Each to their own Genetics are pushing yields to new highs … problem is no one wants it.

@chadtosh6831 13 дней назад

You hit the nail on the head there. New crop is coming soon and I’ve got neighbors sitting on canola and barley like they are hens trying to hatch a group of chicks. The demand situation doesn’t justify it I feel. Especially when you look at our abilities to ship grain on the railways when a guy may want cash flow later on.

@scottsmith6631 13 дней назад

If The Joker was a farmer, he'd be saying "These markets need an enema!"

@pietdutoit3517 12 дней назад

Ever thought of manipulated markets? (I come from the silver world)

@johnferrari6554 12 дней назад

It obvious this channel has no idea just what a grain farmer IS going through. If not drought, it's flooding... WTF?... In Canada & US...

@anabolicamaranth7140 13 дней назад

If corn is $2 no problem. The government can just print more money to provide support payments to the farmers.

@OOpSjm 5 дней назад

Way to avoid stating the obvious reason USA exports are down.

@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff 5 дней назад

@@OOpSjm Brazilian soybeans are cheaper than US soybeans. That's why exports are down, at least for now.

@francisharlow8443 13 дней назад

THE PRICE OF FERTILIZERS ARE GOING TO DOUBLE IN NEXT 2 MONTHS, RUSSIA SELLING TEN TIMES MORE TO CHINA BC OF THEIR EXCELLENT GROWING AND BUMPER CROP SEASON

@dalepetersen1166 13 дней назад

Take a look at your chart and see where prices are for corn in Republican Presidential years versus Democrat. Hopefully farmer save some money to get through four more years of trump

@davehughesfarm7983 13 дней назад

I guess you missed the 4.75 beans in clinton years,,,,Plus when its red in power fuel is cheap, which makes fertilizer and trucking cheap.

@Zero01k 12 дней назад

>Dale didn't get a lot of Trump bucks in the trade war deal Dale is a bit salty

@rainey4035 13 дней назад

Can we talk about global population numbers? Where are the people? Does china really have a billion people? Lower population doesnt need more corn.

@JackHawkinswrites 13 дней назад

No, China does not really have a billion people … there is also a global recession…. The Russians lost control of the Black Sea and Ukrainian grain is back

@scottsmith6631 13 дней назад

8 billion people in the world. 55% of them live in the Yuxi Circle; within a 4000 Kilometer radius of Yuxi, China. We in the U.S. are in the minority.

@davidkottman3440 13 дней назад

Since the futures markets work largely with perceptions, we only need to convince those 8 billion people to think they need more corn!

@stevenconnolly7907 12 дней назад

The grains have the most affordable margins on the market. If you don't believe me check WTI Crude and the S&P 500 index. Grains have been 📉 trending down for some time. I think the farmers should be selling call options against their physical inventory. 🌽