Bonds and Bond ETFs Explained (FOR BEGINNERS)

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Bonds and Bond ETFs Explained // Bonds can be an integral part of any investment portfolio because of its income safety and return predictability. In this video, we will illustrate about what a bond is, what to look out for and how to buy bonds. We also check out what are important information inside a real SEC bond filing prospectus. A suggested approach to bond investing, the bond ladder approach, which offers flexibility and diversification is also explained. Though bond investing can be expensive because of the commission, so bond ETFs and index funds should be a part of anyone's consideration.
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - What is a Bond
1:00 - What is Fixed Income
1:21 - Why Bonds are Safer
1:38 - Why are Bonds Issued
2:01 - A Sample Bond Prospectus
2:28 - Bond Issuer
2:40 - Bond Issue size
2:52 - Bond Maturity
3:05 - Bond Coupon
3:25 - Bond Face Value
3:38 - 3 Benefits of Bond Investing
3:53 - Bond Return Predictability
4:05 - Bonds are Less Volatile
4:30 - The Drawbacks
4:46 - Default Risk
5:04 - Interest Rate Risk
5:21 - Bond Illustration
6:28 - On Inflation Risk
7:08 - How to Make Money On Bonds
7:23 - The Bond Ladder Approach
9:04 - Credit Rating Agencies
11:11 - How To Buy Bonds
12:00 - Bonds vs Bond Funds
12:52 - Bond ETFS Government Bonds
13:56 - Bond ETFS Corporate & Government Bonds
Recommended Video:
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#updive #bondinvesting #investingforbeginners #fixedincome #bonds
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Опубликовано:

25 июл 2024

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Комментарии : 170

@UpDive8 3 года назад

What's your view on bonds now？⬇️

@jesusinablackman2675 2 года назад

I’m going into Bonds!

@slickwilly4613 2 года назад

Boring

@MegaHugro Год назад

Buying! First will be the max allowed on an I-Bond. Month 1 yields 12.44% apr and if held short 12 months yields 6.55% including the penalty. Option to hold long based on what's up in one year. Kind of a no-brainer to park some cash with zero risk.

@rheechashaipu1927 8 месяцев назад

Not worried about them at my age, but I am considering buying extended duration bonds or at least intermediate treasuries. I opted to tilt towards small cap, so a small allocation to bonds (no more than 10%) would help cushion against severe drawdowns. Also, I'm finally seeing interest rates really fluctuate for the first time in my life. Seeing this, the emphasis on holding a diverse set of bonds for the long term feels more real.

@SaadKhan-qd5ev 3 года назад

By far the best video online in regards to bonds. You're a legend & it's only a matter of time until you get the recognition you deserve. Subbed!

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Thanks for the high remarks Saad! Really appreciate it and thank you as well for subbing.

@nicoqueijo 3 года назад

This was very insightful! Thanks for making this video!

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Thanks! Glad it was useful

@cjmccoy3076 2 года назад

Love your use of the 'seesaw' to describe the relationship between interest rate and bond prices. Will never forget now! Thank you!!

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Haha that was probably one of the most useful metaphors I learnt when my teacher taught me. 😄

@Jorge.1419 6 месяцев назад

excellent explanation. by far the best I've found. thank you

@cosmicbutthairs Год назад

Thanks for the tickers. Seriously considering making it part of the portfolio these days

@melisdainon 2 года назад

You are great at explaining this - I hope you continue producing videos. Excellent job!

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks!!!

@colbypriest141 Год назад

Super underrated. Still very easy to understand, but I feel like alot of other finance channels are afraid that if they share share too much info they risk not being easy enough for a 5 year old to understand. Thanks for all the explanation. Very helpful.

@bluegtturbo 9 месяцев назад

So about 2 percent when I can get up to 6 percent in a government guaranteed savings account?! How dumb would you be?!

@mr.snuggle6883 3 года назад

Underrated channel. Great content, editing & presentation.

@UpDive8 3 года назад

😄 thanks for the recognition! I did put a lot of time in it

@dustycheetofingers9623 Год назад

I was thinking the same I was shocked I saw he only had 3 thousand followers seems like you’re a big channel!

@Nicko8802 2 года назад

The most comprehensible video about bonds compared to others available on youtube

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks 😄

@jesusinablackman2675 2 года назад

Best teaching so far! And I guess the best there can be !

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks 😅

@TwitchRadio 9 месяцев назад

Thanks for the video as well as your time.. 👍

@kiraa_ Год назад

just what i needed, thx !

@jbuckinvestments843 Год назад

Very nice video bro! Awesome job

@isanalpillai 3 года назад

A like and a subscribe to your channel. Well deserved Jason. Very clean, simple and honest presentation. Loved it !! God bless

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Thanks Sanal! Appreciate the kind words. Hope it was helpful.

@isanalpillai 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 it was very helpful. Keep up the great work 👍

@UpDive8 3 года назад

😁😁😁 will do

@isanalpillai 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 i have messaged you on Facebook and Instagram. Let me know your views on it.

@mktwatcher Год назад

Very well done and helpful. Thank you sharing

@UpDive8 Год назад

Glad to know it helped :)

@brijinjacob6710 2 года назад

You are amazing!! Thank you so much for sharing the knowledge! Would you mind explaining all of us Duration and Convexity.. Looking forward to see your video. Once again thank you!!

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks again for watching and the nice comments 😁

@Johnno1979 2 года назад

Thanks. Very good explanation for beginners. 👍

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Hope it was helpful and happy new year!

@jamesrobertson9149 2 года назад

Very good explanation. Thanks.

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks :)

@jabetogar Год назад

Gracias por la información. Lo que interpretó es cuando las tasas son altas los bonos se ven muy pequeños, cuando las tasas son bajas los bonos en comparación se ven grandes. 😊

@m.t-thoughts8919 Год назад

I think it's important to think about the competition if they can take over the companies customers which means that it has a better pricing policy to determine if it will be able to pay out the bonds they issued or that the products they produce are actually needed and not just luxury/selling hope for an easier life as well /company bonds

@geovargas3097 2 года назад

Just found your channel. Good stuff 👍🏼

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks and welcome to the channel 🤟😄

@user-lx5wq3tk7c Год назад

Thank you so much for taking your time and making such an informative video. There is one thing I don't quite understand, what determines the price of a bond ETF? Please correct me if there's anything I've misunderstood: When you buy a bond for say 10k at 5 year maturity and 1% interest then you will get paid an interest/dividend at regular intervals throughout those 5 years and then get the 10k back if you keep the bond until maturity. You could also sell the bond before that and then the price might differ from the 10k depending on the market. In these cases the market price will depend partially on the movement of the interest rates of other bonds/the central bank etc. But what determines the price of a bond ETF? Is it supposed to reflect the current market price of the combined bond holdings in the ETF? Is it supposed to reflect the total purchase price of bonds within the ETF divided by ETF shares? Like how closely linked is the ETF price to the underlying bonds? And is the ETF price very susceptible to the differing interest in that specific bond ETF, so that the ETF price can become quite disconnected to the bond market pricing?

@kier3202 3 года назад

Thank you!

@UpDive8 3 года назад

You’re welcome :)

@nanyonjojackline1187 2 года назад

I liked your video it's great one that (good explanation) ❤️

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks for the nice comment :)

@aaronvdw 2 года назад

Finally clicked why bond prices go down as interest rates increase. Thanks!

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Glad it helped :) haha and it took me 3 years to get that concept really into me.

@mistletoe91 3 года назад

Great video

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Thanks again Jas

@fredswartley9778 7 месяцев назад

Great video. Thanks for the info. What do you think about TIPS and I bonds?

@UpDive8 7 месяцев назад

It’s usually priced pretty expensively if everything is thinking about inflation. That said, it is a good tool to invest if there’s an expectation that inflation will increase over time.

@sidharth.kavalu 11 месяцев назад

Amazing job breaking down a complex subject in such a simple manner. Loved the ruler analogy. Thank you for educating.

@UpDive8 10 месяцев назад

Glad it was helpful!

@louiscarrion7725 2 года назад

Loved the video! Very informative! I have a question. Like you said in the video, if interest rates go up, bond prices drop and yields rise and vice versa. With investing in bond ETFs (like the ones you showed in the video), what's the advantage of investing in them only to have a loss in your principal investment? (Depending on the bond ETF) is it possible to actually make any money in this scenario even with the rising yields?

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks for the nice comments! Usually no, in rising rates you can’t really make money in those traditional bonds. You’ll get interest payments still, but as you pointed out, you’ll lose on the principal. The special class of bonds that might be an exception would be distressed bonds, since interest rates aren’t the key risk driver of these kinds of bonds. But it’s highly risky nonetheless and not available to retail folks like the rest of us

@AR-xu2gg 2 года назад

Subbed. Love your videos! I’m trying to understand how the price of the bond ETF fluctuating impacts me. Am I correct in my understanding that the ups and downs of the price impacts my investment just like owning an equity etf? And therefore I need to be aware of the price before buying or selling. Also, does the bond ETF yield vary? This would be very different than buying a bond directly where the price and yield are known a priori, and don’t fluctuate if you hold to maturity. I watched the other video you recommended but didn’t see an answer. I’m really trying to analyze bond ETFs since that’s what I plan to invest in but it’s been confusing since they show a % return and yield. Which one do I care about?

@UpDive8 2 года назад

I think in terms of %return, you might be referring to the price return of the ETF? As in how much the price of the ETF moved over the year. If the ETF started at $10, and it moved to $11 over a year's time, then the % return is 10%. The yield is the "income" from the coupons from the underlying. You'll receive this income (minus fund costs) while you are holding onto the ETF. Return % is like house appreciation over time, yield is like rental income, so they are different things. What's more important is very much dependent on the investor.

@EquityEnigma Год назад

Really well explained, thanks! Keep up the good work. How would your strategy look like to navigate the current, rather insecure feeling, market conditions - if you had no exposure to bonds, would you wait with getting into bonds (e.g. short term gov bonds/treasury bills) until the FED stops the rate hike? Would love to hear your perspective now, since your video was uploaded when the interest rate universe looked a bit different…

@UpDive8 Год назад

Thanks for the nice comments! I think it’s always hard to time the market. Clearly Fed is aggressive, and probably they themselves don’t know when they are going to stop increasing rates. Unless you have to have to be in bonds, I don’t see it as attractive when inflation is pretty wild, and real rates still negative.

@mindfultradingsolutions 9 месяцев назад

Nice job! Keep up the good work. Have you ever seen a low risk bond that out performs the S&P over time? I'm interested in your thoughts on that.

@AkouriAmmar 2 дня назад

It's called a coupon because the bonds initially contact in the form of piece of paper with detachable coupons, you detach them when a payment date arrives and give them to the bank for money.

@bth2012 2 года назад

THX bond ladder

@thegages7672 2 года назад

Great video thank you very much! I understand the concept that high interest rates means lower bond rates but can’t seem to find an answer why bonds seem to be tanking over the past year or so when our interest rates have been very low. Any thoughts on this?? Thanks!

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Good question. Interest rates are indeed still low, BUT has been really rebounding from even lower levels. In fact that u-turn in interest rates has been very big and sudden, that's why existing bonds have been tanking. The bull bond market has been ongoing for 30-40 years, I really think its tough for anyone to forecast that bonds will continue to perform well from here.

@JL00JL 3 года назад

stocks any day... didn't know about the bond ladder approach

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Glad the video helped!

@detectiveofmoneypolitics 2 года назад

Many thanks cheers Frank G Melbourne Australia

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Welcome! Thanks for watching. Let me know if there’s anymore q’s.

@AziNuPot 9 месяцев назад

Really good to understand bonds etf..especially now when the yield approx. 5%..Got a question..so basically if you buy now VGLT and keep it 5 years..there is a high prob that then the price of the ETF will be higher..so you can win on the price appreciation + the monthly yield..is that correct?

@weideng5292 2 года назад

thanks a lot for your high quality work buddy, really appreciated! As an individual investor, if I want to time the market and understand real yield at current NPV, which one I should look at? 1. 12m Trailing Yield 2. Running yield 3. Average Yield To Maturity. I will assume #3 is preferrable.

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Don’t quite seem to connect that strategy though…? Haha maybe I’m not bright enough 😁

@benwilliams3539 Год назад

I don't understand with bond etfs, do you treat it exactly the same as regular stocks/etfs? Because you don't own the bond, the investment company does, so you don't get anything when certain bonds mature. Is the only payout you get the listed dividend? The major bond etfs on the asx are way down over the past 3-4 years. Will that be simply because interest rates must have slowly gone up over that time? Doesnt quite fit though i thought they've been way down. Rates are only just rising here so idk how to understand why those bond etfs are down so much since that period.

@jorgetamassiadelima7836 Год назад

Adorei, big fan forma brazil 🇧🇷

@UpDive8 Год назад

Thanks Jorge!

@augustusg857 11 месяцев назад

A better way to explain the effect of interest rates on bonds is that the person buying your bond in th open market isnt a fool and will price your bond in such a way that he will end up getting the higher return through a capital gain and the bond's coupon rate. This is similar to NPV with irr and wacc as well as value creation and destruction in valuing businesses by using ROIC and WACC. 😊

@TheBeav30 Год назад

Coupon was a term for the little piece of paper that you would physically tear off the Bond back in the day and take it to the bank to get your interest payment

@gavares3 Год назад

Thank you thank you thank ypu😅

@joeking433 2 года назад

I was looking at VGLT's returns and some years it lost money. How does that happen?

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Probably because interest rates at the end of the year was higher than the beginning of the year?

@mistletoe91 3 года назад

Can you please explain why TLT/BND have inverse relationship with US10Y when its actually tracking the it ?

@UpDive8 3 года назад

The ETF indeed tracks the treasury bonds. Though it is has an inverse relationship with interest rates, meaning, if interest rates go down, bonds go up, hence this ETF goes up. If you zoom out of the ETF graph and view multi years, this ETF should be on an uptrend because interest rates have being on a downtrend for the past 30-40 years.

@coachtony5200 2 года назад

Good video...today 6 24 22 interest rates are rising so bond prices are dropping , if I invest in an ETF in theory I will jeopardize my principal? Also do I have to hold an ETF to maturity like a regular bond or can I sell it like an equity at anytime?

@UpDive8 2 года назад

All ETFs will fluctuate like stocks. So at any one time you could be above or below your principal. Your understanding is correct. You can sell your bonds ETFs at anytime like equity.

@7.2percentalcohol45 2 года назад

Great video... Am going to subscribe.. Can you tell me what you think about "SWAN" ETF..

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Don't know enough to comment well, it seems to run quite a complex strategy wrapped in an ETF.

@jakewolfe1774 2 года назад

A well explained video for beginners, one thing I can attest to is that with adequate support from a qualified personnel can go a long way in your journey of being an investor.

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Thanks Jake!

@finntomkins6825 2 года назад

That's right Jake, i am currently being assisted by Edwin Earl.

@ethangavin5348 2 года назад

i have seen Edwin Earl's name mentioned a few times, in the comment section of a similar video.

@javierm-wz5xz Год назад

Fantastic video! One doubt I have - Since Bond ETFs are composed of a high number of notes, how does the process work if you hold on to the ETF passed the maturity of an individual note, do they use the money that has been returned to buy new bonds of the same length? (How does that affect short term bond 6m-1yr? Wouldn’t that increase volatility?)

@UpDive8 Год назад

Great question. You might hate this answer but it actually depends. More important is the etf manager would try to replicate the underlying index that it is tracking. They could use the redeemed bonds to buy a replacement bond of similar maturity if they believe it tracks the index better. Or they could use the redeemed bonds to buy something entirely different, again if they believe it tracks the index better.

@javierm-wz5xz Год назад

@@UpDive8 thank you for the answer! My understanding is that in order to obtain an actually fix income one should buy the actual bond, as you get your money back once it matures, otherwise you are operating with a variable income product (regardless of the underlying index) as its price fluctuates and you don’t obtain any fixed dividend or get your money back at the end, isn’t that right?

@UpDive8 Год назад

@Javier M When you buy the fund, you won't directly experience those maturity payments (which normally you would need to think about reinvesting, selecting which bonds etc) - as that would be handled byt he fund manager. But yes, the fund price will fluctuate, tracking closely the aggregate value of the bonds that it holds. The fund will also receive coupon payments, which will then be redistributed to fund holders periodically. Disclaimer: this is NOT investment advice 😁

@Katolapse 3 года назад

Never invested in bonds but considering getting into an etf

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Remember to take note of the management fees. Fees have a big effect when most bond returns are relatively low. 😁

@Katolapse 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 appreciate you!

@peteratkinson1492 Год назад

They call it a coupon because bond contracts used to be physical documents with perforated coupons you could tear off and send back to the issuer to receive your interest. Then computers happened!

@pablogomez4959 2 года назад

If I buy a bond I receive interest periodically, but if I invest in a bond ETF how much and how often do I receive interest?

@UpDive8 2 года назад

It depends on the ETF, but since many pool individual bonds, a lot of them pay out monthly. But always first check out the fund fact sheet, they always say what’s the pay out frequency.

@khata002 Год назад

super video. could be explained in a better way.

@UpDive8 Год назад

Thanks for the feedback

@GorillaMoonGod 2 года назад

Interest rates up, bonds down...got it! :)

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Hope it was helpful! If any other q’s let me know.

@donniemoder1466 2 года назад

I would think there is a risk to VGLT if longterm interest rates go up, the value of the VGLT's bonds go down. If you want to sell your holdings in VGLT, then you will not get your original investment (your principal) back.

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Yes, bonds interest rates really have no place to go other than up. It’s just the matter of how long it takes for that to happen

@thomasbrinkman2647 3 года назад

How do bond ETF prices move?

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Hi Thomas, There's more or less 3 main components here: 1) There ETF price will be affected by the everyday buying/selling of investors (include arbitrageurs) of the ETF 2) The ETF holdings (its value) and price usually moves closely together, as the manager can issue/redeem ETF shares to keep the price of the ETF closely aligned with its bond holdings. However in extreme cases, because bonds are relatively illiquid compared to stocks, bond values can deviate significantly to the ETF shares (this happened in Mar 2020), but most of the times its within acceptable range. 3) Interest rates don't affect the ETF price directly, though hugely important because it affects the bond holdings, which affect the ETF price.

@thomasbrinkman2647 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 thanks for responding! So let's say inflation does occur and bonds aren't a good hedge against inflation. Would this ETF drop because bonds themselves aren't being bought?

@UpDive8 3 года назад

@@thomasbrinkman2647 Yes, you are largely right, though there's a bit more detail around that. Inflation rises --> Interest rate rises, then existing bonds will drop --> ETF price will drop. However, interest rate rises also make "new" bonds more attractive, so there will be demand for new bonds. BUT, since the ETF will hold mostly "old" bonds, those would be dropping in value, hence ETF will drop in value. So it would be correct to say there will be much less demand for bonds when inflation/interest rate are rising.

@supertuga98 2 года назад

Very informative! Thank you for providing great quality content! I do have a question. Do accumulating Bond ETFs pay out interest to the ETF holders or are they reinvested in purchasing more bonds? If so, then how is it profitable to own Bond ETFs (Acc)?

@UpDive8 2 года назад

I’m not aware of bond ETFs that are designed to automatic reinvest coupons? Should be designed to pay out income.

@ramirocosta1 Год назад

olá! amigo tuga? sempre investiste em bond etf? ando a explorar essa possibilidade.

@supertuga98 Год назад

@@ramirocosta1 ola! Sim, a Vanguard tem um ETF do mercado de obrigações americano. Aconselho sempre a ler sobre o assunto. Um bom livro para começar é o "The little book of common sense investing" do John C. Bogle.

@EadricRicmund 2 года назад

Just FYI Bond etfs do lose principal since they don’t technically ever mature. So when you are investing in bond etfs you are really just there for the fixed income or speculating inflation and interest risks.

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Good point 👍

2 года назад

so you don't ever get your principal back with bond etfs? It's something I still couldn't find a clear explanation for.

@EadricRicmund 2 года назад

@ nope you don’t, not unless bond prices increase or stay the same (falling or stagnant rates). ETFs need to track wtv index they follow as perfectly as they can, so no bonds they hold will ever be held till maturity. As a result principal isn’t safe in bond ETFs.

@mktwatcher Год назад

Do you think The Fed has reached the point that they will lose control of Bond Prices via their FOMC market purchases and sales? In other words will Long Term Bond Rates Begin to Move Up regardless of The Fed FOMC Buying/Trying to Force Rates Down?

@BlockchainFiananceandvalue Год назад

bonds are shit when inflation is high but with the federal reserve raising interest rates and the banks failing it may be a good time to buy because what comes up must come down and if inflation starts to come down bonds should do ok....... it's the fed meeting next week

@UpDive8 Год назад

Can’t argue with that

@BlockchainFiananceandvalue Год назад

@@UpDive8 by the way your videos are brilliant and you should have way more subscribers

@constantinek9223 3 года назад

right now at these valuations 100% bond ETFs . Zero equities. Last year after crash moved money to equities and here we go again.

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Yeah, the equity prices now are SUPER scary

@Marque734 2 года назад

@RobFrank22 3 года назад

Market Acess

@UpDive8 3 года назад

You mean for bonds? Or bond ETFs?

@RobFrank22 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 direct bonds. MKTX

@MasonsMotions Год назад

Fightin inflation with vanguard long term etf right now 😅

@UpDive8 Год назад

Bonds have it realllllllll tough against inflation

@judgewooden Год назад

Why did investors buy so many Bond ETFs in february 2020 (When the pandemic started and there was fear of a recession)?

@UpDive8 Год назад

Back then was probably a fear driven risk-off play. Nobody would doubt the credit quality of the US gov. Haven’t checked whether bad-quality credit bond ETFs also bought in mass as well.

@judgewooden Год назад

@@UpDive8 The CARES act SMCCF provision paid Blackrock to buy ETFs (way above market price) so that the underlying bonds could be purchased by PMCCF. Nobody was selling ETFs, and I don't understand why.

@thomthlee Год назад

When a company goes under, bond holders can only cry as they wont get their money back. An example is the HYFLUX 6% bond. All holders also became bankrupt if they put all their money in Hyflux.

@chasestacksofficial Год назад

Expensive

@patrickturgeon7907 Год назад

VGLT : « a safe choice » !!! LOST 25% since 1 year !!!! 🤬

@osn19 11 месяцев назад

Obviously hard to stomach when you think about a "safe" investment

@romeo20maypole68 2 года назад

man.. freedom of speech eroded in HK..... nice guy.. hope he is safe and can speak keep producing content...CCP gonna take him out

@UpDive8 2 года назад

Hahah thanks? You’ll still be seeing me… not going anywhere soon 🤣

@mulle171 3 года назад

who is the woman at 6:12 ?

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Not too sure… 😅

@aaba1473 7 месяцев назад

You're misleading people. People investing into "investment grade bonds" cannot beat the inflation. People investing into "high yield bonds" can easily beat the inflation while collecting 8-10% interest every year. The key is to invest into bond ETFs that pay those fat dividends.

@leggoego 10 месяцев назад

Just buy TLT

@legion7318 3 года назад

Stocks More growth potential

@UpDive8 3 года назад

That’s definitely true as bonds are so expensive now. Though also depends on the investor, retirees may also want just income, not looking for growth but more on safety of capital.

@legion7318 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 how would bonds supply better income

@UpDive8 3 года назад

@@legion7318 Many retirees want safety of principal first, so bonds provide better protection in that with more predicatable coupons providing that income. Stock dividend income are nice too, but company management are still free to not-pay any if they don't want to.

@legion7318 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 I don't understand. How could a bond etf provide more principle than voo

@constantinek9223 3 года назад

BUY LOW SELL HIGH TLT TMF ZROZ TYD

@UpDive8 3 года назад

I actually haven't been paying attention to TYD. Its NOW on my WATCH LIST 😁

@constantinek9223 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 How high you think we peak on yields? 1.9-2/04 is my guess based on previous peaks and trend. Will begin averaging down on TMF from here.

@UpDive8 3 года назад

To be honest, I really have no clue or predictions on the yield levels. I just expect the longer the Fed holds from increasing interest rates, the faster and higher they will need to do it later (I think they are underestimating expected inflation)

@constantinek9223 3 года назад

@@UpDive8 The CPLIE is already out of wack. Commodities and Real Estate not included. Inflation is already here and coming further. The Fed will need a market crash just to make sure all that cash does not hit M2 money supply and make real inflation.

@UpDive8 3 года назад

Yeah it is very “under-counted”, if that’s a word. Real commodities and industrial materials are already on the move... look at lumber prices. Insane.