Bracketology: We use the KenPom prediction formula to fill out an entire bracket! 

Hi JRIvy! Lol. Thanks! I appreciate your support. Good luck with your brackets!

Hey Veni! I plan on testing the formula on the previous three seasons. Would be eager to see how to optimize it. Cheers!

Hi Ethan! Those are definitely conflicting stats. That's when I resort to the KenPom prediction formula to see how they fare against their first round opponents. Both Alabama and Kentucky are heavy favorites. Cheers!

I read a stat that says teams with a top 10 kenpom offensive efficiency and a 100+ kenpom defensive efficiency have rarely advanced to the sweet 16. Both Kentucky and Alabama are the only two teams that meet that criteria in this year's tournament, so it's probably best to have them making it to round 2 at best.

​@parthsharma9606 Interesting Stat. They are so easy to pick, Because you know their offensive potential so great. It's easy to fall in love with the offense. I don't trust alabama, but everyone is trying to sell kentucky. But you never know if a team gets hot What could happen..

@@parthsharma9606Kentucky will change that stat this year

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Hi Shub! In short, Yes! I'm going to post my last pre-tourney video on this very topic later today (3/20/2024). The "new" model includes a randomization step that will pick upsets. Cheers!

Hi John! Yes, the adjusted tempo (AdjT) is included in the prediction formula. In fact, it is essential to determine how many possessions each team will have during a game. It then uses AdjO to predict the number of points each team will score. I'll try to discuss this in my next video. Cheers!

Hi Charles! That is an interesting question. It definitely sounds like a game theory question. I don't know how well that works. Would definitely like to see the answer to your question. Cheers!

Yeah there are definitely scenarios where this makes sense to pick the team that is not favored, because at the end of the day, in order to win, you need to get points where your opponents are not. For example putting Kansas losing round 1 is great pick in my mind with only a 73% chance to win. Far more than 73% of people are going to have them advancing. When you can find value like that where the actual percent chance to win is lower than the public's consensus, its makes for a great upset call

Hi Mox! Good question. To answer the opposite question, I would consider *not* going with KenPom when the win percentages for both teams are close, like 53% to 47%. When the win percentages are farther apart, like 82% to 18%, I would stick with KenPom. That's what I plan to do. This should also play out when I add randomization to the picks. Cheers!

For sure unless your doing it against people from like Texas

Hi Charles! You are very welcome. I hope that works out considering Hunter Dickinson was injured in the last regular season game. Cheers!

Yes, but of all the teams that fell below the

Hi Kelly! I like each of those picks! My only concern is that Kentucky's defense is not too good. But they certainly have a chance. Cheers!

@@KerrySportsAnalyst have a $10 parlay in that final four to win a tab over $10k. Maybe I'll get lucky and FAU/Auburn will knock out UConn for me!

The main point is that a couple will, and if you pick them all, you'll have 50% of the final four. If you gamble, the chance you get the CORRECT UPSET is smaller.

Seeing a whole much of upsets is the usual now did we forget what happened last year? Lol

@@antr9162yea we did, what we’re saying is it’s so hard to pick these upsets. So statistically you’re better off taking a few ones or twos to have a better chance of getting a final 4 if let’s say 2 top 2 seeds make it. Trying to pick the 5 seed or 8 seed to make the final 4 is risky

Hi Coast! I agree with you. We definitely will see more upsets. However, in the final four and definitely in the championship game we see #1 seeds quite often. I'll be discussing this in my next video which will come out later today (3/20/2024). Cheers!

@@cleavesley Hi Cleave! Very good point! I totally agree with you. Cheers!

Hi User! Good question. Four of those teams are in the play in. So that leaves 18 teams with AdjEM < 10.0. Since we do not know which two teams to pick, I prefer picking them all to lose and taking two losses. That's still an amazing percentage to follow. Cheers!

If 2 teams do pull the upset, but you picked 2 other teams to do it, you lost 4 games. If you go chalk, you only lose 2. And be honest. We have no idea who will pull the upsets.

Hi Ryan! According to the video "Picking the Overall Champion" Purdue does not belong to the list of contenders. However, in a head-to-head matchup, Purdue is favored to beat Tennessee 57% to 43%. These are not necessarily conflicting since Purdue could beat Tennessee and then lose in the Final Four. However, since I am participating in the ESPN Challenge, I'm going to pick Purdue to be a champion in 1 or 2 brackets and Tennessee to be champion in 1 bracket. Trying to spread out my picks. Cheers!

Hi Jason! I totally agree. The KenPom predictions show us the favored teams in each matchup. However, it is a pretty strong prediction model. I posted a video on how to use randomization to pick upsets. Cheers!

Hey ZBatt! I'm going to apply this formula to the last three tournaments to figure this out. I know KenPom is very good during the regular season. I'll let you know what I find out soon. Cheers!

@@KerrySportsAnalystSweet! Thanks for crunching the numbers. Obviously with ESPN you want to hedge the public but not ignorantly. Otherwise you’ll lose a lot of points and potentially get last place.

FAU

The formula could also get thrown off If there is one of those random upsets, that shouldn't have happened. So last year, Purdue losing could have set off a chain of events that changed all of this in that region, for example. Very small percentage chance that this is gonna happen. But every now and then, i Guess it does.

Hi Chris! I literally laughed out loud when I read your comment about combing my hairpiece. It might sound odd, but I appreciate that kind of humor. But as David Letterman once said, "if this was a hairpiece, why would I pick this one?" Lol. Cheers!

This aged well

funny how refs just wouldnt believe in calling the game as it played ....instead by god we cant let samford beat kansas

@@chrisfecteau6334 i think i missed that play . Was dealing w a contrversial fantasy football trade.

must have missed most of 2nd half....oh well...refs dictate another one...