Bryce Miller's Imminent Breakout! And Other Thoughts on Release Point Differentials

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Bryce Miller is the early favorite for breakout pitcher of the year. It's thanks to him chronicling his attempt to add a new splitter. And in a recent interview with Seattle Sports, he mentioned a desire to adjust his sweeper as well.
Both tweaks make sense. Miller had one of the largest release differentials between his fastball and other pitches last season. Within this video, we'll chat about whether that even matters, how it relates to developing pitchers generally, and much more.
My substack can be found here: lancebroz.substack.com/
Big thanks to TruMedia for giving me access to their software to display the plots and release point charts within this video. Check them out here: www.trumedianetworks.com/base...
Bryce Miller's Interview with Seattle Sports can be found here: sports.mynorthwest.com/177248...
If you're looking for sortable short-form movement, you can find it at Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard: public.tableau.com/app/profil...
Music via lofi girl on youtube: / @lofigirl
@LofiGirl
Video and images via MLB, MLB.tv, Baseball Savant
0:00 The New Bryce Miller
0:54 Miller's Release Differential
1:54 New Splitter! Sweeper Tweak!
3:00 What's the Best Way to Develop Pitchers?
4:22 Does Release Differential Even Matter?
7:09 Expectations for Miller in 2024

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Опубликовано:

8 июн 2024

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Комментарии : 27

@LockedOnMLBProspects 3 месяца назад

Wake up babe, new Lance pitch breakdown just dropped

@golfmaniac007 3 месяца назад

Miller gonna be great pitcher. Hated any talks of trading him for a bat.

@salexweldon 3 месяца назад

Thanks for all the off-season content, Lance! Happy spring training!!

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Same to you! Going to be a great season!

@christophersuto3263 3 месяца назад

incredible content. thanks for making the offseason more enjoyable.

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Thanks for watching. 👍

@mattl7695 3 месяца назад

More consistent videos are great, love your content

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Thanks! Going to try and keep it up this year. 👊

@evilotto9200 3 месяца назад

disception as a quantifiable measure. because hitting's not impossible already.

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Not surprising that the league is trying their best to help offenses haha

@TellenJones 2 месяца назад

Good video.👍

@nickfabrizio3288 3 месяца назад

I’m a huge prospect fan Bryce Miller has some of the nastiest pitches and I think change the arm angle makes a lot of sense and the same with adding a splitter. As a splitter is one of the hardest pitches to see out of the hand of a pitcher and it’s hard to tell what pitch is coming. Since Bryce has so many pitches it will make it very difficult for hitters to know what pitch is coming whereas for Kevin Gausman you know it’s either Fastball or Splitter and sometimes slider or sweeper

@angelo8424 3 месяца назад

Ok, you convinced me with documented proof of Bryce's work to get better. I just looked at him on my wire yesterday, but passed. I just grabbed him- Thanks for doing the research that I was too lazy to do myself.

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Mission accomplished ✅

@MrRentedAmmo 3 месяца назад

ADP of 179 on fantasy pros

@uncle-ted 3 месяца назад

perfect your changeup! the best pitch in baseball!

@zephyrmania 3 месяца назад

Mariners could definitely be the best staff in baseball next year, really excited to see miller pitch more as he’s one of my favorite young guys in the game

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Yeah, they’re loaded. I like Woo a lot as well

@danielkim2078 3 месяца назад

How do you get access to the Trumedia charts? Is there any way we could also get access?

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Unfortunately not, they don’t have a public offering right now. Only through media organizations or teams. 😔

@Lil-Bober-051 3 месяца назад

What free commercial sites would/do you use for release point stats, other than statcast and fangraphs

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Yeah, I use the Baseball Savant search query a lot But I also love Alex Chamberlain’s pitch leaderboard, which you can find here - public.tableau.com/app/profile/chamb117/viz/PitchLeaderboardv6/Dashboard The “specs” tab has release, shape, etc

@ethanniedorowski116 3 месяца назад

Roansy Contreras Luis Ortiz? Any thoughts Quinn ? Roansy is the one im really interested in what you think.. i really thought he had a chance to be a soild number 2 if he could just tweak the fastball a bit 🤔 Oritz seems to be more finding the zone. But just huge pirates fan an really enjoy your look into potential an pitching.

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Kinda out on both. Roansy’s fastball isn’t great and 4S are hard to tweak independent of velo. Ortiz I’ve never really been in on. I like Jared Jones in that org though, he’s fun.

@Dirkkkkk 3 месяца назад

Great article. Extension is the difference maker in perception. I think stuff plus is overly discussed by nerds assuming pitchers have control over it. It mostly just explains the mystery of “rise and ride and run” on a fastball. I predict it will be the new sell out variable that gets organizations into trouble, like a nfl combine performance. Its hilarious. They’re acting 97-98 is a problem on some fastballs if doesn’t move the way they want their analytics to. Absolutely nonsense. Velocity speeds the hitter up, makes the secondaries work. The problem is velocity sans control - that gets hit, hard. All you have to do is watch a modern mlb game and wait 5min to shake your head at godawful pitch calling.

@LanceBroz 3 месяца назад

Thanks for watching. Disagree with some of your points here, but I get where you’re coming from. Velocity is the largest contributing variable to any (good) Stuff+ model. So I agree with you on that point. Velo is king. But when you dive past purely velo, things like shape and whether that shape is at all distinct from the release it’s coming from also matter. It’s not common for a pitch that’s 98 mph+ to be a below average Stuff+ pitch, for example. But the majority of pitchers, especially starters, don’t throw 97+. Average fastball velo is 93-94. So when you look at a bunch of 93-94 mph fastballs, which about 100+ pitchers averaged last year, how do you determine which within that bucket are good? Extension matters, sure. But does it matter more than shape and release? Most models don’t believe so. That’s where Stuff+ can be valuable!