in the fcf table, the 40% growth rate is slower than what we know today. nvidia has 60b for 2024, +120b 2025, approx 200b 2026, so this initial growth is much higher than 40% today for this year. so in 2026 we will have 2028 as per your table revenue +200b. maybe this helps compunding later on. todays growth is higher than 40% but 10 years later i don't know about 40% correct, depends on how many industries will use it then again out of 800b market share for AI, if nvidia has 75% thats 600b and with a 50% margin, that will be 300b profits, which compared to todays apple 170b / year should equal to about 2x appl market cap today. key question how much market is there for AI. will countries buy in and each build their own DCs ? will military buy in ? healthcare, it, etc ? if this is the start of next industrial revolution, all industries will start to use AI to improve productivity
What kind of "research" have you done leading you to believe that expectations are reasonable? There is a very simple thought experiment that can be performed - in a world where Nvidia's future cash-flows discounted to today sum up to more than $2.78T, what else is true? How much energy will be used to train and inference LLMs / generative AI? How much liquid cooling and other surrounding infrastructure needs to be built in order to achieve this? And how much money (balance sheet + free cash flow) do the hyperscalers / enterprises / automotive and budgets do sovereign have to enable this? But most importantly, how much revenue & profit needs to come through the other side to justify this? Sorry to say, but ChatGPT is correct in this case... Nvda puts for Dec 2026 are the play here
You're too stuck in the old paradigm. Same argument was made against any technological disruption in history. You're thinking from the perspective of the old paradigm where a significant portion of the GDP goes to human labor. Think from the perspective where a larger and larger portion of GDP goes to AI. This is the only rational conclusion given the current progress of AI. Look up AI scaling laws.
