Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance
Very true! I've been able to scale from $50K to $189k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns
@@sherry_smith_penson My consultant is ‘’Catherine Morrison Evans’’ I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision. I basically follow her trade pattern and haven't regretted doing so.
I'm new to stock market /Crypto and would like to invest but I've go no idea on how to make good profits. Pls what's the best approach you'd recommend?
Kyle is so wrong on Ukraine, its a joke. Its not like the evidence is not available. Everything he said was the Wests false narrative, pack of lies. He is so wrong on Ukraine, how can anything he said on China be taken as truth ?
@Account Fake False dichotomy. Aquinas - don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Sure, I recognise the blind patriotism. But that shouldn't lead to a conclusion that every utterance is thus wrong.
So, repeating mainstream western government lies like the mainstream media is a good interview ? ok. Remain in the dark. I guess you believe the Iraq war was about weapons of mass destruction and not a change from using the dollar to Euros for oil ? Vietnam war was not a false flag of something which never happened in the Gulf of Tolkien ? The Jab is safe and effective ? Tens of thousands dead due to liars. But still beleive what you hear ? There are no words.
Cause he is a clown that has already drawn his conclusion and works backward. His track record on China predictions are abominable. Anyone actually paying attention knows he is a joke
Everyone agrees China is one of the most important factors of the global economy, but I haven't seen too many finance commentators who understand the Chinese politics, their logics and priorities. Glad you've got finance experts who actually understand. There are lots of uncertainties due to a lack of credible information from China. Many pluck those statistics as they are in their models, simply because they haven't made enough effort to know how to interprete them properly. Kyle and Nick definitely have come closer to the right track of the Chinese way of thinking, though I think some of the conjectures are a bit too speculative. One thing I disagree with conspiracies is people often overestimate the intelligence and controls government have. There are lots of noise in the Western world, and there are lots of roadblocks in authoritarian regimes. It's tempting to assume the leaders of the countries know what's happening, have the correct perspective, and intelligence to keep things under control or even orchastrate complex schemes. But if you look close enough, they're far from being that smart and capable.
Yes. They're some of the few who're thinking on the right track. One of the biggest challenges in finance is people are imposing their personal political biases on the world. And the ability to read foreign political economics is a good demostration of objective analytical skill.
A shame that we never have Chinese to talk about China on these channels, or Russian to talk about Russia. People just assume they know, even though they don't have the cultural context, not being able to keep abreast of the changing social dynamics, not having the appropriate source of information. Many financial analysts boast their scientific methodologies, but most of them are less than half rigourous with their assumptions on foreign issues.
@@fickle1207 Agree. And frankly speaking, People tends to be less rigorous when dealing with different perspectives. And this is relevant because the facts are often driven by people with different perspectives, and information transmitted by people with different perspectives. So we see lots of smart experts with deep personal biases, which doesn't help us making the right decisions.
@@fickle1207 True. Imagine talking about the US impact on Europe without being on Twitter, RU-vid and knowing English. It's hard to talk about the impact of China on the US without being on the key Chinese social media, knowing Chinese, and on the Chinese search engine (they don't use google).
I have no love for the CCP, and generally agree with Kyle Bass's criticisms of that regime...but I need to call him out on this one. First of all, we don't know if the reported death stats in Asia are accurate. I am in Vietnam now, was in Thailand throughout 2021, and have spoken with many people who were sick and had loved ones who died. I suspect that the autocratic regimes in this region tend to under-report COVID deaths. Secondly, one of the greatest risk factors for COVID complications and deaths is obesity. There is certainly much less obesity in this area of the world than there is in North America and Europe. Finally, I actually am a geneticist (PhD), and I have no idea how to design a virus that would reliably kill people from one genetic background and not others. It would be a huge risk for a regime that values stability, more likely to backfire than not.
Who doesn't love the bioweapon narrative? And I'm no fan as well, but under reporting just seems way more likely. Regardless, enjoyed the rest of the discussion and probably will relisten. It's definitely essential for global macro analysis
@@fibonaccitimes The biocontainment level is determined by the means by which a virus spreads, not the complexity of the virus genome. The viruses I have engineered are HIV-based (blood-borne, not air-borne) so only required safety level 2. Womp womp.
I used to be Chinese, now Hongkonger living in Canada. So I have earned my spot to speak. I follow your channel. Mr. Bass's opinion is different from the rest of the macro analysts. He is more insightful of the Chinese issues than Munger and Dalio combined. And those two have BILLIONS invested in China. Pls bring more people like him on your show. Thank you.
If 40% of China’s economy is real estate and it won’t come back in a reopening, won’t that create a continuing recession in the demand for materials? Could zero COVID be a red herring to buy time for them to figure out what to do about the collapse of real demand?
You do realize that China is, as we speak, rapidly exiting Covid Zero? So, everything he said here has already been proven to be completely wrong, once again. Also, most legit China economists put the real estate sector at `25%. Kyle Bass exaggerates and cherry picks because he is working backward from the conclusion that China is evil and needs to be destroyed.
I agree with both statements. I think China's saving Grace could be cheap energy, if oil prices will continue to stay down they may be able to continue with cheap manufacturing and dig their way out. If they don't a lot of Western investors will be on the hook for a lot of money.
Probably, but some countries will be impacted much more than others, and in some cases (here’s looking at you, Canada) the effect will likely be entirely ameliorated by the industrial buildout happening in the USA and Mexico. Australia will probably fare the worst, as decades of huge demand from China for its commodities exports has crowded out everything (well, not literally everything but an awful lot especially in manufacturing) but mining.
A lot of their printed money ends up being funneled into their real estate sector. China prints more money than every other country combined. Their real estate industry is a giant ponzi scheme that they will probably keep pumping up just to keep their GDP numbers up. Some estimate that China has 600 million residential BUILDINGS (not apartments). So a huge portion of these apartments aren't used for living but for corrupt officials to park their money in.
To continue I have listened to Kyle Bass for a decade or two and he's always has the most interesting facts and as time goes on they prove out to be the truth. There are many other speakers with data that back up with Kyle and this other gentleman were saying. Don't discount it that's what they want you to think. Great great interview
@@mth469 I mostly heard him talk about the collapse in China not Japan. Speaking of Japan if they don't allow immigration they're just going to die it's all old people there. Young people in Japan are not having children or getting married near as often.
@@mth469 last year in Japan there was almost 600,000 more deaths than births. I had to look it up. China will be there pretty soon too I believe. Since they are allowing to have a second and a third child the birth rate is still declining in China. Nice of them to allow people to have children isn't it.
@@danniezgocki1421 You are right. An entire army of people are dying in Japan every year. Not sure about China. They are fewer births but then they have a substantial population to begin with. A loss of 100 million would be bareable if not for the fact their economy like every economy is leveraged. Has any country that started this decline in birth rate ever reversed that trend?
🤣🤣 Kyle is so wrong on Ukraine, its a joke. Its not like the evidence is not available. Everything he said was the Wests false narrative, pack of lies. He is so wrong on Ukraine, how can anything he said on China be taken as truth ? 🤣🤣
This is a great conversation. I will add one bit about the Tiananmen Square massacre death. In addition to ten of thousands students killed in the square itself, there were thousands more that were killed in their homes, which runs along the perimeter of the Tiananmen Square. Many of these people were killed on balcony, in the living room, kitchen and bedroom with strayed bullets. And these were not small bullets, they were calibers shooting from tanks, which penetrated walls within the condo. This is a fact that almost no one ever talk about. Look up Louisa Lim, former NPR Beijing reporter.
Interesting... I read a comment, where a man described the story shared to him by his father. His father was there on business and stayed at a hotel close or next to the square. Said, before it all happened, the hotel relocated all the guests temporarily. When he returned, the square was clean and there was entirely new staff at the hotel. Nobody knew anything...
Company’s that don’t move their supply chain out of China as fast as possible are foolish and will suffer. North American companies would be better of moving supply chains back to America or at least to central and South America. There is cheap labor and regional trade structures.
Mr Bass is amog very rare few people who truly understand China. I believe he has got the big picture right despite some minor inaccuracies with details.
I enjoyed this conversation SO much. I happen to agree w much of the “conspiracy” that KB hypothesized, but just having the edgy conversation, which previously was commonplace, is now bookended with warnings and all sorts of bs. Thanks for the guest/ conversation.
Exactly. What's wrong with a conspiracy? I have to wonder exactly how many more have to be revealed to these people before they'll finally accept that they happen!!
@@exquisitine-hashgraphschwi1932 asside from his msm copied opinions on russia... probably even thinks russia blew up their own pipeline. apparently they missed a part of the pipeline as i recall from a while ago... seems pretty hard to fail to blow up something of their own, ddi they forget where that part of the pipe was?
@@tastypymp1287 word "Conspiracy" used to mean (before we entered Age of Post-Truth) "to think together". The Global Elite Fascists (the GEF) have 'altered' everything that used to be normal.
Kyle, is right, but what he has not noticed so far is the Chinese and Saudi Arabia agreement for Chinese to buy Saudi Oil in Yuan and the Saudi will keep the oil sale proceeds in Chinese bonds. The Japanese have noticed this and that is they will move by buying Saudi Oil in Yen >jpy< and will improve their yield on Japanese bonds so Saudi keep their proceeds in Japanese yen bonds and to both Asian countries will sell their products and investments in Saudi Arabia. I explained this on twitter just before BOJ tweaked their bond and pushed their currency competitive.
NOBODY WANTS RMB! There is only so much room for Chinese toaster ovens in exchange for oil in those countries. But Chana NEEDS dollars so it can’t get around that without devaluing the RMB and all USD assets. That would be a really dumb move!
has kyle ever considered the clinicial obsesity rate in Texas versus South East Asia as cause for difference in death rates , not genetic traits of races..?
Unlike Europeans and Africans, East Asians often develop more serious metabolic disease without obesity presenting first. For instance, China has a significantly higher rate of type II diabetes than the USA does, even though the obesity rate is lower.
@@anthonyyoung6489 it used to be much less i used to track it before COVID. For US it was half a million USD n sg used to be 1 million. Now they've hiked it. But isn't sgd pegged to USD? What if there's a currency collapse due to debt n losing gsr status? What about aus?
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this informative content with the fine balance between aposing views debating is heathy and be embraced as great content WOW you have just nailed it ! ! cheers. Frank
I'm not going to throw the baby out with the bath water - there is some good info and interesting ideas in this interview, but there are also some absolutely wild conclusions drawn. More specifically, you can't say that the data out of China is unreliable to prove one point and then use that same data source to support other theories depending on which aligns with your narrative.
@@ilirsvenfrancous9011 well the WHO is an absolute disgrace as well. and he talked as if not common knowledge the asian countries have massively lower death counts. people have been talking about that forever, discussing how use of ivermec quite possibly helped japan and india plummet their big spikes. its like even lower in africa as i understand, so the gene thing is a bit illfitting for that part
@@ilirsvenfrancous9011 Yeah but there are so many other factors you have to consider: more favorable demographics in SE Asia, undercounting, comorbidity in the West etc. He is either being specious or he is an idiot; leave it to you to choose. Also, Hong Kong had the highest death rates anywhere in the world earlier this year - how do we square that with the 'genome targeting'?
It is strange how supporters of capitalism point to the success of capitalism in chosen countries and invariably those countries have had empires, but there are many countries in the world that have a capitalist system that are very poor. On the other hand Cuba a socialist country that has no great intrinsic wealth and has been sanctioned for 70 years gives free education and healthcare to its citizens. That has nothing to do with this debate of course
I'm so happy to hear something up to date from Kyle Bass. Recent developments here in Thailand have verified my own fears outlined in this episode. A Chinese national connected to the Triad gangs was arrested here for buying over 40 properties. Foreigners are not allowed to own land. A bribery scandal is emerging. My fear is thousands of Chinese with bags of money and bad ideas flooding into and influencing the direction of Thailand.
Fascinating exchange. Loved the West Taiwan T-shirt!!! We are definitely headed for interesting times over the next few years. Completely agree that we have a major energy crisis by moving away from fossil fuels too quickly. The EU in particular shot themselves in the foot and a lot of people will suffer due to their inept leadership which, by the way, were elected by the people. So wake up over there and get your continent in order.
Do you know that Taiwanese people hate the West Taiwan crap? Taiwan is Taiwan, China is China. The only people that cheer this nonsense are narcissistic white people who don't care one smidge about democratic Taiwan and just want to crap on China
Great conversation, love to hear more. Hate that you were being rushed. Would like another interview where you're able to take your time and expand more on the various topics. Thanks so much Kyle and nick. Bye happy holidays.
I am confused. Kyle's comment about China in the end not backing down from Zero Covid Policy "is not gonna happen" (18:05) leads to the talk about C19 targeting specific genomes more than others. So if it would preferably target western cultures then what's the problem with China backing off Zero Covid Policy? My original thought was that it is the other way around.
Good point! Also, Hong Kong experienced some of the highest death rates anywhere in the world earlier this year. Finally, China is rapidly exiting Zero Covid now, so he has been shown to be wrong yet again in the days since this was recorded. Kyle Bass doesn't know anything about China, just that he hates it. Jack is so spineless that he will never ever push back on anything the guests say, so these guys knew they could steamroll him here
Kyle (21:28)"The only thing you can infer from this data is one of two things - the number of deaths in Asia are dramatically understated by a factor of 9-10 or the disease is designed to affect different genomes in different ways. I am a believer of the latter."
Or, it could just affect different populations differently, no diabolical conspiracy required. I think his analysis here is garbage. He tells us to just look at the data, and the truth will set us free; nonsense.
I noticed that the real expertise of these Western experts only kick in when they started taking about China. I didn't get the feeling that they were particularly informed when they spoke about their own problems. But as George Galloway would say "don't look here look over there". China can do things three times as fast as the West meaning they are thinking three times as fast. So try to solve your own problems and stop gloating about perceived problems China might be having. In other words fellows the narrative of the whole world is changing whilst you guys are being left behind due to your low level vibrational thinking.
I agree with everything Kyle said till the end when he talked about the only way is a Ukraine victory. I would love to hear what he thinks that would look like. I think he should stick to talking about what he understands like China.
but why did he use the term extreme right, there is no extreme right in america. as well as copypasting the MSM narrative on ukraine... "we all know he will continue on to latvia, lithuania, poland if we dont stop him here" lol, we certainly dont
If you hate China you love him. If you are a rational human being you realize that he is completely full of shit and his arguments are complete utter nonsense
“The young couple can’t have sex, they can’t marry in the basement of their parents’ house”….When I heard this from Bass at the 14:20 mark, my jaw dropped open. Close to 100% of Chinese families don’t have basements as they live in apartments. Makes me wonder if Bass has ever really studied China in depth. I would heavily discount what he has to say about the subject.
being from texas myself i think it's a figure of speech. but i do agree he has a generally exaggerated point of view with regards to china. Though that point in question has some truth to it, but it's not much different in the USA or europe to be honest.
I live in China and I dont agree with the two guests. China 's economic growth has been exceptional and it is the second largest economy in the world. The Covid has impacted the economic growth like other countries. Also some of real estate policy and anti monopoly policy in internet industries have also impacted the economy. The fundamental growth engine has not been damaged. The rising consumer needs and the strong export economy are going to continue drive growth. Plus the continued infrastructure build out for digital economy, China will continue to grow its econmy at a higher rate than the US and other industrialized countries.
I knew I was in for a treat with the disclaimer in the beginning. Just wonder how one can be such a critical thinker on covid and China and yet be so blind and naive when it comes to the Russia narrative.
Is there data in the United States for US covid morbidity rates broken down by ethnicity? We have plenty of US citizens with Asian gemomes. Could give insight about differential Covid morbidity by race
Betting against China how? He did lose money betting against the Japanese Govt. Bonds since the 1990s, but I think you are wrong about his losing money on China. And he certainly has not been "losing his shirt!" No investor wins on every investment every time. That is why diversification exists.
5:00 the EU energy crisis is policy made. Spain doesn't have the issue. This is purely because Europe prices energy at the highest price energy source, which was to help renewable energy. Now that renewable energy is more expensive, it hurts it, and these idiots can't change their policy. Honestly, Europe is over as a first world economy. They went so far woke, a basic problem of a bad energy policy can't be fixed.
I read somewhere that the speechwriter who wrote the line about no limits to the relationship between China and Russia lost his job. That tells me that Xi regrets that statement and would delete it if he could.
This Bass guy has been "predicting" the collapse of China and Japan for at least 15 years. He also placed big bets on the collapse of Yen and Yuan - and lost his shirts. I would take anything he said with a bucket of salt.
are you new to economics? an investor makes thousands of bets over thre course of his career and loses close to 50% of them... kyle is obviously right about china as a whole, they keep running themselves into the ground and is obviously in a bubble. his problem is his copied MSM narrative about ukraine
@@wasdwasdedsf someone who is consistently wrong for 15 years - and gave the same wrong advise for 15 years. Yes, that's an apt characterization of an economist 🤣🤣🤣
I have no special insight as to whether any of the opinions expressed are correct or otherwise, however, I'm delighted that the content on this channel allows for alternate points of view. If we're to move forward as a society we need to stop silencing opinions that are in opposition to our own.
China has never published any “real” numbers regarding the population or economy because they continue these national security issues. Recent analysis and commentary from China have led us to believe that they over counted the population by, as much as, 100 million. Some of this “over count” may be related to COVID and/or the Bird Flu and MERs impacts on the population over the last couple of decades. Broad exposure to these viruses may also account for the lower mortality expressed related to COVID.
