TIMESTAMPS: 00:01:50 How to Play China 00:11:49 The Hong Kong Banking System 00:14:36 2018 vs 1998 00:18:04 The Hong Kong Monetary Authority 00:23:19 Capital Flight from China 00:30:25 Endgame Scenarios 👉 Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision -- get started here: rvtv.io/membership
DaveBraga lol and without blinking I might add, the motivation behind his words as a pro American anti ccp doubles up with his incentive to help hedge funds against all the forex fluctuations that will happen throughout the trade wars and now transfer of wealth outside to the western world. Perhaps Singapore and other financial powerhouses may get a huge chunk of the rewards from the undeniably disgusting tactics by Kyle
I was thinking of using a Chinese company for a manufacturer. Head Office was in Hong Kong - Manufacturing was just 50 KM away in Mainland China. I had to pay them in USD. I could not pay them in CNY or HKD. So mainland China has purposefully made Hong Kong into a service economy - being the business front and money funneler of USD into the Chinese economy. Hong Kong companies are not allowed to have manufacturing in China - and still do business in HKD or CNY. If they want to have manufacturing in China and an Office in Hong Kong - they have to do business in USD - otherwsie they cannot do business. When Hong Kong was British run they could be an import export company - not have businesses in China - but do business with China. Now it is Chinese run - the Hong Kong companies were forced to move part of their business to China - then start doing import export in USD. And this was a requirement from the Chinese government... To weaken the power of the Hong Kong businesses. And to move the economic power of HongKong to mainland China. Part of Mainland China's power is from forcing Hong Kong companies to invest in mainland China... moving Hong Kong's economic might into China... and forcing Hong Kong to be the Financial Port for Mainland China. You cannot do import Export business with a Chinese company - unless you do it through Hong Kong - and you can only do business in USD.
I feel like I’m going to search all of Kyle Bass’s interviews and watch each one of them, maybe even more than once
4 года назад
Kyle Bass's stocks have been growing at 1.5% per year according to Google. To put that into perspective, I make 10-30% quite easily. Would you like my advice?
@ Me too, but it is much easier with personal portfolio and lower amounts. I am on track of 100% this year. But what happened with HK curency 9 months later ant there isnt any significant drop?
Is Kyle just REALLY mad that his shorting of the Yuan didn't pan out, and is now going all in for another try? I find this channel really interesting, but also a bit one-note sometimes.
If the federal reserve reduce interest rates by 25-75 basis points this year, as implied by bond yields, then how does this affect this trade? I am guessing that it would also reduce the pressure on the HKD and hence postpone the reckoning that is discussed in the interview?
There is always an overshooting thus what is implied means absolutely nothing. Bond market is overly bearish but US macro is still decent. Like core inflationary pressures for instance, they will be positive at least for another year. Add rising oil core inflation and you have high geo risk enviroment, moderately high inflation at target with still running fundamentals at least in the yearly outlook. Thus FED lowering yields is overly bearish view taken by the "consensus" atmo. Literaly 7 months ago people were almost certain that FED will RISE yields, thus one can imagine the general view has shifted to the other side of the spectrum, but reality is somewhere in between. imho
China’s Debt is worse off than Hong Kong’s CHINA IS THE MOST LEVERAGED in real economic terms the actually GDP is lucky to be 2% for a variety of reasons-I’m getting actual input from Chinese Tax Authority senior official at great risk! He is looking at getting out-speaks volumes!
Ask yourself why Google is feeding you this, NOW? If the news is fake, Invision how this history lesson was fostered?fkn propaganda THIS CHANNEL SO FKN SKETCH.
Gotta say I hesitated to watch -- like what an HK story gonna teach me? But oh, boy am I glad I did. This video was really good -- I put it on my "must re-watch list". Thanks guys!
Hongkong is absolutely controled by the ccp, and became the happy pool of money laundry for the top officials of ccp like Jiang ze Min and Wang Qishan.
When China first took control of Hong Kong it unabashedly stated that it could and would take the money from individuals including expats and including financial institutions incl banks
Can anyone recommend a book. . .or video. . .that would explain the basics of what they're discussing here? I need something that simplifies the overall concepts so I can begin to get a handle on this. I do want to delve into this much more deeply than just the basics, but I need a simple explanation of the economic concepts involved to get me started. Any suggestions would be most appreciated!
Hmmm I would say, have you played monopoly? well the game ends when a player is the only one that owns everything right? so that's what the ccp is kind of doing (cheating using the bank since many private companies in china are half+ part of the state), while any capitalist would want the game to keep going and not go for all the cards on the board. or at least that's how I would explain it LOL
In short, China wants to Steal and is stealing the wealth from Hong Kong. Hong Kong used to be UK colony. It was a free trade port and economic engine. People got rich, China wanted to take the wealth. A 99 year lease was put in place. The lease came up, then after some turmoil, a new deal was cut giving a time frame till China could control fully Hong Kong. China is pushing the timeline up and arresting people inside Hong Kong and taking them back to China. Also China wants to take the wealth too. Just see that Jack Mia from Alibaba lost his fortune to 5 unnamed new share holders of his shares. In the end, the wealth creators are leaving and Hong Kong is having civil unrest and will collapse. China will take possession and it will degrade into chaos at first and then authoritarian control by China the end!
THL LI its a simple commonsense that people worship Guo for syphoning money out of the public, and then condemning the very system he got his riches from. How ironic that the people that is supporting democracy are after all silently preaching that the world is ruled by the one country that Guo is hiding in, and that is the world we are in sadly...
Frankly, Australia’s economy is like a ticking time bomb. Their government spends too much on welfare and humanitarian cause which is great if you’re a rich country but not having enough people, lack of manufacturing, heavy reliance on imports are basically a recipe for disaster. You can’t just rely on wagyu beef and mining to support the whole country. There is so much more that needs to be done. Solution: ease immigration laws and make it easy for the right people to call aistralia their new home. Non-muslims from malaysia, phillipines, and other south east asia will definitely be a great backbone for a growing country. 2. Ease taxation and provide incentives for SMEs 3. Stop allowing Muslims in for gods sake. Look at how they treat the non-muslims in malaysia, indonesia etc
I wonder how much credit went into Mainland China or went through Mainland China to the Projects like Silk Road 2.0 and other Infrastructure Projects outside of China? Anyone curious?
wow I diden't know and this, this is the first time I heard of the problem with Hong Kong, I have shorted Tesla but HSBC seems to be in worse shape by far!
Short the HK Dollar... (there's one) Short the HK Property Market (there's two) Short the HK Banks (HSBC?) - (There's 3) Short the HK Property Developers (There's 4) Short any corporation that does 50% or more of its business there (There's 5) and that was just a couple of seconds thinking about it...
Trump will Tweet that Hong Kong will now be treated as Chinese territory and subject to all the trade rules placed on Chinese trade. BOOM! Before this goes down I would love Trump to ask for all the man made or man enhanced military islands in China Sea to be demilitarized.
Charles Granata and for the USA to be subject to the same game and remove themselves from the islands they have claimed for themselves for military bases and countries they have attacked and stationed their troops there. Doesn’t make any difference for the tarriffs on Hk. Mind you, they are made in China
You have NO IDEA of the money that flows through HK and BVI's which are totally related. For every single HK company there is a counterpart BVI company as well - because HK is a money pump. It comes in and goes out ... no one knows how much money - because HK is the most deregulated banking system in the world !!! Hong Kong is NOT just about Chinese money - it is about Global money !!
I get the idea that some people think that USD in Hong Kong stops and circulates in Hong Kong. It doesn't... it sits in Hong Kong for about 2 days then moves into Mainland China. So to see the USD peg to HKD - is not correct. The Hong Kong USD peg is Mainland China buffering a CNY to USD peg. So it is more than just a Hong Kong currency / economic issue - it is a mainland China issue. So mainland China uses Hong Kong as a buffer and a funnel to get a hold of USD.
@@danesovic7585 Thanks for your response, I appreciate it because I really don't know much about currencies and their trade. Is there more to the opportunity here than just a chance for people who have invested in HK to get out? How does one bet against something from the outside if they don't already have a ton of HKDs.
In a forex trade, go Long USD and Short HKD, since the HKD is pegged to the dollar your downside is minimal and your upside is massive. That is the asymmetry that you can capitalize on. Also you can short bank stocks whose main profile is mortgage lending, also you can just short the Hong Kong stock market as a whole. I think the real deal is the forex trade.
Kyle, I enjoy these interviews, but more your financial expertise! I Really enjoyed your interview with Miles, the Chinese businessman. I still have Major questions, about his allegiance and motives...Keep up the Great interviews, Very enlightening!
What are your thoughts on the proposal for Hong Kong to purchase the London Stock Exchange? This is going to tie UK's money with Hong Kong. My opinion is that this is a long term bad deal for the global economy.
See no reason it cannot defend the peg at expense of economic deterioration. When hibor can go up to 300%, you won’t attack the peg, but other assets, which HKMA wont care
Now: HKD -> USD peg Soon: HKD -> RMB -> USD managed exchange. All HKD deposits overnight will be converted to RMD and entire system in HK will be subject to capital controls. Thank daddy Xi!!
I am not a financial person and I need to re watch this video however, I do think China is acting to shore up this problem. He said China needs money to maintain stability that they don't have but what they do have is a lot of very rich billionaires and it seems to me that they are using their money for government purposes like example of what just happened with Alibaba and it's owner
In the end he goes "Well, there you have it!". Except we don't. He didn't say what the investment idea was. He didn't say how to trade it. He didn't say how to put the trade on or even what it is.
Ok, the HK dollar is set to crash as the reserves to fight it off are dwindling. The wealthy in HK are fleeing wholesale due to CCP pending Iron Fist rule. The banks are way over-leveraged in over-priced Realestate due in part with artificially low rates. The whole place is a huge house of cards with a hurricane on the way. So what is the investment advice? Short the HK dollar? Invest in US Treasuries as they run to the US dollar?
US treasuries are just as much of a ponzi scheme as the HK dollar. Almost the entire world economy is a ponzi scheme waiting to collapse. Gold, guns and ammo seems like a good bet.
2019.9.1China Mainland netizens hot topics: the CCP- Hebei province ,Provincial Councillors "Liqiu Zhu " United Hebei province District Court, using mafia means , Threats,intimidation,many students and families pay Huge service charges for her private company which Illegal operation in the National Public Schools. Despicable means ,turn off water and power suply, False invoice fraud，Administrative intervention and bribery, make the Law and courts service for her personal company and united national pubilc shool , Forced students to live in their Shabby and polluting"room" WITH Presidential Suite Spending. nakedly declaring the CCP Provincial governments like Taiwan and the rights holders “”Illegal organizations and anti-people” Essence，The investigation team joined the incident，Cover-up and circumvention once again, Public anger boils over 天价学生宿舍幕后老板"朱立秋-ZHU LI QIU":现任河北政协常委 网易新闻 天价宿舍调查:幕后老板“”朱立秋-ZHU LI QIU “”曾为全国人大代表 新浪新闻
Very interesting discussion. As Kyle said earlier, HK's ports once operated 30% of China's shipping business -- today, it's down to 2%. HK's GDP today is $341.4 billion while China's is $12.2 trillion -- which is only about 2.8% of China's value. Thus, if HK goes south, mostly those in HK will be effected.
Yes, U.S knew it couldn't do anything about the chinese communist's. Nice! LOL. this is a checkmate for democracy U.S is letting hong kong's ship sink......
Hong kong economies is back by nothing ! The properties market is highly speculated and is ridiculous high , it is even more expensive than London , New york and Tokyo makes no sense.
First, everyone needs to read Peter Zeihan's new book, "DisUnited Nations". Many interviews on YT. This gives the long term historical, geographic and military background for all over the world. Gives insight into what Bass is talking about. Second, as to China, their agriculture is so poor and worn out it is impossible for them to feed their population without massive imports. How do they buy imports without exporting? And this necessity is what brought about the debt crisis.
Great interview. Can you bring Kyle back for an update! Six months to go in his time-frame...and the USD/HKD just had a little jump on Friday....It could be about to unfold.
What are you talking about? He literally told everyone to sell their homes in 2007. This is the most liquid macro trade in since the dollar was taken off of the gold standard... Hes obviously already positioned himself but thats his fiduciary obligation to his investors. Watch and learn fam.
@@chickeninasal4381 You know nothing about me other than a comment or two on a youtube video, you're delirious. I was just condensing information, He was bearish housing... made billions. Tons of regular people had 3 or 4 houses in highly leveraged real estate areas... but you're going to have to find someone else to cry about being poor to.. Maybe you should start your own hedge fund if you know better than Kyle Bass bro. My point stands that Blind skepticism only hurts the skeptic.. if you are intelligent enough to be skeptic you should be intelligent enough to read data for yourself also.. this trade is much bigger than kyle bass its not like hes fading/lying to the market here.. Just chill on the Dunning-Kruger stuff man. Learn some things.
@@chickeninasal4381 i sold at the top of the market after owning for about 7 yrs. did fsbo at 1.8% fee, i made 12.5 times my down payment. vacationed, traveled and day traded for 2 yrs. after which the housing market was still going down. i then got a job, housing and coasted in to finally retirement. Barrett L is right about listening and learning beyond your own inherent belief system.
Wait a minute.. Wasn't this guy talking about the collapse of Japan for the last 3 to 4 years and betting on it. Now he's talking about the collapse of China. What happened to his Japan angle? Forget about past predictions and Onward Ho ?
He mentions this at the end in the summary - along with China. His point is that no one gets them all right - fair enough. This one seems pretty significant.
@@samrolfe2563 The problem is his current pitch sounds just like his previous (failed) pitch. Are we better off rolling dice rather than listening to these gurus?
@@freddykrueger6571 Evidence is there for you to make your own assessment. He is simply presenting the basic facts - make your own mind up. He doesn't actually tell you what his final trades are. The absolute same can be said of Australia (mentioned in the piece). BOTH of these countries are defying gravity - both may continue to do so, but there is an absolute finality about the inevitability of both - they are completely and utterly overwhelmed with debt and entire consumed with FIRE economy - nothing can save them in the long term.
The real estate market in China and quality of construction in Chinese Construction is so bad in many cases it’s worthless and must be rebuilt-massive apartment blocks. The RMB is so over leveraged with even larger dark debt, including P2P is enormous-my internal information is from CCP tax office officials looking at ways to get out.
And he also doesn`t seem to understand that federal governments have printing presses. His argument is, who`s gonna buy all this government paper. The answer is....the government.
@@dutchymcdutch2553 I know...And Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe and Hungary. All the rare hyperinflation events. Then we look at the vast number of deflationary events. When people look at a country that lost WW1 and think it`s analogous to 2008 or 2019 America... Or a African country that`s run by a thug who`trying to cling to power. But if people like me say Bitcoin is the modern Tulipomania....well then. People say the analogy is false. Fact of the matter is Bass made one brilliant well timed call. All credit...and giant sack of cash to the winner. But how has he done against the indexes since then. I gamble on sports a lot. Everyone can have a good streak. Or a bad streak. But the grinder who makes consistent profits is the one with the good methodology.
Iran just announced to use chinese yuan in stead of US dollar for their oil and team up with other five countries to de dollar and promote yuans. So what you think about it Mr Kyle Bass?
This, the end of Hong Kong as the beacon of free enterprise in the east, will be a tragedy of epic proportions if Kyle is right. It's with sincere hospitality that I extend an invitation to all those of wealth and liberal spirit in Hong Kong. We in the USA would be better for your company and hope you choose to flee to our country.
But we don't want a mass importation of Chinese into my country. You have to do what other people do fight for your country. Like Europeans and white people did. A lot of people died fighting for freedom. Don't run to another people's country like cowards.
@@6530517 Just the way the whites fought for their counties in Rhodesia and South Africa, fought against communism, not against blacks, only to be beaten by the so called free world of US,UK EU, then left to rot. So yes, hard working free HK people should leave to wherever they can.
